congestion management in singapore - un escap · for example, the less-sophisticated\爀屮systems...

$: Congestion Management in Singapore - UN ESCAP · For example, the less-sophisticated\爀屮systems in use in London and Stockholm use extensive\爀屮networks of cameras to identify$
Congestion Management in Singapore

Assoc Prof Anthony TH CHINDepartment of Economics

National University of [email protected]

Introduction

Introduction and What is Traffic Congestion?

Economic Instruments: Pricing, Quota and Tradable Permits

Equity Issues

Singapore’s Holistic Approach and Conclusion

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UNESCAP Policy Options for Sustainable Transport Development

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Compared to before, the ERP system: solves human error problem. provides a more accurate deduction in ERP charge. Prices are made more flexible and fair to public

Introducion: What is congestion?

Congestion can be measured by:1. Speed flow curves Expressway – 45 to 65 km/hOther roads – 20 to 30 km/h2. Delays in travel time

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

Urban traffic congestion http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/jtrc/CongestionSummary.pdf

11/12/2013UNESCAP Policy Options for Sustainable Transport Development 4

Introduction


18.5 km/h

Introduction


Introduction

Introduction

Future

GPS-based ERP system (ERP II)

Distance-based congestion charging

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

Overcome inflexibility of physical gantry. Users will be charge more fairly by the amount of congested road that they have used.

11/12/2013UNESCAP Policy Options for Sustainable Transport Development

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Introduction


Introduction


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Introduction


Introduction


30% decrease in traffic within RZ

By 1988, 31% decrease compared to pre-charging levels

After ALS is replaced ERP, traffic down by 10-15%

30% decrease in congestion

14% faster in journey times

71,000 more passengers for buses

14% decrease in number of vehicles entering restricted zones

Introduction


As GDP per capita increases, more drivers can better afford the charge. Instead of increasing charges gradually, governments may introduce a large spike in congestion charge to induce a shock factor in drivers

Introduction

Introduction: Speed flow

Rates reviewed every 3 monthsEnsure optimal use of road space

Expressway:

Other roads:

45 kph 65 kph

20 kph 30 kph

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Morning peak hour congestion

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

From surburbs to City (Raffles place) http://sg.news.yahoo.com/blogs/fit-to-post-autos/where-busiest-roads-singapore-005656369.html

Evening Peak Hour Congestion

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

From City (Raffles place) to Surburbs

Direct impact of ERP

Reduction in generalized cost of congestion:

1.Travelling time

2.Depreciation

3.Fuel

4.Maintenance

5.Repairs of vehicles

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

http://www.vcec.vic.gov.au/CA256EAF001C7B21/WebObj/Businesscostsoftrafficcongestion1August2006/$File/Business%20costs%20of%20traffic%20congestion%201%20August%202006.pdf (pg 4-8)

Direct impact of ERP

Reduction in business production cost:

1.Prevents loss of productivity due to extended delivery time

2.Decrease vehicle operating expenses

3.Decrease logistics and scheduling time

4.Avoid additional inventory cost

5.Reduced cost of ‘Rescue drivers’ for missed deliveries

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Indirect impact of ERP

Reduction in externalities:

1.Reduce lower-level accident cost (due to frustration)

2.Reduce cost of pollution

3.Increase amenity of road infrastructure (Stress)

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Impact on economy

The prevention of cost of congestion to the economy results in:Increase competitiveness due to higher productivityPrevents the loss of advantages of agglomeration of buyers and sellers in the city area (Raffles place, City hall, Orchard etc.)

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Effectiveness of ERP

Demand Price Elasticity:

E = % change in demand / % change in price

As demand price elasticity increases, effect on reducing congestion becomes larger and welfare loss becomes smaller

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

When speed of car falls below 45km/h there is congestion and increase in demand so ERP will increase in rates. Effectiveness is then measured by how much the increase in $1 ERP charge will influence the speed flow curves.

Cost-Benefit Analysis

Flatter demand curve

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Cost-Benefit Analysis

Less welfare loss

Flatter demand curve

MSC

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Year Average Speed During Peak Hour (km/hour)

Expressways CBD / Arterial Roads 2002 64.8 24.62003 64.4 24.82004 62.9 25.82005 62.8 26.72006 62.7 27.62007 61.2 26.82008 63.6 26.62009 62.2 27.62010 62.3 282011 62.5 28.52012 63.1 28.6

Singapore Traffic Flow

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/Traffic%20Flow%20(2012).pdf


18.5 km/h

Annual Motor Vehicle Population under Vehicle Quota System(VQS)

Year Total2002 706,9562003 711,0432004 727,3952005 754,9922006 799,3732007 851,3362008 894,6822009 925,5182010 945,8292011 956,7042012 969,910

2002 – 2012•Total vehicle population has increased by 37%

•Average speed on Expressways is 60-65 kph

•Average speed on CBD roads is 20-30 kph

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Presenter

Presentation Notes

http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/MVP01-2_MVP_by_COE.pdf

Key Questions

1. Are the Charges fair?2. Do I gain from the

extra Charges?3. How are the revenues

re-invested?


