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May 2020 COVID-19 - Potential implications on Banking and Capital Markets Managing the financial and business impacts

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  • May 2020

    COVID-19 - Potentialimplications on Bankingand Capital Markets Managing the financial and business impacts

  • Overview of Banking and Capital Markets Sector in Ghana

    The Coronavirus and its Impact on financial services

    Mitigating measures adopted by Government of Ghana (GoG) and the Central Bank

    Managing the Financial and Business Impact on Banking

    03

    08

    12

    15

    02

    Content

  • COVID-19 - Potential implications on Banking and Capital Markets

    03

    Overview of Bankingand Capital MarketsSector in Ghana

  • 2016 2017 2018 2019

    No.

    of b

    ranc

    hes

    No.

    of b

    anks

    Banks Branches

    Number of Banks and Branches

    40

    20

    0

    2,000

    1,000

    0

    Ghana’s banking sector is regulated by the Bank of Ghana (“BoG” or the “Central Bank”), which was original-ly set up by the Bank of Ghana Ordinance (No. 34) of 1957, passed by the British Parliament. The Central Bank has since undergone various legislative changes, and currently operates under the Bank of Ghana Act, 2002 (Act 612). The Banks and Specialised Deposit-Tak-ing Institutions Act, 2016 (Act 930) also provide comple-mentary supervisory powers to the BoG.

    Following the a clean-up initiated by the Central Bank, the sector has seen the total number of banks reduce from 30 as at the end of 2018 to 23 as at the end of 2019.

    In terms of performance, the banking sector recorded 22.9% growth in total assets from GHS105.1 billion at Dec 2018 to GHS129.1 billion as at Dec 2019, whilst profit after tax (PAT) increased by 38% y-o-y to GHS3.3 billion in 2019. Total customer deposits also shot up by 22% to GHS83.5 billion as at Dec 2019. The following are snap-shots of the banking sector’s performance in 2019 relative to 2018.

    The BoG embarked on banking sector reforms or ‘clean-up’ exercise which was aimed at strengthening the banking sector and increasing the capital base of commercial banks in Ghana. The reforms led to some banks exiting the market voluntarily, whilst others had their licenses revoked due to extreme liquidity challenges and regulatory breaches. The sector also saw some mergers largely induced by the clean up. The banking sector clean up, although generated mixed reactions from key stakeholders, is largely acclaimed to be partly responsible for the improved performance of the sector in 2019.

    Banking Sector

    COVID-19 - Potential implications on Banking and Capital Markets

    04

    Overview of Ghana’s Banking Sector

    Banking Sector reforms in Ghana

    Performance of the Banking Sector

    CommercialBanks

    Rural& QuasiBanks

    Savings& Loans

    Institutions

    Bank of Ghana(Regulator)

    1,342 1,483 1,515 1,145

    33 34 30 23

  • COVID-19 - Potential implications on Banking and Capital Markets

    05

    23.8% growth in gross loans from GHS36.5 bn at Dec 2018 to GHS45.2 bn as at Dec 2019

    5.2% Decline in non-performing loans from GHS6.6 bn at Dec 2018 to GHS6.3 bn at Dec 2019.

    22.2% growth in customer deposits from GHS68.3 bn at Dec 2018 to GHS83.5 bn at Dec 2019.

    1% point decrease in average commercial banks’ lending rates from 24.0% in 2018 to 23.1% in 2019.

    3% points improvement in cost-to-income ratio, from 84.3% in 2018 to 81.2% in 2019.

    37.7% increase in PAT from GHS2.4 bn in 2018 to GHS3.3 bn.

    The sector has recently (2017-2018) undergone key reforms, leading to a “clean up” of the sector of some weakly capitalized banks, banks with severe liquidity challenges and banks with serious regulatory breaches relating to source of capital. A key component of the reforms was the requirement for banks to recapitalize to a regulatory minimum capital of GHS400 million by end of 2018. Other more recent components of the reforms include the following:

    - Issue of the final Corporate Governance Directive for compliance by - banks in Dec 2018- The creation of the Ghana Amalgamated Trust (GAT) in Jan 2019 to - raise funds to support the recapitalization of well managed but weakly - capitalized local banks.

