copyright 2009 © bae systems all rights reserved 1 reducing fossil fuel demand in theatre using...

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Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved Copyright 2009 © BAE SYSTEMS All rights reserved

Reducing fossil fuel demand in theatreUsing simple models to assess optionsNoel Corrigan

26 ISMOR

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Content

• Intro and background

• The SIT vision

• BAE Systems

• User Needs

• Available Technology

• Data gathering

• Fully Burdened Cost of Energy Model

• The study

• Findings

• Where next

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Technology Development• Investment in renewable energy technologies Transactions

$100 Billion estimated in 2006, (UN, New Energy Finance)

Energy Demand Increasing• Energy demand predicted to increase more than 50%

by 2030 and may triple by 2050 • Over 70% of this growth is from developing countries –

shifting economic power to the East• Peak Oil. No increase in supply.

Climate Change Impact • CO2 emissions forecast to increase by 55% by 2030 • Climate Change is causing changes in rainfall patterns,

sea levels are rising, glaciers are retreating, arctic sea-iceis thinning and extreme weather is increasing

Security of Supply Concerns• Can the nation get enough fuel for the forces’ needs?• Long-term tightening of supply among OPEC countries • EIA predicts that Fossil fuels running out: oil –

35 yrs? natural Gas - 60 yrs? & coal - 230yrs? Peak Oil?• Is the military supply chain secure from enemy attack?

Background to the Vision - Real Demands

Driving NewEnergy

Solutions

Governments imposing regulations andincentives to utilise renewable energy

Causing prices of traditionalenergy sources to rise

....and Shared Needs Across Sectors

Co

re N

eed

sC

ore

Nee

ds

Cost implications

There is commonality of needs in the military and civil sectors– however priorities will shift depending on objectives and specific situations

Regulatory & CSR Targets

Cost

Security of Supply

(Battlefield) EffectivenessSource: EIA Source: EIA

Military

Civil

Indi

cativ

e W

eigh

ting

Indi

cativ

e W

eigh

ting

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SIT Capability Vision

Reducing operational dependency on fossil fuels – establish the options for supply of future forces

Civilian market energy sources and technologies options

Alternative system design and usage

Alternative power management sources & approaches

Fuel usage & energy needs vs. likely supply issues

Mission management, training & infrastructure development

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Imperative for change

Priorities

Alignment with UK Defence Technology Plan

Validated modelling and analysis

Senior level UK MoD sponsorship obtained for modelling energy supply

Hypothesis that up to 15% of Defence Budget is energy

related

Clear energy needs across Defence

Save lives

Reduce logistical ‘tail’

Save money

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BAE Systems Approach

Targeted Analysis 1

Targeted Analysis 2

Targeted Analysis 3

Technology Watch

User Requirements

Data Collection

Modelling and Simulation

Funded by BAE Systems Funded by MoD

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MoD Fossil Fuel use

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Coherent Engagement and Support from all MoD Partners

Activity

Stakeholders

Cost CarbonSecurity of Supply Military Effectiveness

(e.g. FE@R and Wait time)

DE&SSUVIPT

DFG Defence Estates

DEC(ELS)

PJHQ

ScenarioOperational

Scenario

DoctrineOrganisation

ACDS Log Ops

LogisticsMDAL

Sources

Joint Overseas

PJHQE in C. DRLC

DE&SMPPS

IPT

DCDC

Measures

Training OperationsBuildings & Infrastructure

DE&SGSG

JF Log C

FLCs

Air Sea Land

DEC (GM)

DE&SFSCIPT

DE&SBISIIPT

SITDTIC

104 Logs Bde

Sustainable Procurement

PO

Sc Gateways

LE JSC

DCDC

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Available technologies

Technology

Reduce demand Increase efficientgeneration

Recycle energyNon-fossil generation

Sustainable buildings

HEDCentral power

stationHeat pumps

CHP

Pyrolysis Plant

Anaerobic digester

WindPhotovoltaics

Nuclear

Scavenging

Smart Grid management

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Fuel use on Op Herrick

Bastion

Diesel £1.00/L

Bastion

Diesel £1.00/L

FOB NowZadFOB NowZad

Fire Bse DwyerFire Bse Dwyer

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Supreme Fuel Source (Pakistan)Supreme Fuel Management Plant (Kandahar)

Gereshk

Lashkagar

Bastion

FOB Edinburgh

FOB Robinson

FOB Keenan

Fire Base Dwyer

FOB Inkerman

Kandahar Airfield

FOB Gibraltar

FOB Delhi

Afghan Scenario-specific modelling

Contractor effortContractor effort Military effortMilitary effort

Scenario Specific Models e.g. simulations



• Day by day simulation of the overland energy supply chain

• Modelling variations in the supply chain efficiency

• Understanding effort on contractor routes

• Measuring security of supply

• Day by day simulation of the overland energy supply chain

• Modelling variations in the supply chain efficiency

• Understanding effort on contractor routes

• Measuring security of supply

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Modelling the Fully Burdened Cost of Energy

