copyright © 2006, mountaintop technologies, inc. all rights reserved. 1 are shotguns and...
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1
Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Are shotguns and muzzleloaders
less risky than centerfire rifles?
05/22/06
WORKING DRAFT
Name???
2Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
The Current Task
Task AGrounding
Phase IStart Work
Task ERFI
Task BBase Map
Compilation
Task CAnalyze Incidents
Task DDevelop Method
Phase IReview
Phase IIGO/NO-GO
Phase IIProposal
GO
EndProject
NO-GO
Phase IReport
Phase IIStart Work
Phase IITasks
Phase I Phase II
Extent of Current Activity
3Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
The Current Task
• Current Phase I Focus– “Are shotguns and muzzleloaders less risky than centerfire rifles?” (Tasks A, B, C-)
• Future Phase I Focus– Develop a capability that provides a risk analysis for PA on the use of rifles versus shotguns and muzzleloading firearms– Make recommendations of alternative actions to improve hunting safety in populated area (Tasks C+, D, and E)
• Future Phase II– Provide information and recommendations to consider on whether “Special Regulations Areas” should be expanded in
Pennsylvania
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Timeline
• Will only proceed with Task D and E and Phase II with your permission
Today
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PGC Regulations
Arms & AmmunitionGeneral Statewide Seasons: 1) Manually operated centerfire rifles,handguns and shotguns with all lead bullet or ball, or a bullet designedto expand on impact; 2) muzzleloading long guns 44-caliberor larger; and 3) long, recurve, compound or crossbows withbroadheads of cutting-edge design. Buckshot is illegal, except inSoutheast Special Regulations Area.
Archery Seasons: Long, recurve and compound bows withbroadheads of cutting-edge design. Crossbows permitted for deerin WMUs 2B, 5C and 5D. Persons hunting deer in the archeryseasons may not possess a firearm of any type.
Flintlock Muzzleloader Season: Flintlock ignition, single-barrellong gun, 44-caliber or larger, using single projectile ammunition.Iron, open .V. or notch sights only. Fiber optic inserts permitted.Crossbows permitted, but users must have a muzzleloader stamp.
October Antlerless Muzzleloader Season: Any muzzleloader longgun with flintlock, percussion or in-line ignition, 44-caliber or larger.Scope sights permitted. Crossbows permitted, but users must havea muzzleloader stamp.
Special Regulations Areas: (All of Allegheny County in westernPennsylvania and all of Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomeryand Philadelphia counties in the southeast): Muzzleloading longguns 44-caliber or larger, bows and arrows, manual or autoloadingshotguns .410 or larger using slugs and 20-gauge or larger usingbuckshot. Buckshot may not be used in Allegheny County. Onlybows and arrows are permitted in Philadelphia County. Crossbowswith a draw weight of at least 125 pounds, but not more than 200pounds may be used during the regular firearms deer seasons, includingthe antlerless deer season Dec. 26-Jan. 14, in WMU 2B &and Dec. 12-23 & Dec. 26-Jan. 28 in WMUs 5C & 5D
centerfire rifles,handguns and shotguns with all lead bullet or ball
muzzleloading long guns 44-caliber
Any muzzleloader longgun with flintlock, percussion or in-line ignition, 44-caliber or larger
6Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Approach and Limitations
• Only deer-related incidents• Used representative high-end systems
– .30-06, 150 grain soft point projectile, muzzle velocity approximately 2910 fps
– Manual or autoloading shotgun, 12 gauge sabot .50 caliber 385 grain HP semi-spitzer, muzzle velocity approximately 1900 fps
– Muzzleloading long gun (Example CVA Kodiak .50 Caliber 209 Magnum Rifle) .50 caliber, 348 gr. CVA PowerBelt Bullet, 90 gr. Hodgdon Triple Seven FFFG, muzzle velocity approximately 1595 fps
7Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Incident Data, 1997 – 2005+
• Street, City• County Name• Township• Zip Code• Incident Date• Rural/Urban (Description)• Type of Property Damaged• Property (Description)• Firearm Type (Description)• Projectile• Population Density (Description)
Grounding in the Facts
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Limitations Incident Data
• Not exact location of the incident• Vehicle locations are of owner• Some missing data• Some fields are estimates• Sample size
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Incidents
• 464 Incidents• 98 Not Used (Non-deer hunting, etc)• 366 Incidents Used in County Level Analysis
– No rifle incidents in Special Regulations Areas– 19% in Special Regulations Areas– 79% in rural areas– 75% are residential structures– 65% in population density less that 200 people/sq mile
• 313 Address Matches (85%)
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Non-Address Match Incidents
Legend
CountiesNon-Address Matches
0
1.