    BoG introduced new bank notes with upgraded security features into circulation in May 2019.

    Issue of BoG Guidelines for Allocation of Foreign Exchange through Forward Auctions in October 2019

    Issue of Guidance on the Utilisation of Capital and Liquidity Releases to Banks and Savings and Deposit Institutions (SDIs) in March 2020

    Key performance highlights

    Recent developments

    23.8% 5.2% 22.2%

    1% 3% 37.7%¢

  • COVID-19 - Potential implications on Banking and Capital Markets

    06

    Capital marketsOverview of Ghana’s capital market

    Ghana’s capital market is gradually playing a pivotal role in attracting long-term capital financing for economic activities. The largest capital market is the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE), which became authorised under the Stock Exchange Act of 1971 (Act 384) in 1990.

    GSE recorded a total market capitalization of GH¢61.1 billion at the end of 2018 compared to GH¢58.8 billion in 2017. This increase was attributed to the listing of MTN Ghana and Digicut Production & Advertising Ltd.

    At the end of 2019, there were a total of thirty-nine (39) listed companies on the Bourse with thirty-four (34) equities listed on the main market of the Exchange and four (4) on the Ghana Alternative Market (GAX), a submarket of the GSE. Aside the GAX, the GSE contains two other submarkets, namely The Ghana Fixed Income Market (GFIM) and the Ghana Commodity Exchange (GCX). The main purpose of the submarkets are explained as follows:

    • Ghana Alternative Exchange (GAX) is a parallel market operated by the GSE which focuses on businesses with potential for growth including start-ups and existing enterprises, both small and medium.

    • The Ghana Fixed Income Market (GFIM) of the GSE is the major platform for trading of debt securities. A total of 129 debt instruments were listed on the GFIM in 2018 compared to 125 debt instruments at the end of the year 2017.

    • In order to strengthen the link between capital market and agricultural sector, Ghana Commodity Exchange (GCX) was launched in 2018 to link food crop producers to buyers to secure competitive prices for their produce, provide a guaranteed market and storage of quality graded grains and cereals.

    TullowOil Ltd.

    AngloGoldAshanti

    MTNGH Ecobank StandardChartered

    Bank

    26.83%24.8%

    15.88%

    6.3%4.62%

    Mar

    ket C

    apita

    lizat

    ion

    %

    Top five most capitalized firms in 2018

    30%

    25%

    20%

    15%

    10%

    0%

    Mining &PetroleumFinanceICTFood andBeverageDistrubutionManufacturingInsuranceETFAdvertising andProductionEducation

    23.17%

    52.50%

    15.88%2.71%

    2.66%2.03%0.68%0.04%0.02%

    0.02%

    23.17%

    52.50%

    15.88%

    2.71%2.66%2.03%0.68%

    Market Concentration by Sector in 2018

    0.04%0.02%0.02%

  • COVID-19 - Potential implications on Banking and Capital Markets

    07

    Key performance highlights

    27.2% increase in total value of equities traded on the GSE- from GHS518 m in 2017 to GHS659 m in 2018.

    23.2% increase in total value of trades on the GFIM- from GHS30 bn in 2017 to GHS 37 bn n 2018.

    12.2% drop in The GSE- Composite index (GSE-CI) from 2,572.2 at 31 Dec 2018 to 2,257.2 at 31 Dec 2019.

    7.7% growth in market capitalization for the GSE- from GHS58.8 bn at 31 Dec 2017 to GHS61.1 bn at 31 Dec 2018.

    56.4% growth in outstanding Gov’t Securities on the GFIM- from GHS52.1 bn at Dec 2018 to GHS81.5 bn at Dec 2019.

    46.7% increase in Central Security Depository (CSD’s) record of volume traded- from 37.9 bn in 2018 to 55.6 bn in 2019.

    27.2% 23.2% 12.2%

    7.7% 56.4% 46.7%

    The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) revoked the licenses of fifty-three (53) fund management companies in November 2019 for continu-ous breach of the requirements under relevant securities laws, rules or conditions, despite opportunities provided to them by the SEC within a reason-able period of time to resolve all regulatory breaches.

