comments on assignment 1 n start any assignment with a clear statement of purpose n you must...
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Comments on Assignment 1 start any assignment with a clear start any assignment with a clear
statement of purposestatement of purpose you must DEMONSTRATE a point, not you must DEMONSTRATE a point, not
simply ASSERT it.simply ASSERT it.– NOT: Problem statement is clear/unclearNOT: Problem statement is clear/unclear– BUT: Authors clearly identify their problem BUT: Authors clearly identify their problem
as . . .as . . . Look more carefully at Look more carefully at data analysisdata analysis
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Obstacles to Making social research “scientific”
Some social issues involve Some social issues involve NORMATIVE questionsNORMATIVE questions
Inability to achieve EXPERIMENTAL Inability to achieve EXPERIMENTAL controls---typically requires use of controls---typically requires use of STATISTICAL controlsSTATISTICAL controls
So, why persist in trying???So, why persist in trying???– To assess the To assess the relative contributionrelative contribution of of
various possible (or apparent) factorsvarious possible (or apparent) factors
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CONCEPTUALIZATION(Theory Construction)
assumptionsassumptions– a problem has been identified clearlya problem has been identified clearly– kind of problemkind of problem is one whose goal is to is one whose goal is to
account for why a particular set of social account for why a particular set of social phenomena is patterned as it is.phenomena is patterned as it is.
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Some Basic Questions I’ll Address
Why must the theories we formulate be Why must the theories we formulate be thought through very carefully?thought through very carefully?
WhatWhat kind of theory kind of theory construction will be construction will be most useful to the conduct of such most useful to the conduct of such research?research?
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The Essence of Theory concepts (constructs) linked via concepts (constructs) linked via
propositionspropositions propositions are essentially statements propositions are essentially statements
of relationship between 2 or more of relationship between 2 or more concepts that can take on more than concepts that can take on more than one value (VARIABLES)one value (VARIABLES)
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Propositions and Hypotheses
Hypotheses are propositions that are Hypotheses are propositions that are stated in TESTABLE formstated in TESTABLE form
best developed hypos. specify the best developed hypos. specify the FORM of relationship anticipatedFORM of relationship anticipated
various forms of relationship among various forms of relationship among social phenomena are conceivablesocial phenomena are conceivable
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Positive relationships
Population growth rate
(X)
Deforestation
rate
(Y)
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Negative relationships
Economic status of county population
(X)
Toxic release
exposure rate
(Y)
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Many relationships between social phenomena are Nonlinear
(like those involving development)
Development (X)
Life
expectancy
(Y)
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What about???
Development (X)
Fertility(Y)
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What about???
Development
Income Inequality
Kuznets hypothesis
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Deforestation rate
Urbanization level
Curvilinear relationship example from the Deforestation
paper???
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Significance of these alternative forms of relationship???
many standard statistical tests assume many standard statistical tests assume the existence of LINEAR relationshipsthe existence of LINEAR relationships
use them and you risk finding no or only use them and you risk finding no or only a weak relationship when in fact . . .a weak relationship when in fact . . .
moral: must think very carefully about moral: must think very carefully about what FORM of relationship is likely to what FORM of relationship is likely to exist. exist.
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The issue of causal ordering
Symmetrical vs. Asymmetrical
X
Y
XY
(Independent) (Dependent)
(covariation)
the basis for EXPLANATION
useful for PREDICTION
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Obstacles to demonstrating causal relationships
Reciprocal causation (toxic releases Reciprocal causation (toxic releases study)study)
existence of multiple correlates of an existence of multiple correlates of an outcome (toxic releases study)outcome (toxic releases study)
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Multiple correlates problem creates opening for rebuttals like:
NOT: X(race) Y (exposure)
X
Z
YBUT:
OR: ZX
Yclass
Land value
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Solution to this Obstacle???
During data analysis, control During data analysis, control for the influence of other for the influence of other phenomena that might be phenomena that might be related to both X and Y and related to both X and Y and contaminate their observed contaminate their observed relationshiprelationship
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Implications: The most useful kind of theory construction will:
identify a system of variables that are identify a system of variables that are relatively open to one another’s relatively open to one another’s influence influence
specify the CAUSAL ORDERING specify the CAUSAL ORDERING among them that is anticipatedamong them that is anticipated
identify the FORMS of relationship identify the FORMS of relationship thought to exist.thought to exist.
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The Flow Chart/ A useful tool
EXOGENOUS INTERVENING OUTCOME
X1
X2
X3
X4
X5
X6
+
++
+
-
-
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Actions of people in
clearing land, harvesting timber or minerals, building roads,
expanding cities
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EXAMPLE: Interstate Variation in
Residence-based abortion ratesin the late 20th C
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Assignment: Look closely at problem statement
and conceptualization of: Haranczak, Kobos and Elgie. Student Haranczak, Kobos and Elgie. Student
attitudes toward capital punishmentattitudes toward capital punishment Baser et al. Attitudes toward condom Baser et al. Attitudes toward condom
availability programsavailability programs Sparrow and O’Brien. Attitudes toward Sparrow and O’Brien. Attitudes toward
impeachment of a presidentimpeachment of a president
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---Suggest some changes that you think would strengthen the conceptual model.---Revise the flow chart to reflect your thinking.