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Connecting ephemeralandsustainable futuresinscenario design:
Theoretical issuesand lessonsfromthedefencefield
Dr Anne [email protected]
Cnam-Paris – LIRSA EA 4603
Dr Fabrice [email protected]
IAE de Poitiers – CEREGE EA 1722
Scenario 2015Warwick Business School
1. IntroductionConnecting scenarios, sustainability and ephemeralityTheoretical background
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Scenarios, foresight and…Ever moving rules (Berger, 1957, Marchais-Roubelat and Roubelat, 2015))Pushing the boundaries of plausibility (Kahn, 1966, Sardar and Sweenay, 2016)Enhancing scenario thinking to include stakeholders in scenario design (Wright and Cairns, 2011, Cairns, Wright and Fairbrother, 2016)Introducing sustainability in futures thinking (Crivits et al., 2010, Vergragt and Quist, 2011)Probing ephemeral futures (Roubelat, Brasset, McLean, Hoffmann, Kera, 2015)
2.Methodological proposalsRuling scenarios: stakeholders in motion
What?Designing scenarios from action
• ACTION RULE
• Looking forstakeholders’acts• andunsunstainable ones
Why?Framing scenarios from values
• INSTUTIONAL RULE
• Justifying stakeholders’behavior• andwhat opposesthe action
How?Organizing scenarios in action
• OPERATIONS RULE
• Uncovering theconstrains oftheaction
• Andwhat organizes theaction
What’s next?Challenging scenarios
•STEERING RULE
•Assessing scenariosustainability•Finding outephemeral distortions
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3 Lessons from a case study: Defence Strategic action-based scenariosThe context of the case: connecting geostrategic and operationsforesight
Defenceforesighttypes
Actionprocessscope Sustainability issues
Geostrategicforesight Anticipatinggeopolitical changes,newcrisesandthreats
Sustainability of newtechnologicalpowersandstakeholders,sustainabilityofthecontinuumbetweensecurityandmilitarytechnologies, durationofnewtechnologicalthreats(biotechnology,informationtechnology…)
Operationsforesight Anticipatingnewstrategicandoperationstheatres
Sustainability of newtechnologies(remotecontrolweapons,cyberwarfare,humanaugmentation…),diffusionoftechnologies amongdefenceandsecurityactors,militaryuseofnon-militarytechnologies
3. Results. Lessons from the Defence field. Questioning « shattered bricks » scenario On the sustainability of stakeholders’ acts
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Rule Stakeholders’movements Sustainability/ephemerality issues
ActionruleSuccessivelycombatingseveralmilitarypowersusingarmedforce
WhatstakeholdersareactingonRegularwarbetweencoalitionsorganisedaroundshatteredBRICcountriesWhatstakeholdersarenotactingon–Unsunstainable actsAvoidingstrikes(ephemeralacts)oneconomiccapacitiesandinfrastructures,nuclearfacilities,naturalareasandagriculturalland
LevelofusebymostofshatteredBRICSofnuclearandtechnologicalcapabilities(namelydrones,combatrobots,satellites,cybertechnologies)
InstitutionalruleDesignatingoneorseveralenemiesinresponsetomilitaryactions
WhatopposestheactionShatteredBRICsuseconventionalcapabilities,aswellasnucleardetterrenceWhatjustifiestheactionOneoftheshatterednationsfromtheBRICsrequeststheassistanceagainstoneorseveralofitsneighbours
Economicandenvironmentalconsequencesoftheuseofnuclearandconventionalweapons
3. Results. Lessons from the Defence fieldManaging in time stakeholders’ capabilities
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Rule Stakeholders’movements Sustainability/ephemerality issues
OperationsruleManagingthevariabilityofthealliancesonscatteredtheatres
Constraints:VaryingconflictscalesdependingonthebelligerentnationsonvariabletheatresIntermittentcombatsoverseveralyearsHighintensitycombatswith substantial losses,bothhumanandmaterialOrganization:Regenerationbynewalliances,reorganizationorbymomentarilyexitingtheconflict
RegenerationofcapabilitiesEphemeral exitoftheconflicts
3. Results. Lessons from the Defence fieldTowards a moving end-state
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Rule Stakeholders’movements Sustainability/ephemerality issues
Steering ruleDesigning changing military end states
Transfer: reconstitution of a BRIC, extension of the conflict, durable defeat in one of the theatres, refusal to designate the enemyStalemate: the scenarios lasts from several years: constant combatOscillation: The conflicts cease for several years then start again with the same actors: successive combat becomes alternative combatPhase lag: increased variability of the alliances or incapacity to disengage theatres in time either through a lack of capacities or because the enemy's capacities have been strengthened
Unsunstainablestakeholder behavior
Long-duration use of capabilities
Short-term regeneration of capabilities
Unaccepted decrease of capabilities by some stakeholders
4. Discussion. Epistemological and methodological consequencesTracking sustainability, uncovering ephemerality
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Designing iterative sustainable scenariosChallenging paradigm shifts and paradigm dead-endsNavigating across scenariosFuturizing parallel scenarios
Designing pop-up scenariosActing unacceptable and unlikely acts, behaviors or constraintsPlaying with gaps, rhythms, paces beyond scenario plausibility
Questioning scenario sustainability and ephemeralityDesigning scenarios from action: crisis management scenarios,
emergency scenarios, strategic action scenariosDesigning experience scenarios from stakeholders’ acts: user
scenarios, normative scenarios
5. Conclusion and further researchA fine moving disregard…Ariadne’s thread beyond sustainable endstates
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Thinking sustainability and ephemerality in moving scenariosDesigning iterative sustainable and ephemeral scenariosExperiencing ephemeral stakeholders’ transformationsExploring interstitial spaces and actionsAssessing ephemeral dominance in scenario design
6. References
Selected references
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CairnsG.,WrightG.,Fairbrother P.(2016),“Promotingarticulatedactionfromdiversestakeholdersinresponsetopublicpolicyscenarios:Acaseanalysisoftheuseof‘scenarioimprovisation’method”,TechnologicalForecastingandSocialChange,vol.103,p.97-108.
Crivits M.,Paredis E.,BoulangerP.-M.,Mutombo E.,Bauler T.,Lefin A.-L.(2010),Scenariosbasedonsustainabilitydiscourses:Constructingalternativeconsumptionandconsumerperspectives,Futures,vol.42,p.1187-1199.
KahnH.(1966),“Thealternativeworldfuturesapproach”,HudsonInstitute,Croton-on-Hudson.PartlyreprintedinP.D.Aligica,K.R.Weinstein,TheessentialHermanKahn.Indefense ofthinking,LexingtonBooks,Laxham,2009,p.181-197.
Marchais-RoubelatA.,Roubelat(2015),“Designingamovingstrategicforesightapproach”,Foresight,vol.17.,issue6,p.545-555.
RoubelatF.,Brassett J.,McAllumM.,HoffmannJ.,Kera D.(2015),“Probingephemeralfutures:Scenariosasfashiondesign”,Futures,vol. 74,pp.27-36.
Sardar Z.,Sweenay J.-A.(2016),“Thethreetomorrowsofpostnormal times”,Futures,vol.75,p.1-13.
Vergragt P.J,QuistJ.(2011),“Backcasting forsustainability:Introductiontothespecialissue”,TechnologicalForecastingandSocialChange,vol.78,p.747-755.
WrightG.,G.Cairns(2011),Scenariothinking:practicalapproachestothefutures,PalgraveMacmillan,NewYork.