    Recent developments

    ¢

  • The Coronavirus andits impact onfinancial services

    COVID-19 - Potential implications on Banking and Capital Markets

    08

  • The novel coronavirus (“Covid-19”) was reported to have emerged from Wuhan in China towards the end of December 2019, and has since spread across the world, affecting over 200 countries and territories as at the end of April 2020.

    Coronavirus symptoms include; Fever, a runny nose, cough, sore throat, possibly a headache. There is no specific treatment for COVID-19 in

    COVID-19 - Potential implications on Banking and Capital Markets

    COVID-19History and Trend

    Ghana nor any part of the world. Most of the time, symptoms will go away on their own. Doctors relieve symptoms by prescribing a pain or fever or cough medication.

    As at 13th May 2020, Covid-19infections had risen to about 4,425,656 cases, out of which about 1,657,718 people had recovered with 2,470,173 deaths recorded globally. This works out to a recov-

    ery rate of about 37.5% and mortality rate of 6.73%.

    The first two COVID-19 cases were reported in Ghana on 12 March 2020 and escalated to 5,408 cases, with 24 deaths and 514 recoveries as at 13 May 2020. This works to a recovery rate of about 9.4% and mortality rate of about 4.4% as at 13th May 2020.

    09

    13-May

    COVID-19 cases in Ghana as at 13 May 2020

    Percentagedistribution ofGhana’s COVID-19 cases by Gender

    Female39% Male

    61%

  • COVID-19 - Potential implications on Banking and Capital Markets

    10

    Impact of COVID-19on financial services

    Significant fall in bond yields. For example in the United States, 10-year bond has tumbled below 0.5% at the end of April 2020

    Increase probability of loan default as other businesses experience financial distress as a result of COVID-19

    A sharp drop in interest rates and increased volatility in securities and Foreign Exchange (FX) prices increase banks’ market risk, potentially leading to losses

    Currently, increased volatility and decline in prices across many asset classes have impacted the trading books and increased market risk as well as counterparty credit risk

    Recent market stress may put liquidity pressure on banks and capital market firms, which may affect dividend payments and share buybacks

    If operating models of banks and capital market firms needs to change, it may become difficult for the Board of to continue to meet governance obligations

    Lending and access to capital likely to be more stringent as businesses are adversely impacted. companies with in-built resilience will have the advantage in accessing capital.

    Pressure on banks to invest in expansion of infrastructure and improve service quality. E.g invest-ment in more e-banking options

  • COVID-19 - Potential implications on Banking and Capital Markets

    11

    • As at 31 December 2019, the credit portfolio of the banking industry comprised private enterprises credit (63.8%), house-hold credit (20.8%) and public sector credit (15.4%). Credit to indigenous enterprises was the largest component of private sector credit, accounting for 55.4 % of total credit at December 2019 while foreign companies were allocated 8.4% of total credit from the banking sector, summing up to the 63.8% share allocated to private enterprises.

    • With a significant portion of credits to indigenous private enterprises, any disrup-tion of economic activities resulting from COVID-19 will expose banks to credit risk.

    Credit analysis• In terms of credit distribution, the service sector had the highest share of credit (24.1%) as at December 2019 followed by the commerce and finance sector (20.9%). The third largest recipient of credit was the manufacturing sector which received 10.9% of the total credit issued by banks in Ghana.

    • These sectors also recorded high Non-Performing Loans (“NPLs”) as at December 2019. The commerce & finance industry accounted for the highest proportion of NPLs at 26.2% while the service and manu-facturing industries respectively accounted for 16.9% and 13.4% of the industry’s NPLs as at December 2019. Giving that these industries are being hit the hardest by COVID-19 , the NPL situation is likely to worsen in these industries in the coming months.

    Credit risk exposure

    • Asset quality of the banking industry will broadly be under threat if COVID-19 contin-ues throughout the year. This is mainly because, industries with significant portions of bank credit as at December 2019 are also the hardest hit in Ghana. This is evidenced in the tourism and hospitality sectors (service industry), manufacturing, transport sector, commerce and construction industry.

