Current Surveys of Current Surveys of Manufacturing and ServicesManufacturing and Services

An Overview of the Manufacturing and Services Programs

Ron FarrarService Sector Statistics Division18 June 2011

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Overview of Manufacturing and Overview of Manufacturing and Services Topic AreasServices Topic Areas

Importance of Manufacturing and Services Estimates Annual Surveys Quarterly/Monthly Surveys Survey Processing Benchmarking Data Dissemination Major Data Users Story ideas Wrap Up – strengths and weaknesses

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Importance of Manufacturing and Importance of Manufacturing and Service industry estimatesService industry estimates

Provide the most comprehensive and timely data on Manufacturing and Services activity in the US

Significant inputs into estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Estimates influence financial markets and affect business decisions

Provide indications of current economic trends

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Finance Numbers Reveal the RecessionFinance Numbers Reveal the Recession

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“Nearly 50 cents of every dollar spent on health care in this country is spent by federal, state or local government.”

Rep. Paul Ryan

“The Path to Prosperity”

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Demo data

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Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)

Annual since 1949 covering manufacturing sector (NAICS 31-33)

Published in years not covered by Economic Census

Sample of 50,000 manufacturing establishments

Supplemented by 200,000 administrative payroll records

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Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)

Uses Gross Domestic Product estimates Index of Industrial Production Producer Price Index weighting To benchmark other manufacturing surveys

M3 MECS Current Industrial Reports (CIRs)

General purpose business indicator

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Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)

Mandatory survey, establishment based High response rate Extensive mail and telephone follow-up Reviewed by staff of approximately 75

professional statisticians Publication – Thanksgiving of the following year

i.e. 2010 ASM published Thanksgiving 2011

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Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)

Data available Industries at the six-digit NAICS level (1998-present) Industries at SIC level (1949-1996) Approximately 70 data items covering

Shipments Costs Employment Inventories Capital Expenditures

Approximately 1500 product classes

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Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM)

Data Available (continued) State industry data (4-digit NAICS) for major items

where significant (> 950) employment exists Data available on American Fact Finder (AFF);

located on www.census.gov under “Annual Economic Surveys”

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Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3)(M3)

Conducted monthly since 1957

NAICS Sector 31-33 (Manufacturing)

Based upon data from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments

Voluntary survey

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Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3)(M3)

Data Items Collected Shipments New Orders (net of cancellations) Unfilled Orders End-of-Month Inventories Materials and Supplies Work-in-process Finished Goods Inventories

Advance Report Highly Sensitive Indicator Published about 18 working days following the reference month

Full Report Includes durable and non-durable manufacturing estimates Published about 23 working days following the reference month

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Service Annual Survey (SAS)Service Annual Survey (SAS)

NAICS Sectors: 22, Utilities 48/49, Transportation & Warehousing 51, Information 52, Finance & Insurance 53, Real Estate & Rental & Leasing 54, Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 56, Administrative & Support and Waste Management &

Remediation Services 61, Educational Services 62, Health Care and Social Assistance 71, Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation 81, Other Services (except Public Administration)

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Service Annual Survey (SAS)Service Annual Survey (SAS)

Sample of 70,000 companies Mandatory survey with high response Estimates benchmarked to the Economic Census Data items collected

Revenue E-commerce Revenue Expenses

Data typically released in December of the year following the reference period, i.e. December 2010 for 2009 survey data

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Quarterly Services Survey (QSS)Quarterly Services Survey (QSS)

Conducted Quarterly since 2004 First new Census Bureau indicator in over

30 years. NAICS Sectors: Coverage equal to SAS Sample of 17,000 companies Sub-sample of SAS Voluntary Survey

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Quarterly Services Survey (QSS)Quarterly Services Survey (QSS)

Data Items Collected

Revenue Class of Customer (Sectors 51, 54, & 56)

Business Household Government

Total discharges and number of in-patient days (hospitals)

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Survey ProcessingSurvey Processing

Mailout (includes faxed questionnaires) Data Collection

Completed questionnaires are mailed or faxed back by respondents.

Internet reporting for M3, QSS, ASM and SAS. Use of online reporting has grown steadily in recent years.

Fax reminders and telephone follow-up for delinquent respondents and edit failures.

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Survey ProcessingSurvey Processing

Tabulation Data edits identify cases that are inconsistent

with previous reporting or are growing or declining faster than similar cases.

Put all responses on a calendar basis. Impute for non-response based on response

data of similar cases. same approximate sales size same kind of business

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BenchmarkingBenchmarking

Once a year we benchmark the QSS estimates to the SAS estimates and the M3 to the ASM.

The sampling error of the estimates is lower in the annual surveys. Annual samples are larger than the quarterly

samples. Annual samples are mandatory and have better

response. Every 5 years we benchmark the quarterly and

annual estimates to the Economic Census.

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Data DisseminationData Dissemination

Press Release Manufacturer’s Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) Quarterly Services Survey Service Annual Survey

Electronic American Fact Finder for ASM Census Bureau website: www.census.gov tables in Excel format White House Briefing Room CIDR for indicator data releases

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Data demo

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Major Data UsersMajor Data Users

Leading Economic Indicators – used by policy makers, investors, large companies, consultants, etc.

Users Federal Reserve Board – economic trends Bureau of Economic Analysis- GDP Council of Economic Advisors – economic analysis Large service Firms – economic conditions and market analysis Financial Markets – Wall Street and other markets Consultants Market Research Firms Academia

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Story Ideas – Manufacturing & ServicesStory Ideas – Manufacturing & Services

Example Headlines Newspaper Publishers down 26.4% since 2005 Motion Picture Industry down 11.1% in first quarter 2011

Largest single quarter drop since 2006 The 11.1% trend reflects seasonal adjustment

Dentists up 9.1% in first quarter 2011 This follows roughly two years of declines

Total number of production workers in manufacturing down 4.5% since 1997 Aircraft industry runs opposite to this trend; up 13.3%

Kilowatt hours per employee in manufacturing up 36.8% since 1997

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Story Ideas – Manufacturing & ServicesStory Ideas – Manufacturing & Services

Example Headlines Photofinishing down 48.7% since 2001

Decline decelerated to just ( -2.7% ) between 2008 and 2009

Revenue for Casinos up 47% since 2001, declined slightly ( -2.7% ) between 2008 and 2009 Grew 9.1% in first quarter 2011

Architectural services rebounds from lagging 2009 and early 2010 with 12.5% year to year increase for 2010/11

One of the last service industries to rebound from the recession

The value of manufacturers new orders decreased 1.2% between March & April 2011, having increased 3.8% from February to March

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Wrap-up and OverviewWrap-up and Overview

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Quarterly/Monthly Estimates

Estimates at a higher level and include core data items

Estimates available shortly after reference period

Voluntary response

Small sample size

Less reliable

Annual Estimates

Detailed estimates that include additional data items beyond core items

Estimates not as timely

Mandatory response

Larger sample size

More reliable

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Thank You!Thank You!

• Website address: www.census.gov

• Contact Information

U.S. Census Bureau

301-763-3030

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