1. GEF Transboundary Waters Assessment Programme: Contributing to Indicator-Based Management of Transboundary Aquatic Systems Liana Talaue McManus

2. GEF International Waters (IW) Focal Area: Before 2007 3. TWAP Medium-Sized Project Proposal (2007) A Periodic Global Transboundary Waters Assessment Programme: 4. TWAP Medium-Sized Project (2009-10) 5. TWAP Medium-Sized Project (2009-10) Correspondence Groups (CG) for Crosscutting IssuesOpen OceanAquifersSOCIOECONOMICS CG Common input data Objective scaling Classification of vulnerable human populationsGovernance CG Assessing existence of governance architecture Assessing functionality of governance architecture among linked systemsData & IM CGLMEsLakesRivers Common data portal Data access policies Metadata standards Linking five WG databases Web apps 6. TWAP Full Sized Project (2013-15): Global Indicator-Based Assessment Long-term goal: Promote financing of indicator (results) based management and development of transboundary water systems Global environment objective: (1) Apply agreed assessment methods ; (2) Formalize partnerships & institutional arrangements for periodically conducting global assessments Project objective: (1) Conduct first global assessment to assist GEF and other donors to improve the setting of funding priorities; (2) Formalize partnerships with key institutions aimed at incorporating transboundary considerations into regular assessment programs, & resulting in periodic assessments of transboundary water systems 7. Brief history and project goals Comparative within a water systemSpatial coverage, 2010, 2030, 2050166 aquifers 43 groundwater systems in SIDS200 lakes/ reservoirs276 river basins66 LMEs, of which 55 are transboundaryGlobal Open OceanWater demand by economic sectorGDP Fisheries GDP TourismAccess to water Access to sanitationDeaths due to climate related natural disastersVulnerability to sea level riseBiophysical indicators Socioeconomic Indicators (e.g.) Governance architecture/ arrangement (e.g.) Data & Information ManagementFor Water QuantityFor Water DistributionFor Habitat Destruction(next slide)For FisheriesFor Biodiversity 8. Global Indicator-based Transboundary Waters Assessment Program Indicator-Based Assessment Data & Product Delivery System Water system indicator data downloadAquifers databaseLME & Open Ocean database Governance indicatorsWeb appSocioEconomic indicatorswww.geftwap.org LakesBiophysical indicatorsTWAP WebsitedatabaseWater system infosheetRivers databaseUser Feedback & Learning Refine Assessment Methods & Targets 9. Expected Results from TWAP Five independent assessments Consideration of linkages between the systems and cross-cutting elements (socioeconomic and governance) Institutional partnerships to sustain regular indicator (results)-based global assessments and monitoring of transboundary water systems 10. Contact Information Project Website: www.geftwap.org TWAP Project Coordination Unit: TWAP.PCU@unep.org Liana Talaue McManus, Kaisa Uusimaa, Joana Akrofi, Hartwig Kremer Cross-cutting component coordinators: Robin Mahon (Governance), Jaap van Woerden (Data & Information Management), Liana McManus (Socioeconomics) Mailing address: Division of Early Warning & Assessment (DEWA) United Nations Environment Programme P.O. Box 30552-00100 Nairobi, Kenya 11. UNESCO-IHP International Hydrological Programme of UNESCO Holger Treidel Oxfam East AfricaAquifers 12. Assessment of Transboundary Aquifers and SIDS lHydrogeological Aspects l l l ll lDelineation and description Static data and time-variable Classification, diagnostic analysis and zoning Data harmonisation and information managementEnvironmental issues Socio-economic aspectsGeological Cross Section-6 SENW (mASL)Section-1 9 237614008 26411300Section-2Hoachanas 3966646514 Sw J-9(K1288 la) tzivil Mar 658 105 A-2 DWM art2 3227110B1200Section-3Stamprietr) oddeGochas Auob R.J-5(1310328392995)(7 5-NJO528R P.E.1100l lInstitutional settings Legal frameworkAquifersTweeriver Auob R.asch Goa452KBSection-4P-29 AC555P-30 AC-1 GRA)er eerivAJ-8(R10002931 6 1275TwK RN P.E.RMKARA900Do R K B Do R A M N P.E.800700Kalahari Beds Kalkland Basalt Karoo Dolerite Rietmond Member Auob Member Mukorob Member Nossob Member Pre-Ecca GroupMA N P.E.M N P.E.050100150200250300 (Km) 13. Indicators 1.Time-independent parameters description/characterization of TBAs2.Time-dependant parameters 1.2. 3. 4. 