colliers international - market overview croatia h2 2018

Summary

Recent Trends

Boosted by positive investor sentiment and attractive returns, in

2018 the total transaction volume of commercial real estate

exceeded EUR 800 million, which is more than double the

investment volume in 2017. Income-producing retail and hotel

properties were in focus of investors while the yield compressed

for prime office and industrial properties. Development activity

across majority of sectors is still much below pre-crisis levels,

which has most effects on the prices in residential sector.

Market Prognosis

Despite shortage in quality product, 2019 is

expected to reach 2018 investment volume. We

expect continuation of high investment volumes in

hotel sector. Office sector is expected to take

higher market share than last years. Warehousing

& logistics sector, the least developed CRE sector,

has the most upside potential in terms of

development and investment activity in the

Croatian CRE industry.

MARKET OVERVIEW REPORT CROATIA

H2 2018 OVERVIEW & 2019 FORECAST

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Economic Overview 3

Office Market 4

Retail Market 5

Industrial / Logistics Market 6

HTL Market 7

Investment Market 8

Residential Market 9

Contents





3 Market Overview | H2 2018 | Croatia | Colliers International

Summary & Prognosis

Croatian GDP grew by 2.3% in Q4 2018 according to Croatian Bureau of

Statistics, which is a 18th consecutive quarter of economic growth. GDP

growth in 2018 was 2.6%.

Focus Economics panellists see GDP growth in 2019 at 2.7%.

Unemployment should further decrease, which should, together with strong

tourism, support private consumption. Moreover, growth in fixed investment

will likely accelerate thanks to stronger EU funds inflows. The inflation

should reach 1.7% and 1.9% in 2019 and 2020 respectively.

The share of non-performing loans (NPLs) in Croatia’s banking system was

estimated at 10.1% in 2018 with expectation of further decreasing to 9.1%

in 2019 and 8.9% in 2020. We expect a continuation of strong investor

interest for NPLs portfolios secured by real estate.

With Agrokor’s settlement plan between the company creditors reached,

one problem of the Croatian economy has been solved, but another one

emerged. Another strategic Croatian company Uljanik has been having

problems with insolvency. The government, in attempt to save this private-

owned shipbuilding company and its 4,000 employees, started extensive

search for a new strategic partner that could lift the company back to its feet.

In addition, the government offered state guarantees to Uljanik’s clients and

took upon itself to cover up to 50% of Uljanik’s restructuring costs. Active

guarantees in H2 2018 amounted to approx. EUR 800 million. New strategic

partner was found in Split based Brodosplit, another Croatian shipbuilding

company.

Major credit ratings for Croatia in February 2019 stand at: Fitch BB+

(positive outlook), Standard & Poor’s BB+ (positive outlook) and Moody’s

Ba2 (stable outlook). Standard & Poor’s was the last of the three major credit

rating agencies to upgrade Croatia’s outlook from stable to positive on the

grounds of a budget surplus and steady economic growth.

Although the investor interest is strong, administrative and bureaucratic

barriers as well as lack of real structural reforms continue to prevent the full

investment potential in Croatian commercial real estate sector.

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Building permits issued & planned value of works (€)

Planned value of works (€) Issued building permits

2.4

3.5

2.92.7 2.7

2.5 2.3

Economic Growth (GDP, annual var. in %)

-0.5

-1.1

1.1

1.6 1.71.9 1.9

Inflation (CPI, annual variation in %, aop)

1.0

3.43.6 3.5

3.02.6 2.5

Private Consumption (annual var. in %)

17.6

14.712.2

9.4 8.4 7.9 7.9

Unemployment (% of active population, eop)

Source: Colliers International / Focus Economics Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics

Economic Overview


Supply

Total office stock in Zagreb totalled approx. 1.34 million m² in H2 2018 out

of which approx. 45% was in Class A. Clustering of office buildings has

continued in Business District East (around Radnička street).

There are several office buildings under construction. The D3 building of

Centar 2000 complex was finished in H2 2018. The building comprises of

4* business hotel and 8,800 m² GLA of office space and is located in

Business District East (near Radnička).

New projects are strongly oriented towards superior quality, enhanced

employee well-being and environmental friendliness, which developers are

increasingly looking to demonstrate through the obtainment of

corresponding certificates such as LEED, BREAM or WELL.

Demand

Demand for office spaces remained the strongest for A class buildings in

CBD and Business District East. Majority of leases recorded in H2 2018

were for office premises larger than 500 m². The market still lacks premises

larger than 1,500 m². Strong demand for larger office premises comes

predominantly from ICT sector.

