conservatives are more concerned

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LEIDEN UNIVERSITY

Research Methods Assignment

Is there a connection between political preference and the level of concern towards the possible rise of Islamic extremism?

James Lo (0756105)

29-2-2012



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Table of content

Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 3 Research Question ................................................................................................................ 3

Analysis ................................................................................................................................. 3

SQ1: To what degree are citizens of America concerned? ................................................. 3

SQ2: For which political party do the citizens have a preference? ...................................... 5

SQ3: What is the level of concern in respect to the political preference? ........................... 5

SQ4: Is there a relation between the political preference and level of concern? ................. 6

Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 8

Discussion ............................................................................................................................. 9

Appendix A ...........................................................................................................................10

Appendix B ...........................................................................................................................12



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IntroductionThe dataset used was collected by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. The

data contains the results of cell phone interviews conducted using a random digit dialling

sample of cell phone numbers. A total of 999 interviews were done in English by Princeton

Data Source from the 21th of July till the 24th 2011. Ten years after the terrorist attack on 9/11

these interviews were held in order to find if there were extreme fears towards terrorists. Also

the upcoming elections in the United States were discussed in this interview.

It is useful to analyse these data, because both subjects - elections and terrorism - are very

important not only for America but affects the whole world. In this case the dataset is

focusing more on America. Americans seem more afraid for terrorist after the attack in 2001.

The question of the researchers was whether this is true or not. If it turns out that people are

more afraid it is relevant for the government to decide if they need to take action on this

subject. They can pay more attention towards any fears based on false information.

The dataset is analysed with a trial version of SPSS 20. Code retrieved to rebuild the charts

from the data is provided in appendix A. The dataset consists of a few variables describing

demographic data and specific questions regarding the opinion of a subject. The two most

important variables used in this research are: “In politics today, do you consider yourself a

Republican, Democrat or Independent?” (party) and “How concerned, if at all, are you about

the possible rise of Islamic extremism in the U.S.?” (pew16). A more detailed description of

each variable is found in appendix B.

Research QuestionWith the described dataset the question of this research is:

RQ: Is there a connection between political preference and the level of concern

towards the possible rise of Islamic extremism?

The hypothesis is that more conservative people, Republicans, would be more concerned

than progressive, Democrats, people or Independents.

AnalysisIn this chapter the sub questions are answered with the analysis of the dataset. These

questions will help by answering the main research questions. The sub questions are

indicated with the abbreviation SQn, where n is the number of the sub question.

SQ1: To what degree are citizens of America concerned?First of all it’s important to know whether there’s enough variability within the sample. To test

if that’s the case a bar chart will be made to check the variability in answers within the level

of concern. If there is no variability then there is no difference to research between political

preferences.



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Figure 1 Level of concern against the number of respondents

The bar chart shows that most of the respondents of the survey were concerned to a certain

degree. It shows that the largest group of respondents is very concerned and also that the

respondents can be divided over all groups tested. At this point it is clear how the level of

concern is divided over the citizens.

The table below contains the mean, skewness and kurtosis using the same variable; the

level of concern.

N Mean Skewness Kurtosis

Statistic Statistic Statistic Std. Error Statistic Std. Error

PEW.16 How concerned, if

at all, are you about the

possible rise of Islamic

extremism IN THE U.S.?

999 2,12 2,541 ,077 9,854 ,155

Valid N (listwise) 999

Table 1 Mean, skewness and kurtosis

The table above shows how the data concerning the level of concern is distributed. In table

Table 1 the mean consists of a number, which is derived from the values “Very concerned”,

“Somewhat concerned”, “Not too concerned”, “Not at all concerned”, “Don’t know/Refused”.

These values are assigned a number, which respectively are 1, 2, 3, 4, 9. The mean

indicates that overall the respondents, in respect to level of concern, are 2.12 (“Somewhat

concerned”). Altering the numeric reference prior to the calculation does not change the

results. SPSS automatically specifies the correct number to the category. The positive

skewness in a chart indicates that the line is skewed to the left, meaning that the mean <

median. The high kurtosis number indicates a sharp peak, meaning less diversity.



