committee members: dr. oleg v. shipin (chairperson) prof. c. visvanathan dr. theo ebbers committee...
TRANSCRIPT
Committee Members:Dr. Oleg V. Shipin (Chairperson)Prof. C. VisvanathanDr. Theo Ebbers
Committee Members:Dr. Oleg V. Shipin (Chairperson)Prof. C. VisvanathanDr. Theo Ebbers by
SHIRINA AFROZE by
SHIRINA AFROZE
CUMULATIVE EFFECT ASSESSMENT: ANALYSIS OF INTERRELATIONSHIPS
AMONG DRIVERS AND VALUED ECOSYSTEM COMPONENTS
IN MULTIFUNCTIONAL WETLANDS
CUMULATIVE EFFECT ASSESSMENT: ANALYSIS OF INTERRELATIONSHIPS
AMONG DRIVERS AND VALUED ECOSYSTEM COMPONENTS
IN MULTIFUNCTIONAL WETLANDS
System of assessment of all relevant environmental effects which result from ONE specific projectSystem of assessment of all relevant environmental effects which result from ONE specific project
EENVIRONMENT NVIRONMENT IIMPACT MPACT AASSESSMENTSSESSMENT
SSTRATEGIC TRATEGIC EENVIRONMENTAL NVIRONMENTAL AASSESSMENTSSESSMENTSystem of incorporating environmental considerations
into Policies, Plans and ProgramsSystem of incorporating environmental considerations
into Policies, Plans and Programs
Are EIA and SEA not enough?
Are EIA and SEA not enough?
WE DO NOT KNOW HOW EXACTLY WE IMPACT
AND DAMAGE
THE ENVIRONMENT
WE DO NOT KNOW HOW EXACTLY WE IMPACT
AND DAMAGE
THE ENVIRONMENT
ONE OF OUR PROBLEMS
ONE OF OUR PROBLEMS
METHODOLOGYMETHODOLOGY
Inherent and chronic lack of information, environmental
data sets, on majority of ecosystems
Inherent and chronic lack of information, environmental
data sets, on majority of ecosystems
Ironically, most of the world’s ecosystems, biodiversity and human population is in the developing world
Ironically, most of the world’s ecosystems, biodiversity and human population is in the developing world
MAJOR STUMBLING BLOCK
FOR CEAMAJOR STUMBLING BLOCK
FOR CEA
Use considerably increased number of environmental indicators and drivers for CEA
Use considerably increased number of environmental indicators and drivers for CEA
Use methodologies of expert opinion and Participatory Rural Appraisal- -“Local community opinion”
Use methodologies of expert opinion and Participatory Rural Appraisal- -“Local community opinion”
PROPOSED SOLUTIONPROPOSED SOLUTION
WHAT IS THIS TOOL WHAT IS THIS TOOL
OF OF
CUMULATIVE EFFECTS CUMULATIVE EFFECTS
ASSESSMENT ?ASSESSMENT ?
WHAT IS THIS TOOL WHAT IS THIS TOOL
OF OF
CUMULATIVE EFFECTS CUMULATIVE EFFECTS
ASSESSMENT ?ASSESSMENT ?
