concepts in portfolio management · 2017-01-14 · •review your portfolio quarterly, normally...
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Concepts in Portfolio Management
Ty Hughes Director, D.C. Regional Chapter
December 5, 2016
• Basic Principles
• When to sell a company
• Adequate diversification
• Using benchmarks to assess portfolio performance
• Reasonable exceptions for total return
• Tracking your portfolio with Google Sheets
Applying BI Principles
• Growth and Profitability. "Own the best companies in an industry.” Look for quality management. The growth rate should be acceptable for the size of the company.
• Value. Check the Relative Value, — the relationship between the current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) and the historical P/E for the company.
• Expected Total Return. Use the stock selection guide. Keep upgrading the expected return of your portfolio.
• Safety. This is best achieved by diversification.
Managing a Portfolio
• Review your portfolio quarterly, normally after earnings season
• Update your stock selection guides quarterly
• Look for changes in company fundamentals (moat, sales, and earnings)
• Identify companies with a change in fundamentals
• If there is a significant price drop, determine why
• Compare portfolio performance with a benchmark
When to Sell a Company
• When something is truly wrong with the company business and it won’t likely be fixed within a year.
• When the stock price has risen so much that future gains are unlikely. You can hedge and sell part of your position.
• When you find a better stock. This is a way of exiting a weak holding and increasing the projected average return of the portfolio.
• When you need the money.
Adequate Diversification
Stocks in a Diversified PortfolioSt
anda
rd D
evia
tion
(%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
Number of Stocks0 10 20 30 40 50
16 stocks ± 4
Impact of a 50% Drop in One Stock on Overall Portfolio Return
Portf
olio
Ret
urn
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
Stocks in Portfolio1 2 5 10 12 15 20 25
Stocks Return1 -50%2 -25%5 -10%10 -5%12 -4.2%15 -3.3%20 -2.5%25 -2.0%
Impact of a Single Bankruptcy on Overall Portfolio Return
Portf
olio
Ret
urn
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
Stocks in Portfolio1 2 5 10 12 15 20 25
Stocks Return1 -100%2 -50%5 -20%10 -10%12 -8.3%15 -6.7%20 -5.0%25 -4.0%
Position Size Guidelines%
of T
otal
Ass
ets
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Number of Holdings (Stocks)8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Ranges from 1/2 to 2x of the target holding percent
More on Diversification• Should hold at least 16 ± 4 companies.
• Hold companies from four different sectors.
• Mix of fast and slower growing companies.
• Mix of small, medium and large companies measured by revenues — 25% large cap, 50% mid-cap, and 25% small cap.
• Don’t sacrifice quality for diversification.
Using Benchmarks
• “If you don't know where you are going you'll end up someplace else.” - Yogi Berra
• Compare your portfolio performance against a benchmark that is representative of your asset allocation.
• Don’t compare apples and oranges. Bonds and equities behave differently. Large cap, small cap and international stocks have different returns.
• It is easy to create a custom benchmark that reflects the asset allocation in your portfolio.
ETFs Ticker
S&P 500 INDEX SPX
Russell 2000 RUT
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Index Fund (ETF) IYY
NASDAQ 100 NDX
Index Funds Ticker
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral Shares VTSAX
Vanguard 500 Index Fund Admiral Class VFIAX
Vanguard Value Index Fund Admiral Shares VVIAX
Vanguard Mid-Cap Growth Index Fund Admiral Shares VMGMX
Vanguard Mid-Cap Value Index Fund Admiral Shares VMVAX
Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund Admiral Shares VSMAX
Vanguard Small Cap Value Index Fund Admiral Shares VSIAX
Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US Index Fund Admiral Shares VFWAX
Vanguard Developed Markets Index Fund AdmiralShares Fund VTMGX
Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund Admiral Shares VEMAX
Vanguard Total Bond Index Fund Admiral Shares VBTLX
Sample Benchmark
Assumes all U.S. equities — 25% large cap, 50% mid cap, and 25% small call.
