covid-19 market update · cox automotive leading indicators source: cox automotive 14 autotrader...
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COVID-19 Market UpdateE c o n o m i c & I n d u s t r y I n s i g h t s Te a m
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COVID-19 IMPACT VARIES PER COUNTY (CASES PER MILLION)
Source: CDC 2
WEEKLY INITIAL CLAIMS STAY AT RECORD LEVELS
Source: U.S. Department of Labor 3
CONSUMER SENTIMENT IMPROVED MODESTLY OVER LAST TWO WEEKS
Source: Morning Consult 4
Morning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment on Monday was down 25% since February 29
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1/1/20 1/8/20 1/15/20 1/22/20 1/29/20 2/5/20 2/12/20 2/19/20 2/26/20 3/4/20 3/11/20 3/18/20 3/25/20 4/1/20 4/8/20 4/15/20 4/22/20 4/29/20
ICS Value (7-Day Average)
CONSUMER SENTIMENT DECLINE VARIES ACROSS MAJOR MARKETS
Source: Morning Consult 5
DELAY IN VEHICLE PURCHASE HOLDS STEADY, WITH FLUCTUATING DELAY TIMELINES
Source: 2020 Cox Automotive COVID-19 Consumer Impact Study 6
Delaying Vehicle Purchase/Lease*
Q10. Have you done, or do you think you will do any of the following because of the coronavirus? *Note: Added “have done” in Wave 4
Q17a1. How do you anticipate the coronavirus will change the timing of when you purchase or lease a vehicle, if at al?
*Among 6-month auto intenders who will delay purchasing/leasing a vehicle
Anticipated Delay in
Vehicle Purchase*(among those planning to delay purchase)
7%
17%
28%35% 34% 33% 34% 34% 31%
Mar5-6
Mar13-14
Mar20-22
Mar27-28
Apr3-4
Apr10-11
Apr17-18
Apr24-25
May1-3
46% of those delaying
say their financial
situation has been
extremely/very
impacted by COVID
32%14% 18%
10% 8%17% 24%
5%
11% 10%
4% 5%
13% 2%
32%43% 40%
36% 41%
39%37%
30% 31% 33%
49% 46%32% 37%
Mar20-22
Mar27-28
Apr3-4
Apr10-11
Apr17-18
Apr24-25
May1-3
Not sure 6+ months 3-6 months Up to 2 months
RETAIL TREND ESTIMATE - NEW
Source: Cox Automotive 7
-50.5%
-80.0%
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
2/1
/20
20
2/3
/20
20
2/5
/20
20
2/7/202
0
2/9
/20
20
2/1
1/2
02
0
2/1
3/2
02
0
2/1
5/2
02
0
2/1
7/2
02
0
2/1
9/2
02
0
2/2
1/2
02
0
2/2
3/2
02
0
2/2
5/2
02
0
2/2
7/2
02
0
2/2
9/2
02
0
3/2
/20
20
3/4
/20
20
3/6
/20
20
3/8
/20
20
3/1
0/2
02
0
3/1
2/2
02
0
3/14/2
02
0
3/1
6/2
02
0
3/1
8/2
02
0
3/2
0/2
02
0
3/2
2/2
02
0
3/2
4/2
02
0
3/2
6/2
02
0
3/2
8/2
02
0
3/3
0/2
02
0
4/1
/20
20
4/3
/20
20
4/5
/20
20
4/7
/20
20
4/9
/20
20
4/1
1/2
02
0
4/1
3/2
02
0
4/1
5/2
02
0
4/1
7/2
02
0
4/19/2
02
0
4/2
1/2
02
0
4/2
3/2
02
0
4/2
5/2
02
0
4/2
7/2
02
0
4/2
9/2
02
0
5/1
/20
20
5/3
/20
20
DAILY NEW RETAIL % CHG YoY vs SAME DAY OF WEEK
YoY % Chg 2019 YoY % Chg 2020
NEW VEHICLE SALES FALL IN APRIL
Source: Cox Automotive Analysis of BEA Data 8
5.0
7.0
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
17.0
19.0
January February March April May June July August September October November December
New Light Vehicle Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (Millions)
2019 2020
NEW VEHICLE SALES FALL IN APRIL
Source: Cox Automotive Analysis of Motor Intelligence 9
-80%
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
% Change YoY
RETAIL TREND ESTIMATE - USED
Source: Cox Automotive 10
-50.0%
-80.0%
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
2/1
/20
20
2/3
/20
20
2/5
/20
20
2/7
/20
20
2/9/202
0
2/1
1/2
02
0
2/1
3/2
02
0
2/1
5/2
02
0
2/1
7/2
02
0
2/1
9/2
02
0
2/2
1/2
02
0
2/2
3/2
02
0
2/2
5/2
02
0
2/2
7/2
02
0
2/2
9/2
02
0
3/2
/20
20
3/4
/20
20
3/6
/20
20
3/8
/20
20
3/1
0/2
02
0
3/1
2/2
02
0
3/1
4/2
02
0
3/1
6/2
02
0
3/1
8/2
02
0
3/2
0/2
02
0
3/2
2/2
02
0
3/2
4/2
02
0
3/26/2
02
0
3/2
8/2
02
0
3/3
0/2
02
0
4/1
/20
20
4/3
/20
20
4/5
/20
20
4/7
/20
20
4/9
/20
20
4/1
1/2
02
0
4/1
3/2
02
0
4/1
5/2
02
0
4/1
7/2
02
0
4/1
9/2
02
0
4/2
1/2
02
0
4/2
3/2
02
0
4/2
5/2
02
0
4/2
7/2
02
0
4/2
9/2
02
0
5/1
/20
20
5/3
/20
20
DAILY USED RETAIL % CHG YoY vs SAME DAY OF WEEK
YoY % Chg 2019 YoY % Chg 2020
2020 MMR WEEKLY PRICE DECLINES DECELERATING AS MMR RETENTION GAP NARROWS
Source: Manheim, Cox Automotive 11
3-Year-Old MMR Index fell 0.8% in aggregate last week and MMR Retention Gap narrowed to 0.2%
-1.7%
-3.0%
-2.9%-1.9%
-0.8%
-8.6%
-8.2%
-6.0%
-2.7%
-0.2%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