CEA CEA TOOL TOOL THE SYSTEM OF ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM OF ANALYSIS OF ALL EFFECTSALL EFFECTS (IMPACTS) (IMPACTS)
ON A SPECIFIC ENVIRONMENT (ECOSYSTEM, etc) ON A SPECIFIC ENVIRONMENT (ECOSYSTEM, etc)
CEA CEA TOOL TOOL THE SYSTEM OF ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM OF ANALYSIS OF ALL EFFECTSALL EFFECTS (IMPACTS) (IMPACTS)
ON A SPECIFIC ENVIRONMENT (ECOSYSTEM, etc) ON A SPECIFIC ENVIRONMENT (ECOSYSTEM, etc)
It comprisesIt comprises
Statistical processing of interrelationships of drivers of Statistical processing of interrelationships of drivers of change resulting in the change resulting in the totaltotal cumulative impact cumulative impact
It makes use of It makes use of Expert opinionExpert opinion “ “Local community opinion” Local community opinion”
= Participatory Rural Appraisal= Participatory Rural Appraisal Existing data setsExisting data sets Rapid EIA, Rapid EIA, etc etc
It comprisesIt comprises
Statistical processing of interrelationships of drivers of Statistical processing of interrelationships of drivers of change resulting in the change resulting in the totaltotal cumulative impact cumulative impact
It makes use of It makes use of Expert opinionExpert opinion “ “Local community opinion” Local community opinion”
= Participatory Rural Appraisal= Participatory Rural Appraisal Existing data setsExisting data sets Rapid EIA, Rapid EIA, etc etc
MAIN OBJECTIVEMAIN OBJECTIVEMAIN OBJECTIVEMAIN OBJECTIVE
To identify relevant sets of:
direct and indirect drivers exerting impacts and Valued Ecosystem Components - VECs of
wetlands considering services provided by VECs’ multifunctions
To identify relevant sets of:
direct and indirect drivers exerting impacts and Valued Ecosystem Components - VECs of
wetlands considering services provided by VECs’ multifunctions
SPECIFIC OBJECTIVESSPECIFIC OBJECTIVESSPECIFIC OBJECTIVESSPECIFIC OBJECTIVES
Analyze
(i) interrelationships among the identified drivers
(ii) the most influencing drivers for changes (iii) the driver-VECs interrelationships (v) Vulnerabilities of services performed by wetland VECs
Analyze
(i) interrelationships among the identified drivers
(ii) the most influencing drivers for changes (iii) the driver-VECs interrelationships (v) Vulnerabilities of services performed by wetland VECs
HOI AN RIVER BASIN AND DELTA, C. VIET NAM HOI AN RIVER BASIN AND DELTA, C. VIET NAM
Study Area 1Study Area 1
HOI AN CITY IS A MAJOR TOURIST ATTRACTIONHOI AN CITY IS A MAJOR TOURIST ATTRACTION
ANNUAL FLOODS RIGHT IN HISTORICAL CENTERANNUAL FLOODS RIGHT IN HISTORICAL CENTER
PARTICIPATORY RURAL APPRAISAL PARTICIPATORY RURAL APPRAISAL OR “LOCAL COMMUNITY OPINION” IN VIET NAM and LAOS OR “LOCAL COMMUNITY OPINION” IN VIET NAM and LAOS
PARTICIPATORY RURAL APPRAISAL PARTICIPATORY RURAL APPRAISAL OR “LOCAL COMMUNITY OPINION” IN VIET NAM and LAOS OR “LOCAL COMMUNITY OPINION” IN VIET NAM and LAOS
RESULTSRESULTS
RAPID ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENTOF THE MANGROVE ECOSYSTEM IN HOI AN DELTA
RAPID ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ASSESSMENTOF THE MANGROVE ECOSYSTEM IN HOI AN DELTA
Driver Types Direct Drivers Indirect Drivers
Physico-chemical
Agricultural practices
Agricultural land erosionDegradation of soil qualityLand use changeGroundwater quality Economic values
Agro-chemical pollution
Degradation of soil qualityGroundwater quality
Aquaculture Land use changeGroundwater qualityEconomic values
Bridge construction
Sedimentation (Accretion)Changes in water flow regimesFisheries
Deforestation Loss of biodiversityExtinction of speciesLand erosion
Drought Agricultural practicesEconomic value
Erosion Sedimentation (and/or Accretion)Deforestation Turbidity
Fishing Diversion structures (e.g., dams, barrages etc.)Agriculture and Water Pollution Economic value
Flooding Water qualitySettlement or displacementEconomic values
Hydropower and water diversion development
Biodiversity (e.g., due to change in land use)FishingSettlement or displacementLand use changeEconomic values
Industries Water and soil qualityFishingEmployment
Irrigation Erosion of irrigation canalsSedimentationLand use changeGroundwater table recharge (Aquifer recharge)
Land pollution Soil/land contaminationGroundwater depletion
Land use change Settlement or displacementAgricultural practicesEconomic valuesEmployment
Mining industry Soil characteristicsGroundwater quality
Natural disasters Agricultural practicesLand Erosion