Expected Return
0.3%
26.6%
-8.8%
22.6%
16.4% 12.4%
-10.0%
23.8%
10.8%
-8.2%
3.6%
14.2% 18.8%
-14.3%
-25.9%
37.0%
23.8%
-7.0%
6.5%
18.5%
31.7%
-4.7%
20.4% 22.3%
6.1%
31.2%
18.5%
5.8%
16.5%
31.5%
-3.1%
30.2%
7.5% 10.0%
1.3%
37.2%
22.7%
33.1% 28.3%
20.9%
-9.0% -11.8%
-22.0%
28.4%
10.7% 4.8%
15.6%
5.5%
-36.6%
25.9%
14.8%
2.1%
15.9%
32.1%
13.5%
1.4%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
S&P500AnnualReturn
Historic Returns Geometric Average
S&P 500 3 mo. T-bill 10 yr. T-bond
1928-2015 9.50% 3.45% 4.96%
1966-2015 9.61% 4.92% 6.71%
2006-2015 7.25% 1.14% 4.71%
Decline % NumberAvg. Length of
Decline in Months
Avg. Recovery Time in Months
5-10% 41 1 1
10-20% 11 4 3
20-30% 4 11 8
30-40% 2 9 15
40+% 3 23 60
Declines in the S&P 500 from Jan 1950 - Nov 2016
The 3 pullbacks of greater than 40% all occurred during recessions: 1973-74, 20000-02, and 2007-08
Source: Delta Investment Management
S&P 500 Observations• The market is volatile year-to-year but has always gone up
in the long term.
• The market has always recovered from its lows and then reached new highs.
• Selling when the market has dropped or buying because the market has gone up guarantees poor return.
• Trying to time the market is a sure way to lose money.
• If you don’t have at least a 4-5 year time horizon, don’t invest in equities.
Beware the Prognosticators• Trump will not be president. Corollary: The Republican Party is in
disarray.
• “Sell everything! 2016 will be a cataclysmic year for the stock market” – Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), January 12, 2016
• “A recession worse than 2008 is coming” – CNBC, January 15, 2016
• “Oil will slide to $20 per barrel” - Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Bank of America Merrill Lynch, January 11, 2016
• “China is Headed for a 1929-style Depression” - The Economist, May 2016
Source: Delta Investment Management
Equity ReturnReturn = EPS Growth + Dividend Yield + ∆ P/E
In applying this formula consider:
• GDP is generally correlated with EPS growth for the total market.
• Average dividend yield from 1960-2015 was 3%.
• P/E for a stock is generally correlated with growth and quality but market P/E tends to refer to the mean over the long term.
Example - Market Return
Gr EPS Div ∆ P/E Total Return
Current P/E 2.5% 2% 0 4.5%
P/E RTM (5 yrs) 2.5% 2.5% -9.0% -4.0%
P/E RTM (3 yrs) 2.5% 3% -14.5% -9.0%
Assumes market EPS growth equal to GDP. Note impact of P/E reversion to the mean
P/E reversion to the mean is from 25 to 15.6.
Example - Growth Stock
Gr EPS Div ∆ P/E Total Return
Current P/E 10% 1% 0 11%
P/E RTM (5 yrs) 10% 1.3% -9.0% 2.3%
P/E RTM (3 yrs) 10% 1.5% -14.5% -3.0%
Assumes a growth stocks with 10% EPS growth. As P/E returns to the mean, dividend yield will increase.
P/E reversion to the mean is from 25 to 15.6.
What is the likely total annual return for equities
over the next 5 years?
Tracking a Portfolio with Google Finance
• Google Sheets has a robust set of financial functions for building custom spreadsheets
• There are separate functions for stocks and mutual funds. They are easy to learn.
• Google Sheets are private unless you share them. But don’t include identifying information.
• Learn more at the Google Sheets help page
• Here is the Google Finance documentation
Click on chart to go to the Google Sheet
Click on chart to go to the Google Sheet
Google Finance Tips
• Use the Google finance functions. Sometimes Google historic data throws an error. Use iferror([formula], “-“).
• Add colors with conditional formatting.
• Take the time to format your spreadsheet.
• Learn the difference between A1, $A1, A$1 and $A$1 and use it to replicate formulas.
• Create a dashboard linked to multiple sheets.
• Experiment - you can’t break the spreadsheet, use the “undo” function Control+Z to go back.
Questions?
Backup Slides
Equity Risk Premium
Stocks - T-bills Stocks - T-bonds
1928-2015 6.05% 4.54%
1966-2015 4.69% 2.90%
2006-2015 6.11% 2.53%
The equity risk premium is the expected return on stocks in excess of the risk-free rate
Theoretically, return on equities should equal the risk free rate + the equity risk premium
Examples - Risk PremiumT-Bill Risk
PremiumTotal
Return
Currently 0.8% 4.5% 5.3%
RTM 4.7% 6.1% 10.8%
Above returns include inflation. Nominal returns would be somewhat lower. Current rate of inflation is 1.6%. The102 year average is 3.18%.