colliers 2012 q1 multifamily report

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Colliers International 601 Union St., Ste 5300 | Seattle, WA 98101 www.colliers.com FIRST QUARTER 2012 Research & Knowledge Report David W. Mortensen Sr. Associate 206 382 8554 [email protected] Dave Schumacher Sr. Vice President 206 382 8555 [email protected] Seattle Multifamily Dylan P. Simon Associate 206 624 7413 [email protected]

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Here is a great regional report we produce for those of you following multifamily in Puget Sound --Colliers Institutional Multifamily Report for Q1 2012

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Colliers 2012 Q1 Multifamily Report

Colliers International601 Union St., Ste 5300 | Seattle, WA 98101 www.colliers.com

FIRST QUARTER 2012

Research & Knowledge Report

David W. MortensenSr. Associate206 382 8554 [email protected]

Dave SchumacherSr. Vice President206 382 [email protected]

Seattle Multifamily

Dylan P. SimonAssociate206 624 [email protected]

Page 2: Colliers 2012 Q1 Multifamily Report

Puget Sound Home ownerSHiP rateS

research & forecast reportCollierS international | Seattle

www.colliers.com/seattle

the biggest building boom in 25 years is taking place in seattle. In the past, most new construction happened in the suburbs. In this cycle, however, the vast majority of the new product is in seattle proper – Downtown, first hill/capitol hill, fremont/Ballard, and the University District. at the same time, puget sound area employment is up 2.5% year-over-year, which is stronger than previously thought, and the area is expected to add jobs at a rate of 2% or better every year through 2016.

Inside, we examine the potential new product and project how much of it will actually be built. We examine employment growth and demand forecasts to determine if and when the market will be oversaturated by the new supply, or whether the strong demand will absorb the new product.

We also look at the investment market – specifically sales volume and cap rates. sales volume is increasing and is likely to continue to increase throughout 2012 and 2013. Downward pressure on cap rates continues, but we expect it to flatten out this year. What market forces could reverse cap rate compression? finally, we take a brief look at each of the major market regions within the seattle metro area – seattle, eastside, southend and snohomish county.

market indiCatorS

2012 2013

VaCanCY

CaP rateS

ConStruCtion

rentS

Q1 2012 | multiFamilY

keY indiCatorS•tri-county sales volume totaled $408

million in Q1 2012 vs. $100 million Q1 2011 •rents in the seattle Msa have risen 4.8%

year-over-year according to apartment Insights

•Vacancy is down to 4.1% in King county and 4.6% in snohomish county

•18% are offering concessions vs. the Q1 2010 peak of 62% (duprescott.com)

Demand Driving Construction, Rates Driving Sales

58.0%

59.0%

60.0%

61.0%

62.0%

63.0%

64.0%

65.0%

66.0%

67.0% “There remains an aversion to home ownership as evidenced by still downward-trending home ownership rates. This phenomenon continues to stimulate demand by depressing turnover and thereby limiting fresh new supply.” Thomas W. Toomey, president and CEO of UDR (The Watch List, Feb 9, 2012)

SuPPlY and demand•employment is projected to grow between

2.0% and 2.5% annually in the puget sound through 2016 (economicforecaster.com)

•approximately 3,500 new units are expected to be delivered in 2012

•New development should peak in 2013 with a projected 6,300 new units

Page 3: Colliers 2012 Q1 Multifamily Report

research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFaMily

CollierS international | P. 2

growing SuPPlY, growing demandthere are 28,000 total units that are either under construction or in planning stages in King and snohomish counties. to try to put that in some perspective, we handicap the various stages of development for likelihood of completion. We assume that 100% of the properties currently under construction will be completed. We handicap properties in the planning stages at different levels based on projected year of delivery. We project that 70% of properties in planning for 2013 delivery will be completed. We project 60% completion for 2014 properties and 50% for 2015 and the projects in planning without delivery dates as yet. the total projected delivery over the next 4 years using that handicapping scheme just over 20,000 units. We believe actual deliveries are highly unlikely to exceed that number and may well fall short.

