copyright decision strategies international 2011 anticipating uncertainty and leading with vigilance...

Copyright Decision Strategies International 2011

Anticipating Uncertainty and Leading with Vigilance

New York HR People & StrategyDecember 7, 2011

John Austin, PhD Principal, Decision Strategies InternationalTel: (610) 234-0789 E-mail: [email protected]


“Instead of trying to optimize tomorrow the trends of yesterday, planning

should aim to exploit the new and different opportunities of tomorrow.”

-- Peter Drucker

Aim and Objective of Planning


Vigilant Leadership

Most managers excel at being focused (on the task at hand) Often, however, dangers lurk just outside this area of

present focus And likewise, rich opportunities may reside there – just at

the edges We will explore how to improve peripheral vision so as to

not get blindsided The challenge is to see threats and opportunities sooner

and take advantage


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(Sept. 2002)

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Aspen Edge by Coors launched(March 2004)

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AtkinsBook on NYT

Best-Seller Listfrom 1997-2002

Harvardstudy

endorsesdiet

South Beachdiet

published

For over 20 years, the low-carb diet gained increasing acceptance by the US population. But few companies captured the opportunity to market new low-carb products.

FDA recall of Phenfen

Fast Food Nation

becomes best seller

Super Size Me attacks McDonald’s

Successfully Managing the External Environment


The Future of HR in the US

Abundant

Availability of US TalentScarce

Flat

Dom

inate

Org

an

izat i

on

D

esig

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Hierarchy and Scale


Multiple Ways To Leverage Scenarios

Monitoring Key

UncertaintiesA living strategy and dynamic decision-making process that links weak signals to their potential impact on strategic priorities as one or more scenarios become more probable over time.

Platform for Innovation

Use scenario analysis to expand the scope beyond the current domain or market served by considering a wide range of forces that will influence the future, and thus present new opportunities.

Conduct a Stress Test

Stress test the organization or brand area strategic plan against the scenarios to minimize possible negative consequences and to seize opportunities.

Future Capabilities

Identify flexible commitments that secure big payoffs of the best case scenarios while minimizing losses in the worst case ones based on various factors needed to succeed in all or any of the scenarios.

Talent Strategies

Identify and highlight critical talent requirements to support organizational vision. Provide a context for aligning strategy to talent management efforts.

6


Key Talent Challenges over next 5 years

7


Overconfidence Quiz

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Question Low High1. Length of the Nile river (in miles or km)?

2. Year in which John Steinbeck won the Nobel Prize for literature?

3. Average gestation period (in days) of female Asian elephant?

4. Level of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on July 1, 1985?

5. Martin Luther King’s age when he was assassinated?

6. Air distance between London and Tokyo (in miles or km)?

7. Weight in tons of an empty Airbus plane (Model A340-600)?

8. Year of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart’s birth?

9. Number of books in the Old Testament?

10. Surface area (in square miles or km) of the Mediterranean Sea?


Overconfidence Quiz -- Answers

Question Answer1. Length of the Nile river (in miles or km)?

2. Year in which John Steinbeck won the Nobel Prize for literature?

3. Average gestation period (in days) of female Asian elephant?

4. Level of the Dow Jones Industrial Average on July 1, 1985?

5. Martin Luther King’s age when he was assassinated?

6. Air distance between London and Tokyo (in miles or km)?

7. Weight in tons of an empty Airbus plane (Model A340-600)?

8. Year of Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart’s birth?

9. Number of books in the Old Testament?

10. Surface area (in square miles or km) of the Mediterranean Sea?

4,187 miles or 6,699 km

1962

645 days

1,337

39 years old

5,959 miles or 9,534 km

240 tons

1756

39 books

970,000 sq. mi. or 2.51 million sq. km


Weather forecastsMedical diagnoses of pneumonia

Predicted Probability (confidence)

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The Cognitive Path of Least Resistance

We know the answer– The danger of being an expert

But I have evidence!– Where did you look?

Everyone agrees with me– Who are they?

Just one more dollar and everything will be all right– The tyranny of small steps– Our next step is determined by our last step

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Group Discussion

Identify at least 10 uncertainties which will drive the direction of your key talent challenge over the next 5 years

Try to find a variety of uncertainties by drawing from the PESTLE categories (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Legal/Regulatory, Environmental)

Once you have identified 10 uncertainties, try to narrow it down to the Top 3 uncertainties

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Dynamic Monitoring

Interpret RelevanceInterpret

Relevance

Map to StrategyMap to

Strategy

Adjust StrategyAdjust

StrategyManage Cycles

Manage Cycles

Track SignalsTrack

Signals

• Scan for weak signals (“unknown unknowns”) in the external environment

• Interpret Relevance• Map potential impacts

to strategy • Allow for strategy

adjustments in response to change

• Manage cycles for continuous monitoring


List the Force or KeyUncertainty

What are the Signals or Indicators?

What Internal Sources could be

used to track?

What External Sources could be

used to track?

What is the recommended

monitoring frequency?

Monitoring


Implications for your career

Given the uncertainties identified by all the groups, what key capabilities do you need to cultivate to remain relevant and able to contribute to strategic discussions over the next 5 years.

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What you can do to get ahead of the future (and your competition!)

Copyright Decision Strategies International 2011 17

Let’s keep the conversation going….

John [email protected]

(610)234-0789

or find me on LinkedIn

copyright decision strategies international 2011 anticipating uncertainty and leading with vigilance...

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