3-Year-Old MMR Weekly Change and MMR Retention Gap by Week
3YOMMR Weekly Change MMR Retention Gap
DISCONNECT BETWEEN RETAIL AND WHOLESALE PRICES
Source: Cox Automotive 12
Since peak in wholesale prices in week 11, model year 2017 wholesale prices are down 11% while retail prices are down only 1.8%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
104%
106%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51
MY 2017 Retail and Wholesale Price Indices (wk1=100)
2019 Retail Index 2020 Retail Index 2019 Wholesale Index 2020 Wholesale Index
DAYS’ SUPPLY COMING DOWN FROM HIGHS DURING CRISIS
Source: Cox Automotive 13
0.0 Days
20.0 Days
40.0 Days
60.0 Days
80.0 Days
100.0 Days
120.0 Days
140.0 Days
160.0 Days
01
/08/
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01
/10/
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/12/
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01
/14/
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01
/16/
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01
/18/
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/20/
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/22/
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/24/
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/26/
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/28/
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01
/30/
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02
/01/
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02
/03/
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/05/
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/07/
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02
/09/
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02
/11/
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/13/
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/15/
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/17/
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02
/19/
20
02
/21/
20
02
/23/
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02
/25/
20
02/2
7/2
00
2/2
9/2
00
3/0
2/2
00
3/0
4/2
00
3/0
6/2
00
3/0
8/2
00
3/1
0/2
00
3/1
2/2
00
3/1
4/2
00
3/1
6/2
00
3/1
8/2
003
/20
/20
03
/22/
20
03
/24/
20
03
/26/
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03
/28/
20
03
/30/
20
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/01/
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/03/
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/05/
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/07/
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/09/
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/11/
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/13/
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/15/
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/17/
20
04/1
9/2
00
4/2
1/2
00
4/2
3/2
00
4/2
5/2
00
4/2
7/2
00
4/2
9/2
00
5/0
1/2
00
5/0
3/2
0
Ret
ail I
nve
nto
ry D
ays'
Su
pp
ly
Days Supply Wholesale Inventory and Retail Inventory
Rolling 7 Day Supply Retail Rolling 7 day Supply Wholesale
COX AUTOMOTIVE LEADING INDICATORS
Source: Cox Automotive 14
Autotrader visits were again up double digits y/y throughout the weekend
Kelley Blue Book visits were positive y/y on Saturday again
Dealer.com continues to see both New and Used Vehicle Form Submissions outperform
Dealertrack unique credit applications on same-store basis were down 15% y/y last week,
another strong week of recovery
Xtime saw a 36% decrease y/y last week in consumers having their cars serviced, which was
another week of improvement
SALES IMPACT VARIES BY DMA AS EVIDENCED BY UNIQUE CREDIT APPS
Source: Cox Automotive 15
ZERO PERCENT FINANCING GAINING SHARE DUE TO CURRENT INCENTIVES
Source: Cox Automotive 16
0.00%
5.00%
10.00%
15.00%
20.00%
25.00%
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar
-17
Ap
r-1
7
May
-17
Jun
-17
Jul-
17
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct
-17
No
v-17
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Mar
-18
Ap
r-1
8
May
-18
Jun
-18
Jul-
18
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct
-18
No
v-18
Dec
-18
Jan
-19
Feb
-19
Mar
-19
Ap
r-1
9
May
-19
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Sep
-19
Oct
-19
No
v-19
Dec
-19
Jan
-20
Feb
-20
Mar
-20
Ap
r-2
0
May
-20
0% APR Finance Share