co-operations inside the carpathian region supporting ... filesupporting endogen territorial...
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Márton Péti PhD Deputy
Research Institute for National Strategy
Corvinus University of Budapest
Warsaw, 7 June 2016
Co-operations inside the Carpathian Region supporting endogen territorial development of
Central and Eastern Europe
Main topics: • Central Europe as a possible space for
transnational development cooperation • The Carpathian region as a field of initiating
cooperation inside Central Europe
Development track of Central-Europe
Source: Gál, Z. – ESPON ET2050, 2014
GDP per capita in 7 CEE countries in proportion to 12 Northern and Western European countries 1870 – 2010
Development level of Central-Europe In proportion to Western and Northern Europe
Last 5 years: CEE is still catching up but its growth is slower
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Egy
főre
jutó
GD
P a
z e
lőző
évi
szá
zalé
káb
an (
%)
V4+4 EU 15 Source: Eurostat CZ, HU, PL, SK, RO, BG, HR, SLO
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
PL SK RO BG CZE HR HU SLO Ukrajna V4+4
GD
P p
er
cap
ita
(EU
15
=10
0%
)
1995 2005 2010 2014Source: EUROSTAT, State Statistics Service of Ukraine (first UA data set is from 2001)
Various development tracks after the crisis: crisis proof countries, countries with rapid recovery, and others…
Regional disparities
Growing deviation of Regional GDPs
Source: EUROSTAT 2015. *: Data available only from 2001.
**: Data available only from 2003.
0,00
100,00
200,00
300,00
400,00
500,00
NU
TS2
szi
ntű
kü
lön
bsé
gek
(ad
atso
ri m
axim
um
és
min
imu
m h
ánya
do
sa) 2000 2014
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
NU
TS2
GD
P p
er
cap
ita
max
imu
m/m
inim
um
(%
)
2000 2013Source: Eurostat, Statistc Office of UA and SRB.
AUT BUL SLN HUN SLK CRO ROM UKR POL CZH V4+4 EU12
Difference between the extremities of regional GDP values
V4+4: CZ, HU, PL, SK, RO, BG, HR, SLO
Long term perspectives
Prognosis on development gap between the 12 new EU member
states and 15 old EU member states (along different scenarios of territorial
development)
Development of Central-Europe comparing to Western and Northern Europe
Source: Gál, Z. – ESPON ET2050, 2014.
Reasons behind the slower growth in CEE ESPON ET2050, 2014; Gál Z., 2014; Beblavy, 2010; Piatowsky ,2013; Matolcsy, 2015 ; Ábel et al., 2015; Gorzelak, 2015
• Growth are dependent from external resources • Competitiveness based on low salaries emigration, brain drain low added value
Gross value added in Visegrad and other central and eastern EU countries (EU15=100%)
Source of data: Eurostat
17%
27%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Gro
ss v
alu
e a
dd
ed
pe
r ca
pit
a in
Vis
egr
ad
cou
ntr
ies
(EU
R, E
U 1
5=1
00
%)
CZ, HU, PL, SK, RO, BG, HR, SLO
The growth potential is higher in this macro region
ESPON ET2050, 2014; Gál Z., 2014; Beblavy, 2010; Piatowsky ,2013; Matolcsy, 2015 ; Ábel et al., 2015; Gorzelak, 2015
Speeding up the growth by • more intensive R+D+I activities • fiscal balance • healthier structure of debt • higher employment
A more organic development track is needed.
Potentials for an organic growth
Source of data: Eurostat
Employment in some converegence countries of the EU (EU15=100%)
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Emp
loym
en
t ra
te (
EU 1
5=1
00
%)
V4+4 (CZ, HU, PL, SK, RO, BG, HR, SLO) PIGS (P, I, GR, ES)
UA, SRB
CEE cohesion countries Source of data: Global Footprint Network. National Footprint Accounts, 2015 Edition.
