7/29/2019 CRISIS WATCH: Conflict Risk Alerts

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crisis-watch-conflict-risk-alerts 1/12

 A monthly bulletin by Crisis Group on current and potential conicts around the world

CrisisWatch

Crisis Group is an independent, non-prot, non-governmental organisation, with some 140 staff members on ve continents, working

through eld-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conict. Crisis Group’s approach is grounded in

eld research. Teams of political analysts are located within or close by countries at risk of outbreak, escalation or recurrence of violent

conict. Based on information and assessments from the eld, Crisis Group produces regular analytical reports containing practical

recommendations targeted at key international decision-takers, and backed up with high-level advocacy. Crisis Group is chaired by

former U.S. Ambassador and Vice Chairman of Hills & Company Thomas R. Pickering, and its President and Chief Executive is former

UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour.

  summarises briey developments during the previous month

in some 70 situations of current or potential conict, listed

alphabetically by region, providing references and links to

more detailed information sources (all references mentioned

are hyperlinked in the electronic version of this bulletin);

assesses whether the overall situation in each case has, dur-

ing the previous month, signicantly deteriorated, signicantly

improved, or on balance remained more or less unchanged;

  alerts readers to situations where, in the coming month, there

is a particular risk of new or signicantly escalated conict,

or a particular conict resolution opportunity (noting that in

some instances there may in fact be both); and

summarises Crisis Group’s reports and brieng papers that

have been published in the last month.

CrisisWatch is compiled by Crisis Group’s Brussels Research

Unit, drawing on multiple sources including the resources of our

some 140 staff members across ve continents, who already

report on some 60 of the situations listed here. Comments

and suggestions can be sent to crisiswatch@crisisgroup.org.

To search past issues of CrisisWatch visit our databases and

resources page at www.crisisgroup.org.

February 2013  Trends

Deteriorated Situations Improved Situations

Unchanged Situations

March 201 Watchlist

Confict Risk Alerts

Yemen (p.11 )

Confict ResolutionOpportunities

115 1March2013

Bangladesh (p.5 )

Guinea (p.4 )

Lebanon (p.10 )

North Korea (p.5 )

Syria (p.10 )

Tunisia (p.12 )

Zimbabwe (p.3 )

 Afghanistan (p.5 ), Algeria (p.11 ), Armenia (p.8 ), Azerbaijan (p.8 ), Bahrain (p.10 ), Bosnia (p.7 ),

Burundi (p.2 ), Cameroon (p.2 ), Central African Republic (p.2 ), Chad (p.2 ), China/Japan (p.5 ),

Colombia (p.9 ), Côte d’Ivoire (p.3 ), Cyprus (p.8 ), Democratic Republic of Congo (p.2 ),

Ecuador (p.9 ), Egypt (p.11 ), Eritrea (p.2 ), Ethiopia (p.2 ), Georgia (p.8 ), Guatemala (p.9 ), Guinea-

Bissau (p.4 ), Haiti (p.9 ), India (non-Kashmir) (p.6 ), Indonesia (p.6 ), Iran (p.10 ), Iraq (p.11 ), Israel/ 

Occupied Palestinian Territories (p.9 ), Jordan (p.11 ), Kashmir (p.6 ), Kazakhstan (p.4 ), Kenya (p.2 ),

Kosovo (p.7 ), Kyrgyzstan (p.4 ), Libya (p.11 ), Macedonia (p.8 ), Madagascar (p.3 ), Mali (p.4 ),

Mauritania (p.11 ), Mexico (p.9 ), Moldova (p.8 ), Morocco (p.12 ), Myanmar (p.6 ), Nagorno-Karabakh

(Azerbaijan) (p.8 ), Nepal (p.6 ), Niger (p.4 ), Nigeria (p.4 ), North Caucasus (Russia) (p.8 ), Pakistan (p.6 ),

Philippines (p.7 ), Rwanda (p.2 ), Saudi Arabia (p.11 ), Senegal (p.4 ), Somalia (p.3 ), Somaliland (p.3 ),

South Sudan (p.3 ), Sri Lanka (p.6 ), Sudan (p.3 ), Tajikistan (p.5 ), Thailand (p.7 ), Timor-Leste (p.7 ),

Turkey (p.8 ), Uganda (p.3 ), Uzbekistan (p.5 ), Venezuela (p.9 ), Western Sahara (p.12 ), Yemen (p.11 )

BoardofTrusteesChair

Thomas Pickering

President and CEO

Louise Arbour

 Vice-Chairs

 Ayo Obe

Ghassan Salamé

Executive Committee

Morton Abramowitz

Cheryl Carolus

Maria Livanos Cattaui

Yoichi FunabashiFrank Giustra

Mark Malloch-Brown

Moisés Naím

George Soros

Pär Stenbäck

Ko Annan

Nahum Barnea

Samuel Berger

Emma Bonino

Micheline Calmy-Rey

Wesley Clark

Sheila Coronel

Mark Eyskens

Nabil FahmyLykke Friis

Joschka Fischer

Jean-Marie Guéhenno

Carla Hills

Lena Hjelm-Wallén

Mo Ibrahim

Igor Ivanov

 Asma Jahangir

Wadah Khanfar

Wim Kok

Ricardo Lagos

Joanne Leedom-Ackerman

Lalit Mansingh

Benjamin Mkapa

Laurence ParisotKarim Raslan

Paul Reynolds

Javier Solana

Liv Monica Stubholt

Lawrence Summers

Wang Jisi

Wu Jianmin

Lionel Zinsou

Chairmen Emeriti

Martti Ahtisaari

George J. Mitchell

President Emeritus

Gareth Evans

7/29/2019 CRISIS WATCH: Conflict Risk Alerts

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crisis-watch-conflict-risk-alerts 2/12

2

rebels on implementation o March 2009 peace agreement.Clash between rival M23 actions 24 Feb reportedly lef 10dead in Rutshuru region; M23 rebels 27 Feb accused leaderJean-Marie Runiga o treason and embezzlement, replaced

him with General Sultani Makenga. Several Mayi Mayi groups9-17 Feb attacked villages close to Lubumbashi and Pweto,Katanga Province. Head o UN mission Meece 21 Feb toldUNSC o concern at re-emergence o armed groups, reported“worrisome security developments” in N Katanga.

  “African leaders sign DR Congo peace deal”, Al Jazeera, 25 Feb. 2013.

Rwanda President Kagame 17 Feb tasked 3 senior RwandanPatriotic Front members with developing “transition ormula”or end o his mandate in 2017, quelling rumours he will seek urther term. Kagame 23 Feb signed DRC peace ramework.

  “Kagame welcomes the signing of DRC peace agreement”, Rwanda

Focus, 24 Feb. 2013.

Horn of Africa

Eritrea President Awerki 1 Feb declined to give customary annual speech in coastal city Massawa or rst time in 21 years;8 Feb broke silence over 21 Jan “mutiny”, said no reason toworry. Arrests over incident continued early Feb. Inormationministry 5 Feb banned Eritreans rom providing inormationon mutiny and protests to Al Jazeera, subsequently blockedchannel. Eritrean ootball team that deected in Dec 2012 givenasylum in Uganda.

  “The coup asco in Eritrea and its scanty support”, IndepthAfrica, 26 Feb.

2013.

Ethiopia Govt 5 Feb aired “Holy War Movement” documentary on Islamic extremism, included conessions by Muslim leadersarrested Aug 2012 and currently on trial or leading peaceulprotests; deence lawyer said conessions compelled by orce.Some 90,000 Muslims protested 15 Feb outside Grand Anwarmosque against documentary amid ear lm will prejudicetrial, delegitimise peaceul Muslim demonstrations, stokereligious discord. Rebel Ogaden National Liberation Front18 Feb warned Canada’s Arica Oil Corporation againstexploration in east, said area unsae, operations should behalted until peace agreement with govt reached.

  “Rebels threaten Canadian oil company”, Sudan Tribune , 18 Feb. 2013.

Kenya Ahead o presidential polls scheduled or 4 March, HighCourt 15 Feb ruled that only Supreme Court has jurisdictionto decide eligibility o ICC indictees Uhuru Kenyatta andWilliam Ruto to run, leaving both ree to contest elections;petition led to bring issue beore Supreme Court. Chie Justice Willy Mutunga 20 Feb said he, along with other judgesand ambassadors, had received death threats signed “MungikiVeteran Group. Kenya Sovereignty Deence Squad” ahead o ruling. All 8 presidential candidates 11 Feb and 25 Feb took part in televised debates ollowing initial exclusion o Sanacandidate Paul Muite and Alliance or Real Change candidateMohammed Abduba Dida. AU envoy and ormer UNSG KoAnnan 23 Feb warned o election-related violence. Somali

militant group Al-Shabaab 27 Feb warned o “long, gruesomewar” ahead o elections. 7 killed 21 Feb in attack on mosque inNE near Dadaab reugee camp.

  “Kenya’s presidential debates plagued by half-answers and veiled

attacks”, Guardian , 26 Feb. 2013.

 Africa

Central Africa

Burundi President o opposition National Council or Deenceo Democracy (CNDD) 11 Feb announced plan to returnrom exile; president o opposition Movement or Solidarity and Democracy (MSD) early Feb also announced intention toreturn. Police 19 Feb used tear gas to disperse demonstrationagainst imprisonment o journalist Hassan Ruvakuki, jailedsince Nov 2011; protests held again 26 Feb. UN oce inBurundi (BINUB) mid-Feb announced elections roadmapworkshop to be held with govt and opposition 11-13 March.BINUB mandate extended to Feb 2014.