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SQ2: For which political party do the citizens have a preference?The same analysis can now be done, but on the political preference of a citizen. There are

not many parties to be distinct and can therefore be shown in a pie chart.

Figure 2 Division of political preference of respondents In the pie chart one can see that the largest group consists of the Independents, followed bythe Democrats and after that the Republicans. The difference in percentage between the 3

parties mentioned is not big. For this research it is good to compare for differences with SQ1,

because results will be more likely to be significant as every single group contains a

significant amount of respondents.

SQ3: What is the level of concern in respect to the political preference?To show the relation between SQ1 and SQ2 the following graph is used. The graph used is a

histogram containing the distribution of data of two nominal variables.



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Figure 3 Level of concern against political preference

In the graph you see that majority of the respondents preferring the Republican party arevery concerned of a possible rise of Islamic extremism. The same can be said about therespondents preferring the Independents. In contrast the Democrats are not that concernedat all. The respondents having no preference or preferring other parties are small groups andno significant remarks can be made for this group. The same can be said of respondentsrefusing or not knowing their preference, however the chart shows that the majority are veryconcerned as well.

SQ4: Is there a relation between the political preference and level of

concern?The charts shown before indicate a possibility of a relation between the political preference

and the level of concern. To analyse if there is a relation the use of descriptive techniques is

necessary. The correlation table describes if there’s a connection and if there is how strong

this connection is. Furthermore the significant is mentioned.



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PEW.16 Howconcerned, if atall, are youabout thepossible rise of

Islamicextremism INTHE U.S.?

PARTY. InpoliticsTODAY, doyou consideryourself a

Republican,Democrat, orIndependent?

PEW.16 How concerned, if at all,are you about the possible rise ofIslamic extremism IN THE U.S.?

Pearson Correlation 1 ,214

Sig. (2-tailed) ,000

N 999 999

PARTY. In politics TODAY, do youconsider yourself a Republican,Democrat, or Independent?

Pearson Correlation ,214 1

Sig. (2-tailed) ,000

N 999 999

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

Table 2 Correlation of variables

A Pearson correlation of 1 describes a strong relation between the two variables. This is the

case for both variables when comparing these variables with themselves. This should be and

is 1. When there is no relation then it is indicated with a 0. The level of concern and the

political preference do have a correlation with the number 0.214. This shows that there is a

relation, however not a strong relation, as it is not indicated with a zero.

In statistics the significance is most important to look at, because it assures the researcher

that the results did not occur by chance. Looking at the significance the relation is significant

because the value 0.000, which you can read from the table, is below 1% (0.01). This allows

the assumption that there is a relation between the two variables.

Though not supporting the research more, bewcause the comparison is between two

nominal variables, the mean, standard error and standard deviation are displayed below.

N Mean Std. Deviation Std. Error Mean

PEW.16 How concerned, ifat all, are you about thepossible rise of Islamicextremism IN THE U.S.?

999 2,12 1,382 ,044

PARTY. In politics TODAY,do you consider yourself aRepublican, Democrat, orIndependent?

999 2,51 1,652 ,052

Table 3 One-sample statistics

As mentioned before the mean consists of a number, which is derived from the values “Very

concerned”, “Somewhat concerned”, “Not too concerned”, “Not at all concerned”, “Don’t

know/Refused”. The mean is 2.12, which indicates it find itself in the category “Somewhat

concerned”. The same reasoning can be used for political party. Here 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 9

correspond to “Republican”, “Democrat”, and “Independent”, “No preference”, “Other party”



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and “Don’t know/Refused”. As mentioned in the guiding text of SQ1 these numbers are

assigned by SPSS in order to retrieve correct results. The mean of political preference is

2.51 (Democrat/Independent).

Second the standard deviation of both variables is shown. This is a measure of variability.

The larger the number of the standard deviation, the more variability there is. The SD of thelevel of concern is 1.382 compared to the SD of political preference is 1.652. This means that

there is more variability within the group regarding political preference than in the level of

concern.