Workplace is becoming a crucial factor to attract quality workforce therefore

companies (occupiers) are putting more effort to create appealing working

environment in order to prevent employees outflow.

Vacancy Rate and Rents

Average vacancy rate remained at 4.5% in H2 2018. Following the delivery

of existing pipeline project, we expect the vacancy levels will increase,

especially in buildings in secondary locations. Average rents are still stable.

Projects under construction

The following large projects are under construction in Zagreb:

> Developer VMD GRUPA is constructing a new office building in Otok

business district. The scheme is scheduled to be completed in H1 2019

and is already fully pre-let.

> First office building in GTC’s Matrix Office Park should be finished in

Q1 2019. The project will comprise two office buildings each

totalling approx. 10,000 m² of leasable area. Matrix will be designed

and constructed according to the highest green building standards

featuring a LEED Gold certification. Matrix office park is located in

edge of Business District East.

> HOK (Croatian insurance company) is investing in R21 project, mixed-

use development in Radnička Street. The project will consist of 17,000

m² GLA office space and a 150-key hotel (signed franchise agreement

with Hilton Garden Inn). Approx. 90% of the total leasable office area has

been let to a single tenant. Completion of the project is planned for H1

2019.

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2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

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Zagreb Office Market Stock and Vacancy

Total Stock e.o.y Yearly addition

Vacancy

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Croatian office sector: Building permits issued & planned floor area

Floor area Issued building permits

Source: Colliers International

Zagreb Office Market - Key figures H2 2018

Total Stock in m2 1,340,000

Vacancy Rate 4.5%

Prime Headline Rent €14-15/m2

Average Monthly Rent Class A €12/m2

Average Monthly Rent Class B €8-€10/m2

Office Market

Source: Croatian Bureau of Statistics



Summary

Retail demand is stimulated by positive macroeconomic momentum and

growing consumer spending. Potential risks in the medium term, on the

other hand, include negative demographic trends and impact from e-

commerce.

In H2 2018 majority of expansion was related to food retailers. Occupiers

demand remains firm and comes from all types of occupiers; local and

international brands already present on the Croatian market as well as from

market newcomers.

High street locations and prime shopping centres continue to be the most

sought-after premises. Big-box retailers have expansion plans across the

country. For them the key is to find available land with adequate surface,

accessibility and visibility, suitable for their typical stand-alone objects.

Shopping centres are expanding (e.g. Arena Centar) or reviving their offer

(e.g. King Cross). The largest new shopping centre in the country delivered

to the market in H2 2018 is Max City in Pula. Max City is also the largest

shopping centre in Istria region. It has 29,000 m² of NLA. The tenant mix

consists of more than 100 international and local brands. The project’s

investor is Istracement Nekretnine d.o.o. and the investment totalled EUR

53 million.

Vacancy & rents

Vacancy rate in prime shopping centres is below 4% while weighted

average rent currently stands around EUR 19/m²/month. The base rents in

prime shopping centres can reach up to € EUR 50/m²/month for smaller

premises (up to 150 m², rents depend on the sector).

High street rent levels range from EUR 30/m² to EUR 120/m² greatly

depending on micro location, size, visibility and window display width.


> Prime shopping centre Arena Centar, Zagreb, expanded its NLA for

5,000 m² in H2 2018 by rearranging the premises on the first and second

floor. The owner of Arena Centar NEPI Rockcastle is investing in a new

8,000 m² NLA retail park next to their current scheme. The opening of a

new retail park outside the western section of the centre is scheduled for

2019. This should further enhance the entire shopping destination.

> Project “Z” in the west part of Zagreb (Špansko), is currently under construction. It will consists of shopping mall, retail park, standalone supermarket, drive in restaurant in total gross area of more than 75,000 m². Shopping center, as central part of the project, is based on fashion & entertainment mix with cinema, supermarket, modern food court and caffe bars that together with retail park amounts to more than 31,000, m² GLA. The project is being undertaken by a group of local investors.

> AM PS Delta Real Estate Ltd. is developing a new retail park in Poreč.

The same developer has already built Pula City Mall and is a member of

the Croatian subsidiary of MID Bau, one of the leading developers on the

regional market. The retail park should have around 8,400 m² NLA and

completion is planned for June 2019.

