Commitment to salmon: using Bayesian modeling to create a

sustainable fisheries management tool based on commitment of

fishermen

Päivi Haapasaari, Timo P. Karjalainen, Kalle Reinikainen, University of Oulu, Finland; and Catherine Michielsens,

Game and Fisheries Research Institute, Finland

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Game and Fisheries Research Institute

International Baltic Sea Fisheries Commission

Salmon Action Plan (SAP) program, aims at

strengthening the salmon stocks of the Baltic Sea

Finland’s goal: to restore the salmon stocks of

Bothnian Bay rivers

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SAP-rivers in Finland

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Success in restoration

presumes commitment

of all the actors,

including fishermen!

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* What is the

role of fishermen

in the restoration

process? ?

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Research project Bireme-SAP

Aimed at opening the

black box of fishermen,

making their activities

and thoughts more

transparent,

and more predictable.

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Our method:

Linking social aspects with biological factors,

through probabilistic Bayesian belief networks

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Commitment

?

? ? ?

Catch

Probabilistic network

”Commitment”

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Commitment

Cultural and historical background of fishermen

Belief in SAP TrustSense of justice

Catch

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Commitment

Cultural and historical background of fishermen

Belief in SAP TrustSense of justice

Catch

Commitment action

Knowledge action

Economic intrest

Salmon

abundance

Management action

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Management actions:

Cheese slicer

Setting quotas

ITQ

Releasing wild salmon

Focusing on obligatory reared salmon

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Knowledge actions:

Letter home

Symposiums

Media

Informing in fishing licenses

Informing via locals

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Commitment actions:

Common meetings

Visits

Round table

Contact persons

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Commitment

Cultural and historical background of fishermen

Belief in SAP TrustSense of justice

Catch

Commitment action

Knowledge action

Economic intrest

Salmon

abundance

Management action

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Some preliminary results:

Belief in SAP…

*Belief in the river conditions of the potential salmon rivers is low among all fishermen

* Belief in wild salmon in catch is low among Kiiminkijoki river mouth fishermen

* Other problems than fishing are considered most actual threats to the potential salmon rivers

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How to increase beliefs?

Knowledge action

Belief in wild SAP-salmon

Belief in river conditions

* professionals > media, fishing licenses

* semi-professionals > media, via locals

* household fishers > via locals

* recreational fishermen > symposiums, licenses

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Some preliminary results:

Trust…

* much distrust between actors

*trust in regulation and research correlates with sense of justice: those who feel being treated unjustly, do not trust regulation and research

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How to increase trust?

Commitment action

Trust in actors

* round table

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Some preliminary results:

Sense of justice…

* professional fishers

* recreational fishermen along the rivers Tornionjoki and Simojoki

…feel being treated unjustly

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How to increase sense of justice?

Management action

Sense of justice

* professional fishermen, semi-professionals

and household fishermen: cheese-slicer

* semi-professionals: focusing on obligatory

reared salmon

* recreational fishers: setting quotas

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Commitment

Cultural and historical background of fishermen

Belief in SAP TrustSense of justice

Catch

Commitment action

Knowledge action

Economic intrest

Salmon

abundance

Management action

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Conclusion: How to get the best result in commitment, according to our modeling?

* Trying to increase commitment by creating a round table working group

* Intensifying the use of media and fishing licenses in informing

* Restricting fishing equally from each group

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Why Bayesian modeling?

* makes it possible to examine the strength of causal relationships, and to evaluate which factors are most important to maintain or create commitment

* the network allows to examine hypothetical situations, and to predict changes in commitment when affecting any of the factors within the network

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Why Bayesian modeling?

* gives us quantitative data to express the strength of fishermen’s commitment and the effect of this on catch

* makes it possible to link the information flow of the social network to the biological network, and via this to deduce the effects of the activities of the fishermen on the salmon stocks

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Function of the model:

A tool of

planning and decision making

in the restoration process and fisheries management in general

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