the vertical shift - avoiding the malthusian catastrophe - gordon graff

THE VERTICAL SHIFT:AVOIDING THE MALTHUSIAN CATASTROPHE

BY GORDON GRAFF

“The power of population is so superior to the power of the earth to produce subsistence for man, that premature death must in some shape or other visit the human race.”_____________________________

Thomas Malthus, 1789

THE VERTICAL SHIFT:AVOIDING THE MALTHUSIAN CATASTROPHE

BY GORDON GRAFF

Population Pressures

• As Malthus identified, the human population has a linear relationship with land

• Present estimates indicated at least 80% of potentially arable land is already being used for agricultural purposes.

• To feed the additional 2.5 billion people expected by 2050, 109 hectares (1,000,000,000 ha) of land will be required to feed them with conventional farming practices

• To get a scale of this area requirement, it is about approximately the size of Brazil

• This is simply not available

Population Pressures

Linear Consumption of Land

Dust Bowl – 1930s USA

William B. Greeley, The Relation of Geography to Timber Supply, Economic Geo.

1925

DUST BOWL – 1930s US MID-WEST

Linear Consumption of land

About ½ of the mature tropical forest cover of the earth has been destroyed, somewhere between 750-800 million hectares


AFGHANISTAN70% loss

Between 1990 and 2005 Afghanistan lost 33.8% of its woodland habitat.In total, 70% of its forests have been destroyed.

Nigeria presently has the highest rate of deforestation of primary forests, according to the UN. Between 1990 and 2005 the country lost 35.7% of its forest cover.All together, 79% of Nigeria’s primary forests have been destroyed.

Reasons: Logging, Subsistence Agriculture, Collection of Firewood


NIGERIA79% loss


MADAGASCAR94% loss

Madagascar’s rampant deforestation has resulted in extensive desertification, water resourcedegradation, and soil loss. Approximately 94% of its biologically diverse lands have beendestroyed, nearly all of which has occurred since claiming independence from France in 1958.This is disheartening when considering 5% of the earths plant and animal species are locatedin Madagascar, most of which are endemic.

Linear consumption of land

PHILIPPINES+90% loss

At one time 95% of the land area of the Philippine archipelago was covered by tropical rainforestToday, over 90% of this diverse ecosystem has been destroyedThe Philippines is ranked as having the most severely endangered mammal and bird faunas in the world

Brazil

• Since 1970, 600,000 square kilometers of Amazonian Rainforest have been destroyed within Brazil for agriculture uses. That is about the size of Manitoba, or, two and half times the size of the United Kingdom. This is approximately 40% of its size of1950

• The soil of the Amazon is not ideal for crop cultivation, and tends to only stay fertile for a limited time. Farmers are constantly clearing more land to meet production needs

• Unless significant steps are taken to limit deforestation in this area, it is projected that by 2030 only 10% of this vital natural resource will remain

Tierras Bajas Project – BOLIVIA

• Located within the topical rainforest just east of Santa Cruz

• Communities were established on a 5 km x 5 km grid for Soybean cultivation

Agriculture’s Land Consumption

26%Forrest &Savannah

38%Agriculture

• Approximately 38% of the Earth’s land is being used for human agriculture. When considering all forests/wooded areas/savannahs only cover 26%, and urban space a tiny 3.5%, the scale of human agriculture comes into view.

Food Security

$145 barrelJuly 2008

$70 barrelJuly 2006

Environmental Variability

Food – Oil Connection

Haiti April 2008

Climate ChangePest DamageDrought

Food Security

•Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid…• Massive starvation

INITIATIVES FOR THE 21st CENTURY

•Dramatically Improve Land Efficiency to avoid…• Massive starvation• Irreversible ecological catastrophe



• Realize a Fossil-Fuel free form of agriculture




• Improve Food Security




• Improve Food Security

• Reduce negative ecological impact of agriculture (methane, nitrous oxide emissions)


SkyFarm

SkyFarm

• 59 Floors

• 238 m (714 ft)

• 3,800,000 ft2 floor area

• 11,000,000 ft2 growing area

• Feeds over 40,000 people year round

• Fossil-fuel free agriculture

• Redefining ‘local’ agriculture

SkyFarm

SkyFarm

PHOTOVOLTAICS

GREEN WALL (SILAGE)

