collective action under autocracies
DESCRIPTION
Slides of my talk in Cairo University, Egypt on May 30th. Talk organized by IDRCTRANSCRIPT
Zeynep Tufekci, Ph.D.Zeynep Tufekci, Ph.D.
Organized by IDRC Organized by IDRC in collaboration with Cairo University and UNDPin collaboration with Cairo University and UNDP
Cairo University, MayCairo University, May 30th 30th
IInternet and nternet and social changesocial change
Social Media and Social Media and Collective Action Collective Action
Under AutocraciesUnder Autocracies
A Little About MeA Little About Me
Zeynep TufekciZeynep Tufekci Assistant Professor of Sociology Assistant Professor of Sociology Technosociology.orgTechnosociology.org Twitter: @techsocTwitter: @techsoc
Honored to be here!Honored to be here!
A Little About the TalkA Little About the Talk
The credit, of course, goes to the The credit, of course, goes to the amazing people of Egyptamazing people of Egypt
But tools/methods always have an But tools/methods always have an impactimpact
Analyzing/presenting mechanismsAnalyzing/presenting mechanisms
Challenges to Collective Challenges to Collective ActionAction
Information diffusionInformation diffusion Shaping the public sphereShaping the public sphere ““Hidden Preferences”Hidden Preferences” -what do -what do
others think?others think? SynchronizationSynchronization Mass actionMass action
Social Media and ImpactsSocial Media and Impacts
Does social media give us the same Does social media give us the same results, results, maybe maybe just faster?just faster?
Or, does it qualitatively change the Or, does it qualitatively change the dynamics?dynamics?
What Does Social Media What Does Social Media Change?Change?
NetworkNetwork-level-level effects effects– Shape/structure of the networkShape/structure of the network– Speed of transmissionSpeed of transmission
Field effectsField effects– Reshaping/recreating a public sphereReshaping/recreating a public sphere
Network to field effectsNetwork to field effects– Information cascadesInformation cascades– Revealing of hidden preferencesRevealing of hidden preferences
Information/CensorshipInformation/Censorship
Autocracies traditionally hold Autocracies traditionally hold monopoly on broadcast, TV, radio, monopoly on broadcast, TV, radio, printprint
Effective CensorshipEffective Censorship PropagandaPropaganda
Connectivity RevolutionConnectivity Revolution
Connectivity RevolutionConnectivity Revolution
Anti-censorship/citizen Anti-censorship/citizen mediamedia
Spread of cell-phones with camerasSpread of cell-phones with cameras Al-Jazeera, itself plugged into social Al-Jazeera, itself plugged into social
mediamedia Facebook, Twitter, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter, Youtube,
Dailymotion, Blogs, SMS, etc.Dailymotion, Blogs, SMS, etc. Game-changerGame-changer
Society-level Prisoner’s Society-level Prisoner’s DilemmaDilemma
How do I know what my neighbor thinks?How do I know what my neighbor thinks? Does my neighbor know what I think?Does my neighbor know what I think? How does my neighbor know that I know How does my neighbor know that I know
what she thinks?what she thinks? Does my neighbor’s neighbor understand Does my neighbor’s neighbor understand
that we are both against the autocracy?that we are both against the autocracy?
(Trans)formation of the public (Trans)formation of the public spheresphere
Public Sphere(s)Public Sphere(s)
Through Facebook/Blogs/Twitter, Through Facebook/Blogs/Twitter, people crossed the redlines and people crossed the redlines and taboos in Egypt, Tunisia, elsewheretaboos in Egypt, Tunisia, elsewhere
New discourses emerged as public New discourses emerged as public discoursesdiscourses
Different than being an individual Different than being an individual dissenterdissenter
Hidden PreferencesHidden Preferences
When there is mass dissent...When there is mass dissent... But everyone is afraid to stick their But everyone is afraid to stick their
neck out!neck out! Information/politicization Information/politicization can occur can occur
cascadescascades – once the floodgates open, – once the floodgates open, it roars.it roars.
Syncronization of Syncronization of Actions/BeliefsActions/Beliefs
HHard for people to synchronize their ard for people to synchronize their beliefs or their actions in a one-to-beliefs or their actions in a one-to-one mannerone manner
Slow, dangerousSlow, dangerous
Mass ActionMass Action
Requires a ready publicRequires a ready public Requires information diffusionRequires information diffusion Requires synchronizationRequires synchronization Requires ... Courage! Requires ... Courage!
– No shortage of that!No shortage of that!
