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CSP Technologies, Cost, Value and Potential
Frank Wouters
Jordan
July 2017
Structure
• Introduction to CSP
• Storage
• System Value
• Recent developments
• Jordan
3
What is Concentrating Solar Power?
Source: DLR
4
What is Concentrating Solar Power?
Source: DLR
Concentrating Solar Irradiation
Source: Volker Quaschning
Parabolic Trough Central Tower
6
Dish Sterling Linear Fresnel
CSP with Gas Booster
Source: Masdar
Solar Integrated Combined Cycle
Source: SkyFuel
CSP with Thermal Energy Storage
Source: PSA
Value of CSP with Storage
Source: NREL
energy.gov/sunshotenergy.gov/sunshot
energy.gov/sunshotenergy.gov/sunshot
Measuring the Value of CSP in the Power System
Mark S. Mehos, Program Manager, CSP NREL
energy.gov/sunshotenergy.gov/sunshot
CAISO
Analysis of Operational and Capacity Value of CSP in California
Available at http://www.nrel.gov/publications
energy.gov/sunshotenergy.gov/sunshot14
Operational and Capacity Value
• operational value represents the avoided costs of conventional
generation and includes fuel costs, start-up costs, variable
operation and maintenance costs, and emission costs.
• capacity value reflects the ability of PV or CSP-TES to avoid the
cost of building new conventional thermal generators in systems
that need capacity in response to growing energy demand or plant
retirements.
energy.gov/sunshotenergy.gov/sunshot
Analysis – Operational Value of CSP
Lowest solar multiples (lower annual capacity factors) yield
the highest operational system value
SM = Solar Multiple = oversize factor ofsolar field in comparison to a plant without thermal storage
energy.gov/sunshotenergy.gov/sunshot
CSP integrated with thermal energy storage maintains
high capacity value with increasing RE penetration, while
capacity value of PV collapses
Capacity Credit (%)
CSP-TES
(with > 3 Hrs Storage)PV
33% RPS Scenario 92.2% 22%
40% RPS Scenario 96.6% 3.4%
Analysis – Capacity Value
NREL 2014
energy.gov/sunshotenergy.gov/sunshot
Analysis – Total Valuation
Relative value of CSP is 5ct per kWh greater than PV in the
33% scenario and about 6ct per kWh greater in the 40%
scenario
energy.gov/sunshotenergy.gov/sunshot18
Key Points
• CSP with dispatchable thermal energy storage provides and maintains both operational (fuel and emissions) and capacity (reliability) benefits to regional grids
• This is especially true at high penetrations of variable renewable technologies such as PV and wind
• CSP can support additional generation of variable technologies due to its flexibility relative to inflexible baseload coal generation.
Cost vs. Value?!
Source: Fraunhofer ISE, 2016
CCGT 30$ Diesel/oil 30$ Diesel/oil 40$ Nuclear CSP 8h PV 1800 Wind 2500
CAPEX $/kW 1000 150 150 6000 4500 1000 1500
Interest % 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
Var. OPEX $/kWh 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0 0.015
Fixed OPEX $/kW 22 30 30 200 30 30 5
Output kWh/a 7000 7000 7000 7500 4200 1800 2500
Fuel prices $/kWh 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.005 0 0 0
eff % 55% 35% 35% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Degradation % 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
1. DEWA effect
2. Dispatchability
3. Apples with apples
1.
Recent Developments
• Dubai’s 200 MW twin tower tender world record result:
9.45cts/kWh
• Dubai has low DNI of ~1900 kWh/m2/yr and no concessional finance available
• Some characteristics of the project:
• CSP tower technology (2x100MW towers) with molten salts;
• Minimum of 8 full load hours of TES
• Tariff structure designed to complement PV generation profile: Non-Operational Hours from 10:00 to 16:00
• IPP, but DEWA will own 51%
• 25 year PPA, currency pegged to USD
20
Potential for Jordan
• Assuming a 200MW CSP solar tower project with >8hr storage in Ma’an, same specs as Dubai:
• DNI = 2798 kWh/m2/yr
• Assuming CAPEX and financing conditions the same as Dubai
• Implies LCOE of 6.3 $ct/kWh