ProjeCted deliVerieS in king and SnoHomiSH CountieS

3,949

6,887 5,731

2,976

632 -

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 Future

Completed Under Construction Planning Projected

Yellow bars indicate our own projections of actual deliveries

ProjeCting emPloYment growtHafter projected new development, employment is the primary factor that determines when and if seattle gets overbuilt.

employment in the seattle area grew faster than previously thought, causing conway and pedersen (economicforecaster.com) to increase their 2012 employment forecasts up by 12,400 jobs in King and snohomish counties. Unemployment is now down to 7.4% in King county (which peaked at 9.0% Q4 2009) and 8.2% in snohomish county (which peaked at 10.6% Q4 2009). they project unemployment to drop to 7.1%/7.9% in 2013 (King/snohomish), 6.9%/7.7% in 2014 and 6.6%/7.3% in 2015.

employment is the primary driver of in-migration and apartment demand, so improving employment bodes well for absorption of new supply. our demand projections come from a March 2012 o’connor consulting Group report. those projections do not take into account conway and pedersen’s now increased employment forecast, so an updated demand projection would likely be somewhat higher.

ProjeCted job growtH in king and SnoHomiSH CountieS

2,086

6,643 6,635 6,182 4,315

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

New Jobs New Apartment Demand

Sources: Employment – economicforecaster.com, Demand – O’Connor Consulting Group (Mar 2012)

Page 4: Colliers 2012 Q1 Multifamily Report

research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFaMily

CollierS international | P. 3

ProjeCting demand and new deVeloPmentDeliveries are expected to peak in 2013 for this cycle and taper down to more typical levels. still, this development cycle is not likely to end any time soon. We have been predicting a housing shortage in the seattle market since 2008. the market lost nearly 10,000 units from 2004-2007 which the development pipeline has just replaced as of last year. Demand currently exceeds supply even though unemployment is still around 8%. the demand projections from o’connor consulting Group show that new households and employment growth are expected to keep demand in front of supply for the foreseeable future.

CaP rateS ComPreSSingInterest rates and the 10-year treasury have been major factors driving cap rate compression in this cycle. at this point, neither the 10-year nor cap rates are likely to go any lower, particularly given the record low 1.79% 10-year treasury yield seen earlier this year. the fed has promised to keep interest rates “low” through 2014, but that may not stop the 10-year from creeping up as we witnessed in March. Downward pressure on cap rates will likely ease somewhat following any upward movement in interest rates and the 10-year yield.

king CountY CaP rateS

8.1% 8.1% 8.0% 7.4%

6.3% 5.6% 5.4%

4.8%

5.5%

6.8% 6.2% 5.9%

5.2%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

SaleS Volume riSingpuget sound sales volume returned to more typical levels in 2011, and 2012 looks to build on that momentum. Q1 2012 sales volume in the tri-county area totaled $408 million vs. $100 million in Q1 2011. Deal flow should continue to rise throughout 2012 and 2013.

tri-CountY SaleS Volume

$0

$500,000,000

$1,000,000,000

$1,500,000,000

$2,000,000,000

$2,500,000,000

King Pierce Snohomish

ProjeCted demand VS. deliVerieS

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

New Apartment Demand New Deliveries

ProjeCted VaCanCY

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Page 5: Colliers 2012 Q1 Multifamily Report

EVERETT

MILL CREEK

LYNNWOOD

EDMONDS

SEATTLE

SNOHOMISH

MONROE

REDMOND

ISSAQUAH

BELLEVUE

WOODINVILLEBOTHELL

RENTON

TUKWILA

SEATAC

FEDERAL WAY AUBURN

BURIEN

PUYALLUP

TACOMA

GIG HARBOR

KENT

Snohomish County

Eastside

Greater Seattle

Southend

Pierce County

$800

$900

$1,000

$1,100

$1,200

$1,300

$1,400

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Average Rent and Vacancy - Seattle MSA Markets

