Consequences of Regional-Scale Nuclear Conflicts: Understanding and Avoiding Nuclear Catastrophe

R.S. Norris, H.M. Kristensen, Bull. Atom. Scientists, 62 (4), 64 (2006).History of Nuclear Warheads

Chart1

606925012000

11011835011750

3203288769818

110011088768400

235123679828250

369537476507800

6402566573827200

100550105553005830

1436120155757352200

206315022182200

30572003267

46184265059

64446607124

982286910713

15468106016553

20434160522069

24126247126647

27387332230914

29459423833977

31056522136592

31982612938458

32040708939455

31233833939903

29224939938974

273421053838274

266621164338696

269561309240413

279121447842810

289991591545455

289651738546990

278261905547604

255792120547536

257222304449544

248262539351024

246052793553360

243043006255246

234643204956467

237083395258629

240993580460882

243573743162753

242373919764519

244014500070481

243444300068479

235864100065726

223803900062525

210043700059239

172873500053562

147473300049022

130763100045336

125552900042715

121442700040344

110092500037159

109502400036060

108712300034981

108242200033859

105772100032632

105272000031477

104751900030425

104211800029371

103581800029308

102951700028245

101041600026854

U.S.

Russia

World total

U.S. Deployed

Russia Deployed

Year

Number of Weapons

Sheet4

194566First use

19461111

19473232

1948110110

19492351236

19503695374

195164025665

19521,005501,055

19531,43612011,557

19542,06315052,218

19553,057200103,267

19564,618426155,059

19576,444660207,124

19589,8228692210,713

195915,4681,0602516,553

196020,4341,6053022,069

196124,1112,4715026,632

196227,2973,32220530,824

196329,2494,23828033,767

196430,7515,2213104136,287

196531,6426,12931032538,118

196631,7007,089270362039,115

196730,8938,339270362539,563

196828,8849,399280363538,634

196926,91010,538308365037,842

197026,11911,643280367538,153

197126,36513,0922204510039,822

197227,29614,4782207013042,194

197328,33515,91527511615044,791

197428,17017,38532514517046,195

197527,05219,05535018818546,830

197625,95621,20535021219047,913

197725,09923,04435022820048,920

197824,24325,39335023522050,441

197924,10727,93535023523552,862

198023,76430,06235025028054,706

198123,03132,04935027433056,034

198222,93733,95233527436057,858

198323,15435,80432027938059,937

198423,22837,43127028041561,624

198523,13539,19730036042563,417

198623,25440,72330035542565,057

198723,49038,85930042041563,484

198823,07737,33330041043061,550

198922,17435,80530041043559,124

199021,21133,41730050543055,863

199118,30628,59530054043548,176

199213,73125,15530054043540,161

199311,53622,10130052543534,897

199411,01218,39925051040030,571

199510,95314,97830050040027,131

199610,88612,08530045040024,121

199710,82911,26426045040023,203

199810,76310,76426045040022,637

199910,69810,45118545040022,184

200010,61510,20118547040021,871

200110,4919,12620035040020,567

200210,6008,60020035040020,150

Sheet4

619456

11194611

32194732

1101948110

2351236

3695374

64025665

1005501055

14361201557

20631502218

30572003267

46184265059

64446607124

982286910713

15468106016553

20434160522069

24111247126632

27297332230824

29249423833767

30751522136287

31642612938118

31700708939115

30893833939563

28884939938634

269101053837842

261191164338153

263651309239822

272961447842194

283351591544791

281701738546195

270521905546830

259562120547913

250992304448920

242432539350441

241072793552862

237643006254706

230313204956034

229373395257858

231543580459937

232283743161624

231353919763417

232544072365057

234903885963484

230773733361550

221743580559124

212113341755863

183062859548176

137312515540161

115362210134897

110121839930571

109531497827131

108861208524121

108291126423203

107631076422637

106981045122184

106151020121871

10491912620567

10600860020150

U.S.

Russia

Total

Year

Number of Weapons

Sheet1

194519451945

194619461946

194719471947

194819481948

194919491949

195019501950

195119511951

195219521952

119531953

519541954

1019551955

1519561956

2019571957

2219581958

2519591959

3019601960

5019611961

20519621962

28019631963

31041

310325

2703620

2703625

2803635

3083650

2803675

22045100

22070130

275116150

325145170

350188185

350212190

350228200

350235220

350235235

350250280

350274330

335274360

320279380

270280415

300360425

300355425

300420415

300410430

300410435

300505430

300540435

300540435

300525435

250510400

300500400

300450400

260450400

260450400

185450400

185470400

200350400

200350400

U.K.

France

China

U.K.