  “Land issues keep possibility of conict al ive”, IndepthAfrica, 4 Feb. 2013.

Cameroon 7 French tourists abducted rom Dabanga onborder with Nigeria 19 Feb by suspected Nigerian militants;captors demanded liberation o Islamist militants detained inCameroon and Nigeria, declared war against France or Maliintervention in video published 25 Feb. President Biya 27 Febset long-delayed date or Senate polls or 14 April.

  “French children kidnapped in Cameroon ‘shown in video’”, BBC, 26 Feb.

2013.

Central African Republic New transitional govt sworn in 3 Febollowing several days o negotiations: strategic oreign, justiceand security ministries remain under control o PresidentBozizé ’s party; Seleka rebel group leader Michel Djotodia

named deence minister. Rebels 25 Feb threatened to resumeghting i Bozizé ails to implement Jan Libreville peaceagreement. NGOs, UN mid-month reported ongoing violence,displacement in areas under Seleka control including Bambaritown and Mobaye, rom which some 10,000 reportedly ed7-13 Feb. Connement o rebels to barracks scheduled to begin24 Feb delayed due to logistics, dissent within Seleka. Bozizé 14Feb met with Chad President Deby on sidelines o Community o Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD) summit (see Chad),discussed security in CAR.

  “Central African Republic rebels threaten to resume ghting”, Reuters, 25

Feb. 2013.

Chad West and Central Arican leaders 16 Feb met inN’Djamena at Sahel-Saharan regional CEN-SAD summit,discussed regional security. Chad widely criticised or hostingICC indictee Sudanese President Bashir at summit. PresidentDéby 27 Feb called or urgent deployment o regional troopsto Mali. 6,000-strong police orce suspended 4 Feb, policechie dismissed 6 Feb ollowing investigation that revealedirregularities including graf; Déby 14 Feb dismissed Interiorand Public Security Minister and Minister o TerritorialAdministration, accused o avouritism.

“Chad ministers red after entire police force suspended”, Reuters, 15

Feb. 2013.

Democratic Republic of Congo Regional leaders 23 Feb signed

Peace Framework Agreement under auspices o UN, AU,SADC and Great Lakes region; states agreed to abstain rominterering in internal aairs o neighbours, DRC agreed tostructural reorm. Govt 6 Feb signed agreement with M23

7/29/2019 CRISIS WATCH: Conflict Risk Alerts

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crisis-watch-conflict-risk-alerts 3/12

3

Somalia Senior Sala cleric killed 15 Feb in Garowe, Puntland;traditional elder killed in Dhusamareb 18 Feb; thousandspeaceully protested against Al-Shabaab 24 Feb. Suicidecar bomb attack targeting Puntland’s Deputy Police Chie 

killed 10 in Galkayo 11 Feb, Deputy Police Chie unharmed.Reported rape victim and journalist who reported on caseboth condemned to 1 year jail or “oending the honour o the State” 5 Feb sparking international criticism. PresidentSheikh 4 Feb reiterated govt ready or talks with Al-Shabaab i group renounces objectives. Security orces 3 Feb arrested 25suspected Al-Shabaab in Beledweyne, 12 Feb arrested 217 inMogadishu. Al-Shabaab clashes with AMISOM and govt orcescontinued including in Beledweyne, Janaale, Bairdoa, Gedoregion and Jowhar. AMISOM investigation reported 7 civilianskilled by AMISOM troops in Jan operation against Al-Shabaabin Leego village, Lower Shabelle region. Clash 23 Feb betweenpro-govt clan militias in Kismayo killed 11.

“Report: AU troops in Somalia killed 7 civilians”, AP, 11 Feb. 2013.

Somaliland Security orces 5 Feb arrested Somalianparliamentarian originally rom Somaliland, charged withtreason or being elected to oce in Somalia. Clan leaderRabi Yusu Abdullahi who participated in Aug 2012 talkswith Somalian govt arrested 12 Feb. President Silanyo 14Feb declared ready or talks with Somalia, conditioned onindependence or Somaliland. 3 Somaliland nationals workingor UNFPA abducted 3 Feb by Khatumoo militiamen. Sono Faisal Ali Warabe, chairman o opposition party Justiceand Welare Party, arrested 16 Feb or connections with Al-Shabaab. 2 suspected o involvement in murder o Mufi inGarowe (see Somalia) arrested 18 Feb in Las Anod, Sool.

  “Government on the ropes, turmoil ahead”, Somalilandpress, 13 Feb.2013.

South Sudan UN SRSG Johnson 19 Feb visited Jonglei state,urged communities to break cycle o violence ollowing 8Feb killing o over 100, abduction o unknown number inattack by rebels loyal to David Yau Yau. Lou Nuer and GreatAkobo Youth Association protested attack, called or greaterprotection, decisive action in disarming Murle. Govt accusedSudan o bombing disputed area Jaw, at border o Unity state,14 Feb; UN SRSG conrmed incident. SPLA early Feb accusedSudan o building up orces along disputed border, reinorcedUpper Nile state border garrisons. Amnesty Internationalaccused govt o rights violations, unlawul detentions.

“Fear stalks South Sudan, the world’s newest country”, BBC, 22 Feb.

2013.

Sudan Some 60 killed, 83 wounded in renewed tribal clashesover control o gold mines in north Darur. SLM-Juba Unity rebels 25 Feb claimed 17 soldiers killed in clashes in NorthDarur. ousands mid-month ed clashes between SudanArmed Forces (SAF) and Sudan Revolutionary Front rebelsin S Darur. SPLM-N clashes with armed orces in Blue Nilecontinued: SAF 18 Feb claimed Muu area seized, 66 rebelskilled; SPLM-N disputed claims, said rebels still held area and86 SAF killed; ghting in Kurmuk city ongoing. SAF 3 and 10Feb bombed SPLA positions in Bebnis, unocially contested

area. Oil Minister Awad al-Jaz 24 Feb visited Tehran to discussIranian investment. Armed orces denied SRF rebel claimsarmy harbouring Malian militants. Govt 10 Feb signed anotherceasere agreement with JEM splinter action.

  “Lawmaker raises alarm over ghting in Darfur”, New York Times , 25 Feb.

2013.

New Crisis Group Africa Report N°198, Sudan’s Spreading Conict (I): War 

in South Kordofan , 14 Feb. 2013. Only a comprehensive solution can end

Sudan’s vicious civil wars that are exacting a horrendous toll on the country

and its peoples.

Uganda Chie magistrate 4 Feb dismissed treason case againstGeneral Aronda Nyakairima, accused o threatening coup. 15MPs 21 Feb declared campaign to secede rom Uganda, createnew “Nile State”, ollowing allegations o corruption, misuse o Peace Recovery and Development Plan by PM’s oce.

“Uganda plans $180m port as new trade route”, Africa Review , 11 Feb.

2013.

Southern Africa

Madagascar National electoral commission (CENIT)

5 Feb announced legislative and presidential electionspostponed rom May to July; over 30 candidates expectedto contest presidential polls. South Arica’s highest court 5Feb rejected nal appeal by ormer president Ravalomananato have passport returned, eectively precluding him romattending regional meetings or returning to Madagascar. AUPeace and Security Council 16 Feb rejected request romgovt to reintegrate country into organisation. Tensions insouth continued: at least 10 killed, 1,200 cattle stolen, 153houses burned in clashes between Dahalo cattle-raiders and villagers in Amboasary-sud district.

“L’élection présidentielle reportée au mois de juillet”, RFI, 6 Feb. 2013.

Zimbabwe Increased raids on NGOs, conscation o documents and equipment, and allegations by police that“99% o NGOs engaged in regime change”, ollowing PresidentMugabe’s 15 Feb announcement constitutional reerendumto be held 16 March; month also saw reports o politically-motivated violence, intimidation. Police 19 Feb issued edictallowing them to seize radios, same day raided oces o independent election support group Crisis Coalition oralleged subversive materials. PM Tsvangirai 13 Feb saidpresidential polls expected July; VP Mujuru 24 Feb said only SADC observers will be allowed to monitor polls. EU 18 Feblifed targeted sanctions or 21 regime members; U.S. saidprepared to end targeted sanctions, re-engage in bilateralcollaboration i govt honours commitments or reorm and

implements election roadmap. 3 UN special rapporteurs calledor respect or undamental human rights in run-up to polls.

  “Tsvangirai says Zimbabwe elections expected in July”, Reuters, 13 Feb.

2013.

West Africa

Côte d’Ivoire Govt 14 Feb announced local elections set or 21April; opposition Ivorian Popular Front 15 Feb said party willboycott polls; UN SRSG Koenders 20 Feb advised authorities torevise electoral register. Govt 17 Feb ratied ICC Rome Statute;ICC Prosecutor Bensouda 19 Feb conrmed charges pending

against ormer president Gbagbo, said prosecution will show Gbagbo is responsible or killings o at least 166, rape o atleast 34. Police in Abidjan 15 Feb tear-gassed demonstrationdemanding liberation o Gbagbo. Clashes between FRCI and villagers in Aery, north o Abidjan, over extortion rackets

7/29/2019 CRISIS WATCH: Conflict Risk Alerts

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crisis-watch-conflict-risk-alerts 4/12

4

17-18 Feb lef 2 dead, 3 injured. Deputy Deence MinisterKo Ko said govt dismantlement o roadblocks mannedby “Dozo” traditional hunters began mid-month, 20,000 ex-combatants to be reintegrated in 2013. President Ouattara 20

Feb ordered Guinean military orces reportedly “occupying”Kpeaba village near border since late Jan to leave.

  “Un pays en reconstruction”, Jeune Afrique , 23 Feb. 2013.