Finally, the standard error of the mean of both variables is found in the table. This number

expresses to what extent these results deviate from the results that would be derived when

doing a survey using all the citizens of America. In short, this sample can be compared to the

population of America. The errors calculated are small; the level of concern has a standard

error of the mean of 0.044 and the political preference of 0.052. This indicates that the

political preference is slightly more deviated from the population than the level of concern.

Next a table containing the 95% confidence interval is shown.

Test Value = 0

t df Sig. (2-

tailed)

Mean

Difference

95% Confidence Interval of

the Difference

Lower Upper

PEW.16 How concerned, ifat all, are you about thepossible rise of Islamicextremism IN THE U.S.?

48,573 998 ,000 2,124 2,04 2,21

PARTY. In politics TODAY,do you consider yourself aRepublican, Democrat, orIndependent?

48,013 998 ,000 2,510 2,41 2,61

Table 4 Results of the T-test

From table Table 4 the 95% confidence interval of level of concern falls in the range of 2.04 -

2.21. This shows that it is in the category “Somewhat concerned”. The 95% confidenceinterval for parties is 2.41 – 2.61, which indicates that it is between Democrats and

Independents. The interval is small, which means that by taking a new sample the mean will

fall within the 95% confidence interval range.

ConclusionFrom the done analysis follows the answer to the main research question: “Is there a

connection between political preference and the level of concern towards the possible rise of

Islamic extremism?” is that there is a relation. This may be concluded because the variables

put against each other have a correlation of 0.214 and a significance level beneath 1%. Also

following from table Table 4 Results of the T-test the CI is small, which indicates that this

research reliable. With this it can be concluded that Republicans are more concerned than



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for example Democrats. More comparisons can be taken from figure Figure 3 Level of

concern against political preference.

Discussion

Difficulties in this research were that it was necessary to compare nominal variables witheach other. This raised the question about the correctness when analysing the results as the

numbers compared represented groups and the groups weren’t really comparable. But for

proving the main research question it was important to show this relation. Involving other

variables, i.e. age, would have given a more logical result, however it would not be useful for

this research and this dataset.

The result from this analysis is interesting to further research. For example; Why do the

respondents with a political preference for the Republicans have a higher level of concern

with the possible rise of Islamic extremism? Are they influenced by the political figures or did

the respondents choose the political party because of their policy on this topic? Therefore

these results ask for a following qualitative research to further investigate the motivations of

them.



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Appendix A

Bar chart (Figure 1 Level of concern against the number of respondents):

* Chart Builder.

GGRAPH/GRAPHDATASET NAME="graphdataset" VARIABLES=pew16 COUNT()[name="COUNT"] MISSING=LISTWISE

REPORTMISSING=NO

/GRAPHSPEC SOURCE=INLINE.

BEGIN GPL

SOURCE: s=userSource(id("graphdataset"))

DATA: pew16=col(source(s), name("pew16"), unit.category())

DATA: COUNT=col(source(s), name("COUNT"))

COORD: polar.theta(startAngle(0))

GUIDE: axis(dim(1), null())

GUIDE: legend(aesthetic(aesthetic.color.interior), label("PEW.16 How concerned, if at all,

are you about the possible rise of Islamic extremism IN THE U.S.?"))

SCALE: linear(dim(1), dataMinimum(), dataMaximum())

SCALE: cat(aesthetic(aesthetic.color.interior), include("1", "2", "3", "4", "9"))

ELEMENT: interval.stack(position(summary.percent(COUNT))), color.interior(pew16))

END GPL.

Mean, skewness and kurtosis (Table 1 Mean, skewness and kurtosis):

DESCRIPTIVES VARIABLES=pew16 /STATISTICS=MEAN KURTOSIS SKEWNESS.

Pie chart (Figure 2 Division of political preference of respondents):

* Chart Builder.

GGRAPH

/GRAPHDATASET NAME="graphdataset" VARIABLES=party COUNT()[name="COUNT"] MISSING=LISTWISEREPORTMISSING=NO


BEGIN GPL


DATA: party=col(source(s), name("party"), unit.category())


COORD: polar.theta(startAngle(0))

GUIDE: axis(dim(1), null())

GUIDE: legend(aesthetic(aesthetic.color.interior), label("PARTY. In politics TODAY, do you

consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?"))