Social Media and Social Media and AutocraciesAutocracies
Social Media has an impact on all Social Media has an impact on all these challenges to collective action these challenges to collective action under autocraciesunder autocracies
Mechanisms combine and interactMechanisms combine and interact
Social Media:Social Media:
Increased participationIncreased participation Faster information diffusionFaster information diffusion Changes to shape of connectivity Changes to shape of connectivity
networksnetworks Audience reshuffling: (re)uniting and Audience reshuffling: (re)uniting and
(re)segmentation(re)segmentation
Increased ParticipationIncreased Participation
Strengthens dynamics on-the groundStrengthens dynamics on-the ground– Can result in consolidation or polarizationCan result in consolidation or polarization
Opens door to oral culture – people who Opens door to oral culture – people who might not have traditional “high” might not have traditional “high” literacyliteracy
Emotional Transference (via Mahmoud Emotional Transference (via Mahmoud Salem)Salem)
Social MediaSocial Media
Does not just allow communicationDoes not just allow communication Allows rapid, many-to-many Allows rapid, many-to-many
communicationcommunication Which is a qualitative change Which is a qualitative change
People could always talk to each People could always talk to each other, but oneother, but one or few or few at a time at a time
TheThe shape of the network shape of the network
Existing:Existing:– One-to-Many (Broadcast)One-to-Many (Broadcast)
Powerful to the powerlessPowerful to the powerless
– One-to-one/few (Face-to-face, One-to-one/few (Face-to-face, telephone, etc.)telephone, etc.) Peer-to-peer Peer-to-peer
Addition:Addition:– Many-to-many Many-to-many
Peer-to-peerPeer-to-peer
One-to-Many Network (Broadcast)
One-to-Many Network (Broadcast)
First Target in a Coup!
First Target in a Coup!
Demonstrators, too!
One-to-OneOne-to-One
Many-to-Many NetworksMany-to-Many Networks
Lessons from EpidemiologyLessons from Epidemiology
Speed of TransmissionSpeed of Transmission Speed of RecoverySpeed of Recovery Shape of NetworkShape of Network
– Hubs and connectivity increases Hubs and connectivity increases contagioncontagion
These factors determine These factors determine
whether a quarantine will workwhether a quarantine will work
Altered DynamicsAltered Dynamics
State is a resource-constrained actorState is a resource-constrained actor Autocracies often have evolved to Autocracies often have evolved to
play “whack-a-protest” play “whack-a-protest” Social media, by allowing mass Social media, by allowing mass
coordination and rapid information coordination and rapid information diffusion, complicates “whack-a-diffusion, complicates “whack-a-protest”protest”
Audience Reshuffling/ Audience Reshuffling/ ReorganizationReorganization
Segmentation of audiencesSegmentation of audiences The attention economy and speedThe attention economy and speed Counter-broadcast and attention Counter-broadcast and attention
monopoly monopoly – (was Tahrir empty on #May27?)(was Tahrir empty on #May27?)
From Wikileaks to Facebook to From Wikileaks to Facebook to #Jan25#Jan25
State ResponsesState Responses
SurveillanceSurveillance– Numbers versus hidingNumbers versus hiding
PropagandaPropaganda– Television versus social-network basedTelevision versus social-network based– Muddying the watersMuddying the waters
CensorshipCensorship– Dictator’s (and Bin Ladin’s Dilemma)Dictator’s (and Bin Ladin’s Dilemma)
Dictator’s DilemmaDictator’s Dilemma
Internet/mobiles integrated into daily Internet/mobiles integrated into daily lifelife
Used for many purposes besides Used for many purposes besides politicspolitics
Cut it off and everyone is upset, Cut it off and everyone is upset, business suffersbusiness suffers
Leave it on and it allows for dissentLeave it on and it allows for dissent Game changer – it can be censored, Game changer – it can be censored,
but that requires a lot of effortbut that requires a lot of effort
Polarization and Civil WarPolarization and Civil War
Social media does not guarantee Social media does not guarantee unityunity
Social media does not create dissent Social media does not create dissent where there is nonewhere there is none
Social media strengthens dynamics Social media strengthens dynamics on the groundon the ground
Bahrain, China, etc. Bahrain, China, etc. Civil war and brutal repressionCivil war and brutal repression
HierarchyHierarchy
Social Media / Open Networks can Social Media / Open Networks can create hierarchiescreate hierarchies
““Power Law” or the 80/20 rule – a Power Law” or the 80/20 rule – a few people/blogs/webpages get most few people/blogs/webpages get most of the links and the attentionof the links and the attention
The process can become self-The process can become self-perpetuatingperpetuating
Preferential AttachmentPreferential Attachment
Hierarchy/GovernanceHierarchy/Governance
Shuffling the network around Shuffling the network around TransparencyTransparency AccountabilityAccountability Self-organization – as in #May27Self-organization – as in #May27
Example: TunisiaExample: Tunisia
Gafsa: 2008. Gafsa: 2008. – Mining town, protests over corrupt hiringMining town, protests over corrupt hiring– Isolated, crushed (quarantined)Isolated, crushed (quarantined)– 28,000 Facebook users in Tunisia28,000 Facebook users in Tunisia
Sidi Bouzid: 2010Sidi Bouzid: 2010– Mohamed Mohamed BouaziziBouazizi’s self-immolation’s self-immolation– Protests spread (viral)Protests spread (viral)– Almost 2,000,000 Facebook users in Almost 2,000,000 Facebook users in
TunisiaTunisia
Thank you! Questions?Thank you! Questions?
Zeynep TufekciZeynep Tufekci
[email protected]@umbc.edu twitter: @techsoctwitter: @techsoc
www.technosociology.orgwww.technosociology.org