cp capabilities - overview (3)

© Cayuga Partners LLC 2015 www.cayugapartners.com

Simulate . . . Educate . . . Innovate!

Cayuga Partners: Supply Chain Analysis, Design and Innovation



Cayuga Partners’ Approach

Simulate . . . Educate . . . Innovate! As Sr. Partner Jack Muckstadt frequently observes, Supply Chain Management isn’t rocket science, it’s harder!” Cayuga Partners’ approach to supply chain operations performance improvement follows the “5 Principles of Supply Chain Management.” Cayuga Partners' offerings encompass three elements that enable our clients to improve supply chain responsiveness and efficiency:

• Analytics: our distinguished team of experts coaches your management team and

personnel in the implementation and use of innovative tools and strategies in supply chain analysis, planning and execution.

• Learning: the advanced concepts and techniques applied in our analytics are

embodied in a series of executive seminar offerings. Case studies and simulation-based courseware guide participants through the learning process. Insights and practical know-how are quickly gained through the experience of using of games and interactive tools that compress the time it takes to transfer knowledge.

• Tools: our tools and flexible computer models are used to analyze and simulate the

complex dynamics of your supply chain and manufacturing processes. These unique, powerful, interactive tools enable you to predict - and see - the consequences of strategic, tactical and operational decisions before applying them in the “real world”.

Cayuga Partners are innovators in supply chain and manufacturing operations management. The firm's principals are prominent academicians in the field of Operations Research with extensive experience and success in working with global Fortune 1000 companies: Drs. Jack Muckstadt and Peter Jackson of Cornell University, Dr. Dave Murray of the College of William & Mary and Dr. Jim Rappold of the University of Wisconsin. Cayuga Partners is managed by co-founder Walt Beadling, a supply chain technology industry veteran.



Jack Muckstadt

John A. “Jack” Muckstadt is a co-founder and Senior Partner of Cayuga Partners LLC; Emeritus Acheson-Laibe Professor of Business Management and Leadership Studies at Cornell University’s School of Operations Research and Information Engineering (ORIE); Co-Director, Institute for Disease and Disaster Preparedness, Weill Cornell Medical College and a member of the Board of Scientific Advisors to the CDC’s Coordinating Office for Terrorism Preparedness and Emergency Response (COTPER). Jack is an authority in the field of Operations Research, noted for his particular expertise in the study of multi-echelon, multi-indenture service parts supply chains.

Dave Murray

Dave Murray is a co-founder of Cayuga Partners LLC, and currently serves as Assistant Dean and Clinical Professor of Operations and Information Technology at William & Mary’s Mason School of Business Administration. Dave’s research interests are focused on the role that information technology plays in supply chain design and analysis, with emphasis on the ways that information technology can be used to improve the coordination of value-adding activities among firms in the supply chain. Some of his clients are Accenture, AspenTech, Avon, CNR, General Motors, Philip Morris, the Commonwealth of Virginia, Trinova and Whirlpool.

Jim Rappold

Cayuga Partners co-founder Jim Rappold is a supply chain expert with corporate clients in the US and abroad, including BASF, Briggs & Stratton, Corning Glass Works, General Mills, IBM, Merck KGaA Philip Morris, Procter & Gamble, Rockwell Automation, Sunoco, the U.S. Air Force, Sango Ceramics and Polioles. He is founder and CEO of Supply Chain Sciences and InvOpt.com. Jim currently serves on the faculty of the University of Wisconsin-Madison where he is the recipient of numerous teaching awards including the University of Wisconsin School of Business Professor of the Year and the Chancellor’s Distinguished Teaching Award. Jim has published in Operations Research, Manufacturing & Service Ops Management, Industrial Engineer, Naval Research Logistics, and Information Systems Frontiers.

Peter Jackson

Peter Jackson is an Associate of Cayuga Partners LLC and a Professor on the faculty of the School of Operations Research and Information Engineering (ORIE) at Cornell University. His research interests include production planning and scheduling, inventory control, supply chain management, transportation planning and scheduling, integrated production and transportation planning, and graphical modeling systems. Peter has consulted with many companies in these areas, including AGCO, Cleveland Clinic, Servigistics (now PTC), IFF and GM. He is the recipient of several awards for curriculum innovation in addition to numerous student-voted awards for teaching excellence and recipient of GM’s “Most Valuable Colleague” Innovation award for inventory optimization.



Nathaniel Hupert

Nathaniel Hupert, M.D., M.P.H, is an Associate of Cayuga Partners and a primary care internal medicine specialist and a researcher in public health and medical decision making in the Departments of Public Health and Medicine, Weill Medical College of Cornell University.

