creating a comprehensive early alert program...–kpi • success of program & implementation...
TRANSCRIPT
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Creating a Comprehensive
Early Alert Program:
Design, Implementation and
Assessment
Loralyn Taylor, Ph.D.
Kerri Koteskey, MIS
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Outline
• Design a comprehensive program
– Common components & problems
– Reactive strategies
• Identifying at-risk students
– Proactive strategies
• Identifying high risk students
• Implementation
– Change Management
• Assessment
– KPI
• Success of program & implementation
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“Retention is everyone’s business.”
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First Time Freshmen Fall-to-Fall Retention
All Fresh: 60-65%
Bachelors: 64-65%
Associates: 50-60%
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Retention Office
Accommodative Services
TRiO Advisor
ARP Advocate
Faculty Advisor
HEOP Advisor
Program Coordinators
Instructors
Academic Support
Student Life
Deans
Student
Student Development
Health Services
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Retention Office
Accommodative Services TRiO Advisor
ARP Advocate
Faculty Advisor
HEOP Advisor
Program Coordinators
Instructors
Academic Support
Student Life
Deans
Student
Student Development
Health Services
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Success/Early Alert Program
1. Data Collection
2. Analyze, Identify, Prioritize
3. Outreach and Intervention
4. Assessment & Evaluation
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Why Retention Programs Fail
1. No faculty buy-in
2. The “risk group of the year” syndrome
3. Information & communication problems
– silos
– coordination
– timeliness
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Information flow and communication
problems can sink your retention efforts.
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In Search of a Solution
• Technology• Automate--Gather, manage and distribute information
• Appropriate offices
• Coordinate response
• Easy to use
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Info/Comm hub
Accommodative Services
TRiO Advisor
ARP Advocate
Faculty Advisor
HEOP Advisor
Program Coordinators
Instructors
Academic Support
Student Life
Deans
Student
Student Development
Health Services
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Planning for Success
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Planning for Success
Maximize info but minimize data & effort
• Intentionality
– Paralysis by Analysis
– Make a plan
• Simplicity
– Less is more
– Make a simple plan
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Planning for Success
• Clarity
– Decrease training, increase compliance
– Make a clear, simple plan
• KISS
– Make a clear, simple plan that can be
understood and followed
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Planning for Success
• Information and communications plan
1. Permissions
• Who sees what, when
2. Communications
• Who gets what, when
3. Action hierarchy
• Who does what, when
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Planning for Success
• Automate prioritization
• Set appropriate thresholds
• Staffing
• Multiple intervention strategies
• Connections
• Modes
• Times
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Planning for Success
Implementation plan– John Kotter’s Change Management Theory
• 8 Stages for Creating Major Change
• Marketing campaign
• Words
• Behaviors
• Actions
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Information Management Plan
Three types of Flags
– Informational
• Notify about concern
– Action
• Student in need of intervention
– Urgent
• Critical action needed
• Student in danger of suspension
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High Risk vs. At-Risk
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Proactive & Reactive Strategies
• Proactive
– Potential High Risk
– Pre-semester
– Pre-enrollment
• Reactive
– Actually At-risk
– During semester
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Proactive Strategies
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High Risk Students
Prioritize Early Outreach
– Early Intervention
– Refer to services
• No FERPA—can communicate with parents
• Behaviors and habits not set
– Efficient use of resources
• Intervention during slower times
• Preventative, not remediation
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Proactive Data
You have it, can you access it?
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Matching data to problems
Focus on:
– Attrition
– Causes
– Difficult
– End First Semester GPA
– Credits earned
– Good standing
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Finding & Inventorying Proactive Data
• What do you collect?• Admission
• Business processes
• Orientation
• Other tracked student contacts
• Separating the wheat from the chaff• Use what works
• Time consuming, IR
• Start small
• Educated guess
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Proactive Strategies—Pre-Enrollment
• High Risk identification
– Demographics
– Underperforming groups
– Pell
– First Gen
– Survey data
– BCSSE
– CSI
– CIRP—Freshman Survey
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Proactive Strategies—Pre-Enrollment
• High-Risk Identification
– Majors
– Health Sciences, Engineering, etc.
– Coursework
– Pre-college courses
– Credits Carried
– High Challenge Courses
– High DFW rates
– Lab Sciences
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• High Risk identification
– Financial Aid
– Loan size
– Gap
– Parent PLUS loans
– Predictive Modeling
– New student surveys
– BCSSE
– CSI
– etc.
