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Construction Starts Forecast

US construction starts declined by 11.1% year-on-year in Q3 2018 with declines in each of the three headline sectors of residential building, non-residential building and civil engineering.

Strong US economic momentum continued into Q3 2018, and GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 3.5%. The robust labor market, gradually firming wages and high levels of household wealth have boosted the household sector, and the corporate tax cut and strong energy activity have lifted business investment. Trade has been a modest boost to economic growth in 2018, but this is forecast to reverse next year. Overall, GDP is seen increasing 2.9% in 2018 and 2.5% in 2019.

Total US construction starts are expected to fall by 4.1% in 2018 before improving to 6% growth in 2019. In 2018, a rise in the construction of engineering projects will be more than offset by declines in the residential and non-residential building sectors. Growth is expected to return in all three sectors in 2019, with engineering projects continuing to be the main source of strength.

Canadian construction starts declined by 31.5% year-on-year in Q3 2018 with steep declines in all three headline sectors. However, strong growth in the same period a year earlier exacerbated this decline.

Total Canadian construction starts are forecast to rise by 1.7% this year, picking-up to 7% growth in 2019. Growth in 2018 is being driven by a 40.2% increase in starts of non-residential building projects, boosted by mega-projects in the manufacturing and transport terminal segments earlier this year. By contrast, residential construction is expected to shrink by 16.7% and engineering projects are expected to fall 8.6%.

ContentsSummary forecasts (table) and Overview ......................... 2Drivers of headline sectors (table)........................................3US type-of-structure forecasts (table) ...............................5US type-of-structure forecasts - INSIGHT (table) .........6US states, total construction starts (table) ...................... 7US four largest states: type-of-structure forecasts (table) ..................................8US type-of-structure forecasts (charts) ............................9Canada type-of-structure forecasts (table) ....................12Canada type-of-structure forecasts - INSIGHT (table) .....................................................................13Canadian provinces, total construction starts (table) .. 14Canada four largest provinces: type-of-structure forecasts (table) ................................ 14Canada type-of-structure forecasts (charts) ..................15Appendix A: Square footage forecasts (tables and charts) ...............................................................18

Highlights

Sources: ConstructConnect®/Oxford Economics. Forecast reflects actual starts through Q3 2018.

The U.S. jobless fi gure fell to 3.7% from 3.9% in August. 3.7% is the lowest level for the U.S. out-of-work rate this century. Canada’s unemployment rate in September dipped to 5.9% from 6.0% the month prior.

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Winter 2018-2019 Issue

For October 2018 Release

©2018 ConstructConnect®, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Sources: ConstructConnect®/Oxford Economics. 2

Construction Starts Forecast Winter 2018-2019 Issue

OverviewConstruction starts declining in Q3

Total US starts contracted by 11.1% year-on-year in Q3 2018, with annual declines across the residential, non-residential and civil engineering headline sectors. However, part of this weakness was due to base effects from groundbreaking on several mega proj-ects in the same period in 2017.

Turning to the headline sectors, the sharpest contraction (a 13.4% year-on-year decline) was in the residential construc-tion sector, which fell at its fastest rate since 2011. In particular, starts of multi-family units dipped 30.9% year-on-year, the third consecutive quarter of annual decline. Single-family construction starts also fell for the first time since 2011, declining by 4.4% year-on-year.

New construction of non-residential buildings fell by 10.6% year-on-year. How-ever, by subsector, the picture is somewhat mixed. Annual declines of over 25% were seen in the libraries & museums, prisons, warehouses, nursing homes & assisted living and manufacturing sub-sectors. Man-ufacturing construction, in particular, can be volatile due to the influence of large proj-ects. After strong annual growth last quarter (rising by 210%), manufacturing construc-tion fell by 55% in Q3 as construction of the Exxon Mobil plastics plant in Texas in 2017 dropped out of the annual calculation. By contrast, construction activity was more robust in a number of sub-sectors. Sports stadiums & convention centers construction doubled on an annual basis, as construction began on a convention center in Seattle. Construction of industrial labs also more than doubled over the same period, driven by a new project in Tennessee. Construc-tion starts of new courthouses in Kansas, Tennessee, Washington and South Carolina in Q3 2018 also translated into a 200% year-on-year rise. Finally, private office building was boosted by construction of a $3.2 bil-lion office block in New York City.

Civil engineering construction con-tracted by 7.7% in Q3 2018. However, this is primarily due to the strong base effects from large projects started in the same period in 2017, rather than any fun-damental underlying weakness. Indeed,

year-to-date civil engineering construction starts have risen by 6.3%. By sub-sector, airport construction dipped 67.5% year-on-year in Q3 2018 as construction of the new airport terminal at LaGuardia Airport fell out of the annual calculation. Simi-larly, construction of miscellaneous civil projects fell by 40.8% year-on-year due to construction of a pipeline in Pennsylvania falling out of the annual calculation, and construction of power infrastructure fell by 87.9% after a large project started in New York in the same period a year earlier. Construction activity in the roads, bridges and dams, canals & marine sub-sectors was more robust, rising by 29%, 17.1% and 47.2% year-on-year respectively.

Industry indicators on the construction sector suggest reasonable, but unspectac-

ular, growth. The Census Bureau’s put-in-place measure of construction spending grew by 2% on the quarter in Q2, but monthly growth was broadly flat between June and August (-0.1% growth). Construc-tion employment growth has been robust so far this year, with 214,000 jobs added in the year to September (compared to 149,000 in the same period in 2017). However, labor shortages, especially for skilled workers, are of growing concern. The JOLTS labor market survey shows job vacancy rates in the construction sector at their highest level since 2001 and weekly earnings were up 3.9% year-on-year in Q3. Although there is little evidence this has harmed construction so far, labor shortages could limit the extent to which construction spending can keep pace with demand.

Cont’d on page 3

Table 1: Summary forecasts(Annual percentage changes unless specified otherwise)

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022US

Macro variables

GDP 1.6 2.2 2.9 2.5 1.7 1.8 1.9Population growth 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7Unemployment rate (%) 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9Real disposable income 1.7 2.6 2.6 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9Central bank rate (%) 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.110-year government yield (%) 1.8 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.8Construction starts (y/y % change of $ volumes)Total starts 13.2 14.5 -4.1 6.0 4.5 4.8 3.9Residential 14.5 16.1 -7.1 5.8 6.3 6.7 5.5Non-res bldg 20.8 8.7 -7.2 4.5 2.4 2.6 2.1Civil engineering -3.9 25.1 8.9 9.1 5.1 4.8 3.9CanadaMacro variablesGDP 1.4 3.0 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.6Population growth 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9Unemployment rate (%) 7.0 6.3 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.3Real disposable income 1.3 3.8 2.3 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.7Central bank rate (%) 0.5 0.7 1.4 2.0 2.8 3.0 3.010-year government yield (%) 1.3 1.8 2.3 3.0 3.5 3.6 3.6Exchange rate C$ per US$ 1.33 1.30 1.29 1.28 1.27 1.26 1.25Construction starts (y/y % change of $ volumes)Total starts -22.8 16.8 1.7 7.0 7.5 3.4 4.1Residential 1.0 6.2 -16.7 -5.8 8.1 6.8 6.5Non-res bldg -32.5 58.6 40.2 -1.5 2.0 -0.7 -0.4Civil engineering -34.3 6.4 -8.6 29.4 12.1 4.3 6.0



Solid economic growth over next two years

In contrast to the current weakness in US construction starts, broader economic activity has been more upbeat. GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.2% in Q2, and economic momentum in Q3 has been encouraging, with GDP growing by 3.5% annualized. The labor market continues to be a bright spot – the economy is on track to add over 2 million jobs for the eighth consecutive year and the unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since 1969. A strong labor market, rising incomes and solid business activity are expected to underpin GDP growth of 2.9% in 2018. Although Q2 is likely the cyclical peak, the US economy is displaying solid momentum towards the end of 2018, supporting GDP growth of 2.5% in 2019.

