Consequences of Inaction• Enabling an inept and brutal regime? “It looks like the end of the world here! Everything is destroyed, we have no drinking water and nothing to eat. Tens of thousands must be dead. Hundreds of thousands are homeless.” (A Burmese dissident four days after the cyclone)

• Preventable death and suffering: “Our biggest fear is that the aftermath could be more lethal than the storm itself,” (Caryl M. Stern, UNICEF)

Politicizing Humanitarianism

“The response to the cyclone is just the most recent example of the junta’s failure to meet its people’s basic needs.” Laura Bush, two days after the cyclone

Congressional Gold Medal to Aung San Suu Kyi for struggles against regime

• France: strong humanitarian response but with ulterior motives

• French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, explaining why France had limited its initial contribution to $310,000: “It’s not a lot, but we don’t really trust the way the Burmese ministry would use the money.”

The Applicability of the Responsibility to

Protect

Arguments against Responsibility to Protect

• 2005 World Summit Outcome does not include natural disaster

• Crime against humanity requires intent• Weakening of international law

Arguments for Responsibility to Protect

Burmese government neglect

and apathy =

Crime against humanity

“There is no difference between an innocent person being killed by machete or…dying in a cholera pandemic that could be avoided

by proper international responses.”

Lyoyd Axworthy, former Canadian foreign minister

“R2P Plus”

• Responsive to different kinds of human security threats (e.g. natural disasters and state neglect)

• Convergence between strict and situational interpretations of R2P

“Though the R2P norm was perhaps not applicable to Myanmar’s grossly inadequate

way of dealing with Cyclone Nargis, its invocation nevertheless played an important part in addressing the crisis more effectively,

namely as a rhetorical device” Jürgen Haacke

(partial) Successes of the International Community

Wheeler Criteria

• Supreme Humanitarian Emergency ⃝• Necessity/Last Resort ⃝/Δ• Proportionality Δ• Positive Humanitarian Outcome /⃝ Δ• Humanitarian Motives ⃝/Δ• Humanitarian Justifications ⃝• Legality / ⃝ Δ• Selectivity /⃝ Δ

Burma Today• 2010 elections– Fraud? Military-backed Union Solidarity and

Development party declared 80% popular vote– Still…major reforms:• Aung San Suu Kyi released from house arrest• Establishment of the National Human Rights

Commission• Amnesty granted to political prisoners • New labor laws allowing labor unions and

strikes• Relaxation of press censorship• Peaceful demonstrations legalized

Impact of Reforms (2011)

• Suu Kyi and NLD rejoin political process, announces intention to participate in Parliamentary elections

• November: ASEAN approves Burma for chairmanship in 2014

• December: Hillary Clinton meets with President Thein Sein and Suu Kyi

Impact of Reforms (2012)

• January: U.S. offers “hand of friendship” in return for more reforms and restores diplomatic relations

• April: NDL, led by Aung Sun Suu Kyi, wins 43 seats in Parliament (ruling party and smaller ethnic-based party won only one each)

• November: Obama visits

Meanwhile in the Rakhine State…• Dissolution of 17-year cease-fire between

Rohingya Muslims and Rakhine Buddhists• Civil War (victims mostly Muslims)– 167+ dead– ~100,000 homeless

• The NDL’s perilous position