compensation not control music 2.0 gerd leonhard midem net 2009

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist

Music 2.0: Compensation not Control

Gerd Leonhard www.mediafuturist.com

★ twitter.com/gleonhard

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist I think I know how you feel

Internet

MusicIndustry


Today 2-3 years 5-7 years

100%

40%

10%

150%

85%

61% 60%

15%6%

Global Broadband PenetrationGlobal Mobile PenetrationPercentage of People with Computers

Cost of Internet Access Cost of Storage Skills Required

Yet: you ain’t seen nothing yet!


4 Billion PeopleSharing


So far, the focus on Controlling Music Online has not resulted in solid new revenue streams

for the Creators

Mediapost, Dec 2008: “In more than five years, the RIAA sued or threatened to sue around 35,000 file-sharers, including one deceased grandmother, teenagers, and single mothers. The one case that went to a jury trial--a lawsuit

against single mother Jammie Thomas--ultimately resulted in a mistrial.

The RIAA admitted that it spent millions prosecuting cases--far more than it recovered in settlements. Meanwhile, [U.S.] revenue from sales fell to around $10 billion last year from

more than $14 billion in 1998--the year before Napster launched.

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Copyright DilemmaCopy

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist The Copyright Dilemma (2)Right


You don’t have to be a Futurist to see that the current concept of forcing people into consuming music in a way

that suits us (the industry) better, will not work.

I think we need to review our assumptions.


So far, Refusal was fruitless -It’s time to switch to

PermissionGoogle’s Eric Schmidt (when talking about the book publishers & Google):

“We write large checks when we have a great strategy”


A new Collective License

for the use of Music on the Internet


The ‘new’ concept of disconnecting file-sharing Internet users is not a

It’s...


Telecom

Content

LegislationGovernmentRegulation

BrandsAgencies

AdvertisersMedia

Google China President Kai Fu Lee: “Mutual Interest, rather than Monopoly,

is the key to sustainable growth”


ISPs, Telecoms &Networks

LabelsPublishers

Rights Organizations PROs / MROs

Government

AdvertisersSocial Nets

Search Brands

So how would it work?

ProvideCollective License

Rev Share &License Fee

per User

“Pool of Money”

...want to align withArtists / Genres

Programs / Platforms & Services to reach

Consumers i.e. Users

$$$

~ Euro 250 Billion

10% of Revenues for On-demand Streams, 1 Euro / Week / User for downloads (EU)


How to get that Euro / Week:

Advertising 2.0 / Branding / Sponsorship +Marketing Subsidies by ISPs & Networks +

Device Makers Subsidies +User Payments +

Bundled with TV & Radio License +Data Mining Revenues +

++++...


EU: 500 Million Euros PER WEEKApprox. 26 Billion Euros Per Year

generated viaa new Collective License for Music on the Internet


Sound familiar?

Picture by http://flickr.com/photos/matteo86photonature/


+ =

+

=

~1910

~2009?


Why will this happen?

“Mutual Interest - rather than Monopoly -

is the key to sustainable growth”


0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Was Is Soon The Future

Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)

Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXTValue of Meta-Content Value of ExperiencesValue of Packaging

Value of ‘a Copy’

Value of ContextValue of Experience

Value of Meta-ContentValue of Packaging

Gerd Leonhard Media Futurist This is the wave we must learn to ride

Was Is Soon Near Future Mid-term Future

Attention - Based Revenues


Selling music: finding the new money

10%

20%

10%

30%

10%

20%

Next Generation Advertising FreemiumCollective License (Flat Rates & Bundles) New GenerativesSell Copies *Take 2 3rd party pays (cross subsidies)


A new Internet-Music License would only be the beginning...


My proposition

Let’s do what’s right for Compensation not for Control

Let’s generate future revenues for the Creators not just the Lawyers

Let’s do what’s right for Social, Cultural and Business Reasons

A new Collective License for Music on the Internet


“We make a living by what we get, we make a life by what we give”

Sir Winston Churchill


TALK BACK:★ email me at [email protected]★ twitter.com/gleonhard★ facebook: gleonhard★ more presentations at www.mediafuturist.com★ Thought-Stream at www.gerdstream.com

Thanks for listening!