2
2 - 4
4 - 6
Special Regulations Areas
Elk
York
Tioga
Erie
Potter
Centre
Berks
Butler
Bradford
Lycoming Pike
Bedford
Clinton
Warren
Clearfield
McKean
Blair
Crawford
Indiana
Somerset
Luzerne
Wayne
Fayette
Perry Bucks
Lancaster
Mercer
FranklinChester
Clarion
Schuylkill
Monroe
Greene
Venango
Allegheny
Adams
Washington
Westmoreland
Forest
Beaver
Sullivan
Union
Snyder
HuntingtonCambria
Jefferson
Mifflin
Fulton
Dauphin
Armstrong
Susquehanna
Juniata
Carbon
Lehigh
Columbia
Cumberland
WyomingCameron
Lebanon
Montgomery
Lawrence
Lackawanna
NorthumberlandNorthampton
Delaware
Montour
Philadelphia
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Incidents
Legend
Counties
Total Incidents (366 Incidents)
0 - 2
3 - 5
6 - 9
10 - 16
17 - 23
Incidents
Firearm Type (313 Incidents)
Muzzleloader
Pistol
Rifle
Shotgun
Unknown
Special Regulations Areas
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Legend
Deer Harvest
97-04
165 - 1972
1973 - 3758
3759 - 5669
5670 - 7984
7985 - 9969
Incidents
Firearm Type
Muzzleloader
Pistol
Rifle
Shotgun
Unknown
Special_Regulations_Areas_Dissolve
Deer Harvest
• Harvests are estimates• 2005 estimates not available
13Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Legend
CountiesCounties
IncidentsFirearm Type
Muzzleloader
Pistol
Rifle
Shotgun
Unknown
Special Regulations Areas
2nd Order Hot Spots
1st Order Hot Spots
Hotspot Analysis
Note: Hotspot analysis was performed using a program called CrimeStat I, developed for the National Institute of Justice
14Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
• 2nd Order Hotspots in: – Adams, York, and Cumberland Counties– Chester*, Montgomery*, Berks, Bucks*,
Lehigh, and Northampton Counties (* Special Regulations Area)
Hotspot Analysis
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Legend
Risk
Incidents/Deer Harvest
0.000000 - 0.439920
0.439921 - 1.098770
1.098771 - 2.064850
2.064851 - 4.125249
4.125250 - 8.577337
Incidents
Firearm Type
Muzzleloader
Pistol
Rifle
Shotgun
Unknown
Special Regulations Areas
Rate Map of Incidents vs. Deer Harvest
Reference: Smoothing & Excess Risk Algorithms Used in GeoDa: Anselin, L., Y. W. Kim and I. Syabri. Web-Based Analytical Tools for the Exploration of Spatial Data Journal of Geographical Systems (forthcoming). For more details on EB smoother, also see Bailey-Gatrell (1995) (pp. 303-308).
