customer lifetime value: bridging the gap between business ... › agenda › parallel session ›...
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David J. Fogarty, PhD
Benny T. Wong, CFA
Jing Lin, PhD
Xiaoyu Wu, PhD
Motong Qiao, PhD
Customer Lifetime Value: Bridging the Gap between
Business Analytics and Actuarial Science
Cigna Global Customer Value Management
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Common Actuarial Measures of a Portfolio Profitability
Profitability
(Fogarty, 2014)
ANP(Annualized
New Premium)
GWP(Gross Written
Premium)
VNB(Value of New
Business)
EV(Embedded
Value)
total premium written and
assumed before deductions
for reinsurance and ceding
commissions
new business PV after-tax
statutory profits less the cost of
required capital
economic value of a life
insurance business based on
assumptions as to future
experience excluding
economic value attributable
to future new business
current in-force business
PV after-tax statutory
profits less the cost of
required capital
VIF(Value of In-
Force)
sum of 100% annualized first year
premiums before reinsurance ceded
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EMR or EHR (Electronic Health Record) contains the standard medical and clinical
data gathered in one provider’s office.
Electronic Medical Record (EMR)
• More medical data were captured
electronically since early 1970
(Hannan,1996).
• Medical and claim records are
electronically stored in database
format.
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Benefits of EMR
• Track data over time
• Identify patients who are due for
preventive visits and screenings
• Monitor how patients measure up
to certain parameters (e.g.,
vaccinations and blood pressure
readings)
• Improve overall quality of care in
practice
Rapid Growth of Electronic Medical Record
Percentage of Office-Based Physicians with Electronic Health
Record Systems: United States (Hsiao & Hing, 2012).
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Traditional retail banking
products
• Saving Accounts
• Checking Accounts
• Currency Accounts
• etc.
Customer centric financial
products
• Wealth Management
• Deposits
• Home Mortgages
• Credit Cards
• Loans
• etc.
Customer centric banking
• Customer demographics, buying behaviors and needs are changing and
evolving.
• Banks need a 360-degree view of each customer to target the right
products, cross-sell and adapt to customer’s changing needs.
Retail Banking Context
Customer Lifetime Value
(CLTV)
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Usage of CLTV for Credit Card Issuer
Customer Data Customer Segmentation
• Borrowing behaviour
• Payment behaviour
• State: inactive, transact,
revolve, delinquent and
default (Aeron, Bhaskar,
Sundararajan, Kumar, &
Moorthy, 2008)
𝐶𝐿𝑇𝑉 = 𝑡=1𝑇 𝐶𝑉𝑡 / 1 + 𝑑
𝑡 − Attritionloss
Contributed Value (CV) of a credit card customer
= Revenue from revolving period
+ Revenue from delinquency period
+ Revenue from borrowings
- Cost of maintenance
- Cost of funds
- Loss due to default (Aeron et al., 2008)
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𝐶𝐿𝑇𝑉 =
𝑡=1
𝑛𝑅𝑡 − 𝐶𝑡(1 + 𝑑)(𝑡−0.5)
𝐶𝐿𝑇𝑉 =
𝑡=0
𝑛𝑚𝑡 ∗ 𝑟𝑡(1 + 𝑑)𝑡
𝐶𝐿𝑇𝑉 =𝑚 ∗ 𝑟
(1 + 𝑑 − 𝑟)
------ (Berger & Nasr, 1998)
------ (Zhang, Dixit, & Friedmann, 2010)
------ (Jain & Singh, 2002)
1)
2)
3)
𝑅𝑡
𝐶𝑡
𝑛
𝑑
𝑚𝑡
𝑟𝑡
= Revenue in period t
= Total cost of generating the revenue 𝑅𝑡 in period t
= Total number of anticipated periods
= Discount rate
= Gross margin in period t
= Retention rate in period t
Generalized CLTV Models in the Literature
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CLTV in Insurance Industry
Insurance companies are also advancing beyond traditional measures and
moving toward making decisions with CLTV (Fogarty, 2014).
Insurance companies reveal their applications of CLTV.
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𝑃𝑡 = Profit after tax and reinsurance𝑑 = Discount rate𝐶𝐶𝑡−1 = Cost of capital𝑖 = Return on assets backing the capitaltax = Corporate tax rate
𝑪𝑳𝑻𝑽 = 𝒕=𝟏𝒏 𝑹𝒕
𝟏+𝒅 (𝒕−𝟎.𝟓)− 𝒕=𝟏𝒏 𝑪
𝒕
(𝟏+𝒅)(𝒕−𝟎.𝟓)
VIF vs. CLTV
VIF and CLTV are conceptually the same.