The strong labor market, gradually firming wages and high levels of household wealth have boosted consumer confidence. Household spending is expected to rise by 2.6% in each of 2018 and 2019. Business investment has also strengthened this year, underpinned by the corporate tax cut and strong energy activity. Business investment is expected to rise by 7% in 2018, easing to 3.5% growth in 2019 as the boost from the fiscal stimulus starts to fade.

Net trade is expected to add about 0.1 percentage points to GDP growth in 2018 boosted by strong external demand at the start of 2018. However, more recent data has been less encouraging. Goods exports have declined for three consecutive months, as external demand has cooled, and recent tariff measures have started to bite. At the same time, strong domestic activity is pulling in more imports, so net trade is expected to be a drag to growth in 2019.

The Federal Reserve continues to tighten monetary policy, most recently raising rates by an additional 25 basis points (bp) in September to a target range of 2.00-2.25%. Inflation is currently hovering close to the 2% target, and recent communication sug-gests that the Fed will continue its gradual tightening path. We expect another 25 bp increase in December with a further three rises in 2019.

…but construction starts are less robust

After a weak start to the year, total US construction starts are expected to decline by 4.1% in 2018. However, this in part reflects strong base effects from several ground-breaking projects in 2017, weighing on 2018 growth prospects. Looking ahead, we expect construction starts to return to growth next year, rising by 6% in 2019, and achieving growth of 4-5% between 2020 and 2022. By headline sector, after a decline in 2018, resi-dential construction growth is expected to resume in 2019, buoyed by demand for new homebuilding. The civil engineering sector is expected to continue to experience strong growth over the forecast, particularly in 2018 and 2019, as a number of major oil sector projects come online. By contrast, non-res-idential starts, which have catch-up growth potential, are set to lag the headline figure.

The major driver of growth in the US construction sector over the next few years remains the residential segment. The build-up in demand for new homes following the long stagnation in homebuilding after the 2008 financial crisis is now being realised. New single-family housing starts dropped to an average of 500,000 units per year over the period 2008-12, compared with a long-run average from 1959 of over 1,000,000. With the recession now firmly over and the economy remaining robust, the pace of homebuilding is set to rise. This is most evident in the single-

family segment which bore the brunt of the housing declines post financial crisis. Fur-thermore, housing affordability has become an increasing issue for the new millennial generation looking to get into the housing market. Much of recent homebuilding has been focused on the upmarket and luxury end of the housing spectrum and therefore out of reach for low and middle earners.

However, there are a number of downside risks surrounding our residential construc-tion forecasts. There remain supply-side con-straints within the construction sector that are most pressing for the residential segment. The shortage of skilled construction labor is becoming ever more pressing for homebuilders, and with the tighter immigration stance of the Trump administration, there is limited scope to bring in labor from overseas. Furthermore, the current tit-for-tat trade tariffs are raising construction material prices. Canadian lumber restrictions have raised the price of lumber some 30% since the start of the year, and the uncertainty raised by steel tariffs has seen a jump in order-price volatility in that sector too.

Non-residential starts are set to fall by 7.2% this year with only modest growth expected in 2019 and 2020. Of particular note is the decline in retail sector starts. Physical retail space has been in decline since 2017 as consumers increasingly switch to online shopping. While we expect shop-ping starts to return to growth from 2020, by 2022, the level will remain nearly 50% below its 2016 peak. The opposite of this trend

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Cont’d on page 4

Table 2: Drivers of headline sectors Sector Short-term drivers Long-term drivers

Residential Unemployment rate; Household liabilities;

Mortgage interest rates; House prices;

Population trends

House prices; Incomes

Non-residential building Output trends in relevant sector; Population trends;

Capacity utilization; Borrowing costs;

Employment in relevant sector; Disposable income

Output trends in relevant sector; Employment in relevant sector

Civil engineering Federal/State/Provincial spending; Government borrowing costs;

Employment in government sector; Output trends in relevant sector

Federal/State/Provincial spending; Output trends in relevant sector



can be seen in the warehouse sector, where strong demand for online shopping will boost construction of warehouse storage and distribution centres. US manufacturing starts will maintain a steady pace as the effects of gradual reshoring of US industry continue. The US represents an attractive location for manufacturing firms to set up operations. The country has a huge internal market, advanced supply chain networks, cheap energy and competitive labor markets. In addition, the business-friendly tax reforms of the Trump administration will further act to induce business investment and expansion.

The civil engineering sector remains buoyed by strong growth in the miscellaneous civil cat-egory that includes oil and gas infrastructure construction. The recovery in the oil price coupled with the withdrawal of environmental regulations by the Trump administration has spurred new investment in the oil sector. The Keystone XL pipeline is the most famous of the new developments, but there are other pipe-lines proposed such as the Driftwood pipeline in Louisiana and a new LNG export terminal in Texas. The political climate remains condu-cive of large-scale infrastructure works, but as ever, questions remain around the source of funding. So far, the Trump administration has touted the use of public-private partnerships to drive funding, but it is unclear if this will com-pletely meet US infrastructure needs.

Modest growth in Canadian construction in 2018

Total Canadian construction starts declined by 31.5% year-on-year in Q3 2018, with sharp declines in all three sub-sectors. However, like in the US, strong growth in the same period a year earlier exacerbated this decline – the year-to-date decline was a milder 2%. Residential construction fell by 27.3% year-on-year with declines of more than 20% in both the single-family and multi-family segments. Non-residential construction starts fell by 22% year-on-year, and all sub-sectors except for offices, parking garages and manufacturing con-tracted. Some of the steepest declines were in the shopping & retail and miscellaneous retail sectors, which have been in terminal decline in recent years. Civil engineering construction contracted 40.6% from a year earlier with large declines in all sub-sectors

except for roads (which grew by 96.3%). The steepest decline was in all other civil, which fell by 85% after construction started on a large project in Alberta in Q3 2017.

Canadian economic growth has continued at a reasonable pace, expanding at an annual-ized rate of 2.9% in Q2. GDP is expected to rise by 2.1% for the year as a whole, moderating to 1.7% growth in 2019. The balance of growth is expected to rotate away from consumers and housing activity and towards firmer business investment. Stronger oil prices are likely to sup-port investment in the energy sector, which fell sharply during the oil price crash of 2014-16. At the same time, non-energy and government infrastructure investment are expected to gain momentum. The recently announced United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) lifts a cloud of uncertainty over the North Amer-ican trade relationship, while solid US economic growth and a still competitive currency should boost export demand. Household spending is expected to slow in the coming years, dragged down by rising interest rates, slower employ-ment growth and higher inflation. The Bank of Canada increased interest rates by a further 25bp in October and signalled that more interest rate rises were imminent now that much of the economic uncertainty has cleared. We expect a further three interest rate rises in 2019.

Total construction starts are forecast to rise by 1.7% this year, accelerating to 7% growth in 2019. Growth in 2018 will be driven by a 40.2% increase in starts of non-residential building projects, boosted by mega-projects in the man-ufacturing and transport terminal segments earlier in the year. Although a number of large projects are also expected to come on stream in 2019, the strong growth in 2018 means that we expect a slight decline in non-residential building in 2019. Manufacturing construc-tion is expected to increase by almost 150% in 2018, and groundbreaking on several new LNG plants in Alberta and British Columbia will drive further growth of 36% in 2019. In the longer term, the USMCA agreement should resolve some of the economic uncertainty sur-rounding Canadian manufacturing. Although new construction in the sector is expected to decline slightly from 2020, the level is expected to remain historically high. Construction of transportation terminals in 2018 is forecast to rise more than 1000%, largely driven by the start of a $6.3 billion new metro line in Mon-treal earlier in the year. Projects in Ontario and

British Columbia in 2019 will limit the extent of next year’s drop, but we forecast a 67% decline next year when this drops out of the annual calculation. The non-residential construc-tion outlook in 2018 is less positive in several sectors including hotels & motels, shopping & retail and religious buildings. Hotel con-struction, in particular, fell to its lowest level since 2009, but the outlook from 2019 is more upbeat, with construction expected to begin on several facilities, including a new ski resort in British Columbia.