Nathaniel’s research concerns a number of topics that fall under the heading of "computational public health", the application of mathematical and simulation modeling techniques to health problems that extend beyond the bounds of traditional epidemiology. In 2008 Nathaniel was named inaugural Director of the CDC's Preparedness Modeling Unit. He has lectured nationally on bioterrorism preparedness for the CDC and the Strategic Pharmaceutical Stockpile program and for the DHHS Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

Nathaniel has worked closely with Cornell’s Operations Research and Information Engineering (ORIE) community to bring state-of-the-art engineering solutions to critical public health problems. These efforts were formalized with the creation of the cross-campus Institute for Disease and Disaster Preparedness, co-led by Nathaniel and Jack Muckstadt.

Bob McCafferty

Bob McCafferty is a Senior Analyst and associate of Cayuga Partners, a computer scientist and control engineer specializing in the interrogation and analysis of high dimensionality databases, process modeling and optimization methods. He is especially adept at combining and analyzing synchronous and asynchronous temporal data from disparate sources and heterogeneous environments, and finding significant relationships among seemingly unrelated variables in very large scale datasets. Bob’s clients include Abbott Labs, Air Products & Chemicals, Anheuser Busch, Arkema, BASF, Cominco, Eli Lilly, Fiberteq, Husky Energy, Infineon, James Hardie, Lafarge, Lanxess, Lyondell, Marathon Oil, MiRO, the National Institutes of Health (NIH), NovaChem, Owens Corning, PCS Potash, Phillips 66, Suncor Energy, Ticona and Wyeth Laboratories

Walt Beadling

Walt is the Managing Partner of Cayuga Partners, a technology industry veteran with experience in manufacturing systems and expertise in ERP/MRP, Process Control and Supply Chain Management (SCM) systems. After 18 years in sales and business development roles with IBM Walt joined Chesapeake Decision Sciences where he helped establish the firm as a leader in the emerging SCM market. Upon the acquisition of Chesapeake by AspenTech, Walt assumed responsibility for sales and marketing in the supply chain business unit, leaving in 2002 to found Cayuga Partners with Drs. Muckstadt, Murray and Rappold.



Some of our Clients . . . Cayuga Partners have successfully conducted a wide range of projects with private and public sector clients that involve analytics, education and manufacturing process and supply chain modeling. Here are some examples:

Addivant

• Forecast accuracy study

AGCO

• Service Parts Forecasting and Planning algorithms

• Managed Dealer Inventory (MDI) Collaborative Planning System

Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ)

• Simulations: Telemedicine in Disaster Management

• Hospital Preparedness Guidebook

Amazon.com

• Supply Chain Analysis and Design

Centers for Disease Control (CDC)

• Influenza Pandemic and Bioterrorism Response Planning

• Pandemic Influenza Logistics Simulator (PILS)

Cleveland Clinic

• Supply Chain analysis and modeling

• Inventory Management techniques

ConocoPhillips / Phillips 66

• Refining Process Troubleshooting and Optimization

• Process Unit Operating Limits and Alarm Rationalization

Department of Homeland Security (DHS)

• “Operation Restore” Port Closure Model (CBP)

• Air Cargo Screening Facility simulation (TSA)

Eaton Aeroquip

• Workforce education

• Manufacturing and supply chain optimization

General Motors

• Retail Inventory Optimization

• Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP) game



Infineum

• Best Practices Benchmarking Study: Inventory Planning

International Flavors & Fragrances

• Lean Manufacturing Executive Seminars

NY Presbyterian Hospital / Weill Cornell Medical College

• Bioterrorism Response Model

• Hospital Risk Assessment Model (HRAM)

• Flu Planner

• Dual Population Antiviral Prophylaxis Effectivity Model

• Surgical Outcomes Study (on behalf of the Hospital for Specialized Surgery)

Nissan

• Supply Chain Optimization Executive Workshops

• Retail Pricing Optimization Model

NovaChem

• Process analytics tools

• Troubleshooting – Ethylene Cracking Unit

Owens Corning

• Process analytics tools

• Manufacturing process analysis and optimization

Philip Morris USA

• Inventory and Production Optimization Opportunity Assessments

• Strategic Evaluation Model (SEM)

SAP AG

• Investigation of APS prior art in support of i2 patent infringement litigation

Servigistics (now PTC Corporation)

• Advanced algorithms for service parts inventory optimization software

Sunoco

• Pricing / Demand and Supply Chain Network Rationalization Studies

• Supply Chain Optimization Team Education Program

United States Air Force (USAF)

• Readiness-Based Sparing (RBS) Model

• Manugistics IPO evaluation for Expeditionary Combat Support System (ECSS)

program



Cayuga Partners’ Offerings for Experiential Learning

“Tell me and I forget. Teach me and I remember.