Major net contributors to the EU
EU 2
7 E
colo
gica
l fo
otp
rin
t
EU 2
7 B
ioca
pac
ity
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1,0
01234567
HD
I
Ecological footprint (global hectar per capita)
SR
HU
SW NL D DK
I
BE A
FI FR SL
CZ
PL SK
RO BG
UA
HR
UK
State of sustainability
Human Development Index and Ecological Footprint in some European countries (2011)
Territoriality of transnational development policies affecting Central Europe
EU Baltic Strategy
EU Danube Strategy and Danube Transnational Programme (ETC)
EU Central European Transnational Programme (ETC)
Visegrad Countires (V4)
Visegrad Countires and Romania and Bulgaria Spatial Planning and development cooperation (V4+2)
UN Carpathian Convention
Carpathian Region as a potential space for territorial cooperation
Carpathian Region
References to the Carpathian region in Hungarian policy documents:
• National Development and Territorial Development Concept:
• Hungary and Central Europe as a HUB • Generating Carpathian and Central European cooperation
by the development of regions inhabited by national minorities
• Partnership Agreement of Hungary 2014-20:
Common heritage as a resource of sustainable development in the Carpathian Region
Carpathian cooperative development Initiations by Hungary
References to the Carpathian region in Hungarian policy documents:
• „Wekerle Plan” Economic growth in the Carpathian Region
• Carpathian Common Home Development System
Carpathian cooperative development Initiations by Hungary
Central European countries: not dominant economic partners to each other
HUNGARY
Export Import
1. GER 1. GER
2. AUT 2. AUT ROMANIA
Export Import
1. GER 1. GER
2. ITA 2. ITA
UKRAINE
Export Import
1. RUS 1. RUS
2. TUR 2. CHN
SLOVAKIA
Export Import
1. GER 1. GER
2. CZE 2. CZE
AUSTRIA
Export Import
1. GER 1. GER
2. ITA 2. ITA
SLOVENIA
Export Import
1. GER 1. GER
2. ITA 2. ITA SERBIA
Export Import
1. ITA 1. GER
2. GER 2. RUS
CROATIA
Export Import
1. ITA 1. GER
2. BIH 2. ITA
POLAND
Export Import
1. GER 1. GER
2. GBR 2. RUS
CZECH REPUBLIC
Export Import
1. GER 1. GER
2. SVK 2. CHN
Source: http://comtrade.un.org/
HUNGARY
Export Import
3. ROM 3. RUS
4. SVK 4. SVK
5. ITA 5. POL
ROMANIA
Export Import
3. FRA 3. HUN
4. HUN 4. FRA
5. TUR 5. POL
UKRAINE
Export Import
3. EGY 3. GER
4. CHN 4. BLR
5. POL 5. POL
SLOVAKIA
Export Import
3. POL 3. CHN
4. AUT 4. RUS
5. HUN 5. KOR
AUSTRIA
Export Import
3. USA 3. CHN
4. CHE 4. CHE
5. FRA 5. CZE
SLOVENIA
Export Import
3. AUT 3. AUT
4. CRO 4. CHN
5. FRA 5. CRO SERBIA
Export Import
3. BIH 3. ITA
4. RUS 4. CHN
5. ROM 5. HUN
CROATIA
Export Import
3. SLO 3. SLO
4. GER 4. AUT
5. AUT 5. HUN
POLAND
Export Import
3. CZE 3. CHN
4. FRA 4. ITA
5. ITA 5. FRA
CZECH REPUBLIC
Export Import
3. POL 3. POL
4. UK 4. SVK
5. FRA 5. ITA
Central European countries: …although not dominant but quite important economic partners to each other
Source: http://comtrade.un.org/
Export/import to/from the other three V4 countries, 2003-2012, US dollar …and this importance is increasing
https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=PARTNER
Hungarian Trading houses in the Carpathian Region
• Kraków • Arad • Cluj Napoca • Târgu Mureș • Oradea • Sfântu Gheorghe • Odorheiu Secuiesc • Суботица /Subotica • Нови Сад /Novi Sad • Nové Zámky • Kráľovský Chlmec • Rimavská Sobota • Košice • Dunajská Streda • Osijek • Lendava • Берегове/Berehove • Ужгород /Uzshorod
Colorful societies in Central-Europe: large number of autochton national minorities
Number of
minority
languages*
Population
(million capita
2014)**
Number of minority
languages per
million capita
V4+4+2 (CZ, SK, HU, PL, BG, HR, SL,
RO, UA, SB) 107 149,4 0,716
EU 12 42 334,1 0,126
Source: *European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages , European Council http://www.coe.int/t/dg4/education/minlang/AboutCharter/LanguagesCovered.pdf ** Eurostat
Hunga-rians
Ger-mans
Slovakians
Ukranians
Romanians
Serbs Croats
Slo venes
Bulgarians
Poles Czechs
Hungary X X X X X X X X X -
(Aust./Germ.) X - - - X X X - - -
Slovakia X X X - - - - - X X
Ukraine X X - X - - - X X -
Romania X X - X X - - X - -
Serbia X X X X X X X X - -
Croatia X - - - - X X - - X
Slovenia X - - - - X X - - -
Bulgaria - - - X X X - - - -
Poland - X X X - - - - - X
Czech Republic
- X X X - - - - - X
Carpathian nations: majority in one CE state and minority in other CE states
National minorities for brokering mutual economic relations and growth
Economic actors of national
minorities living outside
Economy of the host
country of the minorities
National economy
Mutual benefits
Keeping capital and income inside Central-Europe
Pilot projects involving Hungarians living outside of Hungary in the Carpathian Region