France

China

Year

Number of Weapons

Sheet5

6

11

32

110

236

374

665

1055

1557

2218

3267

5059

7124

10713

16553

22069

26632

30824

33767

36287

38118

39115

39563

38634

37842

38153

39822

42194

44791

46195

46830

47913

48920

50441

52862

54706

56034

57858

59937

61624

63417

65057

63484

61550

59124

55863

48176

40161

34897

30571

27131

24121

23203

22637

22184

21871

20567

20150

Limited Test Ban Treaty

Outer Space Treaty

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

SALT-I ABM Treaty

SALT-II

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty II

Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty

U.S. fission weapons deleloped and used

U.S. withdraws ABM treatyRussia withdraws from START II

U.S. quits SALT II

USSR explodes first weapon

U.K. explodes fisison weapon U.S. explodes H-Bomb

French nuclear weapon

Chinese fission weapon

Chinese H-bomb, Israeli nuclear weapon

Indian fission weapon

India and Pakistan weapon tests

South African nuclear weapon

Iran and North Korea seek nuclear weapons

Total weapons

Year

Total Number of Weapons

Sheet2

1945

1946

1947

1948

1949

1950

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

U.S. fission weapons developed and used

Iran and North Korea seek nuclear weapons

U.S. withdraws ABM treaty, Russia withdraws from STARTII

India and Pakistan test weapons

South African Nuclear Weapon

Indian Nuclear Test

Chinese H-Bomb, Israeli Nuclear Weapon

Chinese Nuclear Test

French Nuclear Weapon

U.K. Nuclear Test, U.S. H-Bomb

U.S. quits SALT-II

USSR Nuclear Test

Limited Test Ban Treaty

Outer Space Treaty

Nuclear NPT

SALT, ABM Treaty

SALT II

Intermediate Range Nuclear Treaty

START

START II

Comprehensive Test Ban

Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty

Nuclear weapons

Sheet3

1945 6 6661945

1946 11 1111116

1947 32 326

1948 110 11011111946

1949 235 1 23611011011

1950 369 5 37411

1951 640 25 6651947

1952 1,005 50 1,05532

1953 1,436 120 1 1,55732

1954 2,063 150 5 2,2181948

1955 3,057 200 10 3,267110

1956 4,618 426 15 5,059110

1957 6,444 660 20 7,1241949

1958 9,822 869 22 10,713235

1

236

1950

369

5

374

1951

640

25

665

1952

1,005

50

1,055

1953

1,436

120

1

1,557

1954

2,063

150

5

2,218

1955

3,057

200

10

3,267

1956

4,618

426

15

5,059

1957

6,444

660

20

7,124

1958

9,822

869

22

10,713

1959

15,468

1,060

25

16,553

1960

20,434

1,605

30

22,069

1961

24,126

2,471

50

26,647

1962

27,387

3,322

205

30,914

1963

29,459

4,238

280

33,977

1964

31,056

5,221

310

4

1

36,592

1965

31,982

6,129

310

32

5

38,458

1966

32,040

7,089

270

36

20

39,455

1967

31,233

8,339

270

36

25

39,903

1968

29,224

9,399

280

36

35

38,974

1969

27,342

10,538

308

36

50

38,274

1970

26,662

11,643

280

36

75

38,696

1971

26,956

13,092

220

45

100

40,413

1972

27,912

14,478

220

70

130

42,810

1973

28,999

15,915

275

116

150

45,455

1974

28,965

17,385

325

145

170

46,990

1975

27,826

19,055

350

188

185

47,604

1976

25,579

21,205

350

212

190

47,536

1977

25,722

23,044

350

228

200

49,544

1978

24,826

25,393

350

235

220

51,024

1979

24,605

27,935

350

235

235

53,360

1980

24,304

30,062

350

250

280

55,246

1981

23,464

32,049

350

274

330

56,467

1982

23,708

33,952

335

274

360

58,629

1983

24,099

35,804

320

279

380

60,882

1984

24,357

37,431

270

280

415

62,753

1985

24,237

39,197

300

360

425

64,519

1986

24,401

45,000

300

355

425

70,481

1987

24,344

43,000

300

420

415

68,479

1988

23,586

41,000

300

410

430

65,726

1989

22,380

39,000

300

410

435

62,525

1990

21,004

37,000

300

505

430

59,239

1991

17,287

35,000

300

540

435

53,562

1992

14,747

33,000

300

540

435

49,022

1993

13,076

31,000

300

525

435

45,336

1994

12,555

29,000

250

510

400

42,715

1995

12,144

27,000

300

500

400

40,344

1996

11,009

25,000

300

450

400

37,159

1997

10,950

24,000

260

450

400

36,060

1998

10,871

23,000

260

450

400

34,981

1999

10,824

22,000

185

450

400

33,859

2000

10,577

21,000

185

470

400

32,632

2001

10,527

20,000

200

350

400

31,477

2002

10,475

19,000

200

350

400

30,425

2003

10,421

18,000

200

350

400

29,371

2004

10,358

18,000

200

350

400

29,308

2005

10,295

17,000

200

350

400

28,245

2006

10,104

16,000

200

350

200

26,854

1945600006

194611000011

194732000032

19481100000110

19492351000236

19503695000374

195164025000665

19521,005500001,055

19531,4361201001,557

19542,0631500052,218

19553,05720010003,267

19564,61842615005,059

19576,44466020007,124

19589,822869220010,713

195915,4681,060250016,553

196020,4341,605300022,069

196124,1262,471500026,647

196227,3873,3222050030,914

196329,4594,2382800033,977

196431,0565,2213104136,592

196531,9826,12931032538,458

196632,0407,089270362039,455

196731,2338,339270362539,903

196829,2249,399280363538,974

196927,34210,538308365038,274

197026,66211,643280367538,696

197126,95613,0922204510040,413

197227,91214,4782207013042,810

197328,99915,91527511615045,455

197428,96517,38532514517046,990

197527,82619,05535018818547,604

197625,57921,20535021219047,536

197725,72223,04435022820049,544

197824,82625,39335023522051,024

197924,60527,93535023523553,360

198024,30430,06235025028055,246

198123,46432,04935027433056,467

198223,70833,95233527436058,629

198324,09935,80432027938060,882

198424,35737,43127028041562,753

198524,23739,19730036042564,519

198624,40145,00030035542570,481

198724,34443,00030042041568,479

198823,58641,00030041043065,726

198922,38039,00030041043562,525

199021,00437,00030050543059,239

199117,28735,00030054043553,562

199214,74733,00030054043549,022

199313,07631,00030052543545,336

199412,55529,00025051040042,715

199512,14412,00027,00030050040040,34419969250199512,000

1996925011,00911,75025,00030045040037,15919988350199611,750

199710,95024,00026045040036,0602000887620019,818

1998835010,87123,00026045040034,9812001887620028,400

199910,82422,00018545040033,8592002798220038,250

2000887610,57721,00018547040032,6322003765020047,800

2001887610,5279,81820,00020035040031,4772004738220057,200

2002798210,4758,40019,00020035040030,4252005530020065,830

2003765010,4218,25018,00020035040029,3712006573520122200

2004738210,3587,80018,00020035040029,30820122200

2005530010,2957,20017,00020035040028,245

2006573510,1045,83016,00020035020026,854

201222002200

yearus deployedusrussia deployedrussiabritainfrancechinatotal

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

00000

0000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

U,S,

russia

total

U.S. deployed

Russia Deployed

Year

Number

War heads worldwide

New nuclear states continue to appear

Chart3

00

11

22

33

44

55

66

77

88

79

1010

711

812

913

14

U.S.

U.S.S.R

U.K.

France

China

Israel?

India

South Africa?

Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine

Pakistan

North Korea

One new state per 5 years

Number of Nuclear Weapons States

1 per 5 years

Year

Number of Nuclear States

Chart1

606925012000

11011835011750

3203288769818

110011088768400

235123679828250

369537476507800

6402566573827200

100550105553005830

1436120155757352200

206315022182200

30572003267

46184265059

64446607124

982286910713

15468106016553

20434160522069

24126247126647

27387332230914

29459423833977

31056522136592

31982612938458

32040708939455

31233833939903

29224939938974

273421053838274

266621164338696

269561309240413

279121447842810

289991591545455

289651738546990

278261905547604

255792120547536

257222304449544

248262539351024

246052793553360

243043006255246

234643204956467

237083395258629

240993580460882

243573743162753

242373919764519

244014500070481

243444300068479

235864100065726

223803900062525

210043700059239

172873500053562

147473300049022

130763100045336

125552900042715

121442700040344

110092500037159

109502400036060

108712300034981

108242200033859

105772100032632

105272000031477

104751900030425

104211800029371

103581800029308

102951700028245

101041600026854

U.S.

Russia

World total

U.S. Deployed

Russia Deployed

Year

Number of Weapons

Sheet4

194566First use

19461111

19473232

1948110110

19492351236

19503695374

195164025665

19521,005501,055

19531,43612011,557

19542,06315052,218

19553,057200103,267

19564,618426155,059

19576,444660207,124

19589,8228692210,713

195915,4681,0602516,553

196020,4341,6053022,069

196124,1112,4715026,632

196227,2973,32220530,824

196329,2494,23828033,767

196430,7515,2213104136,287

196531,6426,12931032538,118

196631,7007,089270362039,115

196730,8938,339270362539,563

196828,8849,399280363538,634

196926,91010,538308365037,842

197026,11911,643280367538,153

197126,36513,0922204510039,822

197227,29614,4782207013042,194

197328,33515,91527511615044,791

197428,17017,38532514517046,195

197527,05219,05535018818546,830

197625,95621,20535021219047,913

197725,09923,04435022820048,920

197824,24325,39335023522050,441

197924,10727,93535023523552,862

198023,76430,06235025028054,706

198123,03132,04935027433056,034

198222,93733,95233527436057,858

198323,15435,80432027938059,937

198423,22837,43127028041561,624

198523,13539,19730036042563,417

198623,25440,72330035542565,057

198723,49038,85930042041563,484

198823,07737,33330041043061,550

198922,17435,80530041043559,124

199021,21133,41730050543055,863

199118,30628,59530054043548,176

199213,73125,15530054043540,161

199311,53622,10130052543534,897

199411,01218,39925051040030,571

199510,95314,97830050040027,131

199610,88612,08530045040024,121

199710,82911,26426045040023,203

199810,76310,76426045040022,637

199910,69810,45118545040022,184

200010,61510,20118547040021,871

200110,4919,12620035040020,567

200210,6008,60020035040020,150

Sheet4

U.S.

