Composition of the Threat

• Terrorist Groups

• State Actors/Military

• Other (Piracy, Criminal)

• General Trends– Attacks increasing– Targets– Locations

Trend: No recent attacks on maritime infrastructure in the Arabian Gulf

2

Al-Qaeda / ISIL Threat Trend

• Motive– Doctrinal– Economic – Strategic

• Access– Unstable regions/insurgencies– ISIL lacks access to S. Iraq / Arabian Gulf

• Capability– No attacks on oil platforms since 2004

3

Strong motive; partial access; modest capability

• Notable Incidents‒ July 2010, AQ suicide boat attack on M/V M. STAR‒ April 2004, coordinated AQ attack on ABOT and KAAOT

Iranian Military Threat Trend

• Motive– Lacking at this time– Engaged in multiple diplomatic efforts– Marketing navies as “protectors”– Subject to change

• Access– Full access to infrastructure throughout Gulf– Expanding ranges of stand-off weapons– Increasing naval reach

• Capability– Largest, most active naval forces in Gulf– Ballistic missiles range coastal infrastructure– Robust maritime special operations forces– Historical experience of infrastructure seizure

• Notable Incident– August 2006, Iranian Navy attacks Orizont offshore oil rig– April 1998, Iranian Navy attacks ships/ rig in UAE oil field– November 1980, Iranian commandos destroy 2 Iraqi OPLATs

4No current motive; broad access; robust capability