confidential s&op march 2010 26 th march 2010. 2 confidential

Confidential

S&OP March 2010

26th March 2010

2

Confidential

Confidential

Agenda

1. Unconstraint Forecast FY 2010 by Quarter

2. Supply Update

3. Production Output

4. Supply Capacity

5. Scorecard

Confidential

The activities for the balance of 2010Dulac & Dupro

Price increase of 5% from May 2010

Dugro Q2

National Campaign (consumer contest + roadshow + ATL support) in Apr & May 2010

Dugro 1kg price promo (RM19.90 –rebate of RM1.30) from April to May 2010 for all channels

April +25% over Past 6 month AMS

May +20% over Past 6 month AMS

Dugro 1.5kg Promo in June 2010 (RM28.50 – rebate of RM1.50), explore to have clearance plan with Giant in Apr.

+10% over Past 6 month AMS on Dugro 1kg for the month of June 2010 (rebate of 50cent to non IKA, GT & CMH selling at RM20.90)

Confidential

The activities for the balance of 2010…. contDugro Q3

Dugro 1.1kg promo in July 2010 funding from A&P

+ 25% over Past 6 month AMS

Launch of Strawberry 1kg (RM5mil gross from mid June to end Dec 2010)

Q3 Campaign with Dugro 1kg with the pricing of RM20.90 (Rebate RM0.50)

Aug +25% over Past 6 month AMS

Sept +20% over Past 6 month AMS

Confidential

The activities for the balance of 2010…. cont

Dugro Q4

Dugro 1kg price promo (RM19.90 – funding between RM1.3) from Oct – Nov for all channels

Oct +20% over Past 6 month AMS

Nov +15% over Past 6 month AMS

No pricing promo in Dec 2010

Confidential

The activities for the balance of 2010 ….cont

MG Q2

MG Gum premium promo in May & June 2010

Phase Out the MG IFFO, Gum & Mamil Mama start from July 2010 base on the stocks available in Trade and Distributor

Q3

Start phasing in the new stocks to distributor by mid Sept 2010 for Malaysia (BN will only launch in 2011)

9

Confidential

Forecast Unconstraint FY 2010 Vs Budget

Data with January & February 2010 actual. Assumption sales closing lower in Mar 10.

Forecast base on all the activities assumption

10

Confidential

Forecast Unconstraint FY 2010 Vs FY2009 Actual

Decline trending from Mamex due to high inventory in trade (average > 3 months stocks holding in trade & 1 month stocks holding at distributor.

Confidential

Agenda

1. Review Last Month Minutes


3. Supply Update


5. Supply Capacity

6. Scorecard

12

Confidential

Supply Update – Malaysia

Next available date in 2nd week of May. Working to pull ahead the production by end Apr and available by 1st week of May.

Reasons being:1. 1 torn bag of Malt Flavor at production area during handling2. There was no buffer stocks as the initial forecast is lower than the

actual requirement.3. Moving forward, will keep 1 bag (25kg) as safety stock for contingency

plan. Open bag shelf life for Malt Flavor is 3 months as confirmed by QFS.

Supply ConstraintQuantity (CTN) Value (RM)

1 FGD1PCH0650PUMY35 POU 814 146,032 Short packed caused by shortage of Malt flavour2 FGD1PCH1000PUMY35 POU 522 137,808 Short packed caused by shortage of Malt flavour3 FGD3PCH0650PUMY35 POU 162 29,078 Short packed caused by shortage of Malt flavour

312,917

Pack Type

Material NumberNo Remark

13

Confidential

Supply Update – Specialty

1. HA : 90 cartons will be airfreight and ETA on 15/Apr. Balance will be sea ship and ETA mid May.

2. AR : Please refer to next slides

Material Country Apr'10 May'10 Jun'10 Jul'10 Aug'10 Sep'10 Oct'10 Nov'10 Dec'10 Total 2010

TGMARRG0400TNMY00 MY 30 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 190VN 100 100 100 100 100 0 100 100 100 800Total 130 120 120 120 120 20 120 120 120 990Accum 130 250 370 490 610 630 750 870 990