Compares the actual county incident rate to the predicted incident rate that would be observed in the county
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Legend
Risk
Incidents/Population
0.000000 - 0.481598
0.481599 - 1.123726
1.123727 - 1.868351
1.868352 - 3.734348
3.734349 - 8.056151
Incidents
Firearm Type
Muzzleloader
Pistol
Rifle
Shotgun
Unknown
Special Regulations Areas
Rate Map of Incidents vs. Population
Need to carefully consider how to define risk:– Incidents vs. Deer Harvest– Incidents vs. Population
17Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Site Visits
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York
Adams
Franklin
Cumberland
Legend
Counties
Visited
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Address Matching
• The address does not represent the actual location of the structure
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| 763 | | | COLEMAN | RD | | 17325
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| 431 | S | | YORK | RD | | 17019
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| 260 | W | | BARRENS VALLEY | RD | | 17019
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| 331 | | | FRANKLIN CHURCH | RD | | 17019
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| 323 | | | BERMUDIAN CREEK | RD | | 17316
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| 2 | | | TWO CHURCHES | RD | | 17316
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| 355 | | | ROCK VALLEY | RD | | 17304
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| 687 | | | QUAKER CHURCH | RD | | 17372
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| 101 | | | HUNTERSTOWN HAMPTON | RD | | 17325
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Preliminary Analysis of the Facts
• 366 incidents is minimal for an analysis • There are hot spots of incidents inside and outside Special
Regulations Areas • Need to define risk• An analysis of incidents within a smaller geographic unit is
desirable to reduce the spatial variation of factors across counties
• Improving data is desirable– Using and X-Y coordinate to locate incidents– Strike forensics– Estimated values (deer harvest)
29Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Ballistics as Represented in the 1998 Report
30
Physics: Ballistic Analysis on the Risk of Rifles versus Shotguns and Muzzleloaders
Aeroballistics Division, AETC
Picatinny Arsenal, NJ
31
Representative Ammunition
Rifle: 30-06 Springfield (7.62mmx63mm) soft point Mass = 150 grains, MV = 2910 fps
Shotgun: 12 gauge sabot .50 caliber HP semi-spitzer Mass = 385 grains, MV = 1900 fps
Muzzleloader: .50 caliber CVA Powerbelt Mass = 348 grains, MV = 1595 fps
32
Approach
Comparison of flight ballistics to examine two areas Initial Impact Distance Subsequent Ricochet Distance
33
Initial Conditions For the shotgun and muzzleloader ammunition,
drag curves for the complete Mach number flight regime were generated using Aerodynamic prediction codes
Shooter and target height was set at 3 feet Firing elevations were varied for a set of conditions
Firing Elevation simulated (degrees)
Firing Condition Feet Above a Standing Deer at a Range of 100
Yards
35 (max range) Errant shot 210 ft
10 High error in aiming 53 ft
5 Moderate error in aiming 26 ft
~0 Aiming at target 0 ft
34
Ricochet Distance Once initial trajectories are computed, ricochet
trajectories are simulated based on established ricochet databases from comparable military ammunitions
Trajectory Plots are provided with both initial and maximum ricochet distances
35
Ricochet Example
36
Trajectories for 35° Firing ElevationRifle vs Shotgun/Muzzleloader Analysis
35 Degree Firing Distance
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Distance (feet)
Alt
itu
de
(fee
t)
RF - .30-06 150 grains
SG - .50 cal 385 grains
ML - .50 Cal 348 grains
No ricochets after impact
37
Maximum Ranges
No Ricochet
Firing Elevation at 35 degrees
Ammunition Initial Impact Distance (ft)
Ricochet Distance (ft)
DifferenceDistance (ft)
% Less than Rifle
Rifle (.30-06 150 grains) 13926 13926 0 Initial Ricochet
Shotgun (.50 cal 385 grains) 10378 10378 0 25% 25%
Muzzleloader (.50 cal 348 grains) 9197 9197 0 34% 34%
38
