cochise college center for economic research economic outlook benson, arizona

Cochise College Center for Economic Research

Economic OutlookBenson, Arizona


Is the recession over yet?


Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate


-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Jan 2007

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

No

v

Jan 2008

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

No

v

Jan 2009

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

No

v

Jan 2010

Mar

Compared to same month previous year


New constructionNew/existing home salesConsumer spending/confidenceStock market/investor confidence

Delinquent debt/foreclosuresEmployment


Slow, steady economic growth

Sustainability?Stabilization of labor marketDouble-dip recession?Inflation may become problematic in long term


Cochise County & Cochise County & BensonBenson


-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Jan 07

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan 08

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan 09

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan 10

Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year


-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

65%

75%

Jan 07

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

No

v

Jan 08

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

No

v

Jan 09

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

No

v

Jan 10

Mar


-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

No

v

Dec

Jan 08

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan 09

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan 10

Fab

Mar


Cochise County

2010: 4.7% *

2009: -3.2%2008: -6.5%2007: -1.3%

* Jan-Feb only

Benson (Retail Sales Tax Revenue)2010: 4.2%

*2009: -4.8%2008: 0.6%2007: 38.2%

* Jan-Mar only


-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Jan 07

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan 08

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan 09

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan 10

Mar

Cochise County Benson



Cochise County2010: -5.3%

*2009: 0.3%2008: 0.2%2007: 0.1%

Benson2010: -1.9% *2009: 9.1%2008: -0.6%2007: -3.1%

* Jan-Mar only


-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jan 07

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan 08

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan 09

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan 10

Mar




Cochise County2010: 3.2% *2009: -9.0%2008: 1.0%2007: 19.7%

Benson2010: 8.8% *2009: -5.5%2008: -7.5%2007: 17.6%

* Jan-Mar only


Retail on solid path of recoveryContinued strength in accommodation sales

Restaurant and bar trending downward


2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*

United States Arizona Cochise County Benson

* Jan-Apr only; seasonally adjusted


4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Jan 2008

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan 2009

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan 2010

Feb

Mar

Apr

United States Arizona Cochise County Benson

Seasonally Adjusted


-5.0%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

Jan

-08

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

-09

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Ju

n

Ju

l

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

-10

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

Compared to same month previous year


225

225

-150

-150

-300

-350

-475

-700

100

-100

425

-850 -650 -450 -250 -50 150 350 550

Federal Government

Professional and Business Services

Educational and Health Services

Information

Other Services

Manufacturing

Financial Activities

State and Local Government

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Leisure and Hospitality

Construction*

24 months ending Apr 2010

* Includes mining


8.7%

5.4%

4.2%

-4.0%

-5.2%

-11.0%

-32.2%

-13.6%

19.0%

-10.5%

-20.0%

-40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

Information

Federal Government

Educational and Health Services

Professional and Business Services

State and Local Government

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Other Services

Leisure and Hospitality

Financial Activities

Manufacturing

Construction*

24 months ending Apr 2010

* Includes mining


Stabilization in first half of 2010

Job growth in second halfUnemployment rate will remain high into 2011


Single Family Residential Building Permits

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Co

chis

e C

ou

nty

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Ben

son



Cochise County2010: 156

( 59.2%)*2009: 357 (-11.6%)2008: 404 (-14.4%)2007: 472 (-47.6%)2006: 900 (-18.8%)2005: 1,108 ( 5.9%)2004: 1,046 ( 13.0%)2003: 926

* Jan-Apr only

Benson2010: 25 (up from

18)**2009: 38 2008: 642007: 25 2006: 1042005: 52004: 22003: 0

**Jan-May only


1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Coch

ise

Coun

ty

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Bens

on



Cochise County2010: 252 (-29.0%)

*2009: 1,162 ( -1.9%)2008: 1,184 (-21.1%)2007: 1,500 (-10.4%)2006: 1,675 (-20.1%)2005: 2,097 ( 14.9%)

Benson2010: 21

( 16.7%)*2009: 101 ( -1.9%)2008: 103 (-28.0%)2007: 143 ( -0.7%)2006: 144 ( 0.7%)2005: 143 ( -5.9%)

* Jan-Mar only


$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 *

Benson Cochise County

*Jan-Mar only


Cochise County2010: $173,172 ( -

1.0%) *2009: $182,500 ( -0.8%)2008: $184,000 ( -5.6%)2007: $195,000 ( 1.3%)2006: $192,569 ( 10.7%)2005: $173,900 ( 24.3%)2004: $139,900

Benson2010: $146,563 ( -7.1%)

*2009: $155,000 ( 6.9%)2008: $145,000 ( -9.4%)2007: $160,000 ( 24.1%)2006: $128,950 ( 29.0%) 2005: $100,000 ( 21.6%) 2004: $80,250

* Jan-Mar only; comparison to same period a year prior


New residential construction on path of recovery

Existing home sales at bottomHome prices should continue to

hold or decline modestly


Recession is over (just not officially)

Benson and Cochise County fared better than many other areas

Major sectors of local economy have shown improvement

Employment continues to lag

cochise college center for economic research economic outlook benson, arizona

Documents

economic research slide

cochise college center

cochise county benson

adjusted slide

economic research inflation

economic research retail

economic research slow

mining slide