In contrast, construction of engineering projects is expected to decline by 8.6% in 2018. Construction starts in the miscellaneous civil engineering sector, which includes oil and gas projects, fell by more than 80% in 2015-16. Groundbreaking on a few pipeline projects meant the sector returned to growth last year, but in 2017, it was still some 76% below its 2014 peak, and construction so far this year has also been extremely weak. Nonetheless, construc-tion is expected to begin in 2019 on a number of pipeline projects, including the Keystone XL pipeline. This, combined with the stronger oil price, should see sector construction more than triple in 2019. Bridge construction is expected to be strong in 2018, with ground-breaking on the Gordie Howe Bridge between Windsor and Detroit expected to start by the end of this year. New construction on roads has also been robust in 2018, with growth of 33.1% expected for the year.

Starts of residential buildings are forecast to shrink 16.7% in 2018, with notable weak-ness in the multi-family segment, which is expected to shrink by 22.6%. Unlike in the US, there is no major cyclical catch-up com-ponent driving new residential construction, since there was not a severe crash in home-building after the 2008 financial crisis. The government has repeatedly tightened mac-roprudential regulation in an effort to cool overheating housing markets in Vancouver and Toronto, including higher down-pay-ment requirements, tougher loan-to-value ratios and increases in mortgage insurance premiums. Such measures will weigh on homebuilding in the multi-family segment in particular. Single-family starts are expected to fall 11.7% in 2018 but their longer-term growth will be more robust than in the multi-family segment. Demographics are playing a role, as the family formation among millen-nials boosts demand for single-family houses.

Cont’d from page 3



Table 3: U.S. Type-of-Structure Forecasts($ Billions USD)

Actuals Forecasts2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Single-family 186.761 199.943 207.988 219.775 234.427 252.586 268.445

Multi-family 86.923 117.704 87.229 92.572 97.516 101.713 105.243

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 273.684 317.647 295.217 312.347 331.943 354.299 373.688 (Yr/yr % change) 14.5% 16.1% -7.1% 5.8% 6.3% 6.7% 5.5%Hotels/Motels 20.239 28.644 25.149 20.833 16.516 15.449 15.087Shopping/Retail 35.308 19.991 17.677 16.965 17.326 18.013 18.924Parking Garages 4.549 3.514 2.842 3.035 3.184 3.253 3.305Amusement 6.467 7.858 8.050 8.744 9.418 10.016 10.535Private Offices 26.052 28.943 26.553 29.495 30.588 30.533 28.861Govenmental Offices 13.102 10.572 10.427 11.458 11.887 12.121 12.409Laboratories (Schools & Industrial) 3.918 2.994 3.048 3.356 3.576 3.779 3.957Warehouses 14.785 21.537 19.438 21.252 22.731 24.027 25.154Sports Stadium/Convention Center 8.022 15.493 8.236 8.780 9.119 9.398 9.640Transportation Terminals 4.608 3.839 5.970 7.456 7.878 8.309 8.634TOTAL COMMERCIAL 137.050 143.385 127.391 131.375 132.223 134.899 136.507 (Yr/yr % change) 15.1% 4.6% -11.2% 3.1% 0.6% 2.0% 1.2%TOTAL INDUSTRIAL (manufacturing) 20.204 36.853 34.802 35.741 36.927 37.992 39.190 (Yr/yr % change) 34.3% 82.4% -5.6% 2.7% 3.3% 2.9% 3.2%Religious 1.738 2.248 2.020 2.073 2.120 2.133 2.143Hospitals/Clinics 21.431 16.628 15.583 16.874 18.044 19.204 20.097Nursing Homes/Assisted Living 9.731 11.906 10.144 10.944 11.459 11.877 12.256Libraries/Museums 3.213 3.585 2.910 3.087 3.207 3.315 3.399Courthouse 1.276 2.698 1.580 1.723 1.829 1.912 1.993Police/Fire 2.864 2.858 2.925 3.007 3.162 3.313 3.431Prisons 1.858 2.886 3.085 3.254 3.443 3.613 3.786Military 4.679 4.776 5.355 6.329 7.249 7.610 7.956Educational Facilities 70.112 69.454 69.813 73.601 75.190 76.721 78.142MED misc 7.820 10.902 10.469 11.134 11.544 11.872 12.151TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL 124.721 127.940 123.884 132.025 137.247 141.571 145.354 (Yr/yr % change) 22.7% 2.6% -3.2% 6.6% 4.0% 3.2% 2.7%Miscellaneous Non-Res Building 8.654 7.662 7.127 7.207 7.308 7.404 7.506TOTAL NON-RES BLDG 290.630 315.839 293.204 306.347 313.705 321.866 328.558 (Yr/yr % change) 20.8% 8.7% -7.2% 4.5% 2.4% 2.6% 2.1%Airport 6.659 12.541 8.006 11.042 11.491 11.993 12.496Roads 51.114 53.084 62.088 65.549 68.944 72.390 75.171Bridges 14.504 20.610 23.010 26.110 27.058 27.752 28.469Dams/Canal/Marine 3.740 5.089 6.185 6.288 6.648 7.003 7.262Water & Sewage Treatment 30.466 32.008 29.673 31.713 33.951 36.309 38.017Misc Civil (Power, etc.) 13.171 26.358 34.004 37.038 38.707 40.392 42.040TOTAL ENGINEERING 119.654 149.690 162.966 177.740 186.800 195.841 203.455 (Yr/yr % change) -3.9% 25.1% 8.9% 9.1% 5.1% 4.8% 3.9%TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL 410.283 465.530 456.171 484.087 500.505 517.707 532.013 (Yr/yr % change) 12.4% 13.5% -2.0% 6.1% 3.4% 3.4% 2.8%GRAND TOTAL 683.967 783.177 751.388 796.434 832.448 872.006 905.701 (Yr/yr % change) 13.2% 14.5% -4.1% 6.0% 4.5% 4.8% 3.9%

EXPLANATION: Table 3 conforms to the type-of-structure ordering adopted by many firms and organizations in the industry. Specifically, it breaks non-residential building into ICI work (i.e., industrial, commercial and institutional), since each has its own set of economic and demographic drivers.

Table 4 presents an alternative, perhaps more user-friendly and intuitive, type-of-structure ordering that matches how the data appears in ConstructConnect’s on-line product ‘Insight’.

Source of actuals: ConstructConnect “Insight” / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect / Table: ConstructConnect.


6©2018 ConstructConnect®. All Rights Reserved. Sources: ConstructConnect®/Oxford Economics.