Guinea Security situation deteriorated as govt-controlledelectoral commission (CENI) sped up preparations ahead o 12May polls, controversially validating choice o 2 companies toundertake revision o electoral lists, and leading to oppositionprotests in Conakry and other cities and 23 Feb oppositiondecision to pull out o electoral preparations. Govt 24 Febinvited political leaders to meet with President Condé 4 March;urther opposition protests 27 Feb lef at least 130 injured,including 68 security orces. General Namory Traoré 25 Febreplaced Kelea Diallo, who died in plane crash 11 Feb, as

armed orces Chie o Sta.  “Guinea opposition pulls out of May vote”, AFP, 24 Feb. 2013.

New Crisis Group Africa Report N°199, Guinea: A Way Out of the Elec- 

tion Quagmire , 18 Feb. 2013. Overdue legislative elections in Guinea could

rapidly degenerate into violence in the absence of consensus on electoral

procedures.

Guinea-Bissau Tense debate on revision o transition pact,including over creation o multi-party commission, whichPAIGC-controlled Assembly considers violation o sovereignty.New UN SRSG Ramos-Horta 21 Feb said transition cannotgo on indenitely, elections should be held beore Dec 2013;

also expressed concern over living conditions or armedorces. UNSC 23 Feb extended UNIOGBIS mandate or 3months until 30 April. Former nance minister José MárioVaz, associate o ousted PM Gomes Junior, arrested 4 Feb andplaced under investigation or misappropriation o unds.

  “Insecurity and impunity remain serious problems in Guinea-Bissau,

warns UN ofcial”, UN News Centre, 5 Feb. 2013.

Mali Military operations against Islamic militants in northcontinued: French air orce 3 Feb bombarded arms cachesand suspected Islamist training camps in Kidal area; clashesin Ioghas mountain range near Kidal lef 1 French soldier,20 suspected militants dead 18 Feb; 23 Chadian soldiers, 93militants killed in clashes near Tessalit 22-24 Feb. Suicidebomber killed at least 7 in Kidal 26 Feb. Senior AQIMcommander Abu Zeid, 40 other militants, reportedly killed 25Feb in Tigargara. Situation in Bamako also remained tense:green beret soldiers loyal to coup leader Captain Sanogo 8Feb clashed with red beret soldiers loyal to ousted PresidentTouré leaving at least 3 dead, 13 injured; PM Cissoko 15 Febsaid red beret corps will be restructured. Car bomb explodednear French military camp in Kidal 21 Feb; MUJAO claimedresponsibility or 8 and 10 Feb suicide attacks on Maliansoldiers in Gao. Fears o inter-ethnic backlash increasedollowing reports ethnic Tuareg and Arabs summarily executedby Malian army; Human Rights Watch urged govt to prosecutesoldiers suspected o rights violations. French President

Hollande 2 Feb visited country, said terrorism has beenpushed back but not deeated; 6 Feb asked UNSC to deploy UN peacekeepers. French FM Fabius 6 Feb said French orcesmay begin pull-out in March. EU 16 Feb said it will disburse

€20 million in addition to €250 million already earmarked;approved deployment o mission to train Malian army.

  “In Mali, the peril of guerrilla war looms”, New York Times , 16 Feb. 2013.

Nigeria Gunmen 16 Feb raided construction company campin Jama’re, Bauchi state, killing guard and kidnapping 7oreign workers; Boko Haram (BH) oshoot Ansaru claimedresponsibility. At least 1 killed, mosques, churches and homesburned 23 Feb in sectarian riots in Wukari town, Tarabastate. Several bombs exploded 28 Feb in Maiduguri where AllProgressives Congress holding meeting attended by severalhigh-level politicians. At least 6 reportedly killed 23 Feb insuspected BH attack in Ngalda, Yobe state. Attackers dressedas soldiers 21 Feb killed reported Christian amily o 10 inPlateau state. Military 1 Feb said 17 insurgents killed in attack on 2 BH training camps. Suspected BH 19 Feb kidnapped 7French tourists rom Cameroon, thought to be held in north(see Cameroon). Gunmen 8 Feb killed at least 10 in attack on

2 polio clinics in Kano ollowing Wazobia FM radio broadcastlinking vaccines to Western plot against Muslims; 2 Wazobia journalists and radical Islamist cleric arrested and charged withincitement to violence, station’s licence revoked.

“Britain warns against travel to northern Nigeria after Islamist raids”,

Reuters, 27 Feb. 2013.

Niger President Issouou 3 Feb called on France to widenoperations in order to rid Sahel region o terrorists, saidMalian rebel MNLA not representative o Tuareg community,should be disarmed. U.S. President Obama 22 Feb announced100 troops sent to Niger to set up surveillance drone base.

  “Le président nigérien Issoufou favorable au désarmement du MNLA”,

RFI, 5 Feb. 2013.

Senegal At least 5 killed in clashes ollowing raid on bank by Casamance separatist movement MFDC in Kaountine 3 Feb.Special tribunal to judge ormer Chadian dictator HissèneHabré ocially unveiled 8 Feb.

  “Au moins cinq morts lors d’une attaque en Casamance”, RFI, 2 Feb.

2013.

 Asia

Central Asia

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan 30 Jan signed common regionalair deence system with Russia, includes missile deence;also continued expanding cooperation with NATO memberstates, signing transit agreement with Italy 19 Feb. Hostedinternational nuclear talks with Iran late Feb.

“Astana registers diplomatic boost with Iran nuclear talks”, Eurasianet, 5

Feb. 2013.

Kyrgyzstan Parliament 21 Feb edged closer to renegingon terms o 2009 agreement with Canadian Centerra Goldcompany on Kumtor gold mine, which govt has claimed

is corrupt and unair, seeking compensation or allegedenvironmental damage. Situation in and around Uzbek exclaveSokh in southern Kyrgyzstan stabilised somewhat afer violentstando in Jan.

“Kyrgyz parliament sets three-month deadline for Kumtor talks”, Business 

New Europe , 25 Feb. 2013.

7/29/2019 CRISIS WATCH: Conflict Risk Alerts

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crisis-watch-conflict-risk-alerts 5/12

5

Tajikistan Visiting U.S. Asst Sec State Robert Blake met withPresident Rakhmon 20 Feb, reiterated that U.S. troops leavingAghanistan will not transit through Tajikistan; UK mid-Febcontinued negotiations on transit option through Tajikistan or

its equipment. Blake also called or ree and air Nov elections.Opposition gures reporting receiving anonymous deaththreats. Former Tajik PM Abdullojonov detained in Ukraineon international arrest warrant afer arriving rom U.S., wantedor alleged involvement in 1996 assassination attempt onPresident Rakhmon, plus other oences. Border guards killedseveral Aghan nationals suspected o tracking drugs.

“After the Afghan pullout, the dangers for Central Asia”, RFE/RL, 17 Feb.

2013.

Uzbekistan UK 19 Feb announced deal with Uzbekistan to useit as route or returning military equipment rom Aghanistan.Govt early-month introduced new rules regulating oreigncurrency, perceived as attempt to stop outow o hard

currency; media reporting increasing prices ollowingrestrictions. Court sentenced 11 people to jail or membershipin Islamic undamentalist group in eastern Namangan region.

“Is the economy going into a tailspin?”, Eurasianet, 7 Feb. 2013.

New Crisis Group Asia Report N°244, China’s Central Asia Problem , 27 Feb.

2013. China’s inuence is growing rapidly in Central Asia at a time when the

region is looking increasingly unstable.

North East Asia

China/Japan Japan 5 Feb lodged ormal protest to China

claiming Chinese rigate locked radar on Japanese naval vessel30 and 19 Jan near disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku islands; Chinadismissed claim, U.S. stated support or Japanese protest.Parliamentary Secretary or Deence Masahisa Sato 12 Febsuggested establishing hotline with China to prevent urtherincidents. Japanese Deence Minister Onodera 14 Feb claimedJapan’s right to pre-emptive strikes in case o imminent threats.Japanese PM Abe and U.S. President Obama 22 Feb meetingin Washington rearmed security alliance. U.S., Japan andAustralia 7 Feb held navy, air orce drills in Western Pacic.Presence o Chinese navy and maritime surveillance vesselso islands continued. China VP Li Kegiang urged maritimesurveillance sta intensiy law enorcement in territorial sea

to protect Chinese interests. Japanese deence ministry 28Feb reported it sent ghter jets to head o Chinese govt planeying toward disputed islands, Chinese plane changed course.Japan 22 Feb ormally complained about Chinese buoys placednear disputed waters claiming they are used or submarinetracking; China dismissed claim.

  “Old questions and few answers as Japan’s Abe and Obama discuss Asia

security tensions”, Time , 22 Feb. 2013.

North Korea DPRK 12 Feb conducted 3rd nuclear test atPunggye-ri underground test site, in reaction to 22 JanUNSC Resolution 2087 condemning its 12 Dec satellitelaunch. DPRK media described test as “high-level, sae,perect nuclear test with no negative environmental impact”.