Trajectories for 10° Firing ElevationRifle vs Shotgun/Muzzleloader Analysis
10 Degree Firing Elevation Distance
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000
Distance (feet)
Alt
itu
de
(fee
t)
RF - .30-06 150 grains
SG - .50 cal 385 grains
ML - .50 Cal 348 grains
39
10o Elevation with Ricochet
BandThickness is Ricochet
Firing Elevation at 10 degrees
Ammunition Initial Impact Distance (ft)
Ricochet Distance (ft)
DifferenceDistance (ft)
% Less than Rifle
Rifle (.30-06 150 grains) 10004 10706 702 Initial Ricochet
Shotgun (.50 cal 385 grains) 7163 8112 949 28% 24%
Muzzleloader (.50 cal 348 grains) 6247 7160 913 38% 33%
40
Trajectories for 5° Firing Elevation
Rifle vs Shotgun/Muzzleloader Analysis 5 Degree Firing Elevation Distance
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
Distance (feet)
Alt
itu
de
(fee
t)
RF - .30-06 150 grains
SG - .50 cal 385 grains
ML - .50 Cal 348 grains
41
5o Elevation with Ricochet
BandThickness is Ricochet
Firing Elevation at 5 degrees
Ammunition Initial Impact Distance (ft)
Ricochet Distance (ft)
DifferenceDistance (ft)
% Less than Rifle
Rifle (.30-06 150 grains) 7504 8743 1239 Initial Ricochet
Shotgun (.50 cal 385 grains) 5118 6865 1747 32% 21%
Muzzleloader (.50 cal 348 grains) 4367 6010 1643 42% 31%
42
Trajectories for 0° Firing ElevationRifle vs Shotgun/Muzzleloader Analysis
0 Degree Firing Elevation Distance
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 5500
Distance (feet)
Alt
itu
de
(fee
t)
RF - .30-06 150 grains
SG - .50 cal 385 grains
ML - .50 Cal 348 grains
43
0o Elevation with Ricochet
Band Thickness is the Ricochet
Firing Elevation at ~0 degrees
Ammunition Initial Impact Distance (ft)
Ricochet Distance (ft)
DifferenceDistance (ft)
% Less than Rifle
Rifle (.30-06 150 grains) 1408 4835 3427 Initial Ricochet
Shotgun (.50 cal 385 grains) 840 5205 4365 40% -8%
Muzzleloader (.50 cal 348 grains) 686 4498 3812 51% 7%
44
Findings Initial impact distance differences between rifle
and shotgun (muzzleloader) become greater with decreasing firing elevation
However, ricochet distance differences between rifle and shotgun (muzzleloader) become less with decreasing firing elevation
Ricochet distance is a more realistic gauge for comparing overall range safety
Moderate (5o) to high (10o) aiming error distance comparisons provide appropriate levels for qualifying risk
45
Findings (cont’d) Although shotguns and muzzleloaders still
produce shorter impact distances versus rifles, the differences are between 20 to 25 percent less than rifle
In terms of area, the differences are between 40 to 50 percent
46Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Finding
• “Are shotguns and muzzleloaders less risky than centerfire rifles?”– Yes, but…
• the margin of safety is much less than previously assumed
• reducing ricochets is essential when using shotguns as a safety management tool
1998 2006
Max Range Max Range10 Degreesw/ Ricochet
5 Degreesw/ Ricochet
0 Degreesw/ Ricochet
Rifle (.30-06) 24454 ac 13986 ac 8266 ac 5512 ac 847 ac
Shotgun (12 ga.) 1030 ac 7767 ac 4745 ac 3398 ac 1373 ac
Difference 23424 ac 6219 ac 3520 ac 2113 ac -527 ac
1998 2006
Max Range Max Range10 DegreesNo Ricochet
5 DegreesNo Ricochet
0 DegreesNo Ricochet
Rifle (.30-06) 24454 ac 13986 ac 7217 ac 4061 ac 1408 ac
Shotgun (12 ga.) 1030 ac 7767 ac 3700 ac 5118 ac 840 ac
Difference 23424 ac 6219 ac 3517 ac 2172 ac 92 ac
47Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Recommendations
• Based on this analysis, complete the Request for Information (RFI) to identify new technologies that will improve deer hunting safety
• Perform ballistics analysis with the results from the RFI
• Apply geographic analysis using the appropriate HR61 factors with new ballistics and technology to determine where to use safety management tool
• Make suggestions to improve incident data collection for the 2006 season
48Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Closing Thought
“if it is indeed true that the non-hunting public holds the unfounded perception that the 12 gauge rifled shotgun/rifle is safer than center fire rifles using expanding spitzer bullets, then it behooves the Commission to educate this non-shooting population.”
John C. HomsherStrausburg, PA September 10, 1997