Table 4: U.S. Type-of-Structure ForecastsArranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT ($ Billions USD)


SummaryCIVIL 119.654 149.690 162.966 177.740 186.800 195.841 203.455NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 290.630 315.839 293.204 306.347 313.705 321.866 328.558RESIDENTIAL 273.684 317.647 295.217 312.347 331.943 354.299 373.688GRAND TOTAL 683.967 783.177 751.388 796.434 832.448 872.006 905.701

VerticalsAirport 6.659 12.541 8.006 11.042 11.491 11.993 12.496All Other Civil 11.528 15.627 25.428 27.752 29.388 30.486 31.648Bridges 14.504 20.610 23.010 26.110 27.058 27.752 28.469Dams / Canals / Marine Work 3.740 5.089 6.185 6.288 6.648 7.003 7.262Power Infrastructure 1.644 10.731 8.576 9.286 9.320 9.906 10.392Roads 51.114 53.084 62.088 65.549 68.944 72.390 75.171Water and Sewage Treatment 30.466 32.008 29.673 31.713 33.951 36.309 38.017

CIVIL 119.654 149.690 162.966 177.740 186.800 195.841 203.455 (Yr/yr % change) -3.9% 25.1% 8.9% 9.1% 5.1% 4.8% 3.9%

Offices (private) 26.052 28.943 26.553 29.495 30.588 30.533 28.861Parking Garages 4.549 3.514 2.842 3.035 3.184 3.253 3.305Transportation Terminals 4.608 3.839 5.970 7.456 7.878 8.309 8.634

Commercial 35.208 36.296 35.366 39.986 41.650 42.094 40.801 (Yr/yr % change) 18.5% 3.1% -2.6% 13.1% 4.2% 1.1% -3.1%

Amusement 6.467 7.858 8.050 8.744 9.418 10.016 10.535Libraries / Museums 3.213 3.585 2.910 3.087 3.207 3.315 3.399Religious 1.738 2.248 2.020 2.073 2.120 2.133 2.143Sports Arenas / Convention Centers 8.022 15.493 8.236 8.780 9.119 9.398 9.640

Community 19.441 29.185 21.216 22.684 23.864 24.863 25.716 (Yr/yr % change) -27.4% 50.1% -27.3% 6.9% 5.2% 4.2% 3.4%

College / University 24.668 22.270 19.389 20.936 21.251 21.528 21.817Elementary / Pre School 20.326 18.885 19.480 20.742 21.449 22.088 22.634Jr / Sr High School 23.468 26.549 29.192 30.047 30.548 31.100 31.622Special / Vocational 1.650 1.750 1.752 1.875 1.943 2.005 2.069

Educational 70.112 69.454 69.813 73.601 75.190 76.721 78.142 (Yr/yr % change) 14.8% -0.9% 0.5% 5.4% 2.2% 2.0% 1.9%

Courthouses 1.276 2.698 1.580 1.723 1.829 1.912 1.993Fire and Police Stations 2.864 2.858 2.925 3.007 3.162 3.313 3.431

Government Offices 13.102 10.572 10.427 11.458 11.887 12.121 12.409

Prisons 1.858 2.886 3.085 3.254 3.443 3.613 3.786Government 19.099 19.014 18.017 19.442 20.321 20.960 21.620 (Yr/yr % change) 15.1% -0.4% -5.2% 7.9% 4.5% 3.1% 3.1%

Industrial Labs / Labs / School Labs 3.918 2.994 3.048 3.356 3.576 3.779 3.957Manufacturing 20.204 36.853 34.802 35.741 36.927 37.992 39.190Warehouses 14.785 21.537 19.438 21.252 22.731 24.027 25.154

Industrial 38.907 61.384 57.288 60.349 63.234 65.799 68.301 (Yr/yr % change) 19.3% 57.8% -6.7% 5.3% 4.8% 4.1% 3.8%

Hospitals / Clinics 21.431 16.628 15.583 16.874 18.044 19.204 20.097Medical Misc. 7.820 10.902 10.469 11.134 11.544 11.872 12.151Nursing Homes 9.731 11.906 10.144 10.944 11.459 11.877 12.256

Medical 38.981 39.436 36.196 38.951 41.046 42.953 44.504 (Yr/yr % change) 62.6% 1.2% -8.2% 7.6% 5.4% 4.6% 3.6%Military 4.679 4.776 5.355 6.329 7.249 7.610 7.956 (Yr/yr % change) -19.5% 2.1% 12.1% 18.2% 14.5% 5.0% 4.5%

Hotels 20.239 28.644 25.149 20.833 16.516 15.449 15.087Retail Misc. 8.654 7.662 7.127 7.207 7.308 7.404 7.506Shopping 35.308 19.991 17.677 16.965 17.326 18.013 18.924

Retail 64.202 56.296 49.953 45.005 41.150 40.866 41.518 (Yr/yr % change) 45.6% -12.3% -11.3% -9.9% -8.6% -0.7% 1.6%

NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 290.630 315.839 293.204 306.347 313.705 321.866 328.558 (Yr/yr % change) 20.8% 8.7% -7.2% 4.5% 2.4% 2.6% 2.1%

Multi-Family 86.923 117.704 87.229 92.572 97.516 101.713 105.243Single-Family 186.761 199.943 207.988 219.775 234.427 252.586 268.445

RESIDENTIAL 273.684 317.647 295.217 312.347 331.943 354.299 373.688 (Yr/yr % change) 14.5% 16.1% -7.1% 5.8% 6.3% 6.7% 5.5%GRAND TOTAL 683.967 783.177 751.388 796.434 832.448 872.006 905.701 (Yr/yr % change) 13.2% 14.5% -4.1% 6.0% 4.5% 4.8% 3.9%






Table 5: U.S. States, Total Construction Starts — ConstructConnectActuals

(Level in $ Millions USD) Forecasts (Year versus previous year % change)

States (alphabetical by 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Alaska - AK $2,172 0.4% 72.2% -51.7% 4.1% 3.9%Alabama - AL $9,645 4.9% 9.1% 7.4% 5.4% 3.3%Arkansas - AR $5,440 22.6% -3.3% 7.2% 5.7% 4.7%Arizona - AZ $16,340 10.7% -6.2% 5.1% 5.1% 4.5%California - CA* $78,573 -8.9% 8.5% 7.7% 4.9% 3.6%Colorado - CO $18,201 9.0% 0.6% 5.5% 5.1% 4.6%Connecticut - CT $7,060 -21.8% -3.8% 17.0% 3.3% 2.8%District Of Columbia - DC $3,966 17.3% 14.4% 3.7% 5.6% 1.3%Delaware - DE $2,943 -20.5% 10.5% 6.5% 4.8% 4.0%Florida - FL* $58,416 -5.7% 12.3% 4.1% 4.9% 4.5%Georgia - GA $24,546 -0.8% 9.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.0%Hawaii - HI $3,867 14.5% 12.1% 4.5% 2.9% 2.8%Iowa - IA $7,939 -9.6% -8.3% 5.9% 4.5% 2.6%Idaho - ID $4,216 16.5% -4.7% 2.8% 4.8% 4.1%Illinois - IL $23,255 -18.3% -0.5% 8.9% 6.3% 2.2%Indiana - IN $12,344 11.0% 16.2% 5.0% 3.9% 3.8%Kansas - KS $5,607 26.8% 9.6% 3.6% 4.2% 3.6%Kentucky - KY $7,391 4.5% 14.7% 6.1% 4.2% 3.8%Louisiana - LA $9,862 0.0% 17.6% -2.4% 4.6% 3.9%Massachusetts - MA $15,501 -12.1% 16.1% 4.3% 3.2% 2.6%Maryland - MD $11,508 -0.8% 5.8% 6.5% 3.7% 2.5%Maine - ME $2,590 7.3% 10.6% 6.8% 3.7% 2.0%Michigan - MI $20,656 -31.1% -4.1% 1.8% 6.6% 4.3%Minnesota - MN $14,635 0.5% 5.5% 4.8% 4.0% 3.6%Missouri - MO $12,882 -13.0% -3.3% 5.1% 4.0% 3.5%Mississippi - MS $4,903 -6.3% 12.7% 4.8% 5.3% 3.3%Montana - MT $1,611 22.5% 15.8% 3.7% 5.0% 4.3%North Carolina - NC $29,230 -3.3% 3.6% 6.3% 5.8% 5.0%North Dakota - ND $2,401 50.1% -33.9% 10.4% 5.5% 3.3%Nebraska - NE $4,498 -18.0% 38.3% 5.8% 5.1% 2.8%New Hampshire - NH $2,154 10.3% 5.6% 10.7% 4.0% 3.7%New Jersey - NJ $14,527 -14.5% 11.9% 8.7% 4.2% 3.6%New Mexico - NM $2,998 6.2% 2.9% 10.6% 4.5% 2.7%Nevada - NV $9,684 12.1% 6.9% -14.1% 4.3% 3.6%New York - NY* $50,151 -19.0% 14.7% -1.1% 3.6% 2.9%Ohio - OH $20,323 -1.4% 4.0% 5.2% 3.9% 3.3%Oklahoma - OK $9,434 -5.8% 7.9% 6.9% 5.4% 4.5%Oregon - OR $9,546 4.5% 16.2% 6.5% 4.9% 4.4%Pennsylvania - PA $28,886 -21.1% 18.6% 5.1% 3.8% 3.2%Rhode Island - RI $1,821 51.5% -32.1% 4.8% 3.5% 1.7%South Carolina - SC $15,330 -14.7% 7.5% 5.1% 5.1% 4.4%South Dakota - SD $3,042 -26.2% 44.5% -12.6% 5.5% 3.4%Tennessee - TN $19,074 -8.7% 2.8% 5.1% 5.1% 4.4%Texas - TX* $102,010 -10.4% 17.9% 4.7% 5.5% 4.8%Utah - UT $9,880 5.2% -9.1% 3.9% 5.5% 4.7%Virginia - VA $20,741 9.9% -2.5% 6.6% 3.9% 3.3%Vermont - VT $1,360 -29.6% 29.8% 8.2% 4.9% 3.3%Washington - WA $22,121 3.7% 8.1% 5.4% 4.8% 4.3%Wisconsin - WI $14,304 58.4% -55.8% 4.5% 3.6% 3.2%West Virginia - WV $2,075 269.1% -59.9% 7.0% 4.2% 2.9%Wyoming - WY $1,514 -4.3% 16.8% 7.4% 4.5% 3.7%United States $783,177 -4.1% 6.0% 4.5% 4.8% 3.9%

