conjoint analysis - part 2/3
DESCRIPTION
Conjoint Analysis - Estimation Step-by-step demonstration of rating-based conjoint estimation.TRANSCRIPT
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Class Outline
• Conjoint Demonstration
• Conjoint Analysis using Excel
• Needs-Based Market Segmentation
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Conjoint Demonstration
http://www.dobney.com/Conjoint/CnjtDemo.htm
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More examples
• 1. Rank-based conjoint– http://www.sawtoothsoftware.com/products/ssiweb/ssiwebsamples
• 2. ACA Choice Based conjoint– http://www.sawtoothsoftware.com/products/ssiweb/ssiwebsamples
• 3. Pair-wise “choices”– http://www.dobney.com/Conjoint/CnjtDemo.htm
C o n j o i n t D e m o s
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Conjoint Analysis using Excel
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Group Exercise – Rating Based Conjoint
Brand Memory Price Rating
Apple 20 150 10
Apple 10 150 8
Apple 20 200 6
Samsung 20 150 7
Apple 10 200 4
Samsung 10 150 5
Samsung 20 200 3
Samsung 10 200 1
• 10=Most Preferred; 1=Least Preferred
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Group Exercise #1 - WTP• $50 = ( 4 ) units• Apple > Samsung
• 20GB > 10GB
• Most important attribute: ( Price )• Least important attribute: ( Memory )
( 3 ) units = $( 37.5 )
( 2 ) units = $( 25 )
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Brand Camera Price Rating
Samsung Yes 150 10
Samsung Yes 200 6
Samsung No 150 7
Samsung No 200 3
LG Yes 150 8
LG Yes 200 4
LG No 150 5
LG No 200 1
• 10=Most Preferred; 1=Least Preferred
Group Exercise #2 - WTP
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• $50 = ( ) Rating• Brand: ( ) > ( )
• Camera: ( )> ( )
• Most important attribute: ( )• Least important attribute: ( )
( ) Util. = $( )
( ) Util. = $( )
Group Exercise #2 - Question
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• $50 = ( 4 ) Rating• Brand: (Samsung) > (LG)
• Camera: ( Yes )> ( No )
• Most important attribute: (Price)• Least important attribute: (Brand)
( 2 ) Util. = $( 25 )
( 3 ) Util. = $(37.5)
Group Exercise #2 - Solution
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Worth of Smartphone
Memory
Brand
Other factors
Price
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Respondent1’s Rating Brand Memory Price10 Apple 20 1508 Apple 10 1506 Apple 20 2007 Samsung 20 1504 Apple 10 2005 Samsung 10 1503 Samsung 20 2001 Samsung 10 200
Dependent Variable
Discrete Independent
Variables
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• DumApple = 1, Brand=Apple= 0, otherwise
• DumM20 = 1, Memory = 20 = 0, otherwise
• DumP150 = 1, Price = 150 = 0, otherwise
Brand DumApple Memory DumM20 Price DumP150 Apple 1 20 1 150 1Apple 1 10 0 150 1Apple 1 20 1 200 0
Samsung 0 20 1 150 1Apple 1 10 0 200 0
Samsung 0 10 0 150 1Samsung 0 20 1 200 0Samsung 0 10 0 200 0
Baseline category: Samsung
Baseline category: 10 GB
Baseline category: $200
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Rating = 1 + 3 * DumApple + 2 * DumM20 + 4 * DumP150
Coeff Standard Error t Stat P-value L95% U95%Intercept 1 1.677E-16 5.964E+15 4.744E-63 1 1DumApple 3 1.677E-16 1.789E+16 5.857E-65 3 3DumM20 2 1.677E-16 1.193E+16 2.965E-64 2 2DumP150 4 1.677E-16 2.385E+16 1.853E-65 4 4
Respondent1’s Rating Brand Memory Price10 Apple 20 1508 Apple 10 1506 Apple 20 2007 Samsung 20 1504 Apple 10 2005 Samsung 10 1503 Samsung 20 2001 Samsung 10 200
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Estimating Regression Coefficients Using “linest” function
1. Select 4 cells
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Estimating Regression Coefficients Using “linest” function
2. =transpose((linest(B3:B10,C3:E10,1,0))
3. Ctrl + Shift + Enter (array formula)
Dependent Variable
Independent Variable
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Estimating Regression Coefficients Using “linest” function
InterceptDumAppleDumM20DumP150
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Group Exercise #3 - Estimation• Download the excel file: “Conjoint1.xlsx”
• Q1. Based on Brand, Memory, Price descriptions, finish dummy coding on “Sheet1.”