Zagreb Shopping Centre – Factsheet H2 2018

Total shopping centre stock* in m² 490,000

Prime shopping centre / weighted average rent (excl. turnover rent)

€19/m²

Prime shopping centre vacancy rate <4%

2.4

4.0

4.7

3.73.4

3.0 2.9

2.4

3.5

2.9 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.3

Retail Sales & GDP growth (%)

Retail Sales (annual variation in %)

Economic Growth (rhs, GDP, annual var. in %)

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Croatian retail sector: Building permits issued & planned floor area


Retail Market

Source: Colliers International *SC stock excludes Outlet centres, Big-boxes and

department stores

Source: Colliers International / Focus Economics



Supply

Warehousing & logistics sector, the least developed CRE sector, has the

most upside potential in terms of development and investment activity in the

Croatian CRE industry.

We are currently seeing a return of developers as a result of strong demand,

lack of modern supply and growth of e-commerce. This is in line with global

trends advances in technology. To further boost the development in this

sector the government should change the calculation of communal

contribution fees which are currently charged per cubic meter / volume.

Major obstacles for new developments are high land prices, communal

contribution, rising construction costs and lack of scalable land plots on

good locations.

February 2019 saw completion of Atlantic Group’s new logistics distribution

centre (LDC) located in Meridian 16 Business Park in Velika Gorica (largest

satellite town of the Zagreb urban region). The developer Kamgrad (one of

the leading Croatian construction companies) has built this modern facility

for the long-term tenant Atlantic Group. The new LDC will have 30,000

pallets and the investment totalled €18.5 million.

Demand

In H2 2018 the demand remained strong for logistics stock, especially in

Zagreb area. The demand was driven mainly by logistics providers,

pharmaceutical and food & beverage distributors, appliance distributors and

other consumer goods retailers.

Due to lack of quality supply, some of the largest companies in Croatia are

deciding to build properties for own use or collaborate with a developer on

construction and long-term lease agreements. The demand remained

strongest for warehouses between 2,000 m² and 5,000 m², but there is also

a significant interest for modern warehouse premises above 5,000 m².

Vacancy & rents

As a result of increased demand and limited supply, vacancy rate remained

below 2.5%. Prime monthly headline rents for logistics premises in Zagreb

is in region of EUR 5.5/m². Average rents for older and refurbished industrial

premises range from EUR 2/m² to EUR 4/m².


> Croatian Post’s new logistic centre in Velika Gorica near the Zagreb

International Airport is currently under construction. The total estimated

value of this investment is approx. EUR 46 million. The facility is

scheduled to be built in two phases. On completion of all phases, the total

surface area of the complex will be 38,200 m² on the surface of 70,000

m².

> Gebrüder Weiss is investing EUR 17 million in a new logistics centre in

Sveta Nedelja near Zagreb. The new logistics centre will have 18,000 m²

and will replace their old centre in Jankomir which is three times smaller

than the new facility.

5.5

4.7 4.75 5

4.154.7

4

Prime Warehouse Headline Rent(€/m2/month) H2 2018

2.5

5.0

1.9

-0.2

1.8 1.9 2.0

Industrial Production (annual var. in %)

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Croatian industrial sector: Building permits issued & planned floor area


Zagreb Logistics and Warehouse – Factsheet H2 2018

Total stock in m² 935,000

Vacancy <2.5%

Prime headline rent €5.5/m²

Source: Colliers International / Focus Economics

Industrial / Logistics Market




Supply & Demand

According to Croatian Bureau of Statistics, Croatia recorded 18.6 million

tourist arrivals and 89.8 million overnights in 2018, which is an increase of

6.5% and 4.2% yoy respectively. Croatian tourism is characterised by high

seasonality with 59% of all overnights in 2018 made in two summer months

July and August. Tourist turnover experienced a slowdown in these key two

months; arrivals grew 1.7% and overnights 1.6% yoy.

Foreign overnights accounted for 93% of all overnights, the same share as

in 2017. Average length of stay slightly decreased from 4.9 days in 2017 to

4.8 days in 2018, continuing a trend from past ten years.

During 2018, leading HTL players continued making large investments to

improve quality and competitiveness. Valamar Riviera Group, one of the

largest investors in Croatian tourism, completed its large investment cycle

worth over EUR 95 million. The investments included several projects: the

repositioning of Rabac as high-end holiday destination was completed with

the opening of the Valamar Collection Girandella Maro Suites 5*, and the

Valamar Argosy Hotel 4* in Dubrovnik was repositioned as “adults only”

hotel. Valamar’s large investment cycle in the forthcoming 2019 is planned

around EUR 101 million.