Russia

Total

Year

Number of Weapons

Sheet1

U.K.

France

China

U.K.

France

China

Year

Number of Weapons

Sheet6

Limited Test Ban Treaty

Outer Space Treaty

Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

SALT-I ABM Treaty

SALT-II

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty

Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty II

Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty

U.S. fission weapons deleloped and used

U.S. withdraws ABM treatyRussia withdraws from START II

U.S. quits SALT II

USSR explodes first weapon

U.K. explodes fisison weapon U.S. explodes H-Bomb

French nuclear weapon

Chinese fission weapon

Chinese H-bomb, Israeli nuclear weapon

Indian fission weapon

India and Pakistan weapon tests

South African nuclear weapon

Iran and North Korea seek nuclear weapons

Total weapons

Year

Total Number of Weapons

Sheet5

U.S. fission weapons developed and used

Iran and North Korea seek nuclear weapons

U.S. withdraws ABM treaty, Russia withdraws from STARTII

India and Pakistan test weapons

South African Nuclear Weapon

Indian Nuclear Test

Chinese H-Bomb, Israeli Nuclear Weapon

Chinese Nuclear Test

French Nuclear Weapon

U.K. Nuclear Test, U.S. H-Bomb

U.S. quits SALT-II

USSR Nuclear Test

Limited Test Ban Treaty

Outer Space Treaty

Nuclear NPT

SALT, ABM Treaty

SALT II

Intermediate Range Nuclear Treaty

START

START II

Comprehensive Test Ban

Strategic Offensive Reduction Treaty

Nuclear weapons

Sheet2

1945 6 6661945

1946 11 1111116

1947 32 326

1948 110 11011111946

1949 235 1 23611011011

1950 369 5 37411

1951 640 25 6651947

1952 1,005 50 1,05532

1953 1,436 120 1 1,55732

1954 2,063 150 5 2,2181948

1955 3,057 200 10 3,267110

1956 4,618 426 15 5,059110

1957 6,444 660 20 7,1241949

1958 9,822 869 22 10,713235

1

236

1950

369

5

374

1951

640

25

665

1952

1,005

50

1,055

1953

1,436

120

1

1,557

1954

2,063

150

5

2,218

1955

3,057

200

10

3,267

1956

4,618

426

15

5,059

1957

6,444

660

20

7,124

1958

9,822

869

22

10,713

1959

15,468

1,060

25

16,553

1960

20,434

1,605

30

22,069

1961

24,126

2,471

50

26,647

1962

27,387

3,322

205

30,914

1963

29,459

4,238

280

33,977

1964

31,056

5,221

310

4

1

36,592

1965

31,982

6,129

310

32

5

38,458

1966

32,040

7,089

270

36

20

39,455

1967

31,233

8,339

270

36

25

39,903

1968

29,224

9,399

280

36

35

38,974

1969

27,342

10,538

308

36

50

38,274

1970

26,662

11,643

280

36

75

38,696

1971

26,956

13,092

220

45

100

40,413

1972

27,912

14,478

220

70

130

42,810

1973

28,999

15,915

275

116

150

45,455

1974

28,965

17,385

325

145

170

46,990

1975

27,826

19,055

350

188

185

47,604

1976

25,579

21,205

350

212

190

47,536

1977

25,722

23,044

350

228

200

49,544

1978

24,826

25,393

350

235

220

51,024

1979

24,605

27,935

350

235

235

53,360

1980

24,304

30,062

350

250

280

55,246

1981

23,464

32,049

350

274

330

56,467

1982

23,708

33,952

335

274

360

58,629

1983

24,099

35,804

320

279

380

60,882

1984

24,357

37,431

270

280

415

62,753

1985

24,237

39,197

300

360

425

64,519

1986

24,401

45,000

300

355

425

70,481

1987

24,344

43,000

300

420

415

68,479

1988

23,586

41,000

300

410

430

65,726

1989

22,380

39,000

300

410

435

62,525

1990

21,004

37,000

300

505

430

59,239

1991

17,287

35,000

300

540

435

53,562

1992

14,747

33,000

300

540

435

49,022

1993

13,076

31,000

300

525

435

45,336

1994

12,555

29,000

250

510

400

42,715

1995

12,144

27,000

300

500

400

40,344

1996

11,009

25,000

300

450

400

37,159

1997

10,950

24,000

260

450

400

36,060

1998

10,871

23,000

260

450

400

34,981

1999

10,824

22,000

185

450

400

33,859

2000

10,577

21,000

185

470

400

32,632

2001

10,527

20,000

200

350

400

31,477

2002

10,475

19,000

200

350

400

30,425

2003

10,421

18,000

200

350

400

29,371

2004

10,358

18,000

200

350

400

29,308

2005

10,295

17,000

200

350

400

28,245

2006

10,104

16,000

200

350

200

26,854

Sheet3

1940019400

19451U.S.19451

19492Russia19502

19523United Kingdom19553

19604France19604

19645China19655

19676Israel ?19706

19747India19757

19798South Africa ?19808

19907South Africa19859

199110Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhatan199010

19967199511

19988Pakistan200012

20069North Korea200513

201014

Sheet3

U.S.

U.S.S.R

U.K.

France

China

Israel?

India

South Africa?

Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine

Pakistan

North Korea

One new state per 5 years

Number of Nuclear Weapons States

1 per 5 years

Year

Number of Nuclear States

1945600006

194611000011

194732000032

19481100000110

19492351000236

19503695000374

195164025000665

19521,005500001,055

19531,4361201001,557

19542,0631500052,218

19553,05720010003,267

19564,61842615005,059

19576,44466020007,124

19589,822869220010,713

195915,4681,060250016,553

196020,4341,605300022,069

196124,1262,471500026,647

196227,3873,3222050030,914

196329,4594,2382800033,977

196431,0565,2213104136,592

196531,9826,12931032538,458

196632,0407,089270362039,455

196731,2338,339270362539,903

196829,2249,399280363538,974

196927,34210,538308365038,274

197026,66211,643280367538,696

197126,95613,0922204510040,413

197227,91214,4782207013042,810

197328,99915,91527511615045,455

197428,96517,38532514517046,990

197527,82619,05535018818547,604

197625,57921,20535021219047,536

197725,72223,04435022820049,544

197824,82625,39335023522051,024

197924,60527,93535023523553,360

198024,30430,06235025028055,246

198123,46432,04935027433056,467

198223,70833,95233527436058,629

198324,09935,80432027938060,882

198424,35737,43127028041562,753

198524,23739,19730036042564,519

198624,40145,00030035542570,481

198724,34443,00030042041568,479

198823,58641,00030041043065,726

198922,38039,00030041043562,525

199021,00437,00030050543059,239

199117,28735,00030054043553,562

199214,74733,00030054043549,022

199313,07631,00030052543545,336

199412,55529,00025051040042,715

199512,14412,00027,00030050040040,34419969250199512,000

1996925011,00911,75025,00030045040037,15919988350199611,750

199710,95024,00026045040036,0602000887620019,818

1998835010,87123,00026045040034,9812001887620028,400

199910,82422,00018545040033,8592002798220038,250

2000887610,57721,00018547040032,6322003765020047,800

2001887610,5279,81820,00020035040031,4772004738220057,200

2002798210,4758,40019,00020035040030,4252005530020065,830

2003765010,4218,25018,00020035040029,3712006573520122200

2004738210,3587,80018,00020035040029,30820122200

2005530010,2957,20017,00020035040028,245

2006573510,1045,83016,00020035020026,854

201222002200

yearus deployedusrussia deployedrussiabritainfrancechinatotal

U,S,

russia

total

U.S. deployed

Russia Deployed

Year

Number

War heads worldwide

Nuclear Weapons StatesD. Albright, F. Berkhout, W. Walker, Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium, 1996 (Oxford, 1997) http://www.isis-online.orgR.S. Norris, H.M. Kristensen, Bull. Atom. Scientists, 61 (3), 64 (2005).NWSDeFactoIsrael, 116 (102-130)Pakistan, 52 (44-62), 1998South Africa 7, dismantled 1989, 1979?North Korea, 10?, 2007India, 85 (65-110), 1974, 1998

Fatalities relative to previous conflicts

Chart6

318.5714285714

385000

0.2289156627

72

0.4543918919

190.3333333333

0.6377777778

80.3571428571

0.1045475856

62.875

0.0168926554

0.2781456954

0.5086419753

Fraction of previous wars from one weapon

Fataliities from One Airburst/ Fatalities in Previous Wars

Sheet1

Argentina223,000156,0007001.00318.5714285714

Brazil385,000266,00011.00385000

China760,000592,0003,320,0006.000.2289156627

Egypt612,000601,00085001.0072

France269,000198,000592,0003.000.4543918919

India571,000469,0003,0001.00190.3333333333

Iran287,000274,000450,0002.000.6377777778

Israel225,000161,0002,8001.0080.3571428571

Japan223,000206,0002,133,00014.000.1045475856

Pakistan503,000487,0008,0001.0062.875

Russia299,000237,00017,700,000>500.0168926554

U.K.126,000111,000453,0005.000.2781456954

U.S.206,000190,000405,0003.000.5086419753

airburstairburst 2nd citynumber to create previous

fatalities in prevous wars

Sheet1

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

Previous conflicts

Airburst Fatalities

Densest location

2nd Densest location

Fatalities, Highest Density Location

Fatalities, Second Highest Density Location

Falities from Previous Conflicts

Sheet2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Fraction of previous wars from one weapon

Fataliities from One Airburst/ Fatalities in Previous Wars

Sheet3

Sheet1

Argentina223,000156,0007001.00318.5714285714

Brazil385,000266,00011.00385000

China760,000592,0003,320,0006.000.2289156627

Egypt612,000601,00085001.0072

France269,000198,000592,0003.000.4543918919

India571,000469,0003,0001.00190.3333333333

Iran287,000274,000450,0002.000.6377777778

Israel225,000161,0002,8001.0080.3571428571

Japan223,000206,0002,133,00014.000.1045475856

Pakistan503,000487,0008,0001.0062.875

Russia299,000237,00017,700,00050.000.0168926554

U.K.126,000111,000453,0005.000.2781456954

U.S.206,000190,000405,0003.000.5086419753

airburstairburst 2nd citynumber to create previous

fatalities in prevous wars

Sheet1

Previous conflicts

Airburst Fatalities

Densest location

2nd Densest location

Fatalities, Highest Density Location

Fatalities, Second Highest Density Location

Falities from Previous Conflicts

Sheet2

Fraction of previous wars from one weapon

Fataliities from One Airburst/ Fatalities in Previous Wars

Sheet3

Number of Explosions

Number of Explosions to Equal Fatalities in Previous Wars

Fatality Estimates for Nuclear WarsThe deaths per kt are 100 times greater for small yield weapons than for large ones.

SourceTotal Yield# of WeaponsFatalitiesAmbio (1982)(world)5569 Mt14,747950,000,000Harwell (1984)1400 Mt>300050-100,000,000 (blast)OTA (1979)U.S.1000s Mt1000s20-160,000,000OTA (1979)Counterforce2-20,000,000(fallout)Daugherty (1986)Counterforce1340 Mt30007-19,000,000(blast)Regional U.S.0.75 Mt504,000,000Regional India/Pakistan1.5 Mt10026,000,000

Fuel loading per personWe assume fuel loading is proportional to population

Chart1

1.11.315.603875134632.3088472.071.4356

2.21.611.7056

4.41.42.6056

6.61.944.4056

8.81.526.2056

112.138.0056

229.8056

4418.8056

6636.8056

8854.8056

72.8056

Population based fuel loading

San Jose (Simonett)

Hamburg OTA

Hamburg Ebert

Hamburg Scope

Bush

Bush linear fit

Population density ( km-2)

Fuel loading (g/cm2)

Sheet1

City1998 pop1998 popdensity #/km2pop at densityarea km2PakistanIndiaIsrealchinafrancebritainU.S. bombsus submarinesus icbmscruise misslesnon strategicrussiaus total 10455

Karachi central933902333014227793169weapons-124-4860-90100-200270-470348200114536002085180016108400

Karachi east197562746014139av. Yield4-12ktons?200-5000kt100-300kt100kton10-1000ktons100-475 ktons170-3355-150ktons.3-170

Karachi south143041745038122

Lahore5,143,495356663187451772potential weapons30-55

Faisalabad200886192754295475856time in hours48 hour radiation dose for 1 km2area for 450 rad 48 hour dose km2

Rawalpindi1409768528633639116361304195.5675.99

Multan119738483831168513720381396.7902501447180.8817561114

Hyderabad116689452428914885519635430.0108013878.7333573364

Gujranwala1,132,509939340094036221215421.807930364634.2706842897

PESHAWAR982816161220268511612246712.731790411814.9171817565

Quetta5651372867599412653364126.57539439579.1701675431

Islamabad529180889805235906radiaiont dose at 1hr482921.88622069946.4930804904

23,475,0673488249226626112665721796.19626703763.9915472601

Pakistan132352279166796096

Tokyo134168340000621

New York (Manhattan)26978153700057

1998 pop from Gov. Of Pakistan Census

http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/nudb/datainx.asp

1Bull Atmoic scientists

area of us km2area of 50 15kt explosion 48 hr 450rad dose,km2fraction of us

93600007500.0000801282

area with rainfallfraction of us

1500000.016025641

Hiroshimazone miles from centerareapopdensity sq. mdensity sq. kmkilledinjuredfractoin killedfraction injuredcoefficnet in fraction killed

0.60.9662.92921851631200258009961.389961392670030000.85576923080.0961538462-0.2239608218

1.62.57617.90077982144800227008764.478764478839600530000.2734806630.3660220994-0.3837987149

