comparative assessment of modelling scenario analysis for ......reduction cost future economic...
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Comparative Assessment of Modelling
Scenario Analysis for low carbon road
transport development in China
Jiang Kejun
Energy Research Institute
ERI, China ERI, China
to support the activities of GIZ and the project partner, the
Chinese Urban Sustainable Transport Research Center
(CUSTReC), with assessing the already existing methodologies,
studies and related results regarding the prospection and scenario
analyses of the GHG emissions of the road transport sector in
China as well as the reduction potential of selected measures and
instruments (including economic, political and technical measures
and instruments).
Objective
From the modeling and scenario view point, key elements related
with quantitative scenario analysis need to be figure out in the
modeling study.
-Future road transport demand
-Energy demand and CO2 emission
-Policy intervention
Method for this assessment
-Future road transport demand
Huo Hong etc., Tsinghua University, 2012
Hu Siji, Beijing Jiaotong University, 2012
Jiang Kejun, ERI, 2012
Zhu Songli, ERI, 2004
-Energy demand and CO2 emission
Huo Hong etc., Tsinghua University, 2012
He Kebin et al., Tsinghua Univeristy, 2011
Zhu Yuezhong, ERI, 2001
Chen Wenying, Tsinghua Univesity, 2012
Hu Siji, Beijing Jiaotong University, 2012
Huang Ying, Guangzhou Energy Research Institute, CAS, 2011
Cai Bofeng et al, Chinese Academy for Environment Science,
2012
Tian Jianhua, Dalian University of Technology, 2008
Jiang Kejun, ERI, 2012
Study reviewed
Huo Hong etc., FEEI (Fuel Economy and Environmental Impacts)
He Kebin et al., LEAP
Zhu Yuezhong, LEAP
Hu Siji, Dynamic Model, IPAC, Economic Matrix Model
Huang Ying, Accounting model
Cai Bofeng et al, Accounting model
Chen Wenying, Markal Model
Jiang Kejun, IPAC
Tian Jianhua, GM-PLS model, Agent based model
Model Used
LEAP is an integrated modeling tool that can be used to track
energy consumption, production and resource extraction in all
sectors of an economy. It can be used to account for both energy
sector and non-energy sector greenhouse gas (GHG) emission
sources and sinks. In addition to tracking GHGs, LEAP can also
be used to analyze emissions of local and regional air pollutants,
making it well-suited to studies of the climate co-benefits of local
air pollution reduction.
LEAP
LEAP is not a model of a particular energy system, but rather a
tool that can be used to create models of different energy systems,
where each requires its own unique data structures. LEAP
supports a wide range of different modeling methodologies: on
the demand side these range from bottom-up, end-use accounting
techniques to top-down macroeconomic modeling. LEAP also
includes a range of optional specialized methodologies including
stock-turnover modeling for areas such as transport planning. On
the supply side, LEAP provides a range of accounting and
simulation methodologies that are powerful enough for modeling
electric sector generation and capacity expansion planning, but
which are also sufficiently flexible and transparent to allow LEAP
to easily incorporate data and results from other more specialized
models.