*One in three Americans lives in one of the four shaded states, New York, Florida, Texas or California. Sum of first column may not exactly equal total due to rounding.


2-letter code)



Table 6: U.S. Four Largest States: Type-of-Structure Forecasts($ Billions USD)


New York Residential 17.463 15.267 10.489 14.001 14.351 15.093 15.683

Non-res Building 17.942 21.955 19.197 20.907 20.529 20.988 21.373

Engineering/Civil 6.054 12.929 10.912 11.675 11.181 11.645 12.075Total 41.459 50.151 40.598 46.582 46.062 47.726 49.131

(Yr vs previous yr % Change) 1.1% 21.0% -19.0% 14.7% -1.1% 3.6% 2.9%Florida Residential 22.177 28.395 26.373 31.509 33.217 35.370 37.400 Non-res Building 17.726 20.326 18.836 19.838 19.759 20.236 20.745


(Yr vs previous yr % Change) 19.6% 24.1% -5.7% 12.3% 4.1% 4.9% 4.5%Texas Residential 38.328 42.242 42.006 48.909 53.016 57.283 61.065 Non-res Building 38.165 44.901 32.921 37.986 37.385 38.316 39.279


(Yr vs previous yr % Change) 4.7% 14.3% -10.4% 17.9% 4.7% 5.5% 4.8%California Residential 21.934 30.275 25.687 26.698 28.267 29.833 31.250

Non-res Building 27.414 32.857 27.399 32.134 34.581 35.810 36.666Engineering/Civil 10.326 15.440 18.516 18.843 20.838 22.135 23.050Total 59.674 78.573 71.602 77.675 83.686 87.778 90.965

(Yr vs previous yr % Change) 13.7% 31.7% -8.9% 8.5% 7.7% 4.9% 3.6%

Source of actuals: ConstructConnect “Insight” / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect. Table: ConstructConnect.

In August, the U.S. foreign trade defi cit with the world was $-639 billion USD, annualized. Canada managed a merchandise trade surplus for the fi rst time since December 2016. It was small, +$6 billion CAD, but positive nonetheless.

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Source of actuals: ConstructConnect “Insight” / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect. Chart: ConstructConnect.



Graph 1: U.S. Grand Total Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 3: U.S. Total Non-Residential Building Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 2: U.S. Total Residential Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Source of actuals: ConstructConnect "Insight" / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and ConstructConnect Chart: ConstructConnect

ConstructConnectU.S. Grand Total Construction Starts

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Graph 5: U.S. Shopping/Retail Construction Starts — ConstructConnect



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U.S. Private Office Building Construction StartsConstructConnect

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Graph 7: U.S. Warehouse Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 9: U.S. Hospital and Clinic Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 8: U.S. Industrial/Manufacturing Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 10: U.S. Total Educational Construction Starts — ConstructConnect



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Graph 11: U.S. Total Heavy Engineering/Civil Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 12: U.S. Roadwork Construction Starts — ConstructConnect


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Graph 13: U.S. Bridge Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 15: U.S. Four Largest States (by Population): Total Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 14: U.S. Water and Sewage Treatment Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 16: U.S. Four Largest States: Total Residential Construction Starts — ConstructConnect


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Graph 18: U.S. Four Largest States: Total Engineering/ Civil Construction Starts — ConstructConnect


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Table 7: Canada Type-of-Structure Forecasts($ Billions CAD)


Single-family 16.052 16.838 14.866 14.007 15.385 16.795 18.185

Multi-family 13.127 14.150 10.948 10.307 10.905 11.295 11.728

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 29.179 30.988 25.814 24.314 26.290 28.090 29.912 (Yr/yr % change) 1.0% 6.2% -16.7% -5.8% 8.1% 6.8% 6.5%Hotels/Motels 0.592 1.057 0.196 0.327 0.468 0.620 0.742Private Offices 0.659 1.454 2.395 2.300 2.126 1.907 1.707Govenmental Offices 1.450 1.365 1.308 1.359 1.397 1.432 1.475Shopping/Retail 1.073 1.016 0.512 0.553 0.569 0.595 0.626Retail Miscellaneous 0.450 0.190 0.154 0.152 0.156 0.161 0.167Parking Garages 0.108 0.153 0.198 0.190 0.202 0.210 0.219Amusement 1.819 2.281 1.650 1.979 2.095 2.149 2.211Warehouses 1.609 1.418 1.062 1.119 1.236 1.373 1.516TOTAL COMMERCIAL 7.761 8.934 7.475 7.979 8.248 8.447 8.662 (Yr/yr % change) -23.5% 15.1% -16.3% 6.7% 3.4% 2.4% 2.6%TOTAL INDUSTRIAL (manufacturing) 0.667 3.405 8.447 11.515 11.499 10.470 9.506 (Yr/yr % change) -34.3% 410.5% 148.1% 36.3% -0.1% -8.9% -9.2%Religious 0.131 0.131 0.062 0.075 0.076 0.078 0.080Hospitals/Clinics 1.058 4.136 3.053 3.510 3.883 4.238 4.541MED misc 0.536 0.519 0.241 0.289 0.302 0.312 0.319Transportation Terminals* 0.190 0.467 6.773 2.240 1.983 2.037 2.164Police/Fire 0.366 0.999 1.895 1.515 1.567 1.610 1.647Educational Facilities 3.569 4.061 3.816 4.159 4.346 4.478 4.637TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL 5.850 10.312 15.840 11.788 12.158 12.753 13.387 (Yr/yr % change) -41.4% 76.3% 53.6% -25.6% 3.1% 4.9% 5.0%TOTAL NON-RES BUILDING 14.278 22.651 31.762 31.282 31.905 31.670 31.555 (Yr/yr % change) -32.5% 58.6% 40.2% -1.5% 2.0% -0.7% -0.4%Bridges 1.869 1.600 6.024 2.815 2.573 2.583 2.591Dams/Canal/Marine 0.620 0.608 0.581 0.663 0.730 0.802 0.864Water & Sewage Treatment 2.651 7.305 4.441 5.058 5.381 5.723 6.072Roads 5.823 7.234 9.629 9.929 10.179 10.525 10.957Power Infrastructure 9.676 3.669 2.710 4.061 4.962 5.750 6.360All Other Civil (Oil & Gas etc.) 7.102 9.112 3.596 12.387 15.297 15.438 16.414TOTAL ENGINEERING 27.740 29.529 26.981 34.913 39.121 40.822 43.258 (Yr/yr % change) -34.3% 6.4% -8.6% 29.4% 12.1% 4.3% 6.0%TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL 42.019 52.180 58.744 66.195 71.026 72.492 74.813 (Yr/yr % change) -33.7% 24.2% 12.6% 12.7% 7.3% 2.1% 3.2%GRAND TOTAL 71.197 83.168 84.558 90.509 97.316 100.583 104.725 (Yr/yr % change) -22.8% 16.8% 1.7% 7.0% 7.5% 3.4% 4.1%

* With respect to Tables 3 and 7, ‘transportation terminals’ is the one type-of-structure that is categorized differently in Canada (institutional) than in the U.S. (commercial), for reasons having to do with government statistics.





