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Customer Demand Management
Jeremy CaplinEnergy Forecasting Manager
Customer Demand Management
What is CDM
How we forecast CDM
How we estimate actual CDM
Review of year to date
CDM
TriadAvoidance
Red ZoneManagement
Demand SideResponse /
Reserve
What is CDM
Red Zone Management
DNO Distribution Use of System (DUoS) charges make uparound 12% of electricity costs for Industrial and Commercial
customers.
Charges are based on Red, Amber and Green Time Zones.Red Zone is typically weekday 1600 – 1930.
Charges in the Red Zone are significantly higher than in theAmber and Green Zones.
Charges are intended to restrict peak time usage of half hourlyIndustrial and Commercial customers.
What is CDM
CDM
TriadAvoidance
Specific Days
Red ZoneManagement
Daily / WeeklyPattern
Demand SideResponse /
Reserve
Instructed byControl Room
What is CDM
Forecast
TriadAvoidance
ManualAdjustment
Red ZoneManagement
Implicit incorrelations
Demand SideResponse /
ReserveNot Forecast
How we forecast CDM
Day - 1
• Initial forecast at1700 based ondemand forecast
• Not included inpublishedforecast
Day – 1
• Forecast updatedbased on DP
• Included in BMReports from2100
Day
• Updated inmorning followingreceipt of TriadWarnings
How we forecast Triad Avoidance
• National Grid has no visibility of behaviour of DNOcustomers
• Demand forecast based on correlations over last three /four years
• Correlations include behaviour of DNO customers
• Assumes small changes in behaviour and volume yearon year
How we forecast Red Zone
Actual
DemandProfile
Compare withCDM free day
Deviation fromModel
Deviations withno other
explanation
How we estimate actualTriad Avoidance
Compareprofile withequivalentday
TriadAvoidanceprofiles flatover DP
How we estimate actualTriad Avoidance
Adjustprofiles forembedded(wind andPV)generation
How we estimate actualTriad Avoidance
Difference inprofiles canbe attributedto TriadAvoidance
How we estimate actual Triad Avoidance
Offsethistoric dayprofile tomatchobservedprofile asclosely aspossible
How we estimate actual Triad Avoidance
Can be hardto judge bestfit
How we estimate actualTriad Avoidance
Combinevalues fromprofilecomparisonwith valuefrom modeldeviation toestimateactual TriadAvoidance
Art notscience!
How we estimate actualTriad Avoidance
Review
Increase inTriad
Avoidance
More frequent
Larger Volume
Difficult Year toForecast
Higher costexposure forcustomers
Review of Year to Date
[Insert chart]
CDM (Triad Avoidance)events increasing innumber each year
35 Events this year,up from 24 last year
Events also increasingin magnitude
Review of Year to Date
TriadAvoidancehas reducedpeak loadson system
Similardemandlevels acrosswinter leadto severalperiods ofTriadAvoidance
Review of Year to Date
• Abnormally warm weather increased difficultly inforecasting Triads
• Increased cost exposure to Triads for customers /large savings for those who get it right
• Triad Avoidance seen more frequently and at highervolumes
• Triad Avoidance lead to reduced peak loads on system
Conclusion