LEAP
LEAP
LEAP
FEEI
FEEI
FEEI
FEEI
14
模型方法分类
一般均衡模型：REMIND， WITCH， AIM-CGE，
TIAM-ECN， POLES
部分均衡模型：GCAM，IPAC
动态经济模型： IMAGE， DNE21
技术模型：AIM/Enduse
Framework of Integrated Policy Model for China (IPAC)
ERI, China ERI, China
IPAC-SGM
IPAC-AIM/tech
IPAC-Emission
IPAC/Tech(Power/Transport)
IPAC/SE, IPAC/EAlarm
IPAC-TIMER
IPAC/AIM-Local
Energy demand and supply
Price/investment
Economic impact
Medium/long-term analysis
Medium/short term
analysis
Technology
assessment
Detailed technology
flow
Region analysis
Medium/short analysis
Energy demand and supply
Technology policy
IPAC-AIM/MATERIAL
Energy demand and supply
Full range emission
Price, resource, technology
Medium-long term analysis
Economic impact
Environment industry
Pollutant emission
Medium/long-term analysis
Technology development
Environment impact
Technology policy
AIM-air IPAC-health
Energy demand and supply
Price/investment
Medium/long-term analysis
Short term forecast/
energy early warning
Climate Model
IPAC/Gains-Asia
Methodology framework
Global Model
IPAC-Emission
Energy technology model
IPAC-AIM/technology
Energy economic model
IPAC-SGM
Global energy demand
and supply
Global GHG Emission
Global Target
Burden sharing
Energy import/export
Energy Price
Reduction cost
Future economic
sector detail
Energy intensive industry
Reduction cost
China energy and emission
scenarios
Energy demand by sectors
Energy supply
Reduction cost
18 Structure of IPAC- AIM/ Technology model
Energy Energy Technology Energy Service
- Oil
- Coal - Gas
- Solar
- (Electricity)
- Boiler
- Power generation - Blast furnace
- Air conditioner
- Automobile
- Heating
- Lighting - Steel products
- Cooling
- Transportation
Energy Database for China Technology Database for China
- Population growth
- Economic growth
- Industrial structure
- Employees - Lifestyle
- Energy type
- Energy price
- Energy constraints - CO2 emission factor
- Technology price
- Energy consumption
- Service supplied
- Share
- Lifetime
Socio-economic Scenario for China
Service Demands Technology Selection
Energy Consumption
CO2 Emissions
Structure of IPAC-AIM/Technology Model
19
Classification Technologies (equipment)
& Steel Coke oven, Sintering machine, Blast furnace, Open hearth furnace (OH), Basic oxygen furnace (BOF), AC-electric arc
furnace, DC-electric arc furnace, Ingot casting machine, Continuous casting machine, Continuous casting machine with
rolling machine, steel rolling machine, Continuous steel rolling machine, Equipment of coke dry quenching, Equipment
of coke wet quenching, Electric power generated with residue pressure on top of blast furnace (TRT), Equipment of
coke oven gas, OH gas and BOF gas recovery, Equipment of co-generation.
errous metal Aluminum production with sintering process, Aluminum production with combination process, Aluminum with Bayer,
Electrolytic aluminum with upper-insert cell, Electrolytic aluminum with side-insert cell, crude copper production with
flash furnace, crude copper production with electric furnace, Blast furnace, Reverberator furnace, Lead smelting-
sintering in blast furnace, Lead smelting with closed blast furnace, Zinc smelting with wet method, Zinc smelting with
vertical pot method.
ing materials Cement: Mechanized shaft kiln, Ordinary shaft kiln, Wet process kiln, Lepol kiln, Ling dry kiln, Rotary kiln with pro-
heater, dry process rotary kiln with pre-calciner, Self-owned electric power generator, Electric power generator with
residue heat; Brick & Tile: Hoffman kiln, Tunnel kiln;
Lime: Ordinary shaft kiln, Mechanized shaft kiln; Glass: Floating process, Vertical process, Colburn process, Smelter.
ical industry Equipment of synthetic ammonia production: Converter, Gasification furnace, Gas-making furnace, Synthetic column,
Shifting equipment of sulphur removing; Equipment of caustic soda production: Electronic cell with graphite process,
Two-stage effects evaporator, Multi-stage effects evaporator, Equipment of rectification, Ion membrane method;
Calcium Carbine production: Limestone calciner, Closed carbine furnace, Open carbine furnace, Equipment of residue
heat recovery; Soda ash production: Ammonia & salt water preparation, limestone calcining, distillation column, filter;
Fertilizer production: Equipment of organic products production, Equipment of residue heat utilization
chemical Industry Facilities of atmospheric & vacuum distillation, Facilities of rectification, Facilities of catalyzing & cracking, Facilities
of cracking with hydrogen adding, Facilities of delayed coking, Facilities of light carbon cracking, Sequential separator,
Naphtha cracker, de-ethane separator, diesel cracker, de-propane cracker, facilities of residue heat utilization from
ethylene.