    • Intensified loan recovery and credit risk management are some of the measures expected to sustain the gains made in the industry to prevent further deterioration and safeguard the assets of the banking sector.

    Impact of COVID-19on credits

    Sectors in Ghana being impacted by Covid-19

    Services- Tourismandhospitality

    Transportand storage- Public roadtransport- Aviation

    Electricity,Water &Gas- Oil & Gas

    Commerce &finance- Microfinanceinstitutions- Retail/Consumerproducts

    ConstructionManufacturing

    From the hardest to the least hit sector

    Industry distribution of bank credit - December 2019

    Industry distribution of Non-Perfoming Loans - December 2019

    Source:Bank ofGhanaandDeloitteanalysis

    Shareof total

    Source:Bank ofGhana andDeloitteanalysis

    Shareof total

  • COVID-19 - Potential implications on Banking and Capital Markets

    08

    Measures adoptedby Government ofGhana (GoG) and theCentral Bank

  • COVID-19 - Potential implications on Banking and Capital Markets

    12

    Measures takenby Government andBoG Directives in relationto COVID-19The key measures taken include:

    01 BoG has reduced the policy rate by 150 basis points from 16% to 14.5%, which is expected to reduce commercial banks' lending rates.

    02 The Capital Conservation Buffer (CCB) for banks of 3.0% is reduced to 1.5% of risk weighted assets. This is to enable banks provide the needed financial support to the economy. This effectively reduces the Capital Adequacy Require-ment from 13% to 11.5%.

    03BoG has agreed with banks and mobile money operators on measures to facilitate more efficient payments and promote digital forms of payments for the next three months, subject to review, effective March 20, 2020. These are:

    (i) All mobile money users can send up to GHS100 for free (excluding cash out). This includes sending to a recipient on the same network, or another network via the interoperability platform.

    (ii) All mobile phone subscribers are now permitted to use their already existing mobile phone registration details to be on-boarded for Minimum KYC Account.

    (iii) The daily transaction limits for mobile money have been increased.

  • COVID-19 - Potential implications on Banking and Capital Markets

    13

    04Provisioning for Loans in the “Other Loans Especially Mentioned” (OLEM) category is reduced from 10% to 5% for all banks and Specialised Deposit-Tak-ing Institutions (SDIs) as a policy response to loans that may experience difficulty in repayments due to slowdown in economic activity. Provisioning norms for loans in all other categories are maintained. This should provide capital relief to banks and SDIs in these uncertain times.

    05BoG has directed banks and other SDIs to desist from declaring or paying dividends and from making other distributions to shareholders for the finan-cial years 2019 and 2020 unless BoG is satisfied that the institution (bank/SDI) has met regular prudential requirements and is not relying on the additional liquidity released by the regulatory reliefs provided by BoG.

    08 On April 13, 2020, the IMF Executive Board approved the disbursement of US$1 billion to be drawn under the Rapid Credit Facility. The disbursement will help address the urgent fiscal and balance of payments needs that Ghana is facing, improve confidence, and catalyze support from other development partners.

    06GoG is also implementing a range of short term tax measures aimed at bring-ing relief to corporates and individuals and complimenting the fight against Covid-19. For details of the tax measures, please access our thought leadership report on the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy of Ghana. See links to various Deloitte articles on Covid-19 on the last page of this article.

    07The World Bank has provided $100 million to Ghana to assist the country in tackling the COVID-19 pandemic. This financing package includes $35 million in emergency support to help the country provide improved response systems. Under this emergency package the World Bank will support the Government of Ghana to help prevent, detect, and respond to the COVID-19 pandemic through the Ghana Emergency Preparedness and Response Project (EPRP). The EPRP will help strengthen Ghana’s National Laboratories by providing robust systems for the early detection of COVID-19 cases and providing real time disease surveillance and reporting systems of outbreaks.

  • COVID-19 - Potential implications on Banking and Capital Markets

    14

    Managing the Financialand Business Impacton Banking

  • COVID-19 - Potential implications on Banking and Capital Markets

    15

    Financial and business impacts

    • The Central Bank of Ghana has reduced the primary reserve requirement from 10% to 8% to provide more liquidity to banks.