In 2018 Plava Laguna had the largest capital budget in its history - around

EUR 68 million. Plava Laguna invested approx. EUR 33 million in the Park

Resort in Poreč, which comprises 309 accommodation units, including 154

rooms and suites, 91 garden suites, 43 apartments and 21 villas. In Umag,

the company invested approx. EUR 84 million in the complete

reconstruction of the Stella Maris campsite and approx. EUR 11 million in

Garden Suites & Rooms Sol Umag. Plava Laguna is planning to invest

around EUR 40 million in 2019.

It is expected that the occupancy rate for hotels in Croatia has increased in

2018 slightly from 2017 when it was around 48% (175 days). Leading hotel

players’ reported growth in ADR and RevPAR in their financial reports for

the first 9 months of 2018.

There is a substantial interest from investors and developers for HTL

projects across the whole coast and in two largest cities, Zagreb and Split.

However, numerous factors harm the competitiveness of Croatian tourism

and hinder further investment potential: VAT (one of the highest rates in the

Mediterranean), high rate of total contributions to salaries, skilled labor

shortages, red tape and tourist tax increase.

Large projects under construction

> Maistra (Adris Group) has invested more than EUR 81 million in Grand

Hotel Park in Rovinj. The new 5* hotel is being built on site old Hotel

Park. The new Hotel Park will comprise 209 rooms. Total investment

amounts to approx. EUR 390,000 per room, a market record. Although it

was supposed to be open at the end of 2018, the hotel’s opening has

been postponed to April 2019. Hotel Park is considered one of the most

luxurious hotels in Croatia.

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Croatia - Tourist arrivals and overnights (in million)

Overnights Arrivals

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Passengers in Dubrovnik, Split and Zagreb Airports

Dubrovnik Airport Split Airport

Zagreb Airport

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Croatian hotel sector: Building permits issued & planned floor area



Source: Zagreb Airport, Split Airport, Dubrovnik Airport

HTL Market


Supply & Demand

In 2018 the total transaction volume of commercial real estate reached

approx. EUR 810 million, which shows strong increase in investment activity

compared to 2017 (approx. EUR 320 million).

Supported by the positive macroeconomic indicators and strong property

fundamentals, Croatian CRE market is seeing high demand for yielding

properties coupled with a scarcity of quality products across all sectors. In

addition to income-producing properties, the demand is also strong for

distressed assets or value-add opportunities.

Retail and hotel sectors recorded highest investment volumes in the

Croatian commercial property market in 2018, as a result of portfolio deals.

Domestic investors were the most active purchasers representing 50% of

all deals by volume. The most active foreign investors are REITs (real estate

investment trusts) from South Africa, with 40% market share. The drivers

for newcomer investors are attractive yields, often with little or no elevated

risk compared to other CEE countries.

Due to the strong investor interest, the market is characterized by strong

seller position, especially on prime investment products.

Prime yields are under pressure in all asset classes. We saw yield

compression of 175 bps in industrial/logistics sector, while prime retail and

hotel opportunities are being priced at a similar level as they were at the end

of 2017.

Despite shortage in product, 2019 is expected to reach 2018 investment

volume. We expect continuation of high investment volumes in hotel sector.

Office sector is expected to take higher market share than last years.

Top transactions in H2 2018

> The last major state owned hotel chain Hoteli Maestral has finally found

a buyer. After eight unsuccessful tenders, PND Strategy, highest bidder

in the ninth tender, purchased the hotel chain in Dubrovnik. Hoteli

Maestral consists of five hotels in the Bay of Lapad with 473 rooms. All

hotels are in need of investment. The purchase price for 68.94% stake

totalled approx. EUR 20.7 million (100% valuation equates to approx.

EUR 63,800 per room).

> Immofinanz continued driving the expansion of its Stop Shop retail park

brand by purchasing 8 retail parks in Croatia, Slovenia and Serbia.

Croatian properties are located in Osijek and Valpovo. Total NLA of two

retail parks is 13,500 m². The seller of the locations in Croatia was MID

Group. The price for Croatian properties totalled approx. EUR 22.1

million or EUR 1,640 per m² of NLA.

> Tower Property Fund acquired a prime industrial property situated in

Žitnjak, Zagreb from VMD Grupa. The ground floor of the two objects is

used for manufacturing and the first floor for offices. The property has

6,775 m² GLA out of which 5,775 m² is let to a leading manufacturer of

wiring harnesses in the automotive industry. The price totalled approx.