𝑑 = Discount rate𝑅𝑡= Revenue in period t𝐶𝑡= Total cost in period t
𝑽𝑰𝑭 = 𝑷𝑽𝑭𝑷 − 𝑪𝒐𝑪
= 𝒕=𝟏𝒏 𝑷
𝒕
(𝟏+𝒅)(𝒕−𝟎.𝟓)− 𝒕=𝟏𝒏 𝑪𝑪𝒕−𝟏∗[𝒅−𝒊∗(𝟏−𝒕𝒂𝒙)]
(𝟏+𝒅)(𝒕−𝟎.𝟓)
(Jain & Singh, 2002)
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1. CLTV focuses on the
customer as the influencer of
a company’s profitability
rather than the products and
service-lines.
2. CLTV can be applied to
evaluate which new and
existing customers to target
and how much the firm can
spend on acquiring and
retaining them (Cokins, 2010;
Fogarty, 2014).
New Aspects Brought by CLTV
A small portion of
customers are
generating most
profit!
-15,000
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
CLT
V
Decile
Customers Ranked in Order of Ascending CLTV by Deciles
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Definition:
1. Expected premium revenue in next 36 months
2. Expected future cost in next 36 months
• Operational cost
• Expected insurer-paid medical cost
3. Probability that customer will stay in book in each month (of future 36 months)
4. CLTV is the summation of the above results
𝐶𝑢𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑟 𝐿𝑖𝑓𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑉𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒4 = 𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑚𝑖𝑢𝑚1 − 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡2
𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒× 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒3
A US Medical Insurance Portfolio
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A US Medical Insurance Portfolio
Past Premium
Records
Past Medical Claims
Customer Interaction Data
Policy InformationCustomer
Data
Customer Data Elements for CLTV Projection
Customer Demographic and Residence
Geographic Data
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One year actual lapse rate 27.13%
One year predicted lapse rate 28.28%
Difference 1.15%
Graph 1: Persistency model validation
CLTV Component Validation ─ Persistency Rate
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
Actual Lapsed Rate Predicted Lapsed Rate
Cumulative Lapse Rate Comparison
Actual vs. Predicted
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One year actual medical cost $ 4100
One year predicted medical
cost $ 4060
Difference $ -40
Graph 2: Insurer–paid medical cost
model validation
• Age: 23~35
• Male
• Married
• 2~4 children
Insight:
• Past medical data are good predictors.
• Cross-validated with Medical Loss
Ratio (MLR)
CLTV Component Validation ─ Insurer-Paid Medical Cost
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Actual Medical Cost Predicted Medical Cost
12 Months Medical Cost Comparison
Actual vs. Predicted
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Understand the potential
value of customers
Customize different
strategies
Offer insights in managing
existing customer
base
Save acquisition
and retention efforts
Benefits of CLTV Application
Maximize
Customer
Profitability
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• Aeron, H., Bhaskar, T., Sundararajan, R., Kumar, A., & Moorthy, J. (2008). A metric for customer lifetime value of credit card customers. Journal of Database Marketing & Customer Strategy Management, 15(3), 153-168.
• Berger, P. D., & Nasr, N. I. (1998). Customer lifetime value: marketing models and applications. Journal of interactive marketing, 12(1), 17-30.
• Cokins, G. (2010). How to measure and manage customer value and customer profitability [White paper]. Retrieved from http://www.sas.com/en_us/whitepapers/how-to-measure-and-manage-customer-value-105639.html
• Fogarty, D. J. (2014). Customer Lifetime Value: Bridging the Gap between Business Analytics and Actuarial Science. Unpublished manuscript.
• Hannan, T. J. (1996). Electronic medical records. Health Informatics: An Overview, 133-148.
• Hsiao, C. J., & Hing, E. (2012). Use and Characteristics of Electronic Health Record Systems Among Office-based Physician Practices, United States, 2001-2012. US Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics.
• Jain, D., & Singh, S. S. (2002). Customer lifetime value research in marketing: A review and future directions. Journal of interactive marketing, 16(2), 34-46.
• Zhang, J. Q., Dixit, A., & Friedmann, R. (2010). Customer loyalty and lifetime value: an empirical investigation of consumer packaged goods. The Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice, 18(2), 127-140.
References