$500

$600

$700

$800

Greater Seattle Eastside Southend Snohomish County0%

1%

2%

3%

Average Rent/SF Average Vacancy Rate

eastside top employers

greater Seattle top employers

Snohmish County top employers

Southend top employers

> Microsoft> Nintendo > Costco Wholesale> Expedia Inc> Esterline Technologies

> Symetra Financial> Data I/O Corp > Concur Technologies> Clearwire Corp> Google

> The Boeing Company> Port of Seattle> Providence Health> Valley Medical Center> Weyerhaeuser

> Paccar Inc / Kenworth> Alaska Air Group> IKEA> REI> Mikron Industries

> University of Washington> Amazon.com> King County Government> Group Health Cooperative> Nordstrom Inc > Swedish Medical Center

> Starbucks Corp > Perkins Coie > Expeditors International > Real Networks Inc > Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation > Russell Investments

> The Boeing Company> Naval Station Everett> Providence Regional Medical Center> Premera Blue Cross> Tulalip Tribes> Philips Medical Systems

> Zumiez> Aviation Technical Services> Rinker Materials NW> Fluke Corp> Intermec

Page 6: Colliers 2012 Q1 Multifamily Report

research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFaMily

CollierS international | P. 5

after the recession and the collapse of Washington Mutual, the downtown seattle office and retail sectors have rebounded dramatically. •Downtown employment growth is driving apartment development

which is why 75% of the region’s new projects are being built in seattle. In fact, seattle ranked fifth nationally for job growth between January 2011 and January 2012 (psBJ 3/23/12).

•amazon has played a critical role in the downtown surge. along with the new south Lake Union campus headquarters, it recently announced plans to add a staggering 3 million square feet of office in the Denny triangle. amazon has almost single-handedly driven down the office vacancy rate in the northern edge of downtown by leasing up office space nearby. amazon’s rapid expansion has also been a catalyst for the restaurant and apartment surge in south Lake Union and the rush to build apartments elsewhere in the downtown core.

•the downtown retail sector led by Nordstrom is thriving. Nordstrom is expanding into the Quest plaza tower recently purchased by clarion. the company, which already occupied over one million sf in downtown seattle, signed a 20-year lease for 300,000 sf. Meanwhile, target purchased 103,000 sf of space in 2010 and will open one of the first small-format citytarget stores in downtown seattle this summer. target is offering one-stop shopping, including groceries, to urban dwellers in seattle, chicago, san francisco and Los angeles.

Greater seattle

Vacancy cap rates construction rents

2012

2013

greater Seattle market VaCanCY

3 00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

Gr Seattle Market Vacancy

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

Q1 00

Q1 01

Q1 02

Q1 03

Q1 04

Q1 05

Q1 06

Q1 07

Q1 08

Q1 09

Q1 10

Q1 11

Q1 12

greater Seattle aVerage rent

$1,050 

$1,100 

$1,150 

$1,200 

$1,250 

Greater Seattle Average Rent

$900 

$950 

$1,000 

Q2 07

Q3 07

Q1 08

Q3 08

Q1 09

Q3 09

Q1 10

Q3 10

Q1 11

Q3 11

Q1 12

greater Seattle new deVeloPment

2 000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

0

1,000

2,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Completed Under Construction Planned

Page 7: Colliers 2012 Q1 Multifamily Report

research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFaMily

CollierS international | P. 6

Multifamily rents on the eastside are the highest in the region and vacancy rates have dropped to 3.7%. eastside office vacancy has fallen below 10%, the lowest in the region.

•touchstone announced they are moving ahead “full throttle” with their redevelopment plans for Kirkland parkplace. Google is rumored to be a likely tenant for a portion of the 1.2 million sf of office/tech space. (Daily Journal of commerce, 4/13/12)

•seattle is still capturing many of the young creative and tech workers that commute to the eastside, but some urban villages are cropping up on the eastside to keep Gen Y on that side of Lake Washington. Look to the downtowns of redmond, Bellevue, Kirkland and even Bothell to become denser and hipper as this development cycle unfolds with improved infrastructure and strategic development within their emerging urban city centers.

