crisis & incident management 'need for speed’ - why and ... · boyd and the ooda loop...

Copyright Crisisinterface Limited 2017 Gareth Jones [email protected] 0044(0) 7880 313618Copyright Crisisinterface Limited 2017 Gareth Jones [email protected] 0044(0) 7880 313618

Crisis & incident management 'need for speed’ - why and

how to get it?

Presented by Gareth Jones MSc, FICPEM, MBCI, MEPS, MCMI

10 October 2017

Crisisinterface

mailto:[email protected]


Copyright Crisisinterface Limited 2017 Gareth Jones [email protected] 0044(0) 7880 313618

Speed

Source: DCS :World V2



Boyd and the OODA loop Recommended reading for anyone interested in competitive strategy and crisis leadership:

Boyd – The fighter pilot who changed the art of war(image source: Amazon) - My SHELFARI review:

This is an excellent read for anyone interested in competitive situations. It seems Boyd had the art of stating the problem in clear terms, such as, the (defence) facts of life, the aerial attack study and a fighter pilots job is to be a 'hoser'. The book is inspiring for anyone who needs to get going - great saying -"Tiger, we are going to do some goddam good work" For a crisis management or BCM professional the concepts of entropy, operating tempo, the OODA loop and attendant German strategy concepts provide possible ways of thinking about the competitive environment and ways of working in a crisis. For a risk professional the being a 'someone' in an organisation or being a 'somebody' defines a choice of approach is available, and his maxim "you better be right" is definitely valid. The inner workings of the Pentagon are exposed and more importantly it shows that in a system some reasons why things are the way they are. The politics shape the solution and interests pull the solution in various ways. Why the UK ended up with the MRCA Tornado! I always thought the F4 Phantom was the meanest looking fighter and he shattered my illusions. In hindsight, why would the F4 looking like a block of flats turn quickly! Agility and technology rule in any competitive environment. Boyd shows the man is critical but the technology is the thing that provides the base capability (Fairy Battles against ME109's!). Boyd also seems to be an example of the rule "that amazing things are only achieved by unreasonable people" Definitely a recommended read.



Challenges leaders face in crisis

The world has changed:• Market and volatility • Interconnectedness• Web and new media - speed• Modern management practices

• Speed and momentum of a story is very fast

• Pressure builds very quickly• There is a pressing need for

information• Difficult to co-ordinate

communications• Internal stakeholders looking for

guidance quickly• How to collaborate quickly• How to organise• Difficult to get advisors quickly• Not experienced at this• Stakes are very scary• Local versus global

“Capital markets are very quick to identify those that are not managing a crisis well”



Behind - not

engaged

Slow off the

mark

Struggling to

cope- no

effective

interventions

Coping –

basic short

term

interventions

On it! –

effective

timely quality

interventions

Ahead –

advanced

strategic

interventions

= competitive

advantage

Too slow? – struggling?

Examples?



Ongoing benchmark

World-classAcceptedLimitedAd-hoc

• Leadership• Teams• Plans• Crisis comms

plan• Notification• Rooms• Exercise• Some key

risk plans

REACTIVE

What percentage of major organisations and institutions have these basics in place?

Accepted practice is not good enough to

meet todays environment?

– who is world class and what do they do?

What is the requirement?

What do we need to

prepare for the ‘real’ world?



Is there a quest for ‘speed’ in CM&IM?

Quest: a long or arduous search for something – or a task to search for something ‘noble’

▪ Is speed the right object of the quest?▪ If it is - what is it in the context of the challenges

that a CMT/IMT face?▪ Who does ‘speed’ and is there anything we can

learn? ▪ What are the downsides of speed?▪ So what: what are the possible things we could do

now?



Who does ‘speed’ and is there anything we can learn?

Envelope ‘extenders’• Aviation/space• Trial – data analysis –

trial - etc• Rapid prototyping• Sport – e.g F1, GB cycling

performance programme heated trouser etc. Lance – blood transfusion. Sailing – Ben Ainslee Americas Cup

R&D – objectivesIncremental development of process/capabilityTraining and exercise for performanceLeadership, courage and stamina

Some sectors/leading practice:Examples:• High frequency trading –

access to timely information: front run. Some FS.

• Fast food – process, process, processed

• On line gambling - speed• Apps and some telecoms?• Oil and gas - process• Case studies – tough decisions

and strategy calls

ProcessSpeed = commercial advantageUnderstanding of environmentDynamic understanding of riskDriven by environment

Military/emergency services• Intelligence - detection• Battle procedure• NICS/ICS• Drive for CRIP/sit

awareness (common recognised information picture)

• GIS and data fusion

ProcessC4I - intelligence, fusion CRIP CommunicationsTraining, exercise, learn, exercise etc.Leadership



Who does ‘speed’ and is there anything we can learn?

Envelope ‘extenders’• Aviation/space• Trial – data – trial - etc• Rapid prototyping• Sport – e.g F1, GB cycling

performance programme heated trouser etc. Lance – blood transfusion. Sailing – Ben Ainslee Americas Cup

R&D – objectivesIncremental development of process/capabilityTraining and exercise for performanceLeadership, courage and stamina

Some sectors/leading practice:Examples:• High frequency trading –

access to timely information: front run. Some FS.