UNSC held emergency talks, UNSG Ban condemned testas “deeply destabilising”. U.S. President Obama said test wasthreat and provocation, U.S. would lead world in responding.Russia, China condemned test, 22 Feb said would opposeoreign military intervention in North Korea. ROK declared

emergency mode, raised security alert level, 7 Feb saidwould launch pre-emptive strike i there were clear signs o imminent nuclear attack rom DPRK, 14 Feb unveiled cruisemissile allegedly capable o hitting oce o DPRK leaders;

President-elect Park declared ROK “will not tolerate a nuclear-armed North Korea”. EU imposed nancial sanctions. DPRK6 Feb threatened to close inter-Korean Kaesŏng IndustrialComplex, turn into military base, 10 Feb test red short-range ballistic missile. DPRK Ambassador to UN Conerenceon Disarmament 19 Feb threatened South Korea with “naldestruction”. ROK, U.S. 4-6 Feb conducted combined navalexercise; ROK 14 Feb began large-scale live re military drills,including combined aerial exercise with U.S.; ROK, U.S. 19Feb began combined anti-submarine warare exercise; DPRKcondemned drill as “explicit act o invasion”. DPRK 23 Feb saidU.S. orces would “meet a miserable destruction” i scheduledmilitary drills with ROK used to attack DPRK. New ROKPresident Park urged DPRK to abandon its nuclear ambitions,

stop wasting scarce resources on arms.  “North Korea is testing China’s patience”, Financial Times , 19 Feb. 2013.

South Asia

Afghanistan National Security Council 24 Feb ordered all U.S.special orces to leave eastern Wardak and Logar provinceswithin 2 weeks over allegations o torture, murder in region.NATO and Aghan orces 19 Feb reportedly killed at least 25insurgents and 3 commanders in joint strikes in south and east.Taliban suicide bombers 24 Feb killed 3 in 3 separate attacksin Logar province and Jalalabad. 20 policemen killed in 2

attacks 27 Feb in SE; 7 police killed 28 Feb by roadside bomb inKunar province. Security orces 26 Feb said at least 48 militantskilled or injured during operation in Herat province. Govt 22Feb reused Pakistan extradition request or senior PakistanTaliban leader Maulvi Faqir, arrested in border region mid-month. U.S. President Obama 12 Feb announced 34,000 troopsto be withdrawn rom Aghanistan in next year. UN report saidcrimes against women and girls increased by 20% in 2012.

  “Afghanistan says U.S. special forces may be behind torture, murder”,

CNN, 25 Feb. 2013.

Bangladesh Violence erupted as Islamist protests over 1971war crimes tribunal aced o against popular movement insupport o death sentences or those accused, including seniorleaders o Jamaat-e-Islami party. Afer country’s InternationalCrimes Tribunal (ICT) sentenced Jamaat leader Abdul QuaderMollah to lie in prison 5 Feb, hundreds o thousands beganpeaceul protests in Dhaka’s Shahbag Square same day callingor death sentence or Mollah and others on trial. Shahbagprotests continued throughout month, supported by governingAwami League and opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). Ongoing protests by Jamaat-e-Islami and its youthwing against war crimes trials intensied: general countrywidestrikes 18, 24, 28 Feb, with around a dozen killed in clasheswith security orces, dozens injured and arrested. ICT 28 Febsentenced Jamaat-e-Islami leader Delwar Hossain Sayedeeto death, sparking urther violence, over 20 reported killed,

dozens injured. One o bloggers organising Shahbag protestsAhmed Rajib Haider hacked to death in suspected Jamaat-e-Islami attack in Dhaka 15 Feb. PM Sheikh Hasina 16 Feb voiced support or banning Jamaat-e-Islami and IslamiChhatra Shibir. Parliament 18 Feb passed law to swifly execute

7/29/2019 CRISIS WATCH: Conflict Risk Alerts

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crisis-watch-conflict-risk-alerts 6/12

6

war criminals, allow prosecution appeal against lie sentencesand allow trials o parties or organisations on war crimescharges. ICT 25 Feb charged Mobarak Hossain, member o governing Awami League, with war crimes during 1971 war.

“Bangladesh split as violence escalates over war crimes protests”,Observer , 23 Feb. 2013.

India (non-Kashmir) 16 killed, over 100 injured in 21 Feb bombin southern city Hyderabad, in suspected terrorist attack. 22killed, over 80 injured 12, 15 Feb in clashes between police andtribal groups over municipal elections in Assam. Garo NationalLiberation Army militants 2 Feb attacked Williamnagar jail,Meghalaya State, killed 2 jail ocials. Odisha State Police 4 Febarrested 7 suspected Maoists. Suspected Maoist leader arrested19 Feb in Manoor, Kerala State. 3 villagers killed by Maoists20 Feb in clashes in Lakkavaram, Andhra Pradesh. 8 killed inMaoist bomb attack 22 Feb in Bihar. Bomb blast killed 1 inNagaland province 20 Feb.

“India’s Hyderabad hit by two explosions”, BBC, 21 Feb. 2013.

Kashmir Increased tensions as India 9 Feb secretly executedJaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) militant Azal Guru, convictedover 2001 attack on Indian parliament, prompting protestsin Jammu and Kashmir despite imposition o 7-day curew,media blackout. 3 dead, dozens injured, dozens arrested asprotesters clashed with security orces; increasing calls orreturn o Guru’s body to hometown. UNSG Ban and EUoreign policy chie Ashton criticised execution. Lashkar-e-Tayyaba and JeM militant groups 13 Feb vowed to “step-up jihad” in Jammu and Kashmir to avenge execution; JeM 26 Febreportedly threatened to blow up rail junctions near Nainital.

Unidentied gunmen 24 Feb killed head o village aliatedwith Indian National Conerence party in Baramulla, W o Srinagar. Pakistani soldier killed in gunght with Indiantroops 14 Feb afer reportedly crossing Line o Control (LoC),circumstances contested; 2 Indian soldiers injured in clash.Indian army 26 Feb reported it killed suspected inltrator inRajouri district. 4 minors injured 3 Feb by unexploded shell inAragam Chattabandy, N Kashmir.

“ Afzal Guru: Kashmir anger over hanging”, BBC, 11 Feb. 2013.

Nepal Ruling Unied Communist Party o Nepal (Maoist)(UCPN(M)), Madhesi Morcha, opposition Nepali Congress(NC) and Communist Party o Nepal (Unied Marxist-Leninist) (UML) 16 Feb agreed proposal allowing govt led

by Supreme Court Chie Justice (CJ) Khil Raj Regmi to holdelections or new Constituent Assembly 5 June; Regmi agreed25 Feb. Supreme Court 25 Feb reerred proposal to specialbench; hearing scheduled or 7 March. Sections o NC, UML,Nepal Bar Association opposed proposal citing violationo separation o powers, weakening o judiciary; Madhesiand ethnic groups also objected citing lack o consultation.Breakaway Communist Party o Nepal-Maoist (CPN-M) 19Feb enorced nationwide strike against CJ-led govt proposal,threatened poll boycott. UCPN(M) held national congress2-8 Feb, ormalised doctrinal shif to unarmed parliamentary politics. IEDs reportedly planted by new CPN-Maoist(Revolutionary) in 4 districts deused 26 Feb.

“Free from problems”, Kathmandu Post , 25 Feb. 2013.

Pakistan Bomb targeting Hazara Shiites in Quetta city 16Feb killed over 90; banned Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) extremist

group claimed responsibility; leader Malik Ishaq arrested 22Feb in targeted security operation against militants o LeJ andits parent party Ahle Sunnat Waljamaas (ASWJ, the renamedbanned Sipah-e-Sahaba). Shiites 17-19 Feb protested attack,

govt inaction in main cities. At least 4 killed 25-26 Feb inKarachi violence prompting protests demanding action. Bombattack 21 Feb killed 1, injured 12 in Peshawar, NW. Policemankilled, 2 injured 23 Feb in militant ambush in Rashakai, east o Peshawar. Blasphemy case against Sherry Rehman, ambassadorto U.S., registered by Supreme Court late Feb. Policemanescorting polio vaccination team shot dead 26 Feb.

  “Spiral of Karachi killings widens Pakistan’s sectarian divide”, Reuters, 24

Feb. 2013.

Sri Lanka UNOHCHR 11 Feb issued report criticising govtailure to implement recommendations o March 2012 HumanRights Council resolution or address war crimes allegationsand calling or “independent and credible international

investigation”. Human Rights Watch accused govt orces o sexual violence against Tamils in custody 2006-2012. JournalistFaraz Shauketaly, working or Sunday Leader, paper criticalo govt, shot 15 Feb by unidentied gunmen at his homenear Colombo; UN human rights chie Pillay said she was“deeply disturbed” by “attempted assassination”, called orinvestigation. Govt mid-Feb dismissed as propaganda picturesappearing to show LTTE chie Prabhakaran’s son killed inarmy custody; photos reignited calls in India or investigationinto alleged war crimes at civil war’s end. Large rally 17 Febby extremist “Buddhist Power Force” calling or laws to curbMuslim inuence in Sri Lanka; threats and attacks againstMuslim businesses reportedly on increase.

 

“Sri Lanka war investigation lags, abuses persist: UN”, Reuters, 13 Feb.2013.

New Crisis Group Asia Report N°243, Sri Lanka’s Authoritarian Turn: The 

Need for International Action , 20 Feb. 2013. As the UN Human Rights Council

prepares to open its 22nd session, the Sri Lankan government has made no

meaningful progress on either reconciliation or accountability and instead

has accelerated the country’s authoritarian turn, with attacks on the judiciary

and political dissent that threaten long-term stability and peace.

South East Asia

Indonesia 2 attacks in Puncak, Puncak Jaya districts o Papuanhighlands killed 8 soldiers, 4 civilians 21 Feb, in deadliestattack in recent years; OPM claimed responsibility. HighlanderLukas Enembe won 29 Jan Papua gubernatorial election with52% o vote; 4 dierent disputes lodged at Constitutional Courtamid allegations o widespread irregularities, particularly in highlands areas. President Yudhoyono 28 Jan issued new security decree widely seen as eort to enhance military’s rolein internal security at expense o police. Mob 17 Feb attackedhouse in Dharmasraya, W Sumatra belonging to man accusedo spreading Ahmadiyah teachings.