SCALE: linear(dim(1), dataMinimum(), dataMaximum())

SCALE: cat(aesthetic(aesthetic.color.interior), include("1", "2", "3", "4", "5", "9"))

ELEMENT: interval.stack(position(summary.percent(COUNT))), color.interior(party))

END GPL.

Histogram (Figure 3 Level of concern against political preference):

* Chart Builder.

GGRAPH

/GRAPHDATASET NAME="graphdataset" VARIABLES=COUNT()[name="COUNT"] pew16 party

MISSING=LISTWISE REPORTMISSING=NO


BEGIN GPL



DATA: pew16=col(source(s), name("pew16"), unit.category())

DATA: party=col(source(s), name("party"), unit.category())

COORD: transpose(mirror(rect(dim(1,2))))

GUIDE: axis(dim(1), label("PEW.16 How concerned, if at all, are you about the possible rise

of Islamic extremism IN THE U.S.?"))GUIDE: axis(dim(1), opposite(), label("PEW.16 How concerned, if at all, are you about the

possible rise of Islamic extremism IN THE U.S.?"))



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GUIDE: axis(dim(2), label("Count"))

GUIDE: axis(dim(3), label("PARTY. In politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican,

Democrat, or Independent?"), opposite(), gap(0px))

GUIDE: legend(aesthetic(aesthetic.color), null())

SCALE: cat(dim(1), include("1", "2", "3", "4", "9"))

SCALE: cat(dim(3), include("1", "2", "3", "4", "5", "9"))

ELEMENT: interval(position(pew16*COUNT*party), color.interior(party))

END GPL.

Correlation (Table 2 Correlation of variables):

CORRELATIONS

/VARIABLES=pew16 party

/PRINT=TWOTAIL NOSIG

/MISSING=PAIRWISE.

T-test (Table 3 One-sample statistics and Table 4 Results of the T-test):

T-TEST

/TESTVAL=0/MISSING=ANALYSIS

/VARIABLES=pew16 party

/CRITERIA=CI(.95).



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Appendix B

Data labels with descriptions:

Label Descriptionpsraid Unique ID

sample Sample type

int_date Interview date

version Q.Revised REVISIONS TO QUESTIONNAIRE.

cregion Census Region - from zip merge

state State - from zip merge

density Recoded Population Density - from zip merge

usr Community type from zip merge - alpha

pew1aV1 PEW.1a Did you follow - (V1) A tentative agreement in the NFL labor dispute

that threatened to delay the football season - very closely, fairly closely, nottoo closely, or not at closely?

pew1aV2 PEW.1a Did you follow - (V2) A bombing and shooting attack in Norway thatkilled over 90 people - very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not atclosely?

pew1b PEW.1b Did you follow - Reports about the condition of the U.S. economy -very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely?

pew1c PEW.1c Did you follow - Reports that British newspapers owned by RupertMurdoch may have hacked into people's phones and illegally obtainedfinancial and medical records - very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, ornot at all closely?

pew1d PEW.1d Did you follow - The heat wave striking much of the nation - veryclosely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely?

pew1e PEW.1e Did you follow - News about possible candidates for the 2012presidential elections - very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at allclosely?

pew1f PEW.1f Did you follow - Discussions in Washington about how to addressthe federal budget deficit and national debt - very closely, fairly closely, nottoo closely, or not at all closely?

pew2 PEW.2 Which ONE of the stories I just mentioned have you followed mostclosely, or is there another story you’ve been following MORE closely?(Based on Saturday-Sunday Interviews only)

pew2os

pew3 PEW.3 Thinking about possible Republican candidates for president in2012… Regardless of whom you might prefer, which Republican candidatehave you heard the most about in the news recently?

pew3os

pew4 PEW.4 The next couple questions are about the news organizations whereyou get MOST of your news from. First, would you say your main sourcesget the facts straight, or do you think their stories and reports are ofteninaccurate?

pew5 PEW.5 And do you think these sources deal fairly with all sides, or do theytend to favor one side?

pew8 PEW.8 How much, if anything, have you heard about the proposal to buildan Islamic cultural center and mosque in New York City near the WorldTrade Center? Have you heard...?