• Fast food – process, process, processed

• On line gambling - speed• Apps and some telecoms?• Oil and gas - process• Case studies – tough decisions

and strategy calls

ProcessSpeed = commercial advantageUnderstanding of environmentDynamic understanding of riskDriven by environment

Military/emergency services• Intelligence - detection• Battle procedure• NICS/ICS• Drive for CRIP/sit

awareness• GIS and data fusion

ProcessC4I - intelligence, fusion CRIP CommunicationsTraining, exercise, learn, exercise etc.Leadership

• Speeders develop advanced process • Train and exercise for performance



We conclude that:72. Involvement of the Bank's Governors resulted in key issues such as the use of the contingency solutions, the content of press statements and the potential impact on 'real economy' transactions being considered and prioritised through the day.

73. The absence of a defined structure and process to improve situational awareness in support of the Governors meant that the specific issue regarding the timing of housing market transactions was not identified or escalated early enough. Combined with an

expectation that the incident would be resolved quickly, these factors influenced the decisions regarding the first media statement, and the decision not to invoke MIRS at an early stage.74. Whilst the Bank's press releases were limited and the initial press release may have been open to misinterpretation, overall the Bank's engagement with the media was considerable and this avoided uninformed or alarmist reporting.

Process example: RTGS failure

Source: Bank of England RTGS failure report £289.3



The Panel recommends that triggers for escalation should be defined that are clear and ensure early deployment of the higher level command and control structures. Any forecast snow event of a material size should automatically trigger: •The implementation of the snow contingency process,including holding a snow contingency meeting , the mobilisation of the “snowcell” with BAA, airlines and their ground handlers, NATS and ACL representation. The snow cell, once activated should remain fully operational and functional until the event is over and operations have normalised. The snow cell should not be deactivated without a closing debriefing with stakeholders; •The notification of non-operational staff and contractors that they may be called up (subject to prior contractual agreement); •The invocation of the Bronze, Silver or Gold Command depending on the nature and expected severity of the event; •The mobilisation of the Capacity Constraints Group as soon as it is clear that

Process example: Heathrow

Source: Begg Report Heathrow Winter Resilience



Tools

Process after initial meetings

Meeting 3 Execute Meeting 4

Cadence of

meetings and

approval of AP 2 to

be recommended

to GMT Leadership

Tool

4,5,6,7

Go

al/

co

mm

en

tA

cti

vit

y

Execute Meeting 5 Execute Meeting 6

Goal by

Meeting 3 –

to have the

initial

stakeholder

map defined

Goal by

Meeting 4 –

Draft AP

number 1 to

be reviewed

and

approved if

possible

Goal by

Meeting 4 –

AP to be

approved

and comms

approved

Goal by

Meeting 6 –

critical

stakeholders

and

company

wide comms

Tool

4,5,6,7

Tool

4,5,6,7

Tool

4,5,6,7

Process: operating model

Board

Group Crisis

Management

Team (GCMT)

Leader

Leader

support

Communications

Leader

Business

Facing Leader

Planning

Leader



identifiedthreat/risk Issues

Identify characteristics that would cause management to become involved

If we were watching this issue what signals/or indicators should we track and what is the threshold

example:Infectious disease

characteristics escalationcriteria

notificationactivation management to intervene resolution

time

Identify characteristics that would immediately need appropriate level management to become involved?

InterventionActivationthreshold

What characteristics are needed to define thresholda. strategic, b. operationalc.tactical levels

If this occurred who would need to be notified and/or involved?What contingency plan do we need on place?

Precaution – if this escalates we should be ready

PrecautionaryActivationthreshold

Process: signal detection



Downsides of speed?

▪ We do want speed – interventions matter, but we don’t want:

Hasty decisions - short-termism = mistakes (Madrid) Bad decisions:

Groupthink Narrow perspectives – expertise not engaged Rule of thumb – overconfidence – atavism Filtering and bias – e.g. anchoring

▪ Times to be slow? (slow food, slow school, slow sex, dynamic inactivity!). Let someone else speak.

▪ Ironically the product of being speedy in process is that you can decide to be slow!!



To be world class – exercise, exercise ,exercise

Knowledge

Behaviour

Skills

Attitude

Train & exercise for performance


Copyright Crisisinterface Limited 2017 Gareth Jones [email protected] 0044(0) 7880 313618Copyright Crisisinterface Limited 2017 Gareth Jones [email protected] 0044(0) 7880 313618

16

Overview exercise progression for ISO 22316 OR and ISO 22398 Exercises

Crisis management seminarBriefing for executivesPlan introduction

Table top

Crisis management exercise

- single team simulation

- multiple team

- business game (war game)

Live

Exercises

Complexity/resources

Inte

nsi

ty/c

apab

ility

/ass

ura

nce

Used for

development

embedding/

validation

Used for performance

development/validation

Co-operation/readinessMicro exercise

Action based

Discussion based

The diagramme below shows the progression of exercises and their key purpose. The exercises below the horizontal line are discussion and thinking based and ‘above the line’ are action based.

Drill

Train & exercise for performance




Acknowledge. Recognise that crisis and incident management speed and fidelity requirement has changed significantly - get a quest

Be proactive. Redesign operating models to provide process to assist generation of possible intervention strategies, collaboration and operations related to the real business environment

Speed. We need to be fast to detect, alert, notify, make strategy and enable communications with stakeholders. Speed takes practice

Gain performance. To help our management to be prepared to thrive in the new interconnected volatile environment - to thrive and take advantage – use realistic experiential exercises representing the real business environment

What could we do?




crisis & incident management 'need for speed’ - why and ... · boyd and the ooda loop...

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