Over exploitation of resources
Agricultural practices (e.g., crop yields)Habitat lossBiodiversity loss (due to tree logging)
Rainfall FloodingSedimentationGroundwater table recharge
Salinity River water qualityLand degradationMangrove depletionGroundwater depletion
Sedimentation Mangrove depletionTurbidity
Shrimp culture Land use changeAgricultural practices (e.g., crop yields)Groundwater qualityEconomic values
Water flow SedimentationFisheriesRainfallFlooding
Water logging Agricultural practicesLand use change
Water pollution Water qualityHypoxia (dropping of DO level) and Anoxia
LIST OF IDENTIFIED DRIVERSLIST OF IDENTIFIED DRIVERS
Cua Dai bridge
STORY OF A BRIDGEAS AN UNACCOUNTED
DRIVER-STRESSOR
STORY OF A BRIDGEAS AN UNACCOUNTED
DRIVER-STRESSOR
APPEARANCE OF A BRIDGE IS A NEW DRIVER FOR THE ENVIRONMENT
APPEARANCE OF A BRIDGE IS A NEW DRIVER FOR THE ENVIRONMENT
IT MY LEAD TO SEDIMENTATION RESULTING IN NEW ISLANDSIT MY LEAD TO SEDIMENTATION RESULTING IN NEW ISLANDS
THREATENED VALUED ECOSYSTEM COMPONENT SEAGRASS BEDS + SEA TURTLES MAY DISAPPEAR
THREATENED VALUED ECOSYSTEM COMPONENT SEAGRASS BEDS + SEA TURTLES MAY DISAPPEAR
SOME SOME VECVECS MAY ATTAIN A SPECIAL STATUS S MAY ATTAIN A SPECIAL STATUS DUE TO THE CRITICAL DUE TO THE CRITICAL VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITYSOME SOME VECVECS MAY ATTAIN A SPECIAL STATUS S MAY ATTAIN A SPECIAL STATUS DUE TO THE CRITICAL DUE TO THE CRITICAL VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY
A symbol of the Vietnamese environmentA symbol of the Vietnamese environment
Saola deerSaola deer
May be extinct in the Quang Nam river basinMay be extinct in the Quang Nam river basin
DIGRAPH OF WETLAND DRIVERS FOR HOI AN BASIN, VIETNAM
DIGRAPH OF WETLAND DRIVERS FOR HOI AN BASIN, VIETNAM
Mind-boggling complexity of real life interrelationshipsMind-boggling complexity of real life interrelationships
AQUACULTURE AND OVER-FISHING ARE MAJOR STRESSORS But also these are positive impacts on Society AQUACULTURE AND OVER-FISHING ARE MAJOR STRESSORS But also these are positive impacts on Society
MATRIX WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONGLY CONNECTED DRIVERS IN HOI AN RIVER BASIN
MATRIX WITH CLUSTERS OF STRONGLY CONNECTED DRIVERS IN HOI AN RIVER BASIN
Hydropower development is not strongly connected to other driversHydropower development is not strongly connected to other drivers
It is unlikely to be involved in cumulative effects, it has a high, but not synergistic effect It is unlikely to be involved in cumulative effects, it has a high, but not synergistic effect
CONDENSATION DIGRAPHS OF THE STRONGLY CONNECTED DRIVERS
CONDENSATION DIGRAPHS OF THE STRONGLY CONNECTED DRIVERS
Nam Ngum River BasinNam Ngum River Basin
SundarbansSundarbansHoi An River BasinHoi An River Basin
Distilled, clear-cut and obvious relationships Distilled, clear-cut and obvious relationships
DEGREE OF CORRELATION AMONG DRIVERS OF NAM NGUM RIVER BASIN, LAOS
DEGREE OF CORRELATION AMONG DRIVERS OF NAM NGUM RIVER BASIN, LAOS
INTERRELATIONSHIPS:Positive (directly proportional) and Negative (inversely proportional) INTERRELATIONSHIPS:Positive (directly proportional) and Negative (inversely proportional)
agricultural practice
positively connected with flooding
agricultural practice
positively connected with floodingnegatively connected
with over-fishing
negatively connected
with over-fishing
DRIVERS Aquaculture
Agriculture Pollution Land usechange
Flooding Drought
Aquaculture 1.000 .361 -.169 -.205 .292 -.183
Agriculture .361 1.000 .534 -.209 .619 .281
Pollution -.169 .534 1.000 -.354 .274 -.104
Land use change -.205 -.209 -.354 1.000 -.082 .395
Flooding .292 .619 .274 -.082 1.000 .500
Drought -.183 .281 -.104 .395 .500 1.000
QUANTIFIED INTERRELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN STRONGLY CONNECTED DRIVERS
QUANTIFIED INTERRELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN STRONGLY CONNECTED DRIVERS
Red colored values indicate strong connectedness Red colored values indicate strong connectedness
* computed by Spearman’s Rank Correlation* computed by Spearman’s Rank Correlation
0
20
40
60
80
100
Nipa palmtrees
Fisheries Aquatic andterrestrial
flora
Aquatic andterrestrial
fauna
Surace water Land quality Agriculture Settlement
Per
cent
age
(%) o
f im
pact
s
Hydropower Dam
Landuse changeTourism
RainfallIndustries
Mining IndustryWater logging
Agriculture
AquacultureFishing
Land pollutionWater pollution
Invasive sp.