    • Some institutions’ contingen-cy funding plans (CFPs) may have already been invoked and due to market volatility, there could be big swings in stress testing results and limit/threshold breaches. Some market partici-pants may already be experienc-ing some liquidity crunch.

    Liquiditymanagement

    • To ensure adequate liquidity across the Enterprise, close monitoring and daily liquidity stress testing vis-à-vis market liquidity indicators will be required.

    • It will be critical to assess the size and impact of liquidity shortfalls as part of stress testing, including impact to secured funding/assets sales. This information should be circulated to managers of liquidity risk (liquidity crisis teams) to assess the need to activate the CFPs.

    • Liquidity preservation actions should be part of banks’ CFPs and would include options for ensuring liquidity if the CFP has been invoked.

    • Having a bird’s eye view on modelling liquidity require-ments- i.e. requirements to be recalibrated based on emerging market conditions and likely future scenarios.

    • Banks should go beyond the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) requirements when communicating their liquidity status to regulators.

    • Risk weighted assets (RWA) may be impacted by higher charges from increased volatility levels and higher counterparty risks.

    • With a potentially less favorable economic outlook, banks’ loss allowances may be negatively impacted. Also, borrowers may want to refinance at longer maturities to lock in lower interest rates.

    Capital management

    • Assumptions driving the valuation of asset should be revisited and revised if need be.

    • Additional stress tests with different underlying scenarios specific to COVID-19 should be conducted.

    • If general economic condi-tions deteriorate and lead to lower GDP growth, there could be reduced demand for banking products and services.

    • The Central Bank recently reduced the policy rate by 150 basis points to 14.5%, as a result, banks’ net interest income will likely be challenged.

    Revenue and cost management

    Work with relevant departments and units globally to develop an understanding of potential revenue hits and outline steps for mitigation.

    Topic/Issue Current and potentialdevelopments

    Actions banks and capital marketsfirms should consider

  • Economic Impact of The Covid-19 Pandemic On The Economy Of Ghana review

    17

    Risk and controls

    • With clients potentially experiencing stressed financial conditions, credit quality/ratings may be affected.

    • Also, pledged collateral may experi-ence a decline in value.

    • Customers, both retail and institution-al, may resort to minimal or delayed payments on their loan balances.

    Loan book, covenants, and exception management

    • Find out which sectors/regions/clients are most at risk.

    • Reach out to clients with communications and information requests to provide tempo-rary help as appropriate.

    • Loan loss provisions under different economic scenarios should be reexamined.

    Currently, increased volatility and decline in prices across many asset classes have impacted the trading books and increased market risk as well as counterparty credit risk.

    Trading/ hedging strategies

    Capital allocations and hedging strategies across trading books should be revisited.

    Topic/Issue Current and potentialdevelopments

    Actions banks and capital marketsfirms should consider

    A sharp drop in interest rates and increased volatility in securities and forex prices increase market risk for banks and capital market firms, potentially leading to losses.

    Market risk • Revisit internal models capturing market risk and account for potentially higher correlation.

    • Communicate with the regulator if capital is adversely affected and materially differs from model-implied scenarios.

    Recent market events may have affected counterparties’ credit profile.

    Counterparty credit risk

    • Assess/revisit existing contracts with counterparties most at risk.

    • Work with market intermediaries to stay informed about any changes to counterpar-ties’ standing.

    Topic/Issue Current and potentialdevelopments

    Actions banks and capital marketsfirms should consider

  • COVID-19 - Potential implications on Banking and Capital Markets

    18

    If an entity’s operating model needs to change, it may become difficult for the board of directors to continue to meet governance obligations such as overseeing risk, providing credible challenge to management, and acting as responsible stewards of the organization.

    Riskgovernance

    Management should keep the board of directors adequately informed and seek their guidance on alternate operating procedures each step of the way.

    • Recent market stress may put liquidity pressure on banks, which may want to preserve capital by halting or reducing dividends and share buybacks.

    • BoG has directed banks and SDIs to desist from declaring or paying any dividends or distributing reserves to shareholders till further notice.