-making Cooker, facilities of distillation, facilities of washing, facilities of bleaching, evaporator, crusher, facilities of de-water,
facilities of finishing, facilities of residue heat utilization, facilities of black liquor recovery, Co-generator, Back
pressure electric power generator, condensing electric power generator.
e Cotton weaving process, Chemical fiber process, Wool weaving & textile process, Silk process, Printing & dyeing
process, Garment making, Air conditioner, Lighting, Facilities of space heating.
inery Ingot process: Cupola, Electric arc furnace, fan; Forging process: coal-fired pre-heater, Gas-fired pre-heater, Oil-fired
pre-heater, Steam hammer, Electric-hydraulic hammer, Pressing machine; Facilities of heat processing: Coal-fired heat
processing furnace, Oil-fired heat processing furnace, Gas-fired heat processing furnace, Electric processing furnace;
Cutting process: Ordinary cutting, high speed cutting.
tion Diesel engine, Electric induct motor
ng works Tractor, Other agricultural machine
ultural products process Diesel engine, Electric induct motor, processing machine, coal-fired facilities.
ry Diesel engine, Electric induct motor.
al husbandry Diesel engine, Electric induct motor, Other machines.
heating in resident Heat supplying boiler in thermal power plant, Boiler of district heating, Dispersed boiler, Small coal-fired stove, Electric
heater, Brick bed linked with stove (Chinese KANG).
ng in resident Air conditioner, Electric fan.
ing in resident Incandescent lamp, Fluorescent lamp, Kerosene lamp.
ing & Hot water in
nt
Gas burner, bulk coal-fired stove, briquette-fired stove, Kerosene stove, Electric cooker, cow dung-fired stove,
firewood-fired stove, methane-fired stove.
ic Appliance Television, Cloth washing machine, Refrigerator, others.
Space heating in service sector Heat supplying boiler in the thermal power plant, Boiler of district heating, dispersed boiler, Electric heater.
ng System of central air conditioner, Air conditioner, Electric fan.
ing Incandescent lamp, fluorescent lamp.
ing & Hot water Gas burner, Electric cooker, Hot water pipeline, Coal-fired stove.
ic Appliance Duplicating machine, computer, Elevator, others.
nger & freight transport Railway (passenger & freight): Steam locomotive, Internal combustion engine locomotive, Electric locomotive.;
Highway (passenger & freight): Public diesel vehicle, Public gasoline vehicle, Private vehicle, Large diesel freight
truck, Large gasoline vehicle, small freight truck.
Waterway (passenger & freight): Ocean-going ship, Coastal ship, Inland ship.
Aviation (passenger & freight): Freight airplane, passenger airplane.
Tec
hn
olo
gy L
ist
ERI, China ERI, China
72 technologies
Transit bus (Gasoline, Diesel, CNG, LPG/Gasoline,
Trolley; hybrid, electric bus);
Taxi (Gasoline, LPG/Gasoline, Diesel; Hybrid,
Electricity);
Car (Gasoline, Diesel, Hybrid, Electricity, Fuel Cell
etc.);
MRTs
Bicycle
Trains: electric, diesel, advanced technologies, high
speed train(350km.h)
Airplane
Ships
Technologies for Transport in
IPAC-AIM/tech
Ownership of Vehicle
Canada
France
India
Italy
韩国
台湾
US
UK
Greece
Spain
Sweden
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 GDP per Capita (1997 $ PPP)
Source: RIIA, 1997 Chatham House Forum
中国2030
汇率法
中国2030PPP
法
新加坡
北京2007
北京2020
杭州2007
香港
上海2007
东营2005
明显的左移效应
城市布局
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
年份
人口
Small City
Medium Size City
Large City
Very Large City
Ultra Large City
Metro length
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
km
Ultra Large City
Very Large City
Large City
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
上海 北京 武汉 西安 哈尔滨 成都 太原
每天上下班路程 每天上下班时间
Distance for commute and time
Distance Time