IrrigationDeforestation
SalinitySedimentaion
FloodingErosion
IMPACTS (%) ON INDIVIDUAL VECs BY DIFFERENT DRIVERS IN HOI AN RIVER BASIN
IMPACTS (%) ON INDIVIDUAL VECs BY DIFFERENT DRIVERS IN HOI AN RIVER BASIN
Some drivers are much more impacting than other Some drivers are much more impacting than other
40 60 80 100
cumulative effects (%)
Sundarbans
Nam Ngum river basin
Hoi An river basin
94.9%
86.1%
92.6%
CUMULATIVE EFFECTS (%) BY THE MOST INFLUENCING DRIVERS
CUMULATIVE EFFECTS (%) BY THE MOST INFLUENCING DRIVERS
* computed by Principal Components Analysis* computed by Principal Components Analysis
The biggest effects are due to the strongly connected and most influencing driversThe biggest effects are due to the strongly connected and most influencing drivers
CUMULATIVE EFFECTS (%) ON
INDIVIDUAL VECs BY DRIVERS
CUMULATIVE EFFECTS (%) ON
INDIVIDUAL VECs BY DRIVERS
* computed by Principal Components Analysis* computed by Principal Components Analysis
Few strongly connected and influencing drivers are responsible for the bulk of the cumulative impactFew strongly connected and influencing drivers are responsible for the bulk of the cumulative impact
0
25
50
75
100
Nipa palm Fisheries Surfacewater
Heriteriafomes
Mangroves Fisheries Surfacewater
Aquaticresources
Socioeconomic
Hoi An delta Sundarbans Nam Ngum basin
Strongly connected and influencing drivers Other drivers
VECsHoi An river delta
Nypa palm forest Fisheries Surface water
96.7 90.8 89.3
SundarbansHeriteria fomes Mangroves Fisheries
95.9 93.3 90.7
Nam Ngum river basin
Surface water Aquatic resources Socio-economic
85.2 80.3 69.5
MOST VULNERABLE VECs IN TERMS OF CUMULATIVE EFFECT VALUES (%)
MOST VULNERABLE VECs IN TERMS OF CUMULATIVE EFFECT VALUES (%)
Few strongly connected and influencing drivers are responsible for the highest vulnerabilityFew strongly connected and influencing drivers are responsible for the highest vulnerability
CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS
Assessment of interrelationships between drivers showed that despite identical drivers for the areas, the drivers’ interrelationships varied significantly
Assessment of interrelationships between drivers showed that despite identical drivers for the areas, the drivers’ interrelationships varied significantly
(i) important insights can be obtained, showing which impacts are involved in active interaction and may have
cumulative synergy(ii) diverse wetlands show similar patterns
(i) important insights can be obtained, showing which impacts are involved in active interaction and may have
cumulative synergy(ii) diverse wetlands show similar patterns
The CEA tool was proposed to assess cumulative effects in the environment
The CEA tool was proposed to assess cumulative effects in the environment
Assessment of interrelationships between individual drivers and Valued Ecosystem Components (or resources) allowed for quantification of resource vulnerability
Assessment of interrelationships between individual drivers and Valued Ecosystem Components (or resources) allowed for quantification of resource vulnerability
The usefulness of the tool was demonstrated in three different areas showing phenomena which were not obvious previously
The developed tool can be factored into further conceptual development of the universal CEA theory
The usefulness of the tool was demonstrated in three different areas showing phenomena which were not obvious previously
The developed tool can be factored into further conceptual development of the universal CEA theory
THANK YOUTHANK YOU
I did my bitI did my bit
It is a humble step to solve one of
major problems
It is a humble step to solve one of
major problems