Accum(Weight(kg) 624 1200 1776 2352 2928 3024 3600 4176 4752

TGMHARG0400TNMY00 MY 49 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 36 316SG 280 30 30 30 40 40 50 50 550Total 49 313 63 63 63 73 73 50 86 866Accum 49 362 425 488 551 624 697 747 833Accum(Weight(kg) 235 1738 2040 2342 2645 2995 3346 3586 3998

14

Confidential

AR volumes

MY = 1216 kg p.a. or 240 tins per month!VN = 5120 kg p.aRisks = VN cuts their volumes !

• Argentina Artwork

15

Confidential

AR Status – No Success in Argentina or Australia

ArgentinaNo HalalRecipe – No DHA/AA, Low Vit B1400 gm; label24 months expiryMOQ:4800 kg or 4 years stock!

Australia• No Halal

• Recipe – No DHA/AA, Low Vit B1

• 900 gm, printed• Insufficient

capacity• MOQ : 13.5 tons

16

Confidential

Next Steps

Do we proceed with MY ?

17

Confidential

Forecast Constraint FY 2010 by Quarter

Affordable GUM activities start from Q2 – Q4 MG PIPO activities start in Q3

18

Confidential

Q2 Monthly Forecast

19

Confidential

CANN in Value for 2010

DANONE DUMEX MALAYSIAComputation of Expected S&OP CANN Y2010

Full Year Growth (F10 vs B10)

Full Year Growth (F10 vs Y09)

Fcst vs Budget Fcst vs Last YrMYR '000 % over CAB MYR '000 % over CAB MYR '000 % over CAB

Gross Sales 526,532 102.1% 574,784 101.8% 505,026 102.2% -8.4% 4.3%Returns (10,848) -2.1% (10,346) -1.8% (11,010) -2.2%

CAB 515,685 100.0% 564,438 100.0% 494,016 100.0% -8.6% 4.4%

Sales Discounts (30,810) -6.0% (33,232) -5.9% (33,063) -6.7%

CAF 484,875 94.0% 531,206 94.1% 460,952 93.3%

Deferred Rebates (16,809) -3.3% (18,425) -3.3% (17,302) -3.5%

Trade Support (37,727) -7.3% (41,726) -7.4% (31,188) -6.3%

CANN 430,339 83.5% 471,054 83.5% 412,462 83.5% -8.6% 4.3%

less: Dugro Discounting (4,670) -0.9% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

Revised CANN 425,669 82.5% 471,054 83.5% 412,462 83.5% -9.6% 3.2%

Full Year Full Year Full Year

FORECAST 2010 OFFICIAL BUDGET 2010

ACTUAL 2009 (LY)

Confidential

Agenda



3. Supply Update


5. Supply Capacity

6. Scorecard

21

Confidential

Total Production Output (incl. ID Nutrilon)

1. BOS lines latest estimate volume increase by 2.3% compared with A2009.

2. EZY line latest estimate volume decrease by 1.8% compared with A2009 (include 117MT for Nutrilon)

3. RIF latest estimate volume increase by 8.2% compared with A2009.

4. Total volume in 2010 increase by 4% compared with A2009.

19,067

1,707

8,908

92

29,774

18,643

1,739

8,232

58

28,673

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

NBOS NEZY NRIF NTAM All Lines

LE2010 Prod. Output ( in MT ) FY2009 Prod. Output ( in MT )

Confidential

Agenda



3. Supply Update


5. Supply Capacity

6. Scorecard

23

Confidential

Bosch Lines Capacity

1. Average capacity is 92% throughout the year.2. Plan downtime in Apr 2010 – 6 shifts3. Capacity load are based on the following assumptions:

Used revised OE of 68% with effective from 1st Mar.