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
武汉 上海 哈尔滨 北京 西安 成都 太原
日常生活出行乘车次数 日常生活出行的路程
Times to take vehicle and distance， per week
Times Distance
机动车预测，能源所IPAC
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030
年份
万辆
能源所IPAC-2004
能源所IPAC-基准情景2007
能源所IPAC-政策情景2007
汽车产量
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1978
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
2028
年份
万辆
Output of Vehicle 10000
轨道交通投资
05001000150020002500
30003500
2010 2020 2030
年份
亿元
Baseline
Policy
Strong Policy
Bio-Fuel in Transport
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Mtc
e Ethonal
Bio-Diesel
交通周转量，10亿人公里/吨公里
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
客运周转量 3946 4808 6938 11033 17328 23552 32505
货运周转量 5241 9394 14429 23832 36035 57379 79970
公路客运周转量 3386 3991 5818 9101 14094 17777 21598
铁路客运周转量 453 606 752 1072 1385 1791 2315
航空客运周转量 97.1 204.5 360.4 853.2 1841.9 3976.6 8585.1
水运客运周转量 10 7 7 7 7 7 7
公路货运周转量 1430 2251 3565 6853 10713 19345 22637
铁路货运周转量 1366 2073 2692 4003 5576 7769 10824
航空货运周转量 5 8 12 29 70 182 477
水运货运周转量 2375 4954 7949 12296 18136 26758 39490
管道 64 109 209 651 1540 3325 6541
012345678
kgce
/百人
公里
交通模式能源强度：客运
2005
2010
2020
2030
05
1015202530354045
kgce
/百吨
公里
交通模式能源单耗：货运
2005
2010
2020
2030
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
40.00
45.00
公路 航空 铁路 水运 管道
kgce
/百吨
公里
交通模式能源单耗：货运
2005
2010
2020
2030
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Total Vehicle 1609 3160 6227 18583 36318 51717 55810
Passenger 854 2132 4299 15504 32323 46083 48922
Freight 716 1027 1928 3079 3995 5634 6888
Car 670 1919 3921 14982 31558 45075 47662
Family Car 57 1100 3145 14032 30454 43675 46062
Other Car 613 819 776 950 1104 1400 1600
Mini-Bus 108 131 265 313 383 524 214
Large Bus 75.3293 82.3080335 113.4 208.8 382.5 483.84 1045.8
Bus 184 214 378 522 765 1008 1260
Motor Cycle 3771 6582 9848 10613 11193 11193 10634
Vehicle fleet, Low Carbon scenario, 10000
Transport, Low carbon scenario
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Family car ownership, per 100HH Urban 3.37 14 36 65 77 78
Rural 0.08 0.2 8 38 70 90
Family car annual travel distance, km 9500 9500 9300 8635 8300 7480
Average engin size of family cars, litter 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.4
Fuel efficiency of car, L/100km 9.2 8.9 7.1 5.9 4.8 4.1
Share of MRT in total traffic volume, % 0.011 0.016 0.025 0.046 0.1 0.21
Share of Biofuel, % 1.10% 1.30% 4.1% 7.70% 12% 13%
Share of electric car, % 0% 0.12% 3.2% 6.80% 12.5% 19.8%
Share of fuel cell car, % 0% 0% 0.80% 1.60% 4.70% 7.90%
Rapid Bus
Planning scheme of Rail-based transit system in Beijing’s urban area
By 2015, 500km, by 2030 1100km, 210km by 8 June, 2010, 11
metro lines under construction, more than 60 metro lines under
construction in China
Car Fuel Efficiency in China
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
l/1
00
km
Santana
Fukan
JATTA
Audi-100
Xiali
Polo
FIT
JATTA-CTI
BMW
JEEP
SIENA
BENZ
VIZE
QQ-0.8
BORA
SANA
PASSAT
SUNNY
ELANTA
COROLA
QQ-1.1
ELESSA
ACCORD-3.0
PAJERO
PRUIS
LUPO
交通终端能源需求量，基准情景
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
年份
百万
吨标
煤
电
热力
天然气
油品
煤气
焦炭
煤
Final energy demand in Transport, BaU, Mtce
交通能源需求，低碳情景
0100200300400500600700800
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
年份
百万吨标煤
生物柴油
醇类燃料
电
天然气
油品
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
万吨
标煤
低碳交通能源需求
其他
生物柴油
醇类燃料
电
天然气
油品
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mt-
C
CO2 Emission in China
Baseline
Policy
ELC
城市发展的理念：道路
斯德歌尔摩：在欧洲许多城市，自行车、步行在逐渐形成主要交通方式
Energy Demand in Beijing, BaU
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Year
Gcal
Diesel
Gasoline
NGS
LPG
Elec
Energy Demand in Beijing, TG
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Year
Gcal
Diesel