Equity Issues 1

Horizontal Equity

Vertical Equity


Equity Issues 2

Congestion Pricing is vertically inequitable

Horizontally Equitable•A toll charge of $5 along CBD area charges everyone the same amount

Vertically Inequitable• Represents a larger portion of income for a low-income driver than high-income driver


Equity Issues 3

Class Impact Equity Considerations

Non-Drivers (Public transport and passengers)

Not affected by charges Non-drivers include people who are disadvantaged, revenues should be used to maximize their benefits

Low Income Drivers

Priced out of system,change for the worse

Govt to use revenues to benefit this group

Middle-Income Drivers

Net benefits reduced, but overall positive gain

Deserve to benefit from revenue only if external costs are compensated

High-income drivers

Time gain is worth of the charges paid

No justification to use road pricing revenue to benefit them


Equity Issues 4


Implication: Empirical studies show that bigger proportion of motorists is made up of 1st 2 groups. Thus, majority will suffer from congestion pricing.

Equity Issues 5

Natural Hedging Strategy

Surplus of Pounds sold for Euros

Purchase US/Euro forward contracts

Business Travelers Localization Effect Privacy

Faster delivery,Extra surcharges

Centralization due to increased

cost of travel

Negative Impact on motorists


Equity Issues 6

Presenter

Presentation Notes

For example, the less-sophisticated systems in use in London and Stockholm use extensive networks of cameras to identify and charge vehicles entering the congestion pricing zone

ISSUES TO BE SOLVED

Increasing population

Remains divisive and controversial

What is the suitable price to charge?

•Only 4 major cities have implemented congestion pricing

•Real short term benefits, but questionable long term gains

• Addition and expansion of bus lanes, metro and increased parking costs in cities

•Car-pooling, car sharing

•Modal shifts in transportation


Equity Issues 7

Presenter

Presentation Notes

For example, the less-sophisticated systems in use in London and Stockholm use extensive networks of cameras to identify and charge vehicles entering the congestion pricing zone

Data has shown ERP impact on reducing congestion is effective despite the persistent increase in vehicles every year

The increase in ERP charges coupled with the increase in number of gantries is a necessary measure to reduce road users to a socially optimal level

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Conclusion 1

Conclusion 2

Road Pricing has proven to be theoretically effective, even with the relaxation in the assumption of perfect information of traffic condition.

In the short run, empirical evidences suggest:

The price elasticity of demand for road space is relatively high.

Road Pricing Schemes, when implemented, would significantly reduce traffic flow.

In the long run impacts of road pricing is mixed:

However, evidences from ongoing programmes support that Road Pricing is effective in maintaining a steady congestion reduction in the long run

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Increase awareness of ERP cost by organizing campaigns and creating games to increase price sensitivity of users

Create phone applications to help users plan transport routes and save cost on ERP changes

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Conclusion 3

Impact of road pricing requires an network approach and analysis.

Congestion management involves a holistic approach:

Systematic, dynamic and effective land use planning;

Availability and investment in alternative travel modes such as public transport, car sharing, non-motorized transport, car- pooling;

Car park policy and livability of the city core;

Change in attitudes towards motorcars through behavioral change.

Conclusion 4

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Conclusion 5


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DRAFT LAND USE MASTER PLAN 2013

Transport network to be expanded. Emphasis on green and sustainable transportation modes, such as public transport, cycling and walking;

Greater connectivity for all commuters over the next 10 to 15 years. Agencies to be guided by a more connected Singapore, greater accessibility to public transport and a reduced reliance on private cars as a mode of commute;

The rail network will double to about 360km by 2030. 80% of all homes are within a 10-minute walk of an MRT station;

Bus services enhanced with increased fleets, and more integrated transport hubs;

Infrastructure will be put in place to encourage cycling as an alternative mode of transport for both commuting and leisure. Pedestrian connectivity within a 400m radius of MRT stations will be further improved through a network of covered link-ways that connect to activity-generating hubs in the vicinity;

HDB towns will have more options for walking and cycling, and ultimately lead to sustainable living environment.


Conclusion 6

Singapore national cycling plan


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Today 230 km of park connectors and cycling paths.Aim 700 km of integrated and comprehensive paths.


City Cycling mode share

Km per 100,000

Copenhagen 35% 80Portland 6% 73Amsterdam 27% 71Sydney 0.7% 15Toronto 1.7% 12Singapore 1.0% 12London 2.0% -

Punggol to Tampines 12.2 km

Travel time (mins)

Travel cost ($)

Car 14 9.8

Bus/LRT 59 3.06

Bicycle 35 0

congestion management in singapore - un escap · for example, the less-sophisticated\爀屮systems...

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