COVID-19 Modeling September 4, 2020

Presentation available at:dfr.vermont.gov

2Source: Johns Hopkins University - September 2, 2020

National Data

99 days 43 days 28 days 15 days 17 days 23 days

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Vermont Data

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Vermont Weekly Totals

Sources: Vermont Department of Health (week ending Thursday)

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August: By the Numbers

● Tests: 68,381*

● Cases: 214

● Test Positivity: 0.32%

● Averaged 2 Individuals Requiring Hospitalization

● Averaged Less Than 1 Individual Requiring ICU

● Deaths: 0

Source: Vermont Department of Health; *unique results reported to VDH (note: not a measure of individuals as individuals may be tested more than once over time )

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Vermont Monthly COVID-19 Totals

Source: Vermont Department of Health

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New Cases by County

Updated: 8/27/20

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RESTART VERMONT

1. Syndromic Surveillance2. Viral Growth & Reproductive Rates3. Percentage of New Positive Tests4. Hospital & Critical Care Bed Capacity

Reopening Metrics

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Data Point 1: Syndromic Surveillance● Summary: Percentage of visits with COVID-19 like illness and Influenza diagnosis● Warning Flag: Percentage of visits exceeding 4% for multiple consecutive days

Source: Vermont Department of Health - September 3, 2020

Measure currently well below warning flag level

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Data Point 2: Viral Growth and Reproductive Rates ● Summary: Case growth measured by daily, 3-day, 7-day, and effective reproductive rate (Rt)● Warning Flags: Sustained viral growth that would lead to <30% of open ICU beds

Source: Vermont Department of Health - September 3, 2020

Continued low growth rate

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Data Point 3: Percentage of New Positive Tests● Summary: Percent of tests resulting in a new positive case● Warning Flags: New positives represent >5% of daily results

Source: Vermont Department of Health - September 3, 2020

Continued low test positivity

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Data Point 4: Hospital & Critical Care Beds● Summary: Number of occupied and unoccupied medical surgical and ICU beds● Warning Flags: Reduction in ICU open beds to less than 30%

Source: Vermont Department of Health - September 3, 2020

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Higher Education &K-12 Reopening

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National: New Cases in Last 14 Days

Source: Raw data from Johns Hopkins University—September 4, 2020

Vermont Model

Source: Oliver Wyman Forecast Model - September 2, 2020

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Vermont College / University Fall 2020 Data

17Source: Vermont Department of Health - September 3, 2020; tests measured as results reported to VDH by day

Increased testing: 24,300+ tests over the last 7 days

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27,174 Tests Administered

33 Positive Tests

0.12% Positivity Rate

Vermont Colleges & UniversitiesTesting as of September 3, 2020

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15,914 Tests Administered

13 Positive Tests

0.11% Positivity Rate

Burlington Area Colleges & Universities Testing as of September 3, 2020

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Regional Data

21Sources: COVID-19 Tracking Project, New York Time Covid-19 Database & Government of Quebec

Regional Monitoring: New Cases Week Over Week

Positive Cases August 28th to September 3rd

14.69% Increase in New Confirmed Cases

Positive Cases August 21st to August 27th

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Regional Monitoring: Week Over Week Case Growth Since May 21, 2020

Sources: COVID-19 Tracking Project, New York Time Covid-19 Database & Government of Quebec

Cases Have Increased in the Northeast for two weeks in a row

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Travel Map Update

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Updated Travel Map

Source: Raw data from Johns Hopkins University—September 4, 2020 (dynamic map available at Vermont ACCD site)

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Improving: Moving from Yellow or Red to Green Worsening: Moving to Yellow or Red

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Updated Travel Map

Travel Map Expanded