•the eastside’s strong high-tech employment base led by Microsoft continues to draw an educated workforce to the area. as neighborhood walkability and abundant transit options become increasingly important, city officials are responding to this demand.

•Many cities on the eastside have joined forces to ensure conversion of the eastside rail corridor into a regional trail and linear park. this 44-mile rail corridor runs from renton to snohomish. In redmond the trail parallels the planned east Link light rail station. In Kirkland, the corridor connects a key highway 520 park-and-ride with a Google campus and totem Lake.

•plans for the east link light rail extension from seattle through Mercer Island, I-90 core, Bellevue and eventually redmond are in the final design stage.

eastside

eaStSide market VaCanCY

eaStSide aVerage rent

eaStSide ProjeCted new deVeloPment

Vacancy cap rates construction rents

2012

2013

4 0%

5.0%6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

Eastside Market Vacancy

0.0%1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

Q1 00

Q1 01

Q1 02

Q1 03

Q1 04

Q1 05

Q1 06

Q1 07

Q1 08

Q1 09

Q1 10

Q1 11

Q1 12

$1 200

$1,250 

$1,300 

$1,350 

Eastside Average Rent

$1,100 

$1,150 

$1,200 

Q2 07

Q3 07

Q1 08

Q3 08

Q1 09

Q3 09

Q1 10

Q3 10

Q1 11

Q3 11

Q1 12

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

0

200

400

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Completed Under Construction Planned

Page 8: Colliers 2012 Q1 Multifamily Report

research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFaMily

CollierS international | P. 7

• occupancy in the southend is improving (from 5.9% Q3 2011 to 5.6% Q1 2012) but is still above 5%. opportunistic investors should look to this region for a late-recovering market. We particularly like Kent and renton for the employment story

•rents are up just 1.76% YoY in the southend to $924 which is still about 4% off the Q3 2008 peak of $959. With relatively flat supply (only 499 new units planned for the southend through 2015), demand should begin to push rents in earnest as the southend continues its pattern of population and job growth.

•paccar, one of the key southend employers, recently received an order for 1,000 Kenworth t680 trucks. the deal is similar to the $100 million/1,000 truck deal received two years ago. (psBJ 3/22/12)

•We discuss Boeing at length in the snohomish county section, but the southend is not to be neglected. the company has five facilities and numerous suppliers in the southend, all adding capacity. this includes the renton plant where the 737s are manufactured.

southend

SoutHend market VaCanCY

SoutHend aVerage rent

SoutHend new deVeloPment

Vacancy cap rates construction rents

2012

2013

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

Southend Market Vacancy

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

Q1 00

Q1 01

Q1 02

Q1 03

Q1 04

Q1 05

Q1 06

Q1 07

Q1 08

Q1 09

Q1 10

Q1 11

Q1 12

$850

$900 

$950 

$1,000 

Southend Average Rent

$750 

$800 

$850 

Q2 07

Q3 07

Q1 08

Q3 08

Q1 09

Q3 09

Q1 10

Q3 10

Q1 11

Q3 11

Q1 12

200

300

400

500

600

0

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Completed Under Construction Planned

Page 9: Colliers 2012 Q1 Multifamily Report

research & forecast report | Q1 2012 | MultiFaMily

CollierS international | P. 8

•rents are up 3.40% YoY in snohomish county to $974 which is still 3.3% off the Q3 2008 peak of $1,006. Like the southend, we also like snohomish county for investors looking for markets that are just about to recover in earnest.

•the new development pipeline for all of snohomish county through 2014 is less than 1,000 units. the largest project, Bailey’s farm, a 372-unit development between Bothell and Mill creek, is currently under construction for 2013 delivery.

successes continue to add up at Boeing, which has a huge presence in snohomish county: •fifty 787 Dreamliners have come off the production line as of

february. •the 747- 800, Boeing’s largest plane ever developed, has faa

certification, and both the freighter and passenger configurations are now being delivered.