Gasoline
NGS
LPG
Elec
Energy Demand in Beijing, CF
0
1000000
2000000
3000000
4000000
5000000
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Year
Gcal
Diesel
Gasoline
NGS
LPG
Elec
Energy demand of transport in
Beijing could be nearly stable
after 2010 even though vehicle
number will increase a lot
CO Emission
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
年份
t-C
O BaU
TG
CF
NOx Emission
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000
年份
t-N
Ox
BaU
TG
CF
CO2 Emission
0
2
4
6
8
10
年分
M t-
C BaU
TG
CF
28 key technologies in the
enhanced low carbon
scenario in China
No. Sector Technology Description Note
1 High energy
efficiency
equipment
High efficiency furnace,
kiln, waste heat recovery
system, high efficiency
process technologies,
advanced electric motor
Nearly in
market
2 New manufacture
process technology
for cement and steel
3 CCS In cement, steel making,
refinery, ethylene
manufacture
4 Super high efficiency
diesel vehicle
Advanced diesel hybrid
engine
5 Electric car
6 Fuel cell car
7 High efficiency
aircraft
30% higher energy
efficiency
8 Bio-fuel aircraft
9 Super high efficiency
air-conditioner
With COP>7
10 LED lighting
11 In house renewable
energy system
Solar PV/Wind/Solar hot
water and space heating
12 Heat pumps Mature
13 High isolation
building
Mature
14 High efficiency
electric appliance
Mature
before 2030
15 IGCC/Poly-
Generation
With efficiency above 55%
16 IGCC/Fuel cell With efficiency above 60%
17 On shore Wind Mature
18 Off shore wind Mature
before 2020
19 Solar PV
20 Solar Thermal
21 4th Generation
Nuclear
22 Advanced NGCC With efficiency above 65%
23 Biomass IGCC
24 CCS in power
generation
25 Second generation
bio-ethanol
26 Bio-diesel Vehicles, ships, vessels
27 Grid Smart grid
28 Circulating
tecnologies
Recycle, reuse,
reducing material
use
Alternative fuels
Power
generation
Building
Transport
Industry
technology
四、影响电动汽车发展的主要制约因素分析
4. Analysis Major Constraints Factors 3.3 电动汽车实现经济性的趋势分析 Trend Analysis on EVs
中国低碳情景下的电动汽车发展目标
Target under low carbon scenario in China
中国电动汽车发展目标是基于中国低碳发展情景设置的。
未来中国的小汽车结构将随着技术进步和低碳发展发生很大变化，普通汽柴油小汽车占比从目前的61%逐步减少2030年的2%；电动汽车占比从目前的很少量到2030年的27%。
按照中国电动汽车发展目标，到2020年，中国电动汽车销售市场将占到全球电动汽车销售市场的20%，2030年这个比例将提高到28%。
五、电动汽车发展技术路线图
5. Research Technology Roadmap
五、电动汽车发展技术路线图
5. Electric Car Roadmap
六、电动汽车发展政策路线图建议 6. Suggesting Policy Roadmap
Keyword: Transition – mitigation to reach some climate change
targets
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100-5
0
5
10
15
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100-5
0
5
10
15
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100-5
0
5
10
15
N=76N=27
Category III
(< 440-485 ppm CO2)
Category II
(< 400-440 ppm CO2)
without neg.
emissions
with neg.
emissions
Em
issio
ns (
GtC
)
Category I
(< 400 ppm CO2)
N=19
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
百万
吨碳
CO2排放量
Baseline
LC
ELC
2度情景
Is This
Real?
Feasible? Is This
Real?
Feasible?
What is the role of technologies
in the mitigation?
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Building Transport Industry
Energy efficiency improvement index
2010
2030
2050
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Building Transport Industry
CO2 emission improvement index
2010
2030
2050
59
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
MtS
O2
SO2 Emission
BaU
LC
ELC
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
10
00
ton
Black Carbon Emission in China
BaU
LowCarbon
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mt
NOx Emission in China, ELC scenario
Other
Power generation
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mto
n
PM2.5 Emission
Other
Power generation
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
ton
Mercury Emission
Other
Power generation