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pew9 PEW.9 Do you think building the Islamic cultural center and mosque near theWorld Trade Center should be allowed, or should it not be allowed?

pew10 PEW.10 And do you personally feel that building the Islamic cultural centerand mosque near the World Trade Center is a good idea or a bad idea?

pew11 PEW.11 A British newspaper has been accused of hacking into the private

cell phone lines of British citizens, celebrities and elected officials. In yourview, how likely is it that American news organizations do the same thing?

pew12 PEW.12 Do you happen to know if News Corp. [PRONOUNCED: Kohrp], thecompany that owns the now closed British newspaper, owns any major newsorganizations in the United States, or not?

pew13 PEW.13 What news organizations does this company own?

PEW13oe_1 First mention-- What news organizations does this company own?

PEW13oe_2 Second mention-- What news organizations does this company own?

PEW13oe_3 Third mention-- What news organizations does this company own?

pew13vb

pew14a PEW.14a Thinking about recent news coverage of some people and groups,would you say the press has been too easy, too tough or fair in the way ithas covered--Barack Obama?

pew14b PEW.14b Thinking about recent news coverage of some people and groups,would you say the press has been too easy, too tough or fair in the way ithas covered--Republican leaders in Congress?

pew14c PEW.14c Thinking about recent news coverage of some people and groups,would you say the press has been too easy, too tough or fair in the way ithas covered--Democratic leaders in Congress?

pew14d PEW.14d Thinking about recent news coverage of some people and groups,would you say the press has been too easy, too tough or fair in the way ithas covered--Sarah Palin?

pew14e PEW.14e Thinking about recent news coverage of some people and groups,would you say the press has been too easy, too tough or fair in the way ithas covered--Mitt Romney?

pew14f PEW.14f Thinking about recent news coverage of some people and groups,would you say the press has been too easy, too tough or fair in the way ithas covered--Michele Bachmann?

pew15 PEW.15 How concerned, if at all, are you about the rise of Islamic extremismaround the WORLD these days?

pew16 PEW.16 How concerned, if at all, are you about the possible rise of Islamicextremism IN THE U.S.?

ql1 L1. Now thinking about your telephone use… Do you have a working cellphone?

ql1a L1a. Does anyone else in your household have a working cell phone?

qc1 C1. Now thinking about your telephone use… Is there at least one telephoneINSIDE your home that is currently working and is not a cell phone?

hh1 HH1. How many adults, age 18 and over, currently live in your householdINCLUDING YOURSELF?

employ EMPLOY. Are you now employed full-time, part-time, or not employed?

par PAR. Are you the parent or guardian of any children under 18 years of age?

sex SEX. Respondent’s sex

age AGE. What is your age?

recage Recoded age

educ EDUC. What is the last grade or class you completed in school? (DO NOTREAD)



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receduc Recoded education

hisp HISP. Are you of Hispanic or Latino origin, such as Mexican, Puerto Rican,Cuban or some other Spanish background?

race RACE. What is your race? Are you white, black, Asian, or some other race?

racethn Race/Ethnicity

relig RELIG What is your present religion, if any? Are you Protestant, RomanCatholic, Mormon, Orthodox such as Greek or Russian Orthodox, Jewish,Muslim, Buddhist, Hindu, atheist, agnostic, something else, or nothing inparticular?

chr CHR. Do you think of yourself as a Christian or not?

born BORN. Would you describe yourself as a ‘born again’ or evangelicalChristian, or not?

attend ATTEND. Aside from weddings and funerals, how often do you attendreligious services... more than once a week, once a week, once or twice amonth, a few times a year, seldom, or never?

inc INC. Last year, that is in 2010, approximately what was your total family

income before taxes?income Income Summary

party PARTY. In politics TODAY, do you consider yourself a Republican,Democrat, or Independent?

partyln PARTYLN. As of today do you lean more to the Republican Party or more tothe Democratic Party?

ideo IDEO In general, would you describe your political views as... [READ]

weight Final weight

conservatives are more concerned

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