3.14.99160.2930811218030035001351.35135135141700200000.02117061020.2490660025-0.2502147334

6800076000

Nagasaki0.60.9662.92921851630900255009845.55984555982730019000.88349514560.0614886731-0.180908159

1.62.57617.900779822770044001698.8416988417950081000.34296028880.2924187726-0.34709468

3.14.99160.29308112111520051001969.1119691121300110000.01128472220.0954861111-0.2527418284

3810021000

Karachi Killed hiroshima (I&S)

sq. m to sq. km253859.903789445-0.2731198229

2.59Karachi severely injured hiroshima (I and S)

m to km136646.727392955

1.61karachi slightly injured

Karachi centralkilled (G&D)injured (g&D)266701.160045328

Hiroshima scaling286518.38813873721378.789618248

Nagasaki scaling310582.428114514368825.46403077R2=0.9598

width of distributionwidth

1.1461.46270129531.8692405136

ln rHiroshima isakawa and Swain, table 7.9, centerd radiuszone,kmarealn densitypopdensuty sq. kmkilledseverly injuredln fratoin killed.fraction killedfraction severely injuredfraction slightly injurednumber slightly injurednormal distribuiotnjradius sqcasualties-severecasualties minorln casu sigln casu minornormnal major casualtiy

-1.38629436110.250.50.785397510.22488017232166227580.938314675119339478-0.1134357910.89276151790.02206629120.01560336073380.97648613220.06250.91482780910.9304311698-0.0890194182-0.07210717680.98550578110.9910938448

-0.28768207250.7512.356192510.02167923855303622509.1965108963422713046-0.22686965650.79702466250.05743268720.036182970119190.80722521520.56250.85445734970.8906403198-0.1572886902-0.11581461450.87686469870.9226415546

0.22314355131.251.53.92698759.718430526527116621.1377041562376897732-0.54917955880.5774233580.11845995920.145884083395220.55163523511.56250.69588331720.8417674005-0.3625732803-0.17225154930.69419168370.7995939039

0.55961578791.7525.49778258.9986748947444908092.3535989283134227627-1.19836929310.30168577210.17143178240.2588446842115160.31162903653.06250.47311755450.7319622387-0.7484113918-0.31202635280.48898961620.6450957338

0.81093021622.252.57.06857758.9164457872526867453.550590624545137830-2.45738764480.08565842920.14861633070.2685533159141490.14552998185.06250.23427475990.5028280758-1.4512606648-0.6875069650.30647374650.4845036989

1.01160091172.7538.63937258.1788101375307963564.610739958211392923-3.2972341270.03698532280.0949149240.220645538467950.0561818037.56250.13190024680.3525457852-2.0257093483-1.04257477820.17090718770.3387569827

1.17865499633.253.510.21016757.1320179211127771251.3996464798117474-4.69322802380.00915707910.03709791030.151365735319340.017929472410.56250.04625498940.1976207247-3.0735859412-1.62140561690.08480096390.2204944421

1.321755843.75411.78096257.1935926352156791330.8759789364100295-5.05490733040.00637795780.01881497540.112762293517680.004730074614.06250.02519293320.1379552267-3.6811917515-1.98082609040.03743817410.133605787

1.44691898294.254.513.35175755.86473302794705352.3880657659864-6.37693951030.00170031880.01360255050.07927736453730.001031566218.06250.01530286930.0945802338-4.179714933-2.35830676990.01470624990.0753652465

1.5581446184.75514.92255256.12430111216817456.82533199333136-5.39318756690.00454745490.00528091540.02288396661560.000185975122.56250.00982837030.0327123368-4.622482152-3.42000299990.00513999420.0395763019

78.53975

A fatalitiesfkilledfinjured

7.983597444111.80209479320.28236223780.4174140693

normal fit to hiroshma pop den

hiroshima radius for 50% casualty27446.666483987527071.51914041680fatalityerror at 2.5kmcasuality error

1.349311885824249.16590247861.34931188580.030.12

hiroshim radius for 90% casulaity1.506871936719456.51977853780

2.4592770661sigma for 1 million pop.13983.55814201282.45927706610.0001758692

6.99002.319091871600

5191.289999021100

2681.515771495200

1240.708045408700

find 555 death rate size.514.212960660800

0.950.5250.3867410235190.89766516761.4750.0077266529

0.60.70.54881163611.30

1.590.2050.20392561170

1.60.20.201896518

1.610.1950.1998876141

0.60.70.5488116361

hiroshima killed with realistic density distribuion

11.9632318572

R for 50% death rate5psi radius20 cal

2.05002712188.1669037755

10.70235617651.74794779881.2927212824

31.0557921463

51.10362450332psi10 cal

101.11106066672.9977057441.761682154

201.1111111088

2.10.9750484131

Hiorshima pop inside 3kmfatalities inside 3km

2166219339

5303642271

6527137689

4449013422

526864513

307961139

0.4417875577

267941118373

Area for desnity data

2.5'deathsJapandeathsusdeaths and casualties

Area PakistanIndia total deathsIndia pop. Density #/km^2Number of areas with densityimmdiate deaths and sefvere casualtiesPakistan popden/km^2# binseventual deathscumulative pop densityindiapakistanchina pop dencities10038182831.576680145410064183046.1235015923

83367.943733762610103183367.9437337626India lumped density 50000 interval centeered.1707114085.8240080702101541710342185340.124130908900

00125006310159116010075183136.89331066610234184448.9296418219

83425.706339536810110183425.7063395368175002861708114094.07580889520631010798489102.945307054200

0022500157025483010093183285.425725513810289184902.7786871903

84869.771483890810285184869.7714838908275001521713114135.33481301943033111108191661.00356276700

00325002403591010184184036.339600577910608187535.103150327

85067.814703687910309185067.8147036879375001715114151.8384146692409111111191685.758965241700

00425001104580010353185430.893939982610618187617.6211585758

85224.598919360610328185224.59891936064750011717114168.342016319507011207192477.931844430100

0052500705560010373185595.929956480210641187807.4125775481

85653.692562254410380185653.692562254417204914193.097418793611262192931.780889798500

00154170010382185670.196163904110696188261.2616229165

86132.297010097410438186132.29701009741757114498.414049314211831197627.055559155300

000010448186214.815018346210732188558.3264526121

86239.570420820910451186239.57042082091763114547.924854263411993198963.847292785800

000010488286544.887051341410742188640.8444608609

86833.700080212210523186833.70008021221796114820.2342814845124191102479.11444418500

000010504186676.915864539511054191215.4063182235

88186.995415492510687188186.99541549251895115637.1625631476128341105903.6117865100

000010830189367.002933450411234192700.7304667019

88599.585456736510737188599.58545673651997116478.8462472854129431106803.05807642200

000010843189474.276344173811245192791.5002757756

89342.247530975710827189342.24753097572026116718.1484712069132371109229.08751893700

000010862189631.060559846511841197709.5735674041

92774.996674125811243192774.99667412582031116759.4074753313134071110631.89365916600

000010877189754.8375722197125181103296.042725848

93187.586715369811293193187.58671536982075117122.486711626138091113949.11759076800

000010957190414.9816382101131471108486.425444697

93352.622731867411313193352.62273186742108117394.796138847139231114889.82288480400

000010985190646.0320613068133311110004.756796475

95035.990100142911517195035.99010014292183118013.681200713146241120674.33526304500