“Papua attack linked to election”, Jakarta Post, 25 Feb. 2013.

Myanmar Peace process with ethnic armed groups received

boost with resumption o dialogue between govt and KachinIndependence Organisation (KIO), brokered by China, andbeginning o political phase o process, with opening o political dialogue with United Nationalities Federal Councilumbrella group, which includes KIO. KIO 1 Feb issued

7/29/2019 CRISIS WATCH: Conflict Risk Alerts

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crisis-watch-conflict-risk-alerts 7/12

7

statement saying they would halt oensive military actionsi army did likewise; rst time KIO have oered to stopghting. Two sides met 4 Feb or negotiations, issued jointstatement agreeing to ease tensions, hold urther peace talks.

Aung San Suu Kyi oered to mediate talks, rejected by KIO.Govt and United Nationalities Federal Council met 20 Feb,discussed political objectives, ramework or political dialogue,timerame. No signicant clashes reported during month.Govt 24 Jan indicated ormer telecommunication ministerand several senior ocials under investigation or corruption.President 5 Feb appointed member o opposition NationalDemocratic Force to deputy minister post, rst non-USDPcabinet member. President’s oce 7 Feb announced ormationo committee to “grant liberty to remaining political prisoners”.Group o Myanmar lawyers and international rights group 14Feb issued results o investigation into injuries sustained by protesters, including monks, when security orces broke upprotests at Letpadaung copper mine.

  “Govt, UNFC hold ‘frank and friendly’ talks in Chiang Mai”, AFP, 20 Feb.

2013.

Philippines Two Malaysian police and 1 civilian killed inSabah, Eastern Malaysia, 1 March afer weeks-long stando with 180 ollowers, 20-30 bearing arms, o Sultan JamalulKiram III. Sultan claimed he was asserting unresolvedPhilippine claim to Sabah. Malaysian security orcessurrounded area and demanded group leave. Philippine govtsaid Sultan should not pursue claim by orce; urged ollowersto return home. MILF disputed Sultan’s claim that he had notbeen consulted on Oct 2012 peace agreement. Latest talkson annexes to peace agreement began 25 Feb; on same day,

members o MILF- and govt-appointed transition commissionnamed. President Aquino travelled to MILF HQ 11 Febor launch o Sajahatra Bangsamoro, new socio-economicassistance program or MILF communities. 2 cameramenkidnapped June 2012 by Abu Sayya Group in Sulu released2 Feb; clash broke out next day between ghters o MNLFcommander Habier Malik and ASG members, over 20 killed.Security guard shot dead during New People’s Army (NPA)raid in Bukidnon, Mindanao 19 Feb. Amid reports thatNPA charging candidates or May elections or “permit tocampaign”, military announced guerrillas raised 25 millionpesos through extortion in 2012. China 19 Feb rejectedPhilippines’ request or international arbitration o SouthChina Sea dispute, citing “serious mistakes both in act and

law”. Foreign ministry announced Philippines would receive 10new Japanese patrol boats or coast guard within 18 months.

  “Sabah standoff revives questions on who is the legitimate sultan of

Sulu”, Philippine Daily Inquirer , 24 Feb. 2013.

Thailand Govt 28 Feb announced agreement withrepresentatives Southern Muslim rebel group Barisan RevolusiNasional (BRN), brokered by Malaysia, to start a dialogueprocess. Several deadly militant attacks on civilians in southearly-month: 5 soldiers died in militant attack on truck inYala province 10 Feb with 50kg bomb; several other shootingincidents in Yala and Pattani province same day, 2 killed.50-80 militants 13 Feb launched assault on marine base in

Bacho District, Narathiwat; military, with prior warning o attack, killed 16 militants, including several men detained by security orces in 2004 Tak Bai incident. Militants retaliated16-17 Feb with some 50 explosive devices around Pattani town,including device near clock tower that killed 3; security orces

deused dozens o small devices. Govt 18 Feb announced it haddecided to replace emergency decree with Internal Security Act in some districts. In Bangkok, several hundred Red Shirtprotesters rallied 29 Jan demanding PTP govt grant amnesty to

political prisoners jailed or lèse-majesté and terrorism chargesstemming rom April-May 2010 protests. Further divisionsin Red Shirt movement as Kwanchai Praipana, chie o KhonRak Udon, 13 Feb said his group would no longer respondto United Front or Democracy Against Dictatorship leaderida awornseth’s orders. ai-Cambodian Regional BorderCommittee concluded meeting in Bangkok 15 Feb, agreed onmechanisms to resolve conicts on border.

“Rebel group ready to talk peace”, Bangkok Post , 28 Feb. 2013.

Timor-Leste 2013 State Budget received unanimous approvalrom parliament afer opposition party Fretilin set up ad hoccommittee to make key cuts to budget and Petroleum Fundwithdrawals. PM Gusmão lauded new political environment.

  “Fretilin com mais responsabilidade para scalizar execução orçamental

- Mari Alkatiri”, Lusa, 18 Feb. 2013.

Europe

Balkans

Bosnia Federation o Bosnia and Herzegovina (FBiH) entity lower chamber 12 Feb voted no condence in FBiH govt;upper chamber 15 Feb blocked vote, through Bosniak caucus’s

invocation o vital national interest. Constitutional courtunable to rule on validity o veto as lacks necessary quorumo judges, due to ongoing ailure to ll posts alling vacant.Republika Srpska (RS) president Dodik asked RS govt tostep down, named ormer head o EU integration unit ŽeljkaCvijanović new PM. Bosnia parliament voted to delay rstnationwide census since 1991 until Oct.

  “Bosnian independence day divides ethnic communities”, Balkan Insight,

28 Feb. 2013.

New Crisis Group Europe Brieng N°70, Bosnia’s Dangerous Tango: 

Islam and Nationalism , 26 Feb 2013. Occasional violence notwithstanding,

Islamism poses little danger in Bosnia, whose real risk stems from clashing

national ideologies, especially as Islamic religious leaders increasingly reply

with Bosniak nationalism to renewed Croat and Serb challenges to the state’s

territorial integrity.

Kosovo Kosovo and Serbian PMs met or 5th round o dialogue in Brussels 19-20 Feb; spoke about institutions innorth Kosovo, agreed to meet again 4 March. Presidentso Kosovo and Serbia 6 Feb met or rst time since Kosovodeclared independence. Series o bombings in N Mitrovica,many targeting homes/property o people linked with Kosovogovt oce, but also including 2 Serb children injured 4 Feb;large explosion 25 Feb demolished apartment. Local Serbsrenewed roadblocks on Pristina-Belgrade highway. EuropeanCommission 12 Feb issued rst report on Kosovo’s progress

on requirements o visa liberalisation roadmap, citing limitedcapacity to ght organised crime and calling or severalnew laws. Serbian monastery Visoki Dečani surrounded by KFOR troops 8 Feb to protect it rom demonstrators. Kosovo-Serbia agreement on liaison ocers to work in EU delegation

7/29/2019 CRISIS WATCH: Conflict Risk Alerts

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crisis-watch-conflict-risk-alerts 8/12

8

premises in Belgrade and Pristina delayed by disagreementover diplomatic immunity.

Marko Prelec, “Preševo’s Grievances and the Kosovo-Serbia Talks”,

Balkan Regatta, 1 Feb. 2013.

  “Belgrade, Pristina open talks on Northern Kosovo”, Euractiv, 25 Feb.2013.

New Crisis Group Europe Report N°223, Serbia and Kosovo: The Path to

Normalisation, 19 Feb. 2013. Serbia and Kosovo must build on a recent

breakthrough in negotiations and extend dialogue to sensitive issues, espe-

cially northern Kosovo’s institutions, in order to keep their fragile relationship

moving forward.

Macedonia As political crisis continued, govt turned downopposition SDSM demand to postpone 24 March localelections or hold them together with early general elections.SDSM pledged to boycott local elections unless settlement is

reached with govt. EU enlargement commissioner Füle wroteto SDSM and ruling VMRO party leaders 21 Feb warningMacedonia risked losing its way to EU and NATO unless they could nd a way orward, travelled to Skopje 28 Feb.

“Macedonia leaders exchange barbs in reply to Fuele”, Balkan Insight, 22

Feb. 2013.

Caucasus

Armenia President Sargsyan re-elected to 2nd term in rstround presidential election 18 Feb with 58.64% o vote. Mainopponent, American-born ormer FM Ra Hovannisian,took 2nd place with unexpectedly strong 36.75%; reused torecognise results. Several thousand rallied in Yerevan againstelectoral process over ollowing days. OSCE criticised lack o real competition in election.

“Does post-election protest initiative have legs?”, Eurasianet, 27 Feb.

2013.

Azerbaijan President Aliyev responded to Jan spontaneousunrest in Baku and Ismayili by removing region’s governor andwarning local ocials and their children against “obnoxiousbehaviour”; opposition leader Ilgar Mammadov and journalistToq Yaqublu arrested and charged with organising Ismayiliunrest, several others also detained. Prominent writer AkramAilisli came under attack over novella Stone Dreams about

ongoing war with Armenia, with ocially-promoted burningso his books in Baku. President Aliyev signed decree strippingAilisli o honours, pension; wie and son red rom jobs.

“Opposition candidate arrested ahead of presidential elections”, Amnesty

International, 6 Feb. 2013.