    Dividendsand share buybacks

    Assess institutional shareholder interest and preferences for share buybacks and dividends and communicate any potential changes

    LIBOR will be replaced with alternative reference rates in various jurisdictions by 2021.

    LIBORtransition

    Stay abreast of regulators’ guidance and market developments in the alternate reference rate markets such as the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) in the United States.

    • The COVID-19-induced market environment may negatively impact banks’ credit rating profile.

    • New systemic, country or other business risk factors may intensify and affect the credit worthiness of banks, counterparties and borrowers, especially in the high-yield grade.

    Creditratings

    • Stay in active communication with rating agencies and apprise them of changes to the credit standing.

    • Determine whether any rating actions flowing from COVID-19-induced stress would necessitate giving counterparties and borrow-ers some slack.

    Topic/Issue Current and potentialdevelopments

    Actions banks and capital marketsfirms should consider

    • Nonfinancial risks such as conduct risk/culture, model risk, third-party risk, and cyber risk may also become more pressing.

    • Potential disruptions to trading infrastructure may require that trades be rerouted to other venues, locations and countries.

    Nonfinancial risks

    • Rethink risk controls for alternate work arrangements and potential disruptions that would warrant a reassessment of conduct risk, cyber risk, and third-party risk.

    • Assess the extent to which model assump-tions reflect current and possibly future market conditions.

    • Obtain clarity from regulators about alternate trade routing.

  • COVID-19’s impact on individuals, communities and organiza-

    supply and demand dynamics, COVID-19 has already disrupted

    experienced in our economy. Rapidly changing social norms, restrictions on transportation, slowdown in the level of

    Financial risk implications ofCOVID-19 on banks

    May 2020

    -tion.

    from it in order to ensure resilience.

    Economic Impact of The Covid-19 Pandemic On The Economy Of Ghana review

    19

    Operational resilience

    • As the pandemic advances, some branches/offices may need to close temporarily, or employees may not want to come to work.

    • ATMs may need to remain open and have enough cash to dispense.

    Branch/ATM operations

    • Consider reducing branch hours or, if possible, utilizing only drive-through operations.

    • Assess opportunities to deliver services solely through digital channels.

    • Discuss possible impact on jobs and wages with staff early to avoid shocks and unnecessary fight-backs in case of heightened risk.

    Many institutions already have traders working from home and remote offices and some regulators have temporarily waived rules in this regard.

    Trade Compliance

    Be in close contact with industry groups and regulators for information and updates on obtaining waivers.

    Topic/Issue Current and potentialdevelopments

    Actions banks and capital marketsfirms should consider

    Links to previous articles

    Addressing thefinancial impact ofCOVID-19

    https://lnkd.in/dFQgf5Z

    Managing cash flowduring a period ofcrisis - Part 2

    https://lnkd.in/e_-yU_R

    Managing cash flowduring a period of crisis - Part 1

    https://lnkd.in/d-tb77y

    Economic Impact ofthe COVID-19 pandemicon the Economy ofGhana.

    https://lnkd.in/dbxcxQ8

    The outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic continues to have

    with uncertainties on full global recov-ery. The number of infections have increased rapidly over the past few weeks, with more than 1.5 million

    deaths as beginning of April. The United States of America (USA) has become the next epicenter of the pandemic,

    Italy reports world’s highest number of

    start of the pandemic.

    Ghana has equally seen a rapid surge in the number cases, adding more than

    recoveries and 5 deaths as at the beginning of April.

    COVID-19

    April 2020

    In view of this, the Government of Ghana has imposed a partial lockdown in the Greater Accra Metropolitan Area and the Greater Kumasi Metropolitan Area for a period of two (2) weeks,

    the spread. In addition, the Government plans to undertake the following initiatives:

    release of a minimum of GH¢1 billion to households and businesses;

    make available a GH¢3 billion facility to support the pharmaceutical, hospitality, service and manufacturing sectors;

    get banks to roll out a six-month moratorium of principal repayments to entities in the airline and hospitality sectors;

    absorption of water bills for all citizens for the next three (3) months; and

    tax exemptions for all health workers for the next three months and an additional

    frontline health workers.