000011066191314.4279281221135961112191.484015068

95341.306730663511554195341.30673066352190118071.4438064872147581121780.07657357900

000011111191685.7589652417136641112752.60647116

95770.400373557311606195770.40037355732200118153.961814736150691124346.38663011700

000011205192461.4282427804139001114700.031465832

96331.522829649111674196331.52282964912216118285.9906279341151721125196.32211507900

000011306193294.8601260933143091118075.018003208

97181.458314611711777197181.45831461172283118838.861283201153671126805.42327593100

000011565195432.0765397372144911119576.845753336

98097.408206173411888198097.40820617342302118995.6454988738154321127341.79032954800

000011612195819.9111785065150631124296.875825167

98262.44422267111908198262.4442226712314119094.6671087723154334127350.04213037300

000011650196133.479609852152821126104.020205816

98683.286064739911959198683.28606473992348119375.2283368182162051133720.4323671800

000011851197792.0915756529158821131055.100700744

98906.084687011711986198906.08468701172352119408.2355401178169731140057.81540068800

000011900198196.429816072166311137235.699518579

100086.092204969121291100086.0922049692379119631.0341623895177031146081.63000285100

000011937198501.7464465925177591146543.730849044

100160.358412393121381100160.3584123932402119820.8255813618182651150719.14206643300

000012070199599.2359563016190471157172.050311489

100911.272287457122291100911.2722874572426120018.8688011589187251154514.97044587800

0000121601100341.898030541208851172338.860227619

101686.941564996123231101686.94156499624373620109.6386102326189411156297.35942405200

0000121741100457.423242089210191173444.601538153

102149.042411189123791102149.0424111892462120315.9336308546191101157691.91376345700

0000122101100754.488071785234511193512.981144261

102413.100037586124111102413.1000375862495120588.2430580756191661158154.0146096500

0000122251100878.265084158236911195493.413342232

102512.121647484124231102512.1216474842524120827.54528199711916811158170.518211300

0000123601101992.258195517242781200337.220426437

205073.754099918124262102536.8770499592539120951.3222943703204621168848.34847869500

0000128471106010.885197233250961207087.193501188

103106.251306876124951103106.2513068762652121883.7757875818205751169780.80197190600

0000128981106431.727039302298771246539.05324494

103287.790925023125171103287.7909250232790123022.5243014152217351179352.89092876700345237649.03397443

000134011110582.3828542176096150302.9778284685

103329.049929147125221103329.0499291473339127552.7629542743506481624.5119267400

000134021110590.6346550426101150344.2368325929

103494.085945645125421103494.0859456453376127858.079584794900

000134471110961.9656921616160150831.0930812608

103840.66158029125841103840.661580293443128410.950240061800

000135351111688.1241647516280151821.3091802464

313452.906133892126623104484.3020446313506128930.813692029300

000135641111927.4263886726287151879.0717860205

104542.064650405126691104542.0646504053549129285.641127499100

000137941113825.3405783956313152093.6186074674

105136.194309796127411105136.1943097963551129302.144729148900

000138271114097.6500056166315152110.1222091172

105746.827570837128151105746.8275708373555129335.151932448400

000140221115706.7511664676330152233.8992214904

106291.446425279128811106291.4464252793581129549.698753895300

000142021117192.0753149466335252275.1582256148

106324.453628579128851106324.4536285793633129978.79239678900

000142751117794.4567751626343152341.1726322138

106704.036466523129311106704.0364665233661130209.842819885700

000143701118578.3778535266378152629.9856610846

107116.626507767129811107116.62650776737348730812.224280101900

000144531119263.2773219916394152762.0144742827

108082.087204278130981108082.0872042784200134657.56346449600

000145441120014.1911970556398152795.0216775822

108222.367818301131151108222.3678183014742139130.03951158100

000150101123859.5303814496425153017.820299854

108841.252880167131901108841.2528801677338160551.714452969400

000150131123884.2857839236646154841.4682821525

109460.137942033132651109460.1379420338022166195.946217187300

000150161123909.0411863986670155039.5115019496

109748.950970904133001109748.9509709048074166625.039860081100

000156731129330.4743283446710155369.5835349448

109806.713576678133071109806.7135766789647179605.122557617300

000157311129809.0787761876744155650.1447629907

109814.965377503133081109814.96537750310241184506.692247596100

000157811130221.6688174316750155699.65556794

329469.651534984133093109823.217178328154351127366.54573202300

000160101132111.3312063296787156004.9721984605

110252.310821222133611110252.310821222164151135453.31054040500

000162541134124.7706075996878156755.8860735246

114460.72924191138711114460.72924191175971145206.93911541300

000171861141815.4489763886907156995.1882974461

116375.147033283141031116375.147033283177101146139.39260862500

000173631143276.0177223916925157143.720712294

117373.614933093142241117373.614933093183071151065.7177010780

000586961157440.7855419897

122646.515660191148631122646.515660191191201157774.431771706fatalities from 50 weapons0