Georgia Political tensions heightened early Feb when rulingGeorgian Dream (GD)-dominated parliament 7 Feb postponedPresident Saakashvili’s annual address to MPs. Saakashvilinext day tried to give speech at national library, however some300 protesters, including some individuals recently releasedas political prisoners, appeared to block entrance, someassaulted opposition MPs. PM Ivanishvili and Saakashviliboth issued conciliatory statements ollowing clashes; partiescame together to discuss constitutional amendments proposedby GD restricting president’s ability to eect change o govtwithout parliamentary approval, and opposition UnitedNational Movement (UNM) proposal to enshrine pro-Western

oreign policy in constitution. Negotiators 20 Feb announcedparties reached agreement, but implementation not possibledue to disagreement on amnesty or public servants, proposedby UNM. Tbilisi mayor Gigi Ugulava charged with money 

laundering and misspending public unds; denies charges.Second meeting between Georgian and Russian ocials onnormalising relations scheduled 1 March.

  “Tbilisi clashes delay president’s speech”, Financial Times , 10 Feb. 2013.

North Caucasus (Russia) New acting head o DagestanAbdulatipov 22 Feb announced commission or rehabilitationo ghters to be closed, another “peacemaking” commissionto be established. 4 police killed by suicide bomber atcheckpoint outside Khasavyurt city, Dagestan 14 Feb; 2security operations carried out in city 14, 17 Feb, 9 insurgentsand a police ocer killed, including Daniyal Zargalov, emiro Northern Sector. In Ingushetia, security orces in Nazran13 Feb shot dead ormer deputy minister and oppositionleader Sultangirey Khashagulgov, claimed by authorities to besponsoring insurgent group. Head o North Caucasus ResortsCompany, Akhmed Bilalov, dismissed afer President Putin 7Feb criticised activities o his private construction company inSochi Olympics construction.

“Kremlin set to replace some North Caucasus governors before the Sochi

Olympics”, EDM, 25 Feb. 2013.

Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan) Armenia reported 2 soldierskilled, 1 soldier and a civilian wounded in sniper re incidentsFeb. Azerbaijan deence ministry reported 2 Azerbaijanisoldiers killed during Feb.

“Armenia and Azerbaijan still skirting war in Nagorno-Karabakh”, Star , 20

Feb. 2013.

Eastern Europe

Moldova Talks on Transdniestria in Lviv 19 Feb, withrepresentatives rom Russia, Ukraine, U.S., EU, OSCE, plusMoldova and Transdniestria; OSCE urged sides to maintainmomentum in negotiations set to continue May.

“Moldova, Transdniestria name three stumbling blocks in talks”, Kyiv Post,

20 Feb. 2013.

Western Europe/Mediterranean

Cyprus Democratic Rally (DISI) leader Nicos Anastasiadeswon Republic o Cyprus presidential elections with 57.5% o  vote in 24 Feb second round; hopes that this may give boostto reunication talks as he supports a looser ederation modelavoured by many Turkish Cypriots.

“An apple of discord ahead”, Economist , 23 Feb. 2013.

Turkey Car bomb near Cilvegözü Turkish border crossingto Syria 11 Feb killed 14 civilians including 4 Turks: SyrianNational Council (SNC) 12 Feb claimed target was SNCdelegation. Govt-PKK peace talks continued: seconddelegation rom pro-Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party 

(BDP) 24 Feb visited jailed PKK leader Abdullah Öcalanollowing govt approval, issued statement suggesting uturerelease o PKK-held captives. Civilian died under riot control vehicle 11 Feb in pro-Öcalan demonstrations in Diyarbakırprovince. 26 Feb Turkish army airstrike near PKK HQ in N

7/29/2019 CRISIS WATCH: Conflict Risk Alerts

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crisis-watch-conflict-risk-alerts 9/12

9

Iraq killed 4 militants. Parliament 25 Feb began discussingAKP govt’s “ourth judicial reorm package”, to remedy structural problems with judicial system, could lead to releaseo some Kurdish politicians and activists detained in Kurdistan

Communities’ Union case. Suicide bombing by member o Revolutionary People’s Liberation Part-Front (DHKP-C) at U.S.embassy in Ankara 1 Feb killed 1 guard; police 18 Feb detained167 people connected to group. France 12 Feb announcedreadiness to lif its veto on one o 5 EU negotiation chaptersit has blocked since 2007. German Chancellor Merkel 23 Febannounced support or opening new chapter, called on Turkey to show progress in opening ports to Greek Cypriot vessels.

“Jailed rebel leader holds power to end Turkey’s Kurdish conict”,

Reuters, 7 Feb. 2013.

LatinAmerica/CaribbeanColombia Peace talks between govt and FARC resumed inCuba 18 Feb, with both sides reportedly optimistic aboutprospects or agreement; FARC 6 Feb proposed legalisingcultivation o coca, marijuana and poppy or therapeutic,medical, industrial and traditional uses, 27 Feb demanded“high-level commission to clariy the truth” over govtallegations FARC stole large expanses o land rom people, alsosuggested ormer U.S. president Carter participate. PresidentSantos 23 Feb threatened to end talks i no progress achievedbut 25 Feb noted negotiations were going in right direction.FARC 15-16 Feb released 2 policemen, 1 soldier held sincelate Jan. In weeklong break between talks, conrontationsresulted in deaths o 7 soldiers in Caquetá and 2 in Antioquia,

6 guerrilla members 13-15 Feb. 3 soldiers killed 15 Feb duringpatrol in rural area outside Bogotá. FARC also reportedly responsible or bomb that destroyed police station inPutumayo, explosion targeting energy tower in Antioquia,attack on restaurant in Putumayo which lef 2 dead. ELN 4 Febannounced holding 2 German hostages, reportedly capturedNov 2012 in Norte de Santander; 15 Feb released 5 miningcompany employees kidnapped 18 Jan, but kept hostageCanadian manager. NGO Somos Deensores released annualreport, ound 69 rights deenders killed in 2012, growingnumber o threats, assassinations, attacks on rights workers.

  Christian Voelkel, “Local Governments After the Conict: The Potential

Pitfalls of a Centralised Peace Process”, Latin America Crime and Politics,

7 Feb. 2013.  “Farc proposes legal coca and marijuana crops”, BBC, 7 Feb. 2013.

Ecuador President Correa 17 Feb secured re-election with56.7% o vote; runner-up Guillermo Lasso won 23%. Correa19 Feb said his party likely won three quarters o seats inCongress, vowed to “steamroll” through reorms to entrenchhis “citizen’s revolution”.

“President Correa handily wins re-election in Ecuador”, New York Times ,

17 Feb. 2013.

Guatemala Court 14 Feb rejected charges o extrajudicialkilling led against Colonel Juan Chiroy and 8 soldiers underhis command or deaths o 6 indigenous demonstrators

in Totonicapán city in Oct; Judge Patricia Flores orderedcolonel to stand trial or dereliction o duty and 8 soldiersor “homicide in a state o violent emotion”. Public Ministry announced it would challenge ruling; Totonicapán indigenousleaders said may join complaints against decision and le civil

complaints. Police 15 Feb arrested ex-army captain ByronLima, convicted in 1998 assassination o Bishop Juan JoséGerardi, as he returned rom excursion outside penitentiary.Minister López Bonilla red prison director who authorised

excursion, told media there was “chaos” within prison system.  “Envían a juicio un coronel y ocho soldados por caso Totonicapán”, Prensa

Libre, 13 Feb. 2013.

New Crisis Group Latin America Report N°47,Totonicapán: Tension in

Guatemala’s Indigenous Hinterland, 6 Feb. 2013. The killing of protestors

last October was a tragedy foretold by those who have long warned against

Guatemala’s use of the armed forces to maintain domestic peace.

Haiti Former dictator Jean-Claude Duvalier 21 Feb led last-minute appeal to avoid attending court hearing over allegationso crimes against humanity; court 24 Feb ordered Duvalier toappear beore 28 Feb hearing; Duvalier complied. UN 21 Febormally rejected compensation claims by victims o choleraoutbreak which lef nearly 8,000 dead.

  Mark Schneider, “A State of Political Dysfunction”, Miami Herald , 12 Feb.

2013.

  “L’ONU appelle à un accord national pour sortir de l’impasse électorale”,

RFI, 16 Feb. 2013.

New Crisis Group Latin America/Caribbean Report N°46, Governing Haiti:

Time for National Consensus, 4 Feb. 2013. Without an inclusive national pact

on critical priorities, President Michel Martelly faces the spectre of a failed

presidency, and Haiti risks international abandonment.

Mexico President Peña Nieto 12 Feb unveiled new crimeprevention strategy based on unding o social programs in 251

o country’s most violent towns; stressed that prevention is key to combating organised crime, not just “more sophisticatedweapons, better equipment, more police, a higher presenceo the armed orces”. Peña Nieto 16 Feb visited Michoacánor ocial launch o new strategy with talks between FederalPolice and state govts. Human Rights Watch accused govt o hundreds o orced disappearances. Govt and ICRC signedagreement 21 Feb to co-operate in search or disappeared; govt26 Feb said 26,122 people have gone missing since Dec 2006.

 “Unabated violence poses challenge to Mexico’s new anticrime

program”, New York Times , 18 Feb. 2013.

Venezuela Govt 18 Feb announced return o President Chávez

ollowing 70-day absence or cancer treatment in Cuba; VPMaduro 28 Feb said Chávez “battling or his lie”. OppositionDemocratic Unity alliance (MUD) continued to press or ullmedical report and restoration o constitutional normality asChávez yet to be inaugurated.

“Hugo Chavez ‘battling for his life’, says VP Maduro”, BBC, 1 March 2013.