5.6.Defining or constraining the value of aquifers and their potential functions Role and importance of groundwater for humans & environment Changes in groundwater state Drivers of change and pressures Enabling environment for TBA/SIDS resource 10 indicators for TWAP management level 1 assessment Implementation of groundwater resources 20 Indicators for level 1 management measuresin-depth assessmentAquifers 14. Data collection - QuestionnairesAquifers 15. Data base and Information Management System Geo-referenced data: Core Indicators Main parameters Additional parametersDocumentsImagesPredictionsOne aggregated value per TBA or SIDS AquifersWater GAPGeoreferenced Images 16. Project Outputs Information briefs per Transboundary Aquifer and SIDS (available through IMS) Data set of parameters and indicators of major world TBAs and SIDS Interactive Information Management SystemNew knowledge will be generated in the framework of TWAP TBAs Aquifers 17. Partners1. Core Group 2. Regional Coordinators and Expert Networks 3. Key providers of expertise and dataAquifers 18. ILEC International Lake Environment Committee Walter RastLake & Reservoir Basins 19. Transboundary Lake & Reservoir Basins International Lake Environment Committee (ILEC), in cooperation with Meadows Center for Water and Environment, Texas State Univ. (USA) and Research Center for Sustainability and Environment , Shiga Univ. (Japan); ILEC Scientific Committee (regional representation); 206 transboundary lakes/reservoirs: GEF-eligible lakes = 159 Non-GEF-eligible lakes = 47 20. Partners & Scientific Committee National Hydrologic Research Institute (Malaysia) Corazn de la Tierra (Mexico) Ritsumeikan University (Japan) Indian Association of Aquatic Biologists (India) Meadows Center for Water and the Environment (USA) East Africa Great Lakes Observatory (Kenya) University of Guanajuato (Mexico) International Environmental Management Services (USA) ILEC Scientific Committee (Regional/Global) 21. Global Distribution 206 Transboundary Lakes Asia/Pacific region : 51 Europe/Russia border: 71 Africa: 33 South/Central America: 31 North America (USA/Canada): 20 Cluster Lakes: Himalayan Mountain lakes; East African Rift Valley lakes; Western Africa coastal lakes; Mediterranean coastal lakes; Andean Mountain lakes. 22. Transboundary Lake Basins Little organized information on lake drainage basins; Global-scale satellite/remote sensing data (NASA; USGS) + GIS-based spatial analysis + DEM Transboundary Lake Basin Delineations 23. Linked Transboundary Water Systems 24. Indicators/Criteria Primary Forcing/Stress Criteria Water stress Land use/alteration Nutrient loading OthersConfigurational Criteria Lake area; Lenticity (lake area:basin area); Hydrological position & linkagesCharacterizational Criteria Population number, density & relative location; Erosion potential; Aridity index; Biodiversity hotspotsGovernance Criteria Policies; Institutions; Stakeholder participation; Information & communication; Finances 25. ILBM & ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS (AHP) AHP Preparatory Flowchart Data Preparation Process Assessment CriteriaBasic Data Configurational Features LakeBasin Descriptor Basin DescriptorBasin DescriptorLake/Riv er Combine dAHP Analysis ProcessPrimary (Stress)Prim. Crite.Secondary (Impairment ) CriteriaCombined Ecosystem ServicesRiver Group Final IndicatorsThreats CategoryCurre nt Major ResouSec. Crite.Three Multicriteria AssessmentRiver Group Indicator OutputGEF Decision Support ProcessAHP SecenarioScenario Driver PrimarySecondary DrivenThreat Catego ry DrivenScenarioDriver By Subcontinents By Climatic Zones By Lake Size By Thematic Features By Lake Clusters By TLB-NTLB collab. By Linkages etc.GEF Program Affiliations Management Scope and Challenges Scenio Coupling Budetary Scenarios OthersDecisionSupport ProcessTertiary (Improvemen t) CriteriaIllustrative display of assessment matrix for 26. Expert Group Meetings Inception Meeting (Japan; May 2013) Southeast Asia (Malaysia; July 2013) Europe/Mediterranean (Italy; September 2013) Mexico/Central America (Mexico; December 2013) South America (Brazil; December 2013) Southcentral Asia (India; January 2014) Africa (Kenya/West Africa; January 2014) Objectives Refine assessment process; quality of lake data/info; data gaps; other data sources; indicators/criteria (regional context); ground truth initial conclusions; questionnaire 27. Anticipated Outputs Final Assessment report of lakes, including cluster lakes, ranked within 3-5 major groupings; Transboundary lake atlas, identifying locations, extent & characteristics of transboundary lakes and their basins; Use of AHP for more detailed multicriteria analysis of transboundary lake basins; Concept of prioritization as applied to transboundary water systems; Compiled data bases used to develop all outputs (accessible electronic media 28. UNEP-DHI Centre for Water and Environment Peter Koefoed BjrnsenRiver Basins 29. Indicators Water QuantityWater QualityEcosystemsGoveranceSocioeconomics1. Environmental Water Stress4. Nutrient Pollution6. Biodiversity and Habitat Loss9. Governance Architecture12. Economic Dependence2. Human Water Stress5. Urban Water Pollution7. Ecosystem Degradation10. Institutional Resilience13. Societal Wellbeing8. Fish Threat11. Enabling Environment14. Vulnerability3. Agricultural Water StressProjected transboundary stress 2030 / 2050Water Systems InterlinkagesEnvironmental Water StressDelta Vulnerability IndexHuman Water StressLake Influence IndexNutrient Pollution Population Density Institutional ResilienceRiver Basins 30. PartnersRiver Basins 31. Agricultural water stressHuman water stressPreliminary indicator mapsRiver Basins 32. Basin Country UnitsRiver Basins 33. Agricultural Water StressRiver Basins 34. Water GovernanceRiver Basins 35. ProductsAssessment ReportGlobal MapsFactsheetsData Portal River Basins 36. Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO J. BarbiereLarge Marine Ecosystems 37. Large Marine EcosystemsLarge Marine Ecosystems 38. LMES ASSESSMENT MAIN FEATURES Conceptual framework (next slide) showing link between human and natural systems; focus on vulnerability of human populations to changes in ecosystem services Themes (productivity, fisheries, pollution, ecosystem health, socio-economics, governance) Comparative assessment across all 66 LMEs and Pacific Warm Pool clustering of LMEs according to their environmental state Level 2 assessment in Bay of Bengal LME through BoB LME project Global datasets (and where available, regional) are being used. Gridded data (30 x 30) - can be aggregated at any scale.Large Marine Ecosystems 39. LMES & OPEN OCEAN CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 40. LME INDICATORS ProductivityFisheriesPollution & Ecosystem healthSocio-economicsGovernanceChlorophyl aAnnual landingsNutrients (N, P, Si)% GDP fisheriesPrimary productivityCatch valueCoastal Eutrophication Potential% GDP international tourismGovernance architecture in transboundary LMEsMarine trophic index/FIB indexPOPs in plastic pelletsStock statusPlastic debris densityPopulation within 10 m coastal elevationCatch from bottom impacting gearChange in MPA coverageHuman Development IndexReefs at Risk IndexDeaths caused by climate related natural disastersSea surface temperatureFishing effort Mangrove extent Catch potential projections under global warmingCumulative human impacts 41. LMEs PARTNERSHIP Potential users/data providers THEMATIC Univ. Rhode IsUniv. DalCERMES/UWI CORE IOC/ UNESCO Executing Agency CoordinationNOAACMAP UNEP GESAMPUNEPWCMC IGBPUBC TUATLarge Marine EcosystemsInd. Experts 42. FRAMING QUESTIONS Key questions that the LMEs assessment will examine include: What are the current trends in LME status in each thematic area? Which LMEs are most heavily degraded and which ecosystem services are at most risk? What is the projected status to years 2030/2050 (selected indicators)? Where is human dependency greatest on LME ecosystem services? Where are humans most vulnerable to changes in LME condition? What is the status of the governance architecture in LMEs and implications for management? What are the main emerging issues?Large Marine Ecosystems 43. ASSESSMENT PRODUCTSLarge Marine Ecosystems 44. Examples: Fish stock statusSea Around Us ProjectLarge Marine Ecosystems 45. Cumulative human impacts on marine ecosystemsHalpern et al 2008Large Marine Ecosystems 46. Night light development index(L. McManus)Large Marine Ecosystems 47. See TWAP LMEs brochure for further detailsLarge Marine Ecosystems 48. Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCOS. Heileman ESAOpen Ocean 49. The Open Ocean: a transboundary space Earth is the ocean planet: 70 % surface covered by oceans, and about 50 % covered by ocean areas beyond national jurisdiction. International waters 73% of open ocean is high seas beyond the EEZs 52% of total surface of the EarthOpen Ocean 50. Assessment approach Global ocean local vulnerability Focus on themes where a global commons / global environmental issues related to the oceans exist Through indicators/mapping, identify local impact to ecosystem vulnerability or human vulnerability, with future projections where possible Assess the relevant thematic governance arrangements: pointing to where action is needed Scientific assessment of peer-reviewed literature Necessary for long-timescale, high-uncertainty, potentially high-impact environmental problemsOpen Ocean 51. Assessment themes/indicators Climate change, variability and impacts (e.g. impact of sea level rise on local coastal populations) Ecosystems, habitats and biodiversity (e.g. impact of ocean acidification on polar and tropical marine ecosystems) Fisheries, impact and sustainability (e.g. fish stock status) Pollution and contaminants (e.g. plastic density) Socio-economics: Human dependency and vulnerability Governance: architecture linking global with other scales, sciencepolicy interfaceOpen Ocean 52. An Example: Climate and ocean ecosystems corals Corals at risk from both local stressors (over-/destructive fishing, coastal development, watershed and marine-based pollution) and climate change and variability (temperature stress, ocean acidification, fast sea level rise) Local stressors: blue-low, yellow-medium, reds-high 53. Bleaching Threat to Corals in Future (2030, 2040, 2050)Open OceanHeat stress: frequency of level-2 stress for coral Degree Heating Month projections (CMIP5) 54. PartnershipOpen Ocean 55. ASSESSMENT PRODUCTSLarge Marine Ecosystems 56. Thank you