000505370717.574076446993157704.8431683858

125394.365334876151961125394.365334876209811173131.0331068070

0006997157737.8503716853

125955.487790968152641125955.487790968215311177669.5235604910

0007167159140.6565119149

127028.221898203153941127028.221898203222741183800.6115733770

0007187159305.6925284125

127952.423590589155061127952.423590589223141184130.6836063720

0007199159404.7141383111

130056.632800934157611130056.632800934228011188149.3106080890

0007226159627.5127605829

131261.395721366159071131261.395721366241211199041.687696930

0007322160419.6856397713

1185808.53393773159679131756.503770859241262199082.9467010550

0007404161096.3333074115

132532.173048398160611132532.173048398281661232420.222033570

0007432161327.3837305081

132870.496882218161021132870.496882218294981243411.620732310

0007586162598.1610575397

134900.439885138163481134900.439885138418241345123.3176997810

007614162829.2114806363

135040.720499161163651135040.720499161238243420239.413099560

00244389627.966803167638163027.2547004334

137631.785958173166791137631.785958173fatalities from 50 weapons0

007925165395.521537174

138754.030870357168151138754.0308703570

008237167970.0833945365

138902.563285205168331138902.563285205

00

142038.247598659172131142038.24759865916

00

287443.22993387174172143721.614966935

00

145784.565173155176671145784.565173155

00

146015.615596252176951146015.615596252

00

147344.155529057178561147344.155529057

00

164128.318406863198901164128.318406863

00

164821.469676153199741164821.469676153

00

167412.535135165202881167412.535135165

00

167503.304944239202991167503.304944239

00

167585.822952488203091167585.822952488

00

168320.233225902203981168320.233225902

00

168510.024644874204211168510.024644874

00

169079.398901791204901169079.398901791

00

677406.833316049205234169351.708329012

00

172066.550800398208521172066.550800398

00

172809.212874637209421172809.212874637

00

177199.170913473214741177199.170913473

00

185508.734344127224811185508.734344127

00

188339.102027061228241188339.102027061

00

192233.952016404232961192233.952016404

00

204223.818614955247491204223.818614955

00

208357.97082822252501208357.97082822

00

1476469.9661933255617210924.280884758

00

211196.590311979255941211196.590311979

00

211551.417747449256371211551.417747449

00

212228.065415089257191212228.065415089

00

3897639.098022172624118216535.505445676

00

251803.702171213305151251803.702171213

00

261194.251509927316531261194.251509927

00

267556.389945909324241267556.389945909

00

279521.501141985338741279521.501141985

00

280280.666817874339661280280.666817874

00

280618.990651694340071280618.990651694

00

335856.545373441407011335856.545373441

00

401433.606528762486481401433.606528762

00

451431.26772671547071451431.26772671

00

2741413.27004163553706456902.211673605

154505657706.95496495

fatalities from 50 weaponsNumber of bombs on indiaeventual fatalities

12888867.29121850

Deaths in ww11Number of weapons to produce ww11 deathscasualties for 50 weapons

India21860002284511.058368035

Japan21720002248813.767999618

China175000006481624.5119267450

us413000453626.2467461282

pakistan2325043.9040198411

Fires

Area burned hiroshima km2number of weapons

1350650

fuel loading 40g/cm2fuel terragramsfraction of fuel burnedfuel burnedfraction of fuel as smokesoot emitted Tgsoot not wased out facotr 0.8 in Tgsurface area NH m2soot in g/m2absorption cross section m2/gabsorption optical depthsingle scatter albedoextinction optical depth

402600.51300.056.552000000000002.50E+142.08E-0271.46E-010.40.2426666667

Gases emitted

fuel burned,T gco 1o0g/1000g,TgNO from explosionsfrom fire

130130.003750.26

radiation glasstone and dolan

rate rad/hrdistance kmmax widthgrnd 0 widthtravel time hrs48 hr unsheltered dose

30005.14143860910.12484525990.20009040390.214226608713513.4578546298

10009.80.450.450.413700

30024.51.261.21810

10048.53.11.92.02204

100% fatalities length100% with rainzero with rain

7.869700711722.091334369411.474651330332.2109275303

width

0.35497779320.95839201051.4109749374

fire loading

area of San Jose affectedkm^2

370

fuel affected Tg

1.5

loading g/cm^2

0.4054054054

Mf g/personpeople/km2fuel load g/cm2Bush linear

7000.771.4356

10001.11.7056

1.10E+0720002.22.6056

4.00E+034.44.4056

60006.66.2056

80008.88.0056

10000119.8056

200002218.8056

400004436.8056

600006654.8056

800008872.8056

San Jose simonett

fuel garea cm21980 popfuel loadpopden

4.60E+124.60E+12629,2461.30E+001.37E+03

SmallBush et fuel loaidng for region of the us

fuel /m2 residential assuming 10% area is occupied by housesmean area of house m2houses /km2pop den 4 per housedensityfuel loax

1.316062525001460.99290780142.072000.22

9001.614000.44

Peczkis dresden g/cm2796.61016949151.46000.66

221066.32653061221.948000.88

734.74801061011.5210001.1

Lucas Hamburg1443.5797665372.1312001.32

Pop density,km^-2fuel loading lbs/ft2ostpfuel loading g/cm2Average fuel loading14001.54

200003215.6038751346mass emittedfuel load16001.76

India3.6735.2884615385

Ebert wood in Hamburg kg4e7 cm2=1acre to get fuel oadJapan1.9218.4615384615

129235232.3088Pakistan2.0519.7115384615

Scope 28

47

Sheet1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Sheet2

0.89276151790.97648613220.91482780910.93043116980.98550578110.9910938448

0.79702466250.80722521520.85445734970.89064031980.87686469870.9226415546

0.5774233580.55163523510.69588331720.84176740050.69419168370.7995939039

0.30168577210.31162903650.47311755450.73196223870.48898961620.6450957338

0.08565842920.14552998180.23427475990.50282807580.30647374650.4845036989

0.03698532280.0561818030.13190024680.35254578520.17090718770.3387569827

0.00915707910.01792947240.04625498940.19762072470.08480096390.2204944421

0.00637795780.00473007460.02519293320.13795522670.03743817410.133605787

0.00170031880.00103156620.01530286930.09458023380.01470624990.0753652465

0.00454745490.00018597510.00982837030.03271233680.00513999420.0395763019

Table 7.9 Ishikawa and Swain, 1981

normal distribution

Casualties (major)

Casualties minor

normal 2

normal 3

Radius, km

Probability

Probability of death or injury following Hiroshima blast

Sheet3

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

Hiroshima populaotn density

normal

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

ln density of Hiroshima

675.99

180.8817561114

78.7333573364

34.2706842897

14.9171817565

9.1701675431

6.4930804904

3.9915472601

ARea with 48 hour 450 rad dose

time, hrs

area, km2

Area with 48 hour 450 rad dose

13513.4578546298

3700

810

204

48 hours unsheltered dose

km downwind

dose

y = 266025x-1.8384R2 = 0.9984

0.2000904039

0.45

1.2

1.9

width versusdose

dose, rads

cross wind width, km

fuel loading

San jose (Simonett)

Hamburg OSTP

Hamburg Ebert

Hamburg Scope

Bush

bush linear fit

population density, km-2

fuel loading

Bush et al fuel load

Our eq.

Simonett

MBD02301B88.xls

MBD036D9CAF.xls

Soot Generation from 50, 15 kt Weapons

Chart13

1.41

2.22

5.22

2.63

1.05

3.67

2.4

0.85

1.92

2.9

1.89

0.91

1.2

Soot, Tg

Soot, Tg

Sheet1

Argentina223,000156,0007001.00318.57142857144,337,0002,394,000810,0003,204,0001.4113

Brazil385,000266,00011.003850007,962,0004,370,0001,834,0006,204,0002.2221

China760,000592,0003,320,0006.000.228915662716,716,0009,306,0002,554,00011,860,0005.2250

Egypt612,000601,00085001.00727,834,0004,384,0001,656,0006,040,0002.6325

France269,000198,000592,0003.000.45439189193,509,0001,879,000923,0002,802,0001.0510

India571,000469,0003,0001.00190.333333333312,424,0006,494,0002,539,0009,033,0003.6735

Iran287,000274,000450,0002.000.63777777787,431,0004,231,0001,371,0005,602,0002.423

Israel225,000161,0002,8001.0080.35714285712,594,0001,538,000323,0001,861,0000.858

Japan223,000206,0002,133,00014.000.10454758565,890,0003,023,0001,766,0004,789,0001.9219

Pakistan503,000487,0008,0001.0062.8759,171,0005,112,0001,525,0006,637,0002.928

Russia299,000237,00017,700,00050.000.01689265546,273,0003,543,0001,299,0004,842,0001.8918

U.K.126,000111,000453,0005.000.27814569542,891,0001,565,000792,0002,357,0000.919

U.S.206,000190,000405,0003.000.50864197534,056,0002,203,000872,0003,075,0001.212

airburstairburst 2nd citynumber to create previous50 weapon airburst50 weapon ground burst

fatalities in prevous wars

Sheet1

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

Previous conflicts

Airburst Fatalities

Densest location

2nd Densest location

Fatalities, Highest Density Location

Fatalities, Second Highest Density Location

Falities from Previous Conflicts

Sheet2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Fraction of previous wars from one weapon

Fataliities from One Airburst/ Fatalities in Previous Wars

Sheet3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Number of Explosions

Number of Explosions to Equal Fatalities in Previous Wars

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

50 airburst fatalities

Fatalities

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

Fatalities

airburstgroundburstradiationgroundburst+radiation

Airburst

ground burst

radiation

ground+radiation

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Soot, Tg

Soot, Tg

Global ozone loss

SummaryThe number of nuclear states is growing40 countries have enough fissionable materials for 1-104 weapons.Modern nuclear weapons are small and lightweight. One weapon detonated by a terrorist could cause a million casualties.50 nuclear explosions of 15 kt yield can cause as many fatalities as once projected for a full scale counterforce war between the superpowers.Large amounts of smoke can be generated from a regional war that could trigger global climate change and ozone loss affecting non-combatant countries.

ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS AND SOCIETAL CONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL SCALE NUCLEAR CONFLICTSAND ACTS OF INDIVIDUAL NUCLEAR TERRORISM Owen B. Toon, Richard P. Turco, Alan Robock, Charles Bardeen, Luke Oman, Georgiy L. StenchikovAtmos. Chem. Phys. . 7, 2003-2012, 2007

andBased on the Papers:CLIMATIC CONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL SCALE NUCLEAR CONFLICTS Alan Robock, Luke Oman, Georgiy L. Stenchikov, Owen B. Toon, Charles Bardeen, Richard P. Turco Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7, 1973-2002, 2007

End of talk the following are spare slides

1-100 weapons100-1000 weapons>1000 weaponsD. Albright, F. Berkhout, W. Walker, Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium, 1996 (Oxford, 1997) http://www.isis-online.org40 countries have the fissile material to build at least one bomb

Radiation Fatalities for Various Countries from 50 weapons with yield of 15 kt

Chart11

433700023940008100003204000

7962000437000018340006204000

167160009306000255400011860000

7834000438400016560006040000

350900018790009230002802000

12424000649400025390009033000

7431000423100013710005602000

259400015380003230001861000

5890000302300017660004789000

9171000511200015250006637000

6273000354300012990004842000

289100015650007920002357000

405600022030008720003075000

Fatalities

airburstgroundburstradiationgroundburst+radiation

Airburst

ground burst

radiation

ground+radiation

Sheet1

Argentina223,000156,0007001.00318.57142857144,337,0002,394,000810,0003,204,000

Brazil385,000266,00011.003850007,962,0004,370,0001,834,0006,204,000

China760,000592,0003,320,0006.000.228915662716,716,0009,306,0002,554,00011,860,000

Egypt612,000601,00085001.00727,834,0004,384,0001,656,0006,040,000

France269,000198,000592,0003.000.45439189193,509,0001,879,000923,0002,802,000

India571,000469,0003,0001.00190.333333333312,424,0006,494,0002,539,0009,033,000

Iran287,000274,000450,0002.000.63777777787,431,0004,231,0001,371,0005,602,000

Israel225,000161,0002,8001.0080.35714285712,594,0001,538,000323,0001,861,000

Japan223,000206,0002,133,00014.000.10454758565,890,0003,023,0001,766,0004,789,000

Pakistan503,000487,0008,0001.0062.8759,171,0005,112,0001,525,0006,637,000

Russia299,000237,00017,700,00050.000.01689265546,273,0003,543,0001,299,0004,842,000

U.K.126,000111,000453,0005.000.27814569542,891,0001,565,000792,0002,357,000

U.S.206,000190,000405,0003.000.50864197534,056,0002,203,000872,0003,075,000

airburstairburst 2nd citynumber to create previous50 weapon airburst50 weapon ground burst

fatalities in prevous wars

Sheet1

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

Previous conflicts

Airburst Fatalities

Densest location

2nd Densest location

Fatalities, Highest Density Location

Fatalities, Second Highest Density Location

Falities from Previous Conflicts

Sheet2

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Fraction of previous wars from one weapon

Fataliities from One Airburst/ Fatalities in Previous Wars

Sheet3

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Number of Explosions

Number of Explosions to Equal Fatalities in Previous Wars

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

50 airburst fatalities

Fatalities

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

0000

Fatalities

airburstgroundburstradiationgroundburst+radiation

Airburst

ground burst

radiation

ground+radiation

This slide shows the total number of warheads as a function of time, based on the data of Norris. Note that the figure also has the number of deployed weapons. Russia has many weapons that are not deployed, as does the U.S. Current agreements call for deployed warheads to be about 4000 in 2012. However total warheads will remain about 20000 since they do not need to be destroyed.

These data are from David Albright, although Sidney Drells book has a similar graph. The ? indicates we are not sure when some of the states developed weapons. Otherwise the date marks the first nuclear test. South Africa destroyed its weapons. Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan inherited weapons from the Soviet Union, and returned them to Russia.The estimated number of weapons is given followed by the 90% uncertainty values. These are based on Albrights estimates of Pu, and HEU and an assumed mass needed per weapon. The dates are when nuclear tests occurred. The North Korean arsenal is very uncertain. De Facto means a state that acquired weapons outside of the non-proliferation treaty.

We used data from Hiroshima on casualties and fatalities as a function of distance from ground zero to estimate fatalities in a future conflict with 15 kton weapons. Knowing the chance of fatality as a function of distance we used a population data base to estimate fatalities for a number of countries. In each case the assumed the most populated areas were attacked. Usually these were in megacities.

Fatality and casualty values can be found in our papers. Here we express the fatalities from one explosion relative to those in previous wars. The bars above 1 indicate that India, Pakistan, Egypt, Israel and so forth would suffer about 100 times as many fatalities from one explosion as in previous wars they have fought. Bars below 1 indicate several weapons are needed to equal fatalities in previous wars. For example 3 weapons exploded in the U.S. would cause fatalities greater that US losses in WW-II.

The table presents fatalities from various studies in the 1980s for the use of the major arsenals. The last two rows show that if the U.S. were attacked with 50 weapons of 15 kt yield each that 4 million would die, roughly what was estimated for a counterforce war with the Soviet Union. A war between India and Pakistan (100 weapons) would kill more than 20 million, half of all WW-II losses.

A fire storm occurred in Hiroshima. The energy release in the fire was more than 1000 times that in the nuclear explosion. Black rain fell after the blast.In order to estimate the amount of soot released in various places, we used data to find the amount of fuel per person. Then we could use the land use data base to find the amount of fuel burned in the equivalent area that was burned at Hiroshima.We estimate that from 1-5 Tg of elemental carbon would be released, and emplaced in the upper troposphere, for an attack on various countries. 1Tg is a million metric tons.Data show that smoke from intense fires rises into the stratosphere. There it absorbs sunlight, heating the stratosphere and cooling the ground. Robock has found the smoke will rise to high altitude in the stratosphere due to the solar heating. We find this also with the National Center for Atmospheric Research climate model. This is important because it doesnt rain in the stratosphere so the soot can remain there many years. The slide shows temperature increase of 50K out to 3 years.

The increased temperatures, and changes in dynamics alter stratospheric ozone. The normal ozone (blue) includes the ozone hole marked by the value indicated by the green line. The value 3 years after the nuclear war is shown in orange, and is more than 50% less than normal at northern midlatitudes.

Next slide shows the countries which have enough Pu, of HEU to make weapons if they wished.

We also computed the fatalities from blast and thermal radiation in ground bursts, and from radioactivity in ground bursts. These are compared with airburst fatalities here.