Cottonseed Outlook 2003/04

Ben MorganNational Cottonseed Products Association, Inc.

Gross Domestic Product% Change

-3%-2%

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98

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What Happened??

USDA Forecast Ending Sep 30 CSO Stocks

010

203040

506070

8090

Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02 Sep-02 Oct-02 Nov-02

Million lbs.

$0.00

$0.05

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01/02 Actual Avg Price

U.S. Cotton ProductionUSDA 8/12/03

17.104

13.918216.968 17.188

20.30317.209

0

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10

15

20

25

98/99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 f

Harvested acres Production (mill. Bales)

Cotton ProductionUSDA / NCPA Est. 8/12/02

(000 bales)

01/02 02/03 03/04 f Southeast 5,595 3,276 4,418 Mid-South 6,936 5,771 5,430 Southwest 4,524 5,368 4,750 West 3,248 2,794 2,506

TOTAL 20,303 17,209 17,104

Cottonseed SupplyUSDA / NCPA Est. 8/12/03

(000 tons)

01/02 02/03 03/04 f Southeast 1,895 1,117 1,518 Mid-South 2,584 2,104 2,053 Southwest 1,815 1,964 1,797 West 1,158 999 917

TOTAL 7,452 6,184 6,284

Cottonseed Production/Bale

00/01 01/02 02/03 Texas 800 803 730 Mississippi 774 732 720 Tennessee 814 718 711 So. Carolina 702 648 672

US 702 648 672

Cotton Linter Exports(Oct – Sep year / metric tons)

00/01 01/02 02/03 p Oct-Jun

China 14,401 13,887 3,406

Israel 5,762 6,476 2,492

Japan 4,152 5,288 2,473

Canada 2,865 2,042 1,225

Germany 1,069 4,720 2,004

Totals 32,081 40,597 20,795

                                                                                      

Crush Factors

World Veg Oil Consumption

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Crush Factors

World Oilseed Meal Consumption

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Crush Factors

U. S. Veg Stocks/Use Ratio

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Crush Factors

                                                                                      

World Veg Oil Ending Stocks

0123456789

million metric tons

Crush Factors

                                                                                      

World Veg Oil Stocks/Use Ratio

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Australian Cotton Production

million 480-lb. bales

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Malaysian Palm Oil Production

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mill. metric tons

Crush Factors

Crush Factors

NCPA Activities

Monitoring whole cottonseed definition in California – likely to set a limit of 15% FFA

Project to consider acetone extraction process

This Just In

YTD Crush = 2.499 million tons

Ending seed stocks = 383,580 tons

Oil Mill Receipts = 3.1 million tons

Based on NCPA’s July Survey of Oil Mill Members

CA Cottonseed S&D

01/02 02/03 03/04 f Upland

Cotton (000 bales)

1,770 1,460 1,450

Seed

Production (tons)

751,000 534,000 520,000

Deficit 549,000 766,000 780,000

Cottonseed Supply(000 tons, USDA Aug ‘03)

02/03 03/04 USDA

03/04 NCPA

Begin stocks 400 400 380

Production 6,184 6,284 6,100

Imports 130 225 25

Total supply 6,714 6,909 6,505

Cottonseed Demand(000 tons, USDA, Aug ‘03)

02/03 03/04 USDA

03/04 NCPA

Crush 2,515 2,650 2,400 Exports 375 300 280 Planting 140 140 140 Feed & Other 3,284 3,419 3,385 Total Use 6,314 6,509 6,205 End Stocks 400 400 300

LINTER PRODUCTION(Based on current forecast & NCPA data)

01/02 02/03 e 03/04 f Crushings 2,791 2,515 2,400

1st Cut 154 136 127

Second/Other Cuts

303 268 258

Total supply (million lbs)

457 404 385