Contributing to sustainable development in Vietnam

Downscaled climate projections workshop - Melbourne, 12 December 2012

Wendy Conway Lamb, AusAID

Context: Why are we doing this project?

Australian aid program goals

AusAID-CSIRO Alliance

Australia Vietnam joint aid

program strategy

High resolution downscaling project goals

Australian aid program goals

MDGs

Aid Program

Goal

Helping people to overcome poverty

MDG 7 – Ensure environmental sustainability

MDG 8 – Develop a global partnership for development

Aid Program Strategic

Goals

Saving lives

Promoting opportunities

for all

Sustainable economic

development

Effective governance

Humanitarian and disaster

relief

Development objective

no. 8

Reducing the negative impacts of climate change and other

environmental factors

Using science to deliver more effective aid

1. Build the evidence base for responding to complex challenges (including climate change)

2. Inform development decisions and planning, to improve livelihoods of poor people

3. Build Australia’s effectiveness as a global partner in research for development

AusAID-CSIRO AllianceResearch for Development (R4D)

Australia Vietnam joint aid program strategy 2010-2015

Human resource development

Economic integration (including infrastructure)

Environmental sustainability (including climate change, water & sanitation)

Human resource development

Economic integration (including infrastructure)

To achieve this goal, we will

Aid program’s approach to climate change in Vietnam

Australia supports the Government of Vietnam in the development and implementation of its climate change response that builds community resilience

and promotes low carbon growth

Build Community Resilienceby working at the community level (in

partnership with NGOs and local government) to strengthen communities’ ability to respond

and adapt to climate change, including climate-related disasters

Promote Low-Carbon Growthby working with government to identify low-

carbon approaches to development, including the identification of mitigation

options with strong development co-benefits (such as energy efficiency)

Enabling Vietnam’s Climate Change Responsethrough assistance to improve understanding of the impacts of climate change, identify

practical approaches to respond, and policy dialogue to help prioritise investment & institutional reform

Integrating Climate Change Across the Vietnam Program

supported by

Vietnam is vulnerable: Addressing climate change is key to ensuring Vietnam’s development gains are not undone and food security is guaranteed for millions of its people

Rationale for this project

Consultations (early 2011)

Identified need to better understand climate change effects at local level

Government of Vietnam policy

Requires all provinces to develop climate change action plans under the NTP-RCC

Challenge: how to plan and prioritise?

Significant uncertainties around climate change impacts: what / where / when

Opportunity costs: every $ / VND spent on adaptation could have been spent elsewhere

Experience

Govt of Vietnam requested assistance to build on the downscaling work they had started

CSIRO has undertaken similar downscaled projection work in Indonesia and Pacific

1. Improve Vietnam’s understanding of the impacts of climate change

2. Integrate past and current research for a more complete assessment of the potential effects of climate change

3. Provide information necessary for appropriate planning and investment to adapt to climate change

4. Develop innovative communications tools to ensure the data generated are widely available

Aims of the project

to…

?

How to get from…

• Information only of value if it leads to better understanding, decisions, actions…

Role of climate data in development

Steve Easterbrook, adapted from Russ Ackoff’s ‘From Data to Wisdom’ (1989)

1. Ownership by the stakeholders who need to understand and use the information

Representatives of Government of Vietnam actively involved (and here today)

Aligns with Government of Vietnam’s own priorities and institutional structures

Developed in response to an identified and agreed need

Key element of the program is capacity building, so that the approach will be sustainable

How to get from climate projections to better planning and investment?

2. Partnership between knowledge generators and those who will use the knowledge

Not working in siloes: scientists and decision-makers need to understand each other and work together

That is the premise of the AusAID-CSIRO R4D Alliance: each can add value.

Australia’s role in ‘Asian Century’: one-way relationship between donor and recipient not constructive

Australia can learn from Government of Vietnam: science institute embedded in the ministry

Draw on a range of partnerships with others, including within the Australian Government, with other donors (e.g. GIZ and the ADB), NGOs and research institutions.

3. Delivering and communicating results

Not just about telling story to media and securing funds.

Good communication:

facilitates ongoing learning and improvement

focuses the project on achieving results

helps ensure decisions are evidence-based

builds trust and support among stakeholders

allows others to build on and replicate the methodology: so the benefits are sustained

A major factor for success will be how the results are translated into guidance to help decision-makers identify and prioritise adaptive strategies in their development planning and budgeting

Welcome development of Communications Strategy

Accra Agenda for Action (AAA, 2008):

1. Ownership

2. Inclusive partnerships

3. Delivering results

This project upholds these principles:

1. Government of Vietnam requested this project and is strongly engaged in implementing it

2. Partnership between governments, and between scientists, decision-makers and beneficiaries

3. Focus on achieving, communicating and learning from results

These 3 themes reflect internationally agreed principles of aid effectiveness

What is the role of climate change knowledge in developing adaptive capacity?

Risk of linear thinking:

problem > development intervention > solution

Won’t work in tackling climate change:

• already committed to around 1.5 – 2 C⁰

• 2 C: between ‘dangerous’ and ‘manageable’⁰

• low probability of staying below 2 C⁰

• 3-4 C by 2060-2070 is very likely⁰

• at current rate > 4.5 C by 2100 (⁰ bleak)

!! 4 C requires transformative change !!⁰

Challenge of incorporating climate change knowledge in development planning

Adaptation responses: coping vs transformative change

Climate change

impacts

AdaptiveresponseAutonomous coping

(resistance)Resilience Transformative

change

Autonomouscoping in new state

business-as-usual development, or

incremental efforts to adapt to short-term changes based on past experience

i.e. “maladaptation”

= adaptation efforts that unintentionally increase vulnerability by:

• increasing greenhouse gas emissions

• disproportionately burdening the most vulnerable

• having high opportunity costs

• reducing incentives for autonomous adaptation

• generating path dependency (stranded assets)

(Barnett & O’Neill, 2010)

Without an understanding of future climate change scenarios, there is a risk of:

Downscaled climate projections help tell us:

what / when / where

(impacts)

We need to work together – scientists, beneficiaries, development practitioners, political decision-makers – to figure out:

how

(adaptation)

Ultimate goal, to avoid this…

And with the help of these…

And some of this…

… Achieve this:

Poverty reduction and sustainable development

Thank you