• Q2. On “Sheet2”, estimate partworths of respondent 1 and respondent 2.
• Q3. Make partworth tables for respondent 1 and 2.
• Q4. Describe how these two individuals are different in their preference.
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Group Exercise #3 - Solution• Q1. Refer to the coding in “Sheet2”
• Q2. Partworth estimation Variable Respondent 1
DumP150 3.75
DumM20 0.75
DumApple 3.25
Intercept 0.00
Variable Respondent 1
DumP150 2.00
DumM20 2.00
DumApple 2.00
Intercept 0.00
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Group Exercise #3 - Solution• Q3. Partworth tables
Respondent 1)
Respondent 2)
• Q4)• Respondent 1: Price-sensitive, brand-loyal, does not value memory• Respondent 2: equally values three attributes; Less brand loyal than
respondent 1, Values memory more than respondent 1
BrandApple 3.25Samsung 0.0
Memory
10 GB 0.0
20 GB 0.75
Price
$200 0.0
$150 3.75
BrandApple 2.00Samsung 0.0
Memory
10 GB 0.0
20 GB 2.00
Price
$200 0.0
$150 2.00
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• From regression analysis of rating-based conjoint, we get a “partworth” for each level of each attribute:
• Q1) Calculate utility of the following profile.
User interfaceTouch screen 9.2Keyboard 0.0
Brand
Apple 59.5
Blackberry 20.5
Samsung 30.5
Motorola 0.0
Price
CAD199 40.1
CAD299 30.1
CAD399 20.1
CAD499 0.0
Group Exercise #4: Partworth Table Interpretation
User interface Brand Price Utility
Profile A Touch screen Blackberry CAD299 ?
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• From regression analysis of rating-based conjoint, we get a “partworth” for each level of each attribute:
• Q1) Calculate utility of the following profile.
User interfaceTouch screen 9.2Keyboard 0.0
Brand
Apple 59.5
Blackberry 20.5
Samsung 30.5
Motorola 0.0
Price
CAD199 40.1
CAD299 30.1
CAD399 20.1
CAD499 0.0
Group Exercise #4: Partworth Table Interpretation
User interface Brand Price Utility
Profile A Touch screen Blackberry CAD299 ?
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• “Utility” is a measure of preference. Higher the utility, greater the likelihood of purchase.
• Given a product “profile” described in terms of the chosen attributes and attribute levels, we can compute its utility simply by adding up the partworths for the various elements of the profile
• Solution
– Utility of Profile A = 9.2 + 20.5 + 30.1 = 59.8 utils
User interface Brand Price Utility
Profile A Touch screen Blackberry CAD299 ?
Group Exercise #4 – Q1 Solution
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• Q2) Suppose you are given the following three profiles. Given the three alternatives, which product is the consumer most likely to choose?
User interface Brand Price Utility
Profile C Touch screen Blackberry CAD299Profile D Keyboard Apple CAD399Profile E Touch screen Samsung CAD199
Group Exercise #4: Q2 Choice Prediction
• From regression analysis of rating-based conjoint, we get a “partworth” for each level of each attribute:
User interfaceTouch screen 9.2Keyboard 0.0
Brand
Apple 59.5
Blackberry 20.5
Samsung 30.5
Motorola 0.0
Price
CAD199 40.1
CAD299 30.1
CAD399 20.1
CAD499 0.0
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• Suppose you are given the following three profiles. Given the three alternatives, which product is the consumer most likely to choose?
• Profile E has the highest utility and so is the most likely to be chosen. Profile D is the next most likely and Profile C is the least likely.
