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CRAVEzero-WS @ISEC nZEB technologies and cost development

Co-funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European Union

Benjamin Köhler (Fraunhofer ISE)

ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018

Data and Methodology Required data, data sources, method

01

Relevant technologies Active, passive, renewable

02

Cost reduction potentials Top-down

03

Discussion/ Conclusion 04

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CRAVEzero Cost Reduction and market Acceleration for Viable nearly zero-Energy buildings

ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018


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ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018

Data and Methodology Required data, data sources, methodology

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• Technical parameters:

• Technical lifetime

• Installed power (kW)

• Efficiency

• Additional:

• Past market development and market forecasts

• Economic parameters:

• Absolut and specific investment cost (inflation-adjusted)

• O&M cost

• Learning rate

• Stage in lifecycle

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ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018


•Twelve case studies are foundation

• Office, single- and multifamily buildings

• Information about HVAC and on-site renewable energy technologies

•Additional detailed literature review

Brought together in technology database (base year 2016)

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ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018


• Two main approaches to determine cost reduction potentials:

• Top-down

• Bottom-up

•Mainly Top-down approach applied due to data availability

• For identified critical/ very important technologies Bottom-up analysis

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ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018


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• Top-down

• Costs decreases in relation to increased cumulative production (learning effects)

• Learning rate describes the reduction in percent with each doubling of the cumulative volume

• Needed data: investment costs, learning rate, market forecast (EU)

• Result: cost curve for each technology

• Bottom-up

• Determine all technological cost drivers:

• Technological improvements

• Shift of manufacturing processes

• Potential pathways for future cost reductions

• Materials, Utilities, Labor, Depreciation, Maintenance

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ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018


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ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018


• Active:

• Heat pumps (HP; aerothermal, ground source)

• Oil and gas boiler (reference; currently widespread in buildings)

• Biomass boiler

• Air conditioning

• Ventilation (decentralized and central with heat recovery)

• Thermal storage

• Electricity storage

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02

Re

leva

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tech

no

logi

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ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018


• Passive:

• Insulation of building envelope

• Free ventilation

• Night cooling

• Daylight

• Shading

• Renewable:

• PV

• Solar thermal

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02

Re

leva

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tech

no

logi

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ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018


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ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018

Cost reduction potentials Top-down – exemplary procedure

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03

Co

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1

10

100

1,000

10,000

10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

Costs [€/kWp]

Volume [GWp]

Learning curve PV

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048

Volume [GWp]

Year

PV marketcurve EU

ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018


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• Cost reduction potential of 49 %

• Costs will decrease from 1,370 €/kWp to approx. 700 €/kWp

• Range of 610 €/kWp to 810 €/kWp (-41 % to -56 %)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

2016 2020 2024 2028 2032 2036 2040 2044 2048

Costs [€/kWp]

Year

Cost development PV

ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018


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Co

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• Cost reduction

potentials

between 1 % and

65 %

• Stationary

batteries have

highest reduction

potential >65,4 %

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046

Cost reductions

Year

Cost reduction potentials 2050

Electrical storage Decentral Ventilation PV

Central ventilation Solar thermal Thermal storage

Air conditioner Aerothermal heat pump Ground source heat pump

Biomass boiler Gas boiler Oil boiler

ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018


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ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018

Discussion/ Conclusion

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04

Dis

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•Most technologies needed for nZEBs already available

• Latest and most efficient ones still have high cost reduction potential

• Probably new technologies will enter into market in coming years which ones (e.g. Fuel-cell CHP) and how fast they develop cannot be foreseen high uncertainties and therefore no cost curves developed!

• Challenge: Quantification of costs and effects of passive technologies/ strategies

ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018

Discussion/ Conclusion

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04

Dis

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• Top-down:

• Cost reduction potentials until 2050 between 1% to 65%

• Technologies with highest cost reduction potential: Storages, ventilation and on-site renewables

• Bottom-up:

• PV: Efficiency optimizations and lower material input

• Solar thermal systems: Less material use and switching to cheaper

• Electrical storages: Economies of scale and technological improvements

• Highly insulated building envelope and low-tech, passive strategies are essential for nZEBs

ISEC 2018 – 4th OCT 2018

Thank you for your attention! Questions?

Co-funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European Union

Benjamin Köhler (Fraunhofer ISE)

[email protected]


mailto:[email protected]

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