13©2018 ConstructConnect®. All Rights Reserved. Sources: ConstructConnect®/Oxford Economics.

Table 8: Canada Type-of-Structure ForecastsArranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT ($ Billions CAD)


SummaryCIVIL 27.740 29.529 26.981 34.913 39.121 40.822 43.258NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 14.278 22.651 31.762 31.282 31.905 31.670 31.555RESIDENTIAL 29.179 30.988 25.814 24.314 26.290 28.090 29.912GRAND TOTAL 71.197 83.168 84.558 90.509 97.316 100.583 104.725

VerticalsAll Other Civil 7.102 9.112 3.596 12.387 15.297 15.438 16.414Bridges 1.869 1.600 6.024 2.815 2.573 2.583 2.591Dams / Canals / Marine Work 0.620 0.608 0.581 0.663 0.730 0.802 0.864Power Infrastructure 9.676 3.669 2.710 4.061 4.962 5.750 6.360Roads 5.823 7.234 9.629 9.929 10.179 10.525 10.957Water and Sewage Treatment 2.651 7.305 4.441 5.058 5.381 5.723 6.072

CIVIL 27.740 29.529 26.981 34.913 39.121 40.822 43.258 (Yr/yr % change) -34.3% 6.4% -8.6% 29.4% 12.1% 4.3% 6.0%

Offices (private) 0.659 1.454 2.395 2.300 2.126 1.907 1.707Parking Garages 0.108 0.153 0.198 0.190 0.202 0.210 0.219Transportation Terminals 0.190 0.467 6.773 2.240 1.983 2.037 2.164

Commercial 0.957 2.074 9.367 4.730 4.311 4.154 4.090 (Yr/yr % change) -74.3% 116.8% 351.7% -49.5% -8.9% -3.6% -1.5%

Amusement 1.819 2.281 1.650 1.979 2.095 2.149 2.211Religious 0.131 0.131 0.062 0.075 0.076 0.078 0.080

Community 1.950 2.412 1.712 2.054 2.172 2.227 2.291 (Yr/yr % change) -23.6% 23.7% -29.1% 20.0% 5.7% 2.5% 2.9%Educational 3.569 4.061 3.816 4.159 4.346 4.478 4.637 (Yr/yr % change) -31.0% 13.8% -6.0% 9.0% 4.5% 3.0% 3.5%

Fire and Police Stations 0.366 0.999 1.895 1.515 1.567 1.610 1.647Government Offices 1.450 1.365 1.308 1.359 1.397 1.432 1.475

Government 1.817 2.364 3.202 2.875 2.963 3.042 3.121 (Yr/yr % change) 25.5% 30.1% 35.5% -10.2% 3.1% 2.7% 2.6%

Manufacturing 0.667 3.405 8.447 11.515 11.499 10.470 9.506Warehouses 1.609 1.418 1.062 1.119 1.236 1.373 1.516

Industrial 2.276 4.823 9.509 12.633 12.735 11.843 11.022 (Yr/yr % change) 14.3% 111.9% 97.2% 32.8% 0.8% -7.0% -6.9%

Hospitals / Clinics 1.058 4.136 3.053 3.510 3.883 4.238 4.541Medical Misc. 0.536 0.519 0.241 0.289 0.302 0.312 0.319

Medical 1.594 4.655 3.294 3.799 4.185 4.550 4.860 (Yr/yr % change) -50.6% 192.0% -29.2% 15.3% 10.2% 8.7% 6.8%


Retail 2.116 2.263 0.862 1.032 1.193 1.376 1.534 (Yr/yr % change) -30.5% 7.0% -61.9% 19.7% 15.6% 15.4% 11.5%

NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 14.278 22.651 31.762 31.282 31.905 31.670 31.555 (Yr/yr % change) -32.5% 58.6% 40.2% -1.5% 2.0% -0.7% -0.4%


RESIDENTIAL 29.179 30.988 25.814 24.314 26.290 28.090 29.912 (Yr/yr % change) 1.0% 6.2% -16.7% -5.8% 8.1% 6.8% 6.5%TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL 42.019 52.180 58.744 66.195 71.026 72.492 74.813 (Yr/yr % change) -33.7% 24.2% 12.6% 12.7% 7.3% 2.1% 3.2%GRAND TOTAL 71.197 83.168 84.558 90.509 97.316 100.583 104.725 (Yr/yr % change) -22.8% 16.8% 1.7% 7.0% 7.5% 3.4% 4.1%






Table 10: Canada Four Largest Provinces: Type-of-Structure Forecasts($ Billions CAD)


Quebec Residential 4.336 4.573 3.304 3.325 3.566 3.722 3.944

Non-res Building 2.339 4.920 11.053 5.109 5.306 5.118 5.110


(Yr vs previous yr % Change) -33.7% 47.8% 34.7% -31.9% 6.4% 0.4% 3.7%Ontario Residential 12.611 13.749 11.507 8.325 8.379 8.823 9.348 Non-res Building 4.981 6.575 8.410 8.310 9.080 8.770 8.678


(Yr vs previous yr % Change) -5.9% -7.6% 18.4% -14.3% 5.2% 0.5% 3.5%Alberta Residential 3.772 4.690 3.538 4.820 5.693 6.306 6.826 Non-res Building 3.083 5.488 7.309 7.160 7.470 7.551 7.613


(Yr vs previous yr % Change) -31.7% 84.6% -32.7% 61.7% 9.0% 5.3% 4.1%British Columbia Residential 6.039 5.865 5.284 5.549 6.245 6.635 6.993

Non-res Building 2.004 2.516 2.127 7.018 6.364 6.289 6.145Engineering/Civil 2.458 2.953 4.027 5.405 7.055 7.837 8.659Total 10.501 11.334 11.438 17.972 19.663 20.760 21.798

(Yr vs previous yr % Change) -54.6% 7.9% 0.9% 57.1% 9.4% 5.6% 5.0%


Table 9: Canadian Provinces, Total Construction Starts — ConstructConnectActuals

(Level in $ Millions CAD) Forecasts (Year versus previous year % change)

Regions/Provinces (East to West) 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Atlantic region $5,969 -19.2% 11.0% 4.9% 10.2% 5.0%Quebec $13,924 34.7% -31.9% 6.4% 0.4% 3.7%Ontario $25,614 18.4% -14.3% 5.2% 0.5% 3.5%Manitoba $2,529 -4.4% 8.5% 8.6% 0.2% 3.8%Saskatchewan $2,140 4.4% -0.2% 14.4% 1.2% 4.2%Alberta $21,658 -32.7% 61.7% 9.0% 5.3% 4.1%British Columbia $11,334 0.9% 57.1% 9.4% 5.6% 5.0%Canada $83,168 1.7% 7.0% 7.5% 3.4% 4.1%








Graph 19: Canadian Grand Total Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 21: Canadian Non-Residential Building Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 20: Canadian Residential Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 22: Canadian Shopping/Retail Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Source of actuals: CMD "Insight" / Forecasts: Oxford Economics and CMD / Chart: CMD.