Involve me and I learn.”

- Benjamin Franklin

There is no shortage of great ideas; innovation can only happen when these great ideas are successfully implemented in the real world. This means that people have to learn new ways of doing things, and change the way that things get done. Cayuga Partners’ primary objective in working with our clients is to transfer supply chain knowledge, insight and management skills that translate into new ways of doing things and making better business decisions, day in and day out. Experiential Learning is used to achieve this goal. Human beings learn best from first hand experience. However, “learn by doing” only works well when feedback is fast and unambiguous; in business, one rarely, if ever, sees the consequences of their most important decisions. The simulated worlds instantiated in computer-based games enable relevant play in a complex organization by compressing time and space, making it possible to experiment and learn by doing even when the consequences of decisions occur in the future, and in distant parts of the organization. Based upon the Five Principles and “Laws of Supply Chain Physics”, Cayuga Partners’ course materials and extensive library of computer games represent years of development and teaching experience proven in the curricula of leading universities and in engagements with commercial clients across a wide range of industries. Courses and games can be developed or readily adapted to a client’s specific objectives and supply chain environment to ensure relevancy and effective knowledge transfer. Here are descriptions of some of our most popular games:

Supply Chain Leadership Seminar: the Nova Game

Supply Chain 101. Nova, Inc., a fictional manufacturing company, has implemented new technologies, business processes and organizational changes to remain competitive over the years. Despite these efforts, however, Nova continues to under-perform, losing market share. In this seminar, teams engage in friendly competitions to optimize Nova's business using realistic computer-based simulations. Participants receive hands-on



experience with data analysis and advanced decision support tools to understand customer demand and requirements, design responsive manufacturing and logistics systems and create a collaborative supply chain management environment that drives Nova’s performance to industry leadership. The coaching and insights of Drs. Muckstadt, Murray, Rappold and Jackson further enhance this unique learning experience.

Michigan Integrated Logistics Simulator (MILS)

MILS introduces the concepts of product and information flow within a simple distribution network, including basic inventory management concepts, costs and cost tradeoffs and rudimentary forecasting techniques. The MILS game demonstrates the impact of variation in demand – the so-called “Bullwhip Effect” – on system-wide inventories and costs, and the importance of coordinated decision-making in supply chain management. Participants see how good inventory policy is dependent upon the availability of information, product cycle times, network structure, demand variation, manufacturing lead times and setup costs.

Distribution Game

The Distribution Game deals with the problem of ordering and allocating stock in a simple, two-level distribution system consisting of a central warehouse and retailers. Players decide when and how much to order from the supplier and when and how much to ship to retailers. Customers buy from the retailers. The objective is to avoid stock-outs and make as much revenue as possible from these sales, while simultaneously managing costs to maximize profit.



Transportation Game The Transportation Game deals with the problems of routing and scheduling trucks and delivery vehicles. Upon completing the game, participants are able to identify the tradeoffs that must be considered when dispatching vehicles, describe the procedure for making routine routing and scheduling decisions, quantify the impact of the order horizon policy variable, and identify economic inefficiencies in the design of the transportation system. Mathematical models are used to optimize shipping schedules and routings.

The Cups Game

Discovery and application of the Five Guiding Principles are learned through the Cups Game. The game environment illustrates fabrication and assembly operations, bottlenecked operations, the effect of quality issues, coordination, and the management philosophy underlying the use of capacity and inventory to achieve good customer service. The experience is divided into three parts. First, by viewing a video of the game, the participants study and observe the differences between mass production and its corresponding inventory policies

and the use of a Kanban control policy. Second, the participants prepare a process map of the environment as part of their diagnosis of the existing system. Third, the participants re-design the system to optimize manufacturing performance metrics. This last experience is conducted as a competition among teams of participants.



Multi-item Kanban: The “No B/C” Inventory Game

Kanban systems are typically associated with low product variety and high volume production. In this game, we simplify the production process of the Cups Game but dramatically increase the product variety and demand variability, and then limit production capacity. A traditional Kanban system would break down in this environment. To deal with this problem, participants learn a new technique through game play that preserve all of the benefits of the Kanban production system while coping effectively with high product variety, the “No B/C” inventory management policy.

Some Other Games . . .

In addition to the above, we’ve developed a wide variety of other games and courses for our clients including:

The Pandemic Influenza Logistics Simulator (PILS), a variant of the MILS Game that demonstrates the impact of a pandemic on the healthcare system supply chain and allows participants to develop mitigation strategies that maximize the availability and effectiveness of prophylactic measures; developed with Weill Cornell Medical College for F. Hoffman La Roche.