    As some parts of the country go on partial lockdown, a sharp decline in demand is expected as consumers stay at home and stop spending. Business activities will slow down considerably and companies risk being unable to manage the disruptions.

    This article which is part 2 in the series, will suggest more ways organisations can mitigate damages to their business during this volatile event.

    As a typical “black swan” event, COVID-19 took the world by complete

    -

    of Hubei province in central China in December 2019. As at the middle of March 2020, the virus has infected over 160,000 people, and led to more than 6,000 deaths. More than 150 countries are now reporting positive cases of COVID-19 as the virus spreads globally, impacting communities, ecosystems, and supply chains far beyond China.

    Ghanacases on 12 March 2020. Since then, over 20 more cases have been

    part of measures to tackle the situation, announced the release of USD 100

    COVID-19

    March 2020

    -ment include, a suspension of all public gatherings for the next four weeks, closure of all schools until further notice,

    citizens into the country. These restric-tions are likely to have adverse impact

    hospitality, air travel and tourism sectors. In addition, there is likely to be a

    goods in Europe and Asia leading to a

    businesses that produce for export.

    The focus of most businesses now is on protecting employees, understanding the risks to their business, and manag-ing the supply chain disruptions caused

    COVID-19. The full impact of this epidemic on businesses and supply chains is still unknown, with the most optimistic forecasts predicting that normalcy in China may return by April,1 with a full global recovery lagging depending on how other geographies

    However, one thing is certain: this

    This article will suggest ways organisa-tions can mitigate damages to their business during this volatile event.

    April 2020

    Economic Impact ofthe Covid-19 Pandemic onthe Economy of GhanaSummary of Fiscal Measures and Deloitte views

    The number of new infections and deaths continues to rise rapidly and, as yet, there are no signs of Covid-19 being brought under control. Whilst the vast majority of infections and deaths have thus far occurred in China, concern is rising across the world that a global pandemic is upon us.

    Businesses in Asia and some parts of Europe have been severely impacted. Shopping malls and restaurants are deserted, whilst travel and tourism revenues have collapsed.

    It is possible that Covid-19 may burn out as temperatures start to rise during Spring and into Summer in the northern hemisphere, but at this point nobody knows. It is therefore important that businesses are proactive in assessing their capability to

    they act decisively to mitigate actual or potential issues.

    Navigating Volatility & Distress

    March 2020

    Liquidityforecastingand headroom

    Working capitaland supply chain

    Impactedsectors

    Financial riskimplications ofCOVID-19 on banks

    https://lnkd.in/d5RyTU7

  • © 2020. For more information, contact Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited.www2.deloitte.com/gh Deloitte Ghana

    Capital raising servicesHelping banks and capital market firms to raise additional capital to address Covid-19-induced shortfalls and funding gaps.

    Financial restructuringHelping banks and capital market firms deal with urgency when appropri-ate. Together with management, we prepare and review turnaround business plans, highlight key sensitivities, and provide operational support along the value chain

    Business modellingScenario modelling to help assess the impact of COVID-19 on budgets andforecasts. We assist companies in the preparation of forecasts and set-up acomprehensive reporting system that allows them to assess the cashgeneration of their operations.

    Independent business reviews (IBRs)IBRs for banks and capital market firms to assist in evaluating cases for additional funding from shareholders and debt-providers

    Value creation servicesWe help banks and capital market firms to review current business models, internal processes and procedures with the objective of identifying ineffi-ciencies and recommending solutions that could help minimise or counter the impact of Covid-19 on the business.

    Debt advisory and restructuringWe prepare debt restructuring plans and advice on optimal capitalstructures for businesses. We assess serviceable debt and covenants obligations and assist with debt restructuring for companies

    Cyber risk assessmentCyber risk assessment along with recommended solutions given theonslaught of “work from home” that is occurring globally.

    Contacts

    Charles Larbi-OdamCountry Managing ExecutiveDeloitte [email protected]+233 307 086 330

    Dennis Ishmael BrownManagerFinancial [email protected]+233 243 205 800

    Yaw LarteyLeaderFinancial [email protected]+233 244 158 377

    How can Deloitte help?