colberg, sandery, sakov, freeman, sakova, allen,...
TRANSCRIPT
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An integrated catchment and coastal
forecasting system for the Great Barrier Reef
Brassington, Tuteja, Stuart, TreleavenColberg, Sandery, Sakov, Freeman, Sakova, Allen, Laugesen,
Brinkman, Tonin, Beaman, Wilkin
ACOMO, Canberra, Oct 2016
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Mechanical stress
Thermal stress
Water quality stress
pH stress
Multiple and integrated stress
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NTCAusWAVE
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NTCAusWAVE eReefs
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Coastal ocean prediction system – design decisions
PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY – first system• Physical ocean – feasible/mature (apply methodologies from BLUElink)• Adoption of ROMS (non-trivial decision)• BGC – maturing/R&D challenge (CSIRO making good progress)• River discharge volume• River nutrients modelled by passive tracers/Lagrange particles
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500m
4km
SST
• ROMS-FC: • 4km: 512x128x30 ~2,000,000
• ROMS-HR:• 500m: 4327x1565x25 ~ 170,000,000
Simulations:1. Hindcast (2006 -2011)2. Nature run (2009-2011)3. Reanalysis EnOI/ EnKF
(2006 -2011)
Swaines
Palm Passage
Elusive Reef
• Bathymetry – blended product• GBR 100 (Rob Beaman, JCU)• GA Plus 250m (James Daniell)• GA 250m (Whitewell)
Model configuration
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Hindcast simulations
Himawari-8 night-time composite9 Jan 2016
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Modelled circulation
Yongala
Palm passage
Capricorn channel
Elusive reef
OB
SO
BS
MO
DE
LM
OD
EL
OB
SO
BS
MO
DE
LM
OD
EL
ROMS-HR +CFSR vs QIMOS/AIMS moorings
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PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY – first system• Physical ocean – feasible/mature (apply methodologies from BLUElink)• Adoption of ROMS (non-trivial decision)• BGC – immature/R&D challenge (CSIRO making good progress)• River nutrients modelled by passive tracers/Lagrange particles
OBSERVING SYSTEM• Real-time observations (deep water) - feasible• Lagoon observations – limited (R/T) require enhancement (Himawari-8, TGs)
Coastal ocean prediction system – design decisions
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Observations – real-time and delayed
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Himarwari-8
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PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY – first system• Physical ocean – feasible/mature (apply methodologies from BLUElink)• Adoption of ROMS (non-trivial decision)• BGC – immature/R&D challenge (CSIRO making good progress)• River nutrients modelled by passive tracers/Lagrange particles
OBSERVING SYSTEM• Real-time observations (deep water) - feasible• Lagoon observations – limited (R/T) require enhancement (Himawari-8, TGs)• Predictability transition (forced shallow chaotic shelf break)
Coastal ocean prediction system – design decisions
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Is the GBR well mixed?
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Is the GBR well mixed ?
Sandery et al., 10 yr GBR reanalysisMonthly correlation SST to BT
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PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY – first system• Physical ocean – feasible/mature (apply methodologies from BLUElink)• Adoption of ROMS (non-trivial decision)• BGC – immature/R&D challenge (CSIRO making good progress)• River nutrients modelled by passive tracers/Lagrange particles
OBSERVING SYSTEM• Real-time observations (deep water) - feasible• Lagoon observations – limited (R/T) require enhancement• Predictability transition (forced shallow chaotic shelf break)
DATA ASSIMILATION/ENSEMBLE FORECASTING• Ensemble KF vs Ensemble OI (not exploiting ROMS adjoint capability)
• Sample atmospheric forecast uncertainty• Sample river discharge uncertainty
FORCING SYSTEM• BRAN/OceanMAPS + TIDES• ACCESS-R + Ensemble perturbations• RIVER DISCHARGE (VOLUME + LOADS)
Coastal ocean prediction system – design decisions
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Coastal ocean – reanalysis
IMOS ABOM GHRSST AVHRR L3S night time analysis
Daily mean from 3-day forecast with overlay of unassimilated super observations
21 May 2009
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Coastal ocean – reanalysis
IMOS SRS ocean colour centred 3 day composite image from Aqua
satellite
Daily mean from 3-day forecast with overlay of unassimilated super observations
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Catchment monitoring
Great Barrier Reef Catchment Loads Monitoring Program (Australian and Queensland Govt.)
eReefs catchment forecasts will use near real time rainfall and water level stations
25 eReefs catchments~ 25 water quality monitoring locations
across the Reef catchments
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Catchment modeling
Water forecasts for most catchments meet performance benchmark (1st
stage – whole of catchment, daily)
Fitzroy at Rockhampton
Measured TSS (mg L-1
)
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400
Estim
ate
d T
SS
(m
g L
-1)
0
500
1000
1500
Mean prediction
1 to 1
5%
95%
Multivariate regression model for 7 water quality constituents (TSS, DIN, PN, DIP, PP, DON and DOP)
Reasonably good performance except for very few outliers
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Catchment system
eReefs
Catchment
Modelling
System
Daily forecasts (25)
ROMS
SHOC/RECOM
Operation-ready
registered user website
Derived web products
Water quality forecasts
Web and Data Services
BGC
Select
“best”
forecastHourly forecasts
(ungauged areas)
Hourly forecasts
(7 catchments)
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Catchment forecast services (daily updates)
Water quantity forecast Water quality forecast
Verification: water quantityVerification: water quality (annual load)
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ROMS-FC
ROMS-HR
Yellow: Catchment locationsRed: River mouth locations
• Methodology• Explicit modelling of estuaries • (1) Aim to preserve river volume• Balance between model stability and (1)
River channels
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Coastal ocean – river plumes
Upper: Modelled surface passive tracer (left) and associated age (right) are shown.
Lower: Surface salinity (left) and SST (right) during flooding period.
• Movement over reef northward. Further to the east southward movement within the EAC.
• River plumes tend to turn left hence moving northward over the southern hemisphere
• During this event, 2 westerly wind burst occur that advect the plume to the east
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eReefs Marine Water Quality DashboardIndicator: Chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl)
Date: W08 2009 (16/02/2009 - 22/02/2009)
100 km
Bright Earth e-Atlas Basemap v1.0 (AIMS, GBRMPA, JCU, DSITIA, GA, UCSD, NASA, OSM, ESRI) CC BY
Print - Map http://www.bom.gov.au/marinewaterquality/
1 of 2 2/02/16 12:05 PM
eReefs Marine Water Quality DashboardIndicator: Chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl)
Date: W09 2009 (23/02/2009 - 01/03/2009)
100 km
Bright Earth e-Atlas Basemap v1.0 (AIMS, GBRMPA, JCU, DSITIA, GA, UCSD, NASA, OSM, ESRI) CC BY
Print - Map http://www.bom.gov.au/marinewaterquality/
1 of 2 2/02/16 12:05 PM
Burdekin river plume - 2009
16 F
EB
-22 F
EB
23 F
EB
-1 M
AR
Burdekin flood 2009
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Integrated system – next steps
DEC 2017
JUN 2017
DEC 2016
Release of GBR Nature run Release of GBR reanalysis 1.0 => Draft paperHimawari-8 merged L2P data + Quality control
GBR reanalysis 2.0 [ROMS(4km)+EnKF]Forecast system [ROMS(4km)+EnKF+ACCESS]
Hindcast trial - ROMS(4km)+EnKF+ACCESSProbabilistic river tracer concentration mapsRiver particle density maps