Product Scheduler, a scheduling and optimization game developed for use by Sunoco’s supply chain management team that is based on their pipeline and distribution network in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwestern US regions. Playing the game together fostered a new level of understanding and collaboration within the group.

Mammoth Motors, a service parts supply chain game developed for General Motors wherein participants play the roles of dealers servicing automobiles or managing a central warehouse that serves the dealer network. Some of the parts have highly variable and uncertain demands. Warehouse managers juggle storage and picking capacities and logistics costs; dealers manage inventories and costs to provide profitable, reliable levels of customer service.

The Engineering Factory, also developed for General Motors, teaches players to use various sources of information available to make decisions about the recruitment,



training and transfer of personnel resources. They can adjust scheduling priorities, change the amount of effort, transfer work between design teams or utilize overtime in order to address problem areas.

The Metal Fabrication Division (M.F.D.) Pull Game provides experience in operating a pull-based production system including pull signals, the production planning board and use of dedicated storage space.

The M.F.D. THRUPUT Game provides experience in managing capacity and costs while learning how to invest in, and use information to, improve assembly line throughput enabling cycle time compression that drives added revenue and higher profit.

The Engineering Factory MFD THRUPUT Game

MFD Pull Game



Cayuga Partners’ Tools . . . Cayuga Partners have developed a number of proprietary tools to facilitate consulting engagements, specifically in the areas of forecasting, inventory planning and supply chain modeling and customized tools and models for use by clients. We also provide sales and services support to business partners including Process Plant Computing Ltd. (PPCL) and Ultramax® Advanced Process Management.

Supply Chain Evaluation Model The Supply Chain Evaluation Model (SCEM) is a proprietary tool that combines optimization and simulation techniques to perform strategic planning considering tactical objectives and operational constraints. As such it produces plans that are executable - optimal and feasible. Uncertainty is explicitly represented using stochastic programming techniques. The SCEM framework is configurable to accurately represent unique environments and requirements, speed model development and facilitate integration with existing data sources and structures. Scenarios include Sourcing, Manufacturing, Distribution, Retail and Logistics Operations, Customer Demand Management, Inventory Planning and Outsourcing / Off-shoring Evaluation.

SCEM Inventory Simulation: Comparing 3 Distribution Plans



Geometric Process Control (GPC) Geometric Process Control (GPC) is an innovative approach to process analysis and control based on n-Dimensional Geometry from Process Plant Computing Ltd. (PPCL). Cayuga Partners provide sales, consulting and technical support to PPCL customers in North America. GPC consists of three modules: C-Visual Explorer (CVE), Response Surface Visualizer and C-Process Modeler (CPM). GPC uses n-dimensional geometry to take a large datasets (either manual data from spreadsheets or directly from plant historians and databases) to create visual outputs which summarize production for a given period. The output is visual giving knowledgeable practitioners new insights into processes. GPC provides a way to combine time series and discrete event data into a single view of the process for detailed analysis and reveals relationships among data across multiple process phases that are otherwise unobservable. Applications of GPC include:

• Process Analysis and Troubleshooting

• Production Reporting

• Alarm Setting and Rationalization

• Condition Monitoring and Fault Prediction

• Operator Guidance for Process Management and Control

C-Visual Explorer (CVE) plot highlights process observations that pass all 5 quality specifications (right)



Response Surface Visualizer projects downstream impact of changes to Process Variables

C-Process Modeler (C-PM) provides real-time operator guidance to clear alarms, keep

the process within its “Best Operating Zone” and suggests optimization moves



Ultramax®: A Learning Tool for Optimization and Adaptive Control

Ultramax® is a powerful tool which one need only know process inputs, outputs, and external influences to run. It operates by devising models centered around a perceived local optimum, which are actually Taylor series expansions about a point that can shift as optimization proceeds, starting with a Bayesian approach then progressing from limited linear models to quadratic models, and, finally, when sufficient data becomes available, to full second order models with first order interactions. Proprietary heuristics weight the influence of individual data points on the model as a function of age, credibility, and distance from the model center. Data is then acquired in a sequential fashion and trials are conducted, one at a time. Results from these tests are fed back into the sequential optimizer. This is followed by generation of new advice designed to both step toward (or onto) the optimum. Hence a jagged, yet efficient, hill climbing approach is followed as ideal performance is sought. Consequently, Ultramax® behaves as a multiple input, multiple output adaptive supervisory controller, adjusting for changes to optimization requirements and external conditions while learning to optimally control a process in the act of optimizing it. Results for a power plant optimization are shown below.

Typical Ultramax® process improvement profile



InvOpt.com



CABLE: Capacity Allocation Based on Logistics Effects

cp capabilities - overview (3)

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