MiddleEastandNorthAfrica

Eastern Mediterranean

Israel/Occupied Palestinian Territories Widespreaddemonstrations in OPT supporting hunger-striking Palestinianprisoners in Israeli jails escalated signicantly ollowing 23 Febdeath o prisoner in unclear circumstances; hundreds injured

7/29/2019 CRISIS WATCH: Conflict Risk Alerts

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crisis-watch-conflict-risk-alerts 10/12

10

in clashes with security orces, 2 teenagers critically injured by live re. PA minister 24 Feb said autopsy revealed prisoner’sdeath caused by torture; UN called or investigation into death.Rocket red at southern Israel 26 Feb broke 3-month ceasere,

no injuries: Fatah-aliated Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades claimedresponsibility. Military raids, clashes, settler-related violence,demolitions in WB continued. Likud-Beiteinu action 19 Febmade rst ocial coalition agreement with centrist Hatnuaparty; Hatnua leader Tzipi Livni to be justice minister andnegotiator in any uture peace talks with Palestinians underPM Netanyahu’s supervision. Palestinian actions 9-10 Febheld reconciliation talks in Cairo, committed to consultationson ormation o interim govt; Hamas 24 Feb asked to delay next reconciliation meeting. Central Elections Commission 11Feb began long-delayed updating o voter rolls in Gaza Strip.

Robert Blecher, “Jerusalem in the Here and Now”, Foreign Policy , 12 Feb.

2013.

 

Ofer Zalzberg, “Israel’s Islamist Dilemma”, Times of Israel , 12 Feb. 2013.  “Palestinians say Israel ‘tortured’ detainee”,Al Jazeera, 24 Feb. 2013.

Lebanon Month saw heightened political tensions as well asincreased spillover rom Syrian conict. Joint parliamentary committees 19 Feb endorsed controversial “OrthodoxGathering” electoral law proposal requiring each sect to electown representatives through proportional representation,ollowing walk-out by opposing parties, however InteriorMinister Marwan Charbel same day ruled out holding Juneparliamentary elections without consensus on new electorallaw. Debate continued over other proposals; number o accusations o parties intending to delay elections. Ocial 17Feb reported 3 Hizbollah ghters killed in clashes with Syrian

rebels in al-Qusayr, Syria, near border; FSA 19 Feb threatenedretaliation against Hizbollah. Heavy shelling, gunre overborder rom Syria 23-24 Feb killed 4 in north o Lebanon;reugee inux rom Syria continued to increase; UN expressedrenewed concern that Lebanon could be drawn into Syria’s civilwar. 2 soldiers and detained local ugitive killed 1 Feb in Arsalin disputed incident sparking ocials’ commendation andnumber o pro- and anti-army protests; military prosecutor 11Feb charged 34 locals in connection with incident. 3 soldiersinjured 15 Feb in protests against subsequent heightenedsecurity measures in Arsal and arrest o 11 local men. Bulgaria5 Feb implicated Hizbollah in July 2012 bombing o tourist busin Burgas that killed 5 Israelis, 1 Bulgarian; led to renewed calls

or EU to blacklist group.  “Fake victory”, Daily Star , 20 Feb. 2013.

Syria Month saw violence on part o regime urther escalating,with use o Scud missiles, as UN 27 Feb warned o severe risein reugees and a humanitarian situation “dramatic beyonddescription”. Rebels continue to consolidate hold on North andEast, made several strategic gains. Renewed clashes reportedin Aleppo end Feb; Human Rights Watch reported govtballistic missile strikes in civilian areas killed over 100. Rebelslaunched new oensive on regime-stronghold Damascus.Car bomb 21 Feb killed dozens, injured over 200 in centralDamascus near ruling Ba’ath party HQ. Reports emerged o worsening maltreatment and torture o prisoners in govt jails.

UN/Arab League Envoy Brahimi 17 Feb, Syrian NationalCoalition (NC) 22 Feb announced support or NC leaderMouaz Khatib’s Jan initiative or conditional talks with regime;Brahimi called or talks between opposition and “acceptable

delegation” rom govt; Syrian FM Walid al-Moualem 25 Febsaid regime is prepared to talk to armed opposition. EU 19Feb renewed arms embargo on Syria or urther 3 months withamendment allowing more non-lethal and technical support

or civilian protection. NC 23 Feb threatened to boycott 28 Feb“Friends o Syria” meeting with Western backers due to lack o international condemnation ollowing govt’s bombardment o Aleppo; rescinded afer condemnations issued, Western statespromised increased non-lethal aid. NC 22 Feb announced itwould establish govt to run rebel “liberated” areas o country.Brahimi’s contract extended to end-2013.

“UN warns of dire rise in refugees from Syria”, New York Times , 27 Feb.

2013.

Gulf

BahrainGovt, opposition participated in 5 “NationalConsensus Dialogue” sessions aimed at ending political

deadlock; scheduled 13 Feb session suspended due to protests.Late-month reports o disagreements when oppositioninsisted that representatives o king should join talks; demandrejected by govt. As demonstrations intensied in run-up to2-year anniversary o 14 February uprising, teenage protesterand security ocial reported killed 14 Feb in clashes west o Manama, urther protestor later died rom injuries; protestersclashed with police ollowing teenager’s uneral 16 Feb. 8militants with alleged links to Iran, Iraq, Lebanon reportedarrested mid-Feb; govt accused Iran’s Revolutionary Guard o establishing terror cell. Court sentenced policeman to 7 years’ jail over atal shootings o protesters during 2011 uprising,

acquitted 4 others. Human Rights Watch said rulers had madeno progress on promised reorms, ocial impunity continues,activists remain imprisoned.

“Bahrainis divided as leaders start reconciliation talks”, Reuters, 13 Feb.

2013.

Iran At rst Iran-P5+1 talks in 8 months 26-27 Feb,negotiators oered Iran limited sanctions relie in exchangeor Tehran curbing most sensitive aspects o nuclear activities;Iran said negotiations “turning point”; urther talks scheduled.New U.S. sanctions took eect 6 Feb; next day Iran rejectedU.S. oer o direct talks saying it would not negotiate underpressure o sanctions. Foreign Ministry 12 Feb said country ready or “comprehensive agreement” with IAEA including visit to Parchin military complex i nuclear rights recognised;IAEA-Iran talks 13 Feb ailed again to reach deal. IAEA 21Feb conrmed Iran had started to install new generation o centriuges at Natanz enrichment plant; U.S. called it “yetanother provocative step”. EU Court 5 Feb ruled sanctionson Iranian Bank Saderat should be lifed due to insucientevidence bank involved in nuclear program. Currency reachedall-time low, registering more than 21% drop in 2 weeksagainst US$. President Ahmadinejad 3 Feb accused parliamentspeaker Ali Larijani’s amily o corruption; rival politicians 17Feb apologised to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei or public eud.

“Iran hails turning point in nuclear talks”, Guardian , 27 Feb. 2013.

New Crisis Group Middle East Report N°138, S pider Web: The Making and Unmaking of Iran Sanctions , 25 Feb. 2013. For some, a tool to rein in Iran’s

nuclear ambitions, for Tehran an illegitimate intrusion into domestic affairs:

what is clear is that sanctions have, as yet, failed in diminishing dangerous

tensions on the core question of whether Iran’s nuclear goals are military or

merely civilian.

7/29/2019 CRISIS WATCH: Conflict Risk Alerts

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crisis-watch-conflict-risk-alerts 11/12

11

Iraq Protests against PM al-Maliki continued: tens o thousands o Sunni protesters 1 Feb marched throughoutcountry, thousands o Sunnis protested 22 Feb in Ramadi,Baghdad, Mosul, Fallujah. Suicide bombers 6 Feb killed Iraqi

army intelligence ocer Awni Ali and 2 bodyguards in TalAar, 11 Feb killed at least 8 at military checkpoint in Mosul, 3Feb killed at least 33 outside police HQ in Kirkuk, 5 Feb killedat least 3 at Taji checkpoint, 4 Feb inltrated meeting o Sahwatribal ghters in Taji and killed at least 22. Masked gunmenwearing Iraqi army uniorms 22 Feb shot dead 7 members o govt-backed militia Sahwa near Tuz Khurmato. Car bombs 8Feb throughout country killed at least 34. Car bombs acrossBaghdad 17 Feb killed 28; al-Qaeda-linked Islamic State o Iraq claimed responsibility. Car bomb 28 Feb killed severalin Baghdad Shia neighbourhood. Gunman 11 Feb killedbodyguard o Kurdish member o Mosul provincial counciland 3 others. Dispute between Baghdad govt and autonomousKurdish region over oil rights delayed attempts to pass draflegislation or budget. Attack 9 Feb on Iranian dissident groupMujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) residents at ormer U.S. basekilled at least 5, wounded over 25. Oil minister Abdul KareemLuaibi 25 Feb said Turkey rejected possibility o extending oil,gas export pipelines rom Kurdistan region through Turkey without Baghdad govt’s approval.

“ Anti-government protests continue in Iraq”,Al Jazeera, 15 Feb. 2013.

Jordan Number o Syrian reugees entering Jordan reportedly reached 400,000; violence erupted 24-25 Feb in Zaataricamp over poor conditions. In rst protests since 23 Janparliamentary election, hundreds o opposition MuslimBrotherhood supporters demonstrated in Amman 22 Feb to

demand aster political reorm; opposition protests also heldthroughout country. Royal Court Chie Fayez Tarawneh 20 Febcontinued consultations with parliament to choose PM.

  “Jordanian Islamists protest against new parliament”, Reuters, 22 Feb.

2013.