User interface Brand Price Utility
Profile C Touch screen Blackberry CAD299 59.8Profile D Keyboard Apple CAD399 79.6Profile E Touch screen Samsung CAD199 79.8
Group Exercise #4: Q2 Solution
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• The WTP for a certain attribute value change (within a certain attribute) is defined as the maximum dollar amount that the customer will pay for the change (provided the change represents an improvement).
• Q3) what is the WTP for the change from Brand=Samsung to Brand=Apple?
Group Exercise #4: Q3 Willingness-to-pay
• From regression analysis of rating-based conjoint, we get a “partworth” for each level of each attribute:
User interfaceTouch screen 9.2Keyboard 0.0
Brand
Apple 59.5
Blackberry 20.5
Samsung 30.5
Motorola 0.0
Price
CAD199 40.1
CAD299 30.1
CAD399 20.1
CAD499 0.0
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• The change represents an incremental value of 59.5-30.5=29.0 utilsWTP = 29 x Dollar value of 1 util
• The dollar value per util can be inferred by looking at the extremes of the partworths for the price attribute: (40.1 – 0.0) utils = $499 - $199
1 util = $300/40.1 = $7.481297
• Putting it all together WTP = 29 x Dollar value of 1 util
= 29 x $7.481297 = $216.9576
• If the profile with the more preferred attribute level is priced exactly WTP amount dollars higher, then the customer is exactly indifferent about the change in that attribute level.
Group Exercise #4: Q3 Solution
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• From regression analysis of rating-based conjoint, we get a “partworth” for each level of each attribute:
• Q4) Calculate relative importance of each attribute in %.
User interfaceTouch screen 9.2Keyboard 0.0
Brand
Apple 59.5
Blackberry 20.5
Samsung 30.5
Motorola 0.0
Price
CAD199 40.1
CAD299 30.1
CAD399 20.1
CAD499 0.0
Group Exercise #4: Q4 Assessing Attribute Importance
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• In conjoint analysis, the “importance” of each attribute is computed via the following 2 steps.
• Step 1: For each attribute, look at the partworths for all the attribute levels within that attribute and compute the difference between the largest and the smallest. This difference is the “partworth range” for that attribute.
• In our example, the partworth ranges are:
Attribute Partworth Range
User interface 9.2 – 0.0 = 9.2Brand 59.5 – 0.0 = 59.5Price 40.1 – 0.0 = 40.1
Group Exercise #4: Q4 Solution
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• Step 2: The importance (weights) are just partworth ranges normalized to add up to 1. To normalize, compute the sum of the partworth ranges. Divide each partworth ranges by the sum.
• In our example, the sum of the partworth ranges is: 9.2 + 59.5 + 40.1 = 108.8.
• So the importance for each attribute is:
Attribute Importance
User interface 9.2/108.8 =0.0846Brand 59.5/108.8 =0.5469Price 40.1/108.8 =0.3685
Group Exercise #4: Q4 Solution
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Segmentation Using Conjoint Analysis
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Segmentation Using Conjoint Analysis
• A market segment is a sub-set of a market made up of people with one or more characteristics that cause them to demand similar product or services
• Why?
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• $50 = 4 Units $12.5 = 1 Unit
• Apple > Samsung
• 20GB > 10GB4 Units = $50
1 Units = $12.5
Consumer A • $50 = 2 Units $25 = 1 Unit
• Samsung > Applg
• 20GB > 10GB0.5 Units = $12.2
4 Units = $100
Consumer F
• $50 = 2 Units $25 = 1 Unit
• Samsung > Apple
• 20GB > 10GB0.5 Units = $12.0
4 Units = $100
Consumer E
• $50 = 2 Units $25 = 1 Unit
• Samsung > Applg
• 20GB > 10GB0.5 Units = $12.0
4 Units = $100
Consumer D
• $50 = 2 Units $25 = 1 Unit
• Samsung > Apple
• 20GB > 10GB0.5 Units = $12.5
4 Units = $100
Consumer C
• $50 = 2 Units $25 = 1 Unit
• Samsung > Apple
• 20GB > 10GB0.5 Units = $12.5
4 Units = $100
Consumer B
……
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$ Value of Memory
$ Value of AppleSegment 1
Segment 2