SkyFarm

2,006,000 lbs of Lettuce

1,822,000 lbs of Cucumber

2,990,000 lbs of Eggplant

3,028,000 lbs of Strawberries

2,736,000 lbs of Peppers

4,672,000 lbs of Carrots

6,570,000 lbs of Spinach

6,570,000 lbs of Soybeans

5,292,000 lbs of Green Beans

5,474,000 lbs of Tomatoes

747,000 lbs of Poultry meat

455,000 dzn Eggs

5,997,000 lbs of Wheat

7,231,000 lbs of Potatoes

242,000 lbs of Tilapia (fish) meat

SkyFarm YEARLY PRODUCTION

54,388,000 lbs of Vegetable Produce

989,000 lbs of Animal Meat

455,000 lbs of Eggs

x2.8 SURFACE AREA

Space Efficiency – Surface Area

63 metres(surface area)

182 metres(growing area)

=

EXAMPLE : Strawberry Production

x10

H

AR

VE

STS

Space Efficiency – Conditioned Space = Multiple HarvestsExample: Strawberry Production

1 ACRE X 2.8 (VERTICAL ORIENT.) X 10 HARVESTS

= 28 ACRES

• Temperature and lighting control enables the optimal growing conditions for each plant type to be maintained indefinitely

Space Efficiency – Vertical Stacking

James Wines – HIGHRISE OF HOMES

SkyFarm

18.18 acres of Lettuce

12.45 acres of Cucumber

48.93 acres of Eggplant

332.11 acres of Strawberries

22,20 acres of Peppers

18.70 acres of Carrots

389.64 acres of Spinach

340.02 acres of Soybeans

49.10 acres of Green Beans

14.43 acres of Tomatoes

n/a acres of Poultry meat

n/a acres Eggs

55.10 acres of Wheat

67.95 acres of Potatoes

n/a acres of Tilapia (fish) meat

SkyFarm PRODUCE EQUAL TO…

1369.62 acre

or 547.85 hectares

…of conventional farming

SkyFarm

1.34 hectares

SkyFarm

1.34 hectares

230 hectares

SkyFarm

230 hectares

+ 230 hectares

= only 460 hectares!

SkyFarm

SkyFarm CALCULATIONS

SkyFarm


40,000

ANAEROBIC DIGESTERLIVING MACHINETM

SkyFarm

WASTE H20

CLEAN H20 POWER

SkyFarm BUILDING SYSTEM DIAGRAM

SILAGE

AGRI-WASTE

SkyFarm


Data courtesy of Dr. Dickson DespommierColumbia University

SkyFarm

POWER

SkyFarm URBAN SYSTEM DIAGRAM

PRE-FILTERSEWAGE

BIO-WASTE / COMPOSTABLES

ORGANIC WASTE

WASTE WATER

POWER TO GRID

WATER TO CITY

WATER

GROWHousing Moss Park (Toronto)

GROWHousing

Moss Park

• The tightly packed tenement houses that characterised the neighbourhood were cleared during the urban renewal programs of the 1950s and 60s

•Over the years, the city’s social and temporary housing initiatives slowly accumulated in the neighbourhood due to the affordable land and central location

•The building site, which is on the west side of the park, is currently consumed by the Moss Park Armoury

Program

GROWHousing

• LIVING MACHINE – FILTERS FARM & RESIDENTIAL WASTE WATER

• HYDROPONIC FARM – PRODUCES ENOUGH FOOD TO SUSTAIN 1,000 PEOPLE / YR

• ANAEROBIC DIGESTER – COLLECTS FARM WASTE, COMPOSTABLES FROM RESIDENTIAL UNITS AND SOLID WASTE FROM WASTE WATER TO PRODUCE POWER (ALSO CAN PROCESS BIO-WASTES FROM NEIGHBORHOOD)

LIVING MACHINE

HYDROPONIC FARM

ANAEROBIC DIGESTER

GROWHousing

Building System

Community Gardens

• CREATES 5,300 m2 OF COMMUNITY ACCESS GARDENS

• NUTRIENT-RICH COMPOST AND NATURAL FERTILIZERS GENERATED ON SITE (FROM ANAEROBIC DIGESTER)

• INTRODUCES SOCIAL ACTIVITY, AS WELL AS A GREATER DEGREE OF SELF- SUFFICIENCY FOR LOW-INCOME EARNERS

GROWHousing

GROWHousing

Cyclical Resource Flows

GROWHousing

Dongtan – ChinaARUP

Masdar – United Arab EmiratesSir NORMAN FOSTER

RAK Gateway – United Arab EmiratesOMA – REM KOOLHAAS

the vertical shift - avoiding the malthusian catastrophe - gordon graff

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