86% 85% 87% 89%

108%

117% 92%101%

67%

104%

75%97%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11

Ho

ur

Month

BOSCH Lines Demand vs Capacity Analysis ( 2 lines, 3 shifts/D & 5 working Days/wk)

Sum of Requirements (Hrs) Sum of AvailCap. (Hrs) Cap Load % Ave Cap Load %

Dugro 1.1kg

24

Confidential

Can Line Capacity

1. Average capacity is 98% throughout the year.2. Capacity load are based on the following assumptions:

Use revised OE of 45% effective from 1/Mar.

100% 105% 90% 109%85% 132%

105%92%

109%

91% 83%78%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Apr-10 May-10 Jun-10 Jul-10 Aug-10 Sep-10 Oct-10 Nov-10 Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11

Ho

ur

Month

RIF Lines Demand vs Capacity Analysis ( 1 line, 2 shifts/D & 5 Working days/wk)


25

Confidential

EZY Line Capacity (Inc. ID)

1. Average capacity is 49% throughout the year.2. Capacity load are based on the following assumptions:

Use revised OE of 40% effective from 1 Mar 2010.Include Indonesia Nutrilon launch of 117mt from Jul 10 to Dec 10.

50%

41%

45%39% 33%

87%

62% 60%44%

41%43%

42%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Apr/10 May/10 Jun/10 Jul/10 Aug/10 Sep/10 Oct/10 Nov/10 Dec/10 Jan/11 Feb/11 Mar/11

Ho

ur

Month

EazyPack Line Demand vs Capacity Analysis( 1 line,1 shift/D & 5 Working Days/wk)


Confidential

Agenda



3. Supply Update


5. Supply Capacity

6. Scorecard

27

Confidential

Case Fill Rate 2010Total Distributors & Direct Key Accounts

(combined)

CFR for the first two months of 2010 are above 90%, achieving 96% in Feb 2010.

28

Confidential

CFR – Distributors (Malaysia / Brunei)

All distributors achieved CFR above 90%. No major OOS issues in Feb. CFR failure was due to timing. However, there is no OOS at distributors as

distributors have own stock holding.

Target: 90%

YTD 2010: 94%

29

Confidential

CFR – Direct Key Account

Failed 61ctn due to timing – stocks not available at the time of loading (being

produced / quarantine)

Target: 95%

YTD 2010: 99%

Tesco

Carrefour

Our internal KPI for Feb’10 is at 98%. Failed 19ctn due to Timing and 27ctn due to OOS (MG2

Soya 400g)Target: 95%

YTD 2010: 98%

Giant

63% difference between Giant KPI versus our internal KPI.

Target: 95%

YTD 2010: 93%

Confidential

Scorecard -Sales

GROSS GROSS VALUE J an Feb Mar Apr May J un J ul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Total

Sell In 2009 40,574 47,440 41,027 55,245 46,083 36,678 43,717 42,116 44,482 42,143 42,878 36,683 519,067

Sell In 2010 42,058 36,050 78,108

Sell Out 2009 33,079 41,203 40,097 46,281 44,679 34,450 36,773 44,303 41,498 49,317 40,343 44,078 496,101

Sell Out 2010 39,241 33,070 72,311

Sell in vs sell out 2009 7,495 6,237 930 8,964 1,404 2,228 6,944 (2,187) 2,984 (7,174) 2,535 (7,395) 22,965

Sell in vs sell out 2010 2,818 2,980 5,798

Distributor Stock Holding Days 2009 15 17 14 19 19 24 27 27 27 20 23 18

Distributor Stock Holding Days 2010 19 24

31

Confidential

Remarks

Sell out have been slow in Feb 2010 :- Festive Price War from DL

Confidential

Nilai Total Inventory 2010

Feb inventory landed with 1.8 days higher that budget mainly due MY Sales down by 4.9mil which cause FG

increased by 2.2mil.

Confidential

Forecast Accuracy 2010

Forecast accuracy for the month of Feb 2010 drop by 3 points due to the slow sell out & sell in. (High inventory at distributors of D1P &D3P 1kg, thus impact on the sell in – Forecast Accuracy drop by 6 points)

TARGET 75%

Confidential

Thank You

confidential s&op march 2010 26 th march 2010. 2 confidential

Documents