ConstructConnectCanada Grand Total Construction Starts

Name of this file: "(2) Forecast Check (OE) Canada Starts $s (Oct 18) - FINAL.xlsx

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Graph 23: Canadian Private Offices Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 24: Canadian Warehouse Construction Starts — ConstructConnect



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Graph 25: Canadian Industrial/Manufacturing Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 27: Canadian Education Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 26: Canadian Hospital/Clinic Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 28: Canadian Engineering Construction Starts — ConstructConnect



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Graph 30: Canadian Water and Sewage Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 29: Canadian Roadwork Construction Starts — ConstructConnect


Name of this file: "(2) Forecast Check (OE) Canada Starts $s (Apr 18) - FINAL.xlsx

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Graph 31: Canadian Power Infrastructure Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 33: Canada Four Largest Provinces (by Population): Total Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 32: Canadian Oil and Gas Plants, Pipelines Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 34: Canada Four Largest Provinces: Total Residential Construction Starts — ConstructConnect


ConstructConnect


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Canada Four Largest Provinces (by Population): Total Construction Starts - CMD


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Canada Four Largest Provinces: Total Residential Construction Starts - CMD


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Graph 35: Canada Four Largest Provinces: Total Non-residential Building Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 36: Canada Four Largest Provinces: Total Engineering/ Civil Construction Starts — ConstructConnect


Canada Four Largest Provinces: Total Non-residential Building Starts - CMD


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Construction Starts Forecast Winter 2018-2019 IssueAppendix A: Square Footage Forecasts

Table 11: U.S. Type-of-Structure Forecasts(Square Feet Millions)


Single-family 1,544.2 1,653.2 1,700.8 1,801.3 1,934.2 2,087.4 2,219.3

Multi-family 508.3 650.3 473.9 513.9 554.8 582.2 603.3

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 2,052.5 2,303.5 2,174.8 2,315.1 2,489.0 2,669.6 2,822.6 (Yr/yr % change) 10.1% 12.2% -5.6% 6.5% 7.5% 7.3% 5.7%Hotels/Motels 113.2 158.6 95.3 81.8 68.6 65.2 63.9Shopping/Retail 188.9 89.6 68.6 67.6 69.6 72.5 76.2Parking Garages 27.7 30.8 26.8 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.3Amusement 21.2 24.2 25.5 25.7 28.6 30.7 32.4Private Offices 112.1 107.0 79.7 92.8 98.4 98.8 93.5Govenmental Offices 19.5 15.4 13.7 14.7 15.8 16.3 16.7Laboratories (Schools & Industrial) 6.3 6.5 4.3 4.7 5.3 5.6 5.9Warehouses 155.7 213.8 171.0 192.6 212.9 226.9 238.0Sports Stadium/Convention Center 27.5 28.5 13.6 13.3 14.5 15.1 15.5Transportation Terminals 7.6 7.3 6.5 9.0 10.2 11.4 12.5TOTAL COMMERCIAL 679.6 681.8 504.9 530.3 552.5 571.3 583.9 (Yr/yr % change) 8.6% 0.3% -25.9% 5.0% 4.2% 3.4% 2.2%TOTAL INDUSTRIAL (manufacturing) 104.2 92.3 87.4 85.7 92.3 95.9 99.2 (Yr/yr % change) 19.5% -11.4% -5.3% -2.0% 7.7% 3.9% 3.4%Religious 5.9 7.6 5.3 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.2Hospitals/Clinics 37.8 26.5 21.5 27.5 33.4 39.4 45.4Nursing Homes/Assisted Living 46.2 54.3 44.2 48.9 50.8 52.6 54.2Libraries/Museums 4.2 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4Courthouse 1.9 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5Police/Fire 7.1 8.1 7.2 7.4 7.7 8.1 8.4Prisons 2.8 4.9 3.8 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.2Military 8.9 12.8 9.7 11.0 12.0 12.9 13.5Educational Facilities 170.4 161.6 149.8 161.1 166.8 170.9 174.3MED misc 19.1 24.5 20.7 21.9 23.6 24.6 25.2TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL 304.2 306.6 268.4 294.1 311.7 326.2 339.2 (Yr/yr % change) 25.4% 0.8% -12.5% 9.6% 6.0% 4.6% 4.0%Miscellaneous Non-Res Building 32.7 28.4 23.2 23.8 24.7 25.2 25.5TOTAL NON-RES BLDG 1,120.7 1,109.0 883.9 934.0 981.2 1,018.6 1,047.8 (Yr/yr % change) 15.0% -1.0% -20.3% 5.7% 5.1% 3.8% 2.9%RESIDENTIAL + NON-RES BLDG 3,173.2 3,412.5 3,058.7 3,249.1 3,470.3 3,688.2 3,870.5 (Yr/yr % change) 11.7% 7.5% -10.4% 6.2% 6.8% 6.3% 4.9%



The square footage forecasts are largely determined by dividing the dollar value forecasts by an average dollar-per-square-foot value. The underlying dollar-per-square-foot calculation is based on the most relevant of current data. While the projected dollar values are generated through econometric modeling driven by key economic and demographic variables, both the dollar value and square footage forecasts also allow for discretionary overrides when warranted by extraordinary circumstances, such as unique mega project start-ups.




Table 12: U.S. Type-of-Structure ForecastsArranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT (Square Feet Millions)


SummaryNON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 1,120.7 1,109.0 883.9 934.0 981.2 1,018.6 1,047.8RESIDENTIAL 2,052.5 2,303.5 2,174.8 2,315.1 2,489.0 2,669.6 2,822.6RESIDENTIAL + NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 3,173.2 3,412.5 3,058.7 3,249.1 3,470.3 3,688.2 3,870.5

VerticalsOffices (private) 112.1 107.0 79.7 92.8 98.4 98.8 93.5Parking Garages 27.7 30.8 26.8 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.3Transportation Terminals 7.6 7.3 6.5 9.0 10.2 11.4 12.5

Commercial 147.3 145.1 112.9 130.0 137.2 139.1 135.4 (Yr/yr % change) 14.0% -1.5% -22.2% 15.1% 5.5% 1.4% -2.7%

Amusement 21.2 24.2 25.5 25.7 28.6 30.7 32.4Libraries / Museums 4.2 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4Religious 5.9 7.6 5.3 5.7 6.0 6.1 6.2Sports Arenas / Convention Centers 27.5 28.5 13.6 13.3 14.5 15.1 15.5

Community 58.7 64.2 48.5 48.8 53.3 56.2 58.4 (Yr/yr % change) -21.9% 9.3% -24.5% 0.7% 9.2% 5.4% 4.0%

College / University 54.3 46.2 35.8 38.6 41.5 42.6 43.3Elementary / Pre School 52.5 47.6 43.8 48.0 50.5 52.2 53.6Jr / Sr High School 57.4 61.9 66.4 70.4 70.4 71.4 72.5Special / Vocational 6.2 5.9 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.8

Educational 170.4 161.6 149.8 161.1 166.8 170.9 174.3 (Yr/yr % change) 18.3% -5.2% -7.3% 7.6% 3.6% 2.4% 2.0%

Courthouses 1.9 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5Fire and Police Stations 7.1 8.1 7.2 7.4 7.7 8.1 8.4


Prisons 2.8 4.9 3.8 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.2Government 31.4 30.9 26.8 28.7 30.6 31.7 32.8 (Yr/yr % change) 31.4% -1.4% -13.4% 7.2% 6.5% 3.8% 3.3%

Industrial Labs / Labs / School Labs 6.3 6.5 4.3 4.7 5.3 5.6 5.9Manufacturing 104.2 92.3 87.4 85.7 92.3 95.9 99.2Warehouses 155.7 213.8 171.0 192.6 212.9 226.9 238.0

Industrial 266.2 312.6 262.7 282.9 310.4 328.4 343.0 (Yr/yr % change) -10.2% 17.4% -16.0% 7.7% 9.7% 5.8% 4.5%

Hospitals / Clinics 37.8 26.5 21.5 27.5 33.4 39.4 45.4Medical Misc. 19.1 24.5 20.7 21.9 23.6 24.6 25.2Nursing Homes 46.2 54.3 44.2 48.9 50.8 52.6 54.2