•the air force tanker contract, which will also be built at the everett plant, promises 20-year stability that is essentially immune to cycles. With an initial order of $35 billion, projections have gone as high as $100 billion for long-term production as well as orders from foreign countries for their air refueling tanker needs.

•Boeing is the country’s largest exporter with roughly 80 percent of its airliners sold overseas where the 787 Dreamliner is most popular (Wired.com, 2/17/12).

•Boeing added 9,000 workers in Washington since the end of 2010 and now employs 82,325 in the state.

•as Boeing ramps up production to record levels in both renton and everett, Washington’s 650 aerospace suppliers are adding capacity and gearing up to meet the company’s needs.

•the Boeing company has a $300 billion backlog of airplane orders and by 2013 it will be cranking out about 60 airplanes per month, according to Janice Greene, senior manager of supplier diversity for Boeing commercial airplanes (the columbian, 04/1/2012).

•over the next two decades, the state’s most powerful employer plans to sell 33,500 commercial airplanes for a cool $4 trillion (seattle times, 2/7/12).

snohomish county

Vacancy cap rates construction rents

2012

2013

SnoHomiSH CountY market VaCanCY

4 0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%9.0%

10.0%

Snohomish Co Market Vacancy

0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%

Q1 00

Q1 01

Q1 02

Q1 03

Q1 04

Q1 05

Q1 06

Q1 07

Q1 08

Q1 09

Q1 10

Q1 11

Q1 12

SnoHomiSH CountY aVerage rent

$900

$950 

$1,000 

$1,050 

Snohomish County Avg Rent

$800 

$850 

$900 

Q2 07

Q3 07

Q1 08

Q3 08

Q1 09

Q3 09

Q1 10

Q3 10

Q1 11

Q3 11

Q1 12

SnoHomiSH CountY ProjeCted new deVeloPment

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

0

100

200

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Completed Under Construction Planned

Page 10: Colliers 2012 Q1 Multifamily Report

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5.2%

3.9%

6.3%

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S eat

tle S

outh

7.6%

8.0%

7.7%

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Beac

on H

ill6.

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4.6%

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8.0%

8.7%

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4.7%

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7.1%

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8.1%

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8.3%

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burn

7.4%

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5.6%

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5.9%

7.2%

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8.7%

6.1%

4.7%

5.9%

5.5%

Silv

er L

ake

9.5%

8.9%

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4.6%

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6.4%

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ill C

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6.2%

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7.0%

6.2%

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5.3%

3.3%

3.7%

3.2%

3.8%

4.6%

6.0%

7.0%

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Mar

ysvi

lle/M

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e7.

9%7.

9%5.

2%5.

0%3.

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7%2.

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ount

lake

Ter

race

8.6%

9.2%

9.7%

10.0

%8.

7%7.

7%3.

7%4.

3%2.

5%3.

4%4.

6%6.

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thel

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th6.

9%8.

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4%4.

8%3.

4%4.

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5%P i

erce

Cou

nty:

6.7%

6.9%

8.0%

8.2%

6.5%

4.9%

4.8%

7.4%

5.9%

3.6%

3.9%

4.5%

6.0%

9.3%

7.6%

5.0%

5.6%

6.2%

5.8%

Tota

l 3-C

ount

y A

rea:

7.7%

7.6%

7.5%

7.4%

6.6%

5.3%

4.7%

4.8%

4.3%

3.8%

4.2%

4.9%

6.6%

7.2%

6.3%

5.0%

4.6%

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Puge

t Sou

nd O

vera

ll:7.

6%7.

3%7.

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4%6.

5%5.

3%4.

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8%4.

1%4.

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6%7.

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7%

Sour

ce:

Dupr

e +

Scot

t Apa

rtm

ent A

dvis

ors,

dup

resc

ott.c

om, (

206)

935

-291

5