EUR 8.6 million or EUR 1,270 per m² of GLA. Yield amounted to 7.50%.

Average prime yields in H2 2018 - Croatia

A class Office Yield 7.50%

Prime Retail Yield 7.00%

Prime Industrial/Logistics Yield 7.50%

Prime Hotel Yield 6.50%

64%15%

8%

7%6%

CRE - Capital Markets Transaction Volumes (€) by region in 2018

Zagreb Dubrovnik

Dalmatia Istria/Kvarner

Slavonia

47%

42%

6%

4%

1%

CRE - Capital Markets Transaction Volumes (€) by property sectors in

2018

Retail Hotel Dev site Office Other



Investment Market


Yield is calculated as NOI/Price excluding taxes and transaction costs


Supply

Croatian and Zagreb residential real estate sector was severely hit by the

economic recession, which lasted from 2009 to 2014. During that period the

demand was low and a lot of apartments, especially new build, could not

find a buyer. This led to default of many developers. Therefore, despite the

economic recovery which followed and strong demand for residential stock

the supply of new build apartments is still much lower than it was in pre-

crisis years. In addition to lack of developers, other key reasons for low

supply are construction labour shortage, rising wages and inflated land

prices in some locations.

Most activity comes from domestic developers. Currently most active large

developers in Zagreb are VMD Grupa, Alfastan, Kaić - Domograd, Pionir,

Zagrebgradnja, Mešić COM, Nivogradnja, Kamen Ukras, Sigma, FEAL

Grupa and Saras Promet.

Demand

The demand and volumes are strongest in Zagreb and in coastal cities

where the demand exceeds the supply. The demand is mostly propelled by

need for permanent residence. Another important driver, especially on the

coast, is tourism / short-term apartment rental business. The buyers are

predominantly local population with mild share of foreigners or diaspora

buying on the coast and in high-end projects in Zagreb.

There is a lack of new(er) housing affordable to those with a median

household income. Key threats to sustainability of volumes and prices in the

medium-term are demographic trends and change of economic cycle and

interest rates.

Prices and expectations

The prices have been growing pushed by strong demand, more favourable

interest rates and lack of supply. Asking prices for apartments rose in 85%

of Croatian counties in H2 2018 yoy. The average asking price for

apartments in December 2018 amounted to EUR 1,960/m² and EUR

2,430/m² in Zagreb and Split respectively, according to Njuskalo.hr.

The discrepancy between the asking prices and transaction prices is

noticeable. The average transaction price in H1 2018 in Zagreb was EUR

1,670/m², according to Croatian Bureau of Statistics, approx. 10% lower

than average asking price in the same period.

Average transaction prices in new high-end apartment projects in Zagreb in

H2 2018 ranged from EUR 2,400/m² to EUR 2,700/m² (including 25% VAT).

We expect the prices will continue (slightly) increasing in the short to

medium term in Zagreb and on the coast, providing the interest rates and

economic cycle remain stable. The correction of prices in favourable

macroeconomic conditions will happen if the supply significantly increases

and for that to happen, one of the large projects in pipeline needs to come

to the market.

0

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10,000New apartments built in Zagreb

New apartments Exponential trend

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Zagreb apartment transactional volume

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No. of completed apartments in Split and surroundings

Split Solin Kaštela Podstrana



Source: eNekretnine

Residential Market


About Colliers

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Copyright © 2019 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.

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About Colliers International Group Inc.

About Colliers International Colliers International (NASDAQ, TSX: CIGI) is a leading global real estate services and investment management company. With operations in 68 countries, our 17,000 enterprising people work collaboratively to provide expert advice and services to maximize the value of property for real estate occupiers, owners and investors. For more than 20 years, our experienced leadership team, owning more than 40% of our equity, have delivered industry-leading investment returns for shareholders. In 2018, corporate revenues were $2.8 billion ($3.3 billion including affiliates), with more than $26 billion of assets under management. Colliers professionals think differently, share great ideas and offer thoughtful and innovative advice to accelerate the success of its clients. Colliers has been ranked among the top 100 global outsourcing firms by the International Association of Outsourcing Professionals for 13 consecutive years, more than any other real estate services firm. Colliers is ranked the number one property manager in the world by Commercial Property Executive for two years in a row.

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CROATIA, SLOVENIA AND BIH

Petrinjska 3, Zagreb +385 1 4886 280 [email protected] Colliers International Croatia AUTHOR: Klara Matić MBA, MRICS Head of Investment, Valuation and Advisory Services

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