Medical 103.1 105.3 86.5 98.3 107.9 116.5 124.8 (Yr/yr % change) 38.8% 2.2% -17.9% 13.7% 9.7% 8.0% 7.1%Military 8.9 12.8 9.7 11.0 12.0 12.9 13.5 (Yr/yr % change) 148.4% 43.4% -23.9% 12.8% 9.9% 6.8% 5.0%


Retail 334.8 276.6 187.1 173.2 163.0 162.9 165.7 (Yr/yr % change) 46.7% -17.4% -32.4% -7.4% -5.9% -0.1% 1.7%

NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 1,120.7 1,109.0 883.9 934.0 981.2 1,018.6 1,047.8 (Yr/yr % change) 15.0% -1.0% -20.3% 5.7% 5.1% 3.8% 2.9%

Multi-Family 508.3 650.3 473.9 513.9 554.8 582.2 603.3Single-Family 1,544.2 1,653.2 1,700.8 1,801.3 1,934.2 2,087.4 2,219.3

RESIDENTIAL 2,052.5 2,303.5 2,174.8 2,315.1 2,489.0 2,669.6 2,822.6 (Yr/yr % change) 10.1% 12.2% -5.6% 6.5% 7.5% 7.3% 5.7%RESIDENTIAL + NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 3,173.2 3,412.5 3,058.7 3,249.1 3,470.3 3,688.2 3,870.5 (Yr/yr % change) 11.7% 7.5% -10.4% 6.2% 6.8% 6.3% 4.9%






Table 13: Canada Type-of-Structure Forecasts(Square Feet Millions)


Single-family 138.1 144.9 126.3 119.5 132.1 144.4 156.4

Multi-family 74.1 76.8 55.3 52.4 57.1 59.5 61.9

TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 212.3 221.6 181.7 171.9 189.2 204.0 218.4 (Yr/yr % change) 0.1% 4.4% -18.0% -5.4% 10.0% 7.8% 7.1%Hotels/Motels 2.4 4.2 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.7Private Offices 3.1 5.9 11.6 10.5 9.6 8.5 7.6Govenmental Offices 3.0 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6Shopping/Retail 10.8 7.2 5.4 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.6Retail Miscellaneous 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0Parking Garages 0.2 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4Amusement 5.5 5.5 3.0 4.3 4.7 4.8 5.0Warehouses 10.1 11.3 7.9 8.3 10.1 11.5 12.8TOTAL COMMERCIAL 36.6 38.3 31.3 32.0 34.0 35.4 36.8 (Yr/yr % change) -20.4% 4.6% -18.1% 2.1% 6.2% 4.2% 4.0%TOTAL INDUSTRIAL (manufacturing) 2.7 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 (Yr/yr % change) -49.0% 74.2% -3.7% 0.4% 1.8% 2.3% 1.8%Religious 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4Hospitals/Clinics 2.2 10.6 9.1 10.1 11.2 12.3 12.8MED misc 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8Transportation Terminals* 0.2 0.7 4.5 2.4 1.7 1.7 1.8Police/Fire 0.6 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2Educational Facilities 10.8 9.5 9.7 11.5 12.1 12.5 12.9TOTAL INSTITUTIONAL 15.9 24.6 25.3 26.1 27.3 28.8 30.0 (Yr/yr % change) -35.4% 55.3% 2.8% 3.1% 4.5% 5.6% 4.1%TOTAL NON-RES BLDG 55.2 67.7 61.2 62.7 65.9 69.0 71.7 (Yr/yr % change) -27.3% 22.6% -9.5% 2.4% 5.2% 4.6% 3.9%RESIDENTIAL + NON-RES BLDG 267.5 289.3 242.9 234.6 255.1 273.0 290.1 (Yr/yr % change) -7.2% 8.2% -16.0% -3.4% 8.7% 7.0% 6.3%

* With respect to Tables 11 and 13, ‘transportation terminals’ is the one type-of-structure that is categorized differently in Canada (institutional) than in the U.S. (commercial), for reasons having to do with government statistics.






Table 14: Canada Type-of-Structure ForecastsArranged to match the alphabetical category drop-down menus in INSIGHT (Square Feet Millions)


SummaryNON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 55.2 67.7 61.2 62.7 65.9 69.0 71.7RESIDENTIAL 212.3 221.6 181.7 171.9 189.2 204.0 218.4RESIDENTIAL + NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 267.5 289.3 242.9 234.6 255.1 273.0 290.1

VerticalsOffices (private) 3.1 5.9 11.6 10.5 9.6 8.5 7.6Parking Garages 0.2 1.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4Transportation Terminals 0.2 0.7 4.5 2.4 1.7 1.7 1.8

Commercial 3.5 7.7 16.3 13.2 11.6 10.6 9.8 (Yr/yr % change) -70.6% 117.7% 111.5% -19.5% -12.0% -8.6% -7.2%

Amusement 5.5 5.5 3.0 4.3 4.7 4.8 5.0Religious 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4

Community 5.9 6.1 3.3 4.6 5.0 5.2 5.4 (Yr/yr % change) -11.6% 3.3% -45.7% 39.5% 9.3% 3.7% 3.2%Educational 10.8 9.5 9.7 11.5 12.1 12.5 12.9 (Yr/yr % change) -31.3% -12.0% 2.3% 17.9% 5.5% 3.3% 3.6%

Fire and Police Stations 0.6 1.9 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2


Government 3.6 3.8 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 (Yr/yr % change) 15.3% 4.8% -30.5% 0.9% 2.8% 2.6% 2.7%

Manufacturing 2.7 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9Warehouses 10.1 11.3 7.9 8.3 10.1 11.5 12.8

Industrial 12.8 16.1 12.5 12.9 14.8 16.3 17.7 (Yr/yr % change) 1.6% 25.6% -22.2% 3.2% 14.5% 10.1% 8.4%

Hospitals / Clinics 2.2 10.6 9.1 10.1 11.2 12.3 12.8Medical Misc. 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8

Medical 3.9 11.9 9.6 10.7 11.9 13.0 13.7 (Yr/yr % change) -40.9% 208.1% -19.6% 12.4% 11.0% 9.4% 4.7%


Retail 14.7 12.6 7.2 7.2 7.8 8.6 9.4 (Yr/yr % change) -23.5% -14.1% -43.1% -0.4% 8.9% 10.1% 9.3%

NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 55.2 67.7 61.2 62.7 65.9 69.0 71.7 (Yr/yr % change) -27.3% 22.6% -9.5% 2.4% 5.2% 4.6% 3.9%


RESIDENTIAL 212.3 221.6 181.7 171.9 189.2 204.0 218.4 (Yr/yr % change) 0.1% 4.4% -18.0% -5.4% 10.0% 7.8% 7.1%RESIDENTIAL + NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING 267.5 289.3 242.9 234.6 255.1 273.0 290.1 (Yr/yr % change) -7.2% 8.2% -16.0% -3.4% 8.7% 7.0% 6.3%










Graph 37: U.S. Residential Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 39: U.S. Residential + Non-Residential Building Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 38: U.S. Non-Residential Building Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 40: Canada Residential + Non-Residential Building Construction Starts — ConstructConnect



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Graph 41: Canada Residential Construction Starts — ConstructConnect

Graph 42: Canada Non-Residential Building Construction Starts — ConstructConnect



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50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Squ

are

Feet

Millio

ns

Year

Forecast



Dollar Volume


Square Footage




$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$ B

illi

on

s CA

D

Year

Forecast

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Squ

are

Feet

Millio

ns

Year

Forecast

Contributors:Oxford Economics — Abby Samp, Lead Economist; Toby Whittington, Economist / ConstructConnect — Alex Carrick, Chief Economist; Erich Falkenberg, National Production Manager

constructionconstructconnect.s3.amazonaws.com/forecast quarterly reports/20… · year-to-date...

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