Saudi Arabia Security orces 9 Feb arrested several women andchildren ollowing demonstrations in Riyadh and Buraidahcalling or release o prisoners detained without charge. U.S.media 6 March reported CIA use o Saudi Arabian airbase orYemen drone strikes. Police reported 3 incidents 23 Feb o unknown gunmen opening re at prison and police targets inShiite-populated Eastern Province.

  “Saudis protest for female political prisoners”,Al-Akhbar English, 12 Feb.

2013.

Yemen Tensions between separatists and security orces,Islamist party Islah reached highest levels since early 

2012, sparking ears o urther violence. At least 6 killed, 49wounded 21 and 23 Feb in clashes between separatistprotesters and security orces in South marking 1-yearanniversary o President Hadi’s election. UNSC 15 Febexpressed concern ormer president Saleh and separatist leaderAli Salim al-Bid undermining democratic transition, warnedo urther measures against spoilers including sanctions. Atrally in Sanaa 27 Feb ormer president Saleh called or nationalreconciliation. President Hadi 6 Feb announced 18 March date

or start o drafing new constitution and national dialogue.Govt 2 Feb conrmed ship intercepted 23 Jan was Iranian shipsmuggling weapons; Iran denied connection. Military 2 Febkilled 10 suspected militants in air strikes, drove group o al-Qaeda-linked insurgents rom mountain hideout in South.

Security chie Abdulwahab al-Wali 23 Feb survivedassassination attempt in South. Main oil pipeline in centralMaarib province sabotaged 8 Feb.

“Consolidating uncertainty in Yemen”, Foreign Policy , 22 Feb. 2013.

North Africa

Algeria Security orces 6 Feb repelled attempt to overrunKhenchela garrison by 50 suspected Islamists, killing atleast 2; 8 Feb arrested 2 AQIM would-be suicide bombers inTinzawaten; 10 Feb arrested 10 suspected members o armsand ammunition tracking network in El Bayadh; 11 Febkilled 2 suspected terrorists in Tizi Ouzou; 16 Feb killed 4terrorists on border with Mali; 23 Feb killed 4 in BoukaalMedajadji and 8 in Boumerdès, including AQIM emir orBordj Menaïel town. Interior Ministry mid-month banned

Sala Free Awakening Front party rom holding oundingconvention. Security orces increased positions on border withMali. 16 protesters arrested in Warqla province 14 Feb.

  “L’Africom courtise l’Algérie”, El Watan, 16 Feb. 2013.

Egypt President Morsi 21 Feb announced 4-stageparliamentary election starting 27 April, later moved to 22April to avoid clash with Easter; main opposition coalitionNational Salvation Front (NSF) 26 Feb announced boycottover transparency concerns. Morsi called or 26 Feb live-broadcast national dialogue session to discuss election airnessguarantees; NSF, Christian representatives did not attend.Govt approved elections monitoring by several NGOs andinternational organisations. Latest wave o unrest which

began 24 Jan continued into Feb in cities and governoratesacross Egypt, uelled by anger at police brutality in responseto rioting. Protesters outside presidential palace clashedwith police 1 Feb; 2 killed. Campaign o civil disobedienceinitiated 17 Feb in Port Said as protesters demanded ocialaccountability or over 40 protester deaths in Jan violence;over a week o protests, strikes and blockades o govtbuildings ollowed. In attempt to quell anger Morsi 19 Febagreed to judicial investigation, allocated new unds to area.Civil disobedience campaigns spread to other governoratesincluding Ismailia, Kar al-Sheikh.

“Can the political crisis in Egypt actually be resolved?”,Al-Monitor, 22 Feb.

2013.

Libya ousands took to streets 17 Feb to mark 2ndanniversary o revolution. Civil society organisations inBenghazi, supported by some armed groups, 15 Feb protestedagainst govt over perceived ailure to ull goals o revolution.Leaders o groups seeking autonomy or east cancelled planned15 Feb protest rally citing eared violence. Congress 6 Febapproved direct election to constitution-drafing committee;committee 14 Feb unveiled draf “political isolation law”,which proposes to bar up to 36 categories o civil servantsrom senior govt, administrative positions or next 10 years. 4Christian missionaries arrested in Benghazi or proselytising.FM Abdelaziz called or Western and Arab allies to help secureborders to prevent Islamist rebels inux rom Mali. PM Zeidan

denied reports Qadha-era PM Mahmudi tortured in jail.  “Libya two years on: revolution and devolution”,Al Jazeera, 17 Feb. 2013.

7/29/2019 CRISIS WATCH: Conflict Risk Alerts

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/crisis-watch-conflict-risk-alerts 12/12

“The International Crisis Group provides analysis by professionals who not only want a say, but

actually have something to say. They are not just researching at their desk, but know the region and

the people they are talking about.”

Detle Esslinger, Comment Editor, Süddeutsche Zeitung, February 2011

Crisis Group Ofces

Brussels brussels@crisisgroup.org

+32 2 502 9038

Washington washington@crisisgroup.org

+1 202 785 1601

New York newyork@crisisgroup.org

+1 212 813 0820

Crisis Group’s international headquarters is in Brussels, and the organisation has ofces or

representation in 34 locations: Abuja, Bangkok, Beijing, Beirut, Bishkek, Bogotá, Bujumbura,Cairo, Dakar, Damascus, Dubai, Gaza, Guatemala City, Islamabad, Istanbul, Jakarta, Jerusalem,Johannesburg, Kabul, Kathmandu, London, Moscow, Nairobi, New York, Port-au-Prince,Pristina, Rabat, Sanaa, Sarajevo, Seoul, Tbilisi, Tripoli, Tunis and Washington DC.

Crisis Group is also currently covering some 70 areas of actual or potential conict (throughanalysts operating from regional or eld bases, or consultants). In Africa, this includes, BurkinaFaso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republicof the Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Nigeria,Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda and Zimbabwe; in Asia, Afghanistan,Burma/Myanmar, Indonesia, Kashmir, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Malaysia, Nepal, North Korea,Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan, Thailand, Timor-Leste, Turkmenistanand Uzbekistan; in Europe, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cyprus, Georgia,Kosovo, Macedonia, North Caucasus, Serbia and Turkey; in the Middle East and North Africa, Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel-Palestine, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Syria,Tunisia, Western Sahara and Yemen; and in Latin America and the Caribbean, Colombia,Guatemala, Haiti and Venezuela.

Mauritania Court 11 Feb charged 2 suspected AQIMmembers with planning to ght in Mali. Rights groups issued

communiqué expressing concern at spread o extremistteachings. Army 18 Feb began joint military exerciseFlintlock-2013, led by AFRICOM and involving 19 othercountries including U.S., France, Canada. Opposition Uniondes Forces de Progrès early-month called or ormation o national unity govt as precondition or participation in nextelections, and reorm o electoral commission.

“Sur un l”, Jeune Afrique , 8 Feb. 2013.

Morocco Supporters o 20 February Movement marked2-year anniversary since birth o movement. Rapper MouadBelghouat, jailed since May 2012, conducted hunger strike4-13 Feb to protest detention conditions and detention o some70 movement activists. 6 sentenced to 1-2 years prison 27 Feb

or anti-govt protests in Dec 2012. Country’s largest Islamistopposition movement 5 Feb warned o increasing risk o “serious popular revolt”.

“Morocco’s faltering protest movement hopes for a rebound”,Al Arabiya,

20 Feb. 2013.

Tunisia 6 Feb assassination o popular opposition politicianChokri Belaïd, member o Popular Front, prompted worstpolitical and constitutional crisis since revolution, deepeningpolarisation between Islamists and secularists. Belaïd killingtriggered mass protests throughout country, with clashes withpolice, demolition o police stations and Islamist party HQs.Over 150,000 gathered or Belaïd’s uneral 8 Feb; largest trade

union same day called general strike in protest at murder.PM Jebali 6 Feb announced dissolution o govt in response tokilling, intention to establish interim cabinet o technocratsto replace Islamist-led coalition. Popular Front same day announced withdrawal rom National Constituent Assembly;Secular Congress or the Republic, led by President Marzouki,10 Feb announced withdrawal rom coalition govt to supportPM Jebali’s attempt to orm govt o technocrats, but quickly 

backed out o move. Jebali 19 Feb resigned ollowing collapseo his plan or apolitical technocrat cabinet due largely to

strong opposition rom his own An-Nahda party. An-Nahda22 Feb chose Ali Larayedh as new PM, who president taskedwith orming new govt; thousands protested choice. An-Nahdaparty chie Ghannouchi 27 Feb said will allow independents totake over key “sovereign” ministries in next govt in concessionto opposition. Govt 21 Feb announced arrest o Belaïdassassination suspects, later said killer identied. Ghannouchisaid An-Nahda not behind Belaïd assassination; thousandsmarched 9 and 16 Feb in Tunis in support o An-Nahda andIslamist-led govt.

“Tunisian Islamists name new premier”, Wall Street Journal , 22 Feb. 2013.

New Crisis Group Middle East and North Africa Report N°137, Tunisia:

 Violence and the Sala Challenge, 13 Feb. 2013. As Tunisia faces the most

critical phase of its transition after Chokri Belaïd’s assassination, its leadersmust devise a calibrated response to the various challenges posed by the rise

of Salasm.

Western Sahara UNHCHR and rights organisations 19 Febexpressed concern about airness o trial o Sahrawis whoparticipated in riots at Gdeim Izik camp in 2010; afer 2 yearso pre-trial detention, military court handed out prison termsor 24 detainees ranging rom time served to lie in prison.Prisoners reiterated claim they were tortured in prison;Amnesty International called or retrial, investigation o tortureallegations.

  “Two years too long – repression of protests must end”,Amnesty

International, 20 Feb. 2013.