Proactive Strategies—Pre-Enrollment
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Proactive Strategies—Returning
• High Risk identification
– Coursework
– Credits carried
– Prior academic performance
– Standing
– GPA drops
– Transcript requests prior to semester
– Transcript reviews
– Loan denials
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• High Challenge Courses
– Targeting support
• Early Alert Survey Data
• Grades
– Midterm/final distributions
• DFW rates
– Math
– English
– Critical FY major courses
Proactive Strategies
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Reactive Strategies
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Reactive Strategies
• At-Risk Identification
– Behaviors/Engagement
– Academic
– Attendance, grades, homework
– Social
– Clubs, sports, gaming
– Disciplinary
– Violations, residence hall behavior
– Wellness
– Health, drugs & alcohol
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Finding & Inventorying existing data
• Early Alert Surveys
• MidTerm Grades
• Attendance
• Systems & Business processes data
• Automation is KEY
• Efficient & effective
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Data Sources
• Instructors
• LMS automated alerts
• Log in/ Grades/ assignments/ discussions/ Clicker
• Admissions
• Student Surveys
• Appointments
• Tutoring/advising/other services
• Residence Life/Student Life
• Business processes
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Matching data to problems
Focus on:
– YOUR key problem(s)
– Paralysis by Analysis
– Risk group of the month trap
– success NOT retention
– Holistic
– Building support
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Common Reactive EA Problems
1. Too little data• Can’t prioritize or refer
2. Too few participating• Can’t catch problems
3. Too late• Can’t recover
4. Too much data
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Reactive Strategies Tips
• Goal: Timely identification & outreach• 3 Rs: Right student, right time, right intervention
• Get biggest bang for buck• Efficiency & effectiveness
• Clear, simple, intuitive
• Automate EVERYTHING!• Create information & communications hub
• Communicate, communicate, communicate
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Reactive Strategies Tips
• Avoid Flag overload• Data without effort
• Collect what you can use, no more
• Manage expectations
• Clearance rates
• Set appropriate intervention thresholds
• Staffing
• Multiple intervention strategies
• automate
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Reactive Strategies Tips
• Intervention strategies• Rapid
• Real time
• Automated
• Multiple modes
• Multiple people
• Don’t waste data or effort!
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Reactive Strategies
• Faculty resistance• Can be AVOIDED
• Communication
• Goals & language
• Can be overcome
• Time
• Ease of use
• Motivation
• Success
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Doing without Data
• The plural of anecdote is not data
but educated guess.
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Doing without Data– Know your college & students
– Best Practices
– Institution type
– Student body
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Planning for Success
Interventions
• Threshold
• Casting too wide a net
• Minimize false positives
• Type & Level
• Automated email
• Personal outreach
• Parents?
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Assessment
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Measure what matters,
when it matters.
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Key Performance Indicators
Reasons:
• To demonstrate success
• For continuous improvement
• To demonstrate ROI
• To show need for resources
• Different measures for different stakeholders
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Short Term Wins• Planned
• Meaningful
• Timely
• Multiple measures
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No ROI = No more re$ources
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Evaluating your Implementation
• New Behaviors• Log ins
• Account creations/profile creations
• Flags raised
• Office hours created
• Appointments made
• Referrals made
• Kudos raised
• Clearance rates/ completed referrals
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Rewarding New Behaviors
• Recognition• Small is ok
• Doctors & Starbucks
• Better to come from on high
• President is best
• Visibility
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Evaluating your Interventions
• Outreach• Clearance rates
• Reaching students?
• Timely
• methods
• Interventions• Support Services, Success Counseling,
Accommodative Services, Tutoring
• Dosage effect?
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Early Alert Survey Results
2010 2011 2012
Fall Fall Fall
Sections Reporting 98% 84% 99%
Completion Time 1.4 1.7 2.47
# Flags Raised 789 810 941
# Students Flagged 380 387 489
% Students Flagged 38% 36% 46%
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Student Success KPI
• Early
– EA Survey results
– Flag rates
– Flag clearance times
– MidTerm and Final Grades
• % with at least one D or F grade
• % D and F grades awarded
– % suspended after probation
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Student Success KPI
• Mid
– Year-to-year retention rates
– % with overall gpa >2.00
– % on probation
– % suspended
– % on Dean’s List
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Late KPI:Multi-year Retention Rates
Graduation Rates
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50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
prior 3 yrave
2010 2011 2012
First Time Students in Good Academic Standing
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2.40
2.50
2.60
2.70
2.80
2.90
3.00
3 year priorave
2010 2011 2012
GPA
Term & Overall GPA
Overall
Term
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36% Probations
41% Suspensions
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Dean’s List: +17%
Adirondack Scholar: + 44%
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High and Low Risk Students identified by Predictive Model
Low Risk High Risk % Change
Average GPA 2.87 1.78 -38%
Probation 10% 38% 280%
Withdraws 3% 8% 167%
% in Good Standing 84% 45% -46%
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The Intersection of High Risk
CSI Risk Factors
Predictive Model Low Risk High Risk
Low Risk
High Risk
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% Achieving Good Academic Standing
(GPA≥2.00)
CSI Risk Factors
Predictive Model Low Risk High Risk
Low Risk 87% 56%
High Risk 55% 34%
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Earned Associates in 2 years
+34%
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Bachelor’s
in 4 years:
+19%
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Retention = Revenue
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Increase in Net Student Revenue due to Increased Overall Retention Rate
Increased retention
Total Additional Students
Net Student Tuition
Spring 2010 to Fall 4.40% 36 360,000
Fall 2010 to Spring 0.80% 39 390,000
Spring 2011 to Fall 3.60% 59 590,000
Fall 2011 to Spring 2.00% 70 700,000
Spring 2012 to Fall 5.90% 102 1,020,000
Fall 2012 to Spring 1.20% 99 990,000
Spring 2013 to Fall 4.80% 107 1,070,000
Grand Total $5,120,000
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Planning for Success−Maximize info, minimize effort
−Information & Communications
−Clear, simple, automate
−Implementation
−Change Management
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Questions?
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Contact us!
Loralyn Taylor
@LoralynTaylor
Kerri Koteskey
@MTOutdoor