• Validated by MOD Scrutineers - “validation method should be disseminated within BAE Systems as best practice”

• FBCE as a key sustainability metric - MOD Climate Change Strategy definition (analogous to use of FBCF in US)

A novel concept, a unique approach and toolset…A novel concept, a unique approach and toolset…

Training

Operations Estates

Activity Model(s)

£

£ ££

££

£

Cost Model

Fu

lly

Bu

rden

ed C

ost

of

En

erg

y M

od

el*

Output Data

• Fully Burdened Cost

• Logistical Burden

• Effectiveness

• Security of Supply

• CO2 & emissions

Input Data

Demand Data

By year

Sce

nari

o 1

Sce

nari

o 2

Sce

nari

o n

Cro

ss D

Lo

D C

ost

Dat

a

Energy Supply Chain

* UK and European Patent Pending

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The Study

Generate & categorise

options

Evaluate & downselect

options

Analyse options in

detail

Report

Activity 1 Activity 2 Activity 3 Activity 4

List of options

Set of 5 packaged technology options

Final report

Develop scenario specific tools

Populate FBCE toolset

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Option generation

Option Generation: Identified 100+ concepts/technologies

Option Categorisation: Scored options against a set of attributes

Evaluation & Down Selection: Reviewed/grouped options into five packages

All options to exploit smart power management and improvements to

expeditionary campaign infrastructure

Demand Reduction

Package 0

Efficient Generation

Package 1

Vehicle Improvements

Package 2

Large Scale Renewable Generation

Package 3

Small Scale Renewable Generation

Package 4

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Fully burdened cost savings

These savings are from the energy supply chain alone, keeping logistic method constant. The opportunities for optimising the supply chain would bring additional cost saving benefits

Fully burdened cost saving (Per Year)

0%

50%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Year

Sav

ing

ag

ain

st c

urr

ent

tota

l sp

end

VehicleImprovements

Near termdemandreduactionSmall Scalerenewables

Large scalerenewables

EfficientGeneration

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Small Scale Renewables Package Results

Fuel savingReduction to 60% of current diesel demand in-theatre at full

implementation (57% of baseline demand at main bases,17% at FOBs)

Reduced logistic effortTo deliver this reduced volume, you would save:

• 518 jingly tanker journeys/year by Supreme • 243 close support tanker journeys/year on CLPs

(assuming current storage capacity remains at FOBs but tankers are sent only on threshold)

Cost SavingFully Burdened Cost Saving ~ £10m per year (current fully burdened spend on Diesel in theatre = £60.2m)

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The Study requirement - satisfied

• Identified options for fuel savings in support of the Afghanistan Theatre.

• Conducted initial assessment of viability and benefits of options

• Detailed assessment of impact on the fully burdened cost of energy

• Recommendations made regarding technologies• that could be deployed forthwith• that could be Technology Demonstrators• that could be subject to further research; and• areas for further analysis.

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• Supporting the Capability Vision - Reduced Dependence on Fossil Fuels

• Working in partnership with a pan-MOD stakeholder community

• D Scrutiny validated approach and toolset with cross-domain application:

Land – Current operations

Air – RAF Base & aircraft fleet activities

Sea – Alternative marine fuels

• Supporting Sustainable Procurement

– FBCE is a key sustainability metric referred to in the MOD Climate Change Strategy

– Opportunity for FBCE to support Future Surface Combatant Assessment Phase

A novel concept, a unique approach and toolset…A novel concept, a unique approach and toolset…

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“BAE Systems work has kick started the Energy & Power Management initiative

and facilitated Paul Stein's vision”

David Wilkes, SIT Strategy

“Understanding the fully burdened cost of energy will be key to future acquisition

decision making”

Ian Brookes, Head of the Sustainable Procurement Team, DE&S

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Annex A – Supporting Material

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Major Assumptions

• The figures consider only the military operated facilities in theatre at the time data were collected. These were the Main Operating Bases (MOBs): Bastion, Gereshk, Lashkagar and Kandahar Airfield; and the Forward Operating Bases (FOBs): Fire Base Dwyer, Delhi, Edinburgh, Inkerman, Now Zad, Robinson, and Sangin. As the operation has developed the size, location and names of the bases have changed.

• We have assumed that given no intervention aimed at saving energy, the annual energy demands for the lifetime of the operation will remain at 2008 levels. We have assumed that this current situation persists through the life of the Operation; that is the commitment and military strategy remain unchanged, so that energy demands remain constant. Further, we have assumed that the cost of fuel remains constant. We have assumed that the operation will last until at least 2020.

• In the analysis of Packages we have assumed that the force protection levels are independent of the quantity of fuel being carried by the Combat Logistic Patrol and so constant. We have assumed that the total cost of the force protection for the CLP is allocated to the fully burdened fuel cost.

• We have assumed that military effectiveness is not compromised provided that the bases maintain fuel stockpiles at mandated levels (that is they always have sufficient to cover immediate requirements).

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