Closing the Gap? The Global South’s Prospects

• Asia, Africa, and Latin America in a similar economic position four decades ago

: now huge income gaps among them.

• Countries in East Asia: the top position

• Latin America: in the middle

• Africa: on the bottom.

: some African countries have deteriorated since 1960

• is it possible for the Global South to escape the vicious cycle of poverty?

• those Global South states that have fossil fuels

: 12 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)

• NIEs (semiperiphery)

: newly industrialized countries in Asia

: Asian Tigers - South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong

• can other Global South emulate their success?

• how about China?

• what kind of catch-up models could they adopt?

Rising Power: China

As workers tried to demolish his home last month in Shenyang, this man hurled a firebomb at them

Police and military forces awaited a protest over water pollution in Xin Chang on July 18, 2005

Land of 74,000 Protests

• a growing uneasiness in China

: increasingly bold protests rolling across the countryside.

: from rampant industrial pollution to widespread evictions and land seizures by corrupt local governments in cahoots with property developers

: inequality

• ''There are a great many socioeconomic factors to stimulate protest, such as the increasing gap between rich and poor... But the masses are angry basically because of abuse of power by party officials. … the perception is that the officials don't want to pursue the state's interests, so much as pursue their own interests -- both legal and illegal.''

- Wu Guoguang, a former government adviser and People's Daily editorialist

• the 74,000 mass incidents, or demonstrations and riots occurred in 2004: an increase from 58,000 the year before: only 10,000 a decade ago: hundreds of these events each week

• other signs of concern : a notice by the armed forces warning soldiers

- they would be ''severely penalized'' for taking part in petitions or demonstrations.

• The Communist government warned : citizens to obey the law, saying threats to social order would

not be tolerated• many Chinese identify

: official corruption as the biggest source of their woes.

• the Chinese system of government: based on a monopolization of power by the Communist Party

- inhibits transparency - prevents the development of the kinds of checks and

balances

Zbigniew Brzezinski vs. John Mearsheimer

• Is China more interested in money than missiles?

• are the U.S. and China destined to fight it out?

• will China push the U.S. out of Asia?

Brzezinski Mearsheimer

liberalist realist

optimistic pessimistic

- theory is retrospective

- sometimes theory does not work

- we need theory

- theory helps us to predict the future (2025)

- China is assimilating into the international system

- (military) confrontation is less likely to happen

- new Cold War

- (military) confrontation is more likely to happen

make money, not war better to be Godzilla than Bambi

- not inclined to challenge the U.S. militarily

- cautious foreign policy prevails

- China cannot rise peacefully

- China has a vested interest to causing troubles in the U.S.’s backyard

- determined to sustain its economic growth

: other political realities – the 2008 Olympic Games, the 2010 World Expo

: a confrontational FP could disrupt economic growth and threaten the Communist Party’s hold on power

- other factors (nationalism, Taiwan issues) override economic considerations

- now concentrates on building their economy to the point where it is bigger that the U.S. economy

: translates economic strength into military might

- the Chinese leaderships: more flexible and sophisticated than previous challengers

- they are not more principled, more ethical, less nationalistic that the Westerners

- China increases its regional preeminence

- but China cannot push the U.S. out of East Asia

- it does not have a military capability

- it is vulnerable to an isolation enforced by the U.S.

- Japan has an impressive military program

- China attempts to be a regional hegemon

- China will try to push the U.S. out of Asia

- in 2025 when China has a much larger GNP and a more formidable military than it has today

A. Modernization Theory

• modernization theory: dominant in the 1950s and 1960s.

• the underdevelopment: posed by the Global South’ own internal characteristics

• after independence, many advocates of economic development: the former colonies

- emulate the Global North : a central belief

- all societies go through similar stages of development. (1) underdevelopment (2) take-off, and (3) modernity

• “Washington consensus”: free markets

- bring about economic growth and wealth: create conditions for efficient production, free

enterprise, and free trade: pass through stages of development and reach “take off”: everyone would enjoy the benefits: the gap between the rich and the poor is reduced: the Global South

- similar to the Global North

• Western Europe and the U.S.: models of development for the rest of the world

• critics: ignore specific problems and conditions in Global

South: disregard these areas’ historical, cultural, economic,

and political differences: tend to treat African, Asian, and Latin American

societies as a monolithic group

The Great Divide in the Global Village

• critics

: historical conditions that allowed the North to do this in the 19th century do not exist now

• per capita incomes between 1970 – 1995

: in the richest one-third of countries rose by annual 1.9 %

: in the middle third went up by 0.7 %

: the bottom third no increase

• foreign direct investment rose sevenfold between 1980 and 1997

: but little has gone to the poorest countries

: 70% between rich countries

: 8 Global South received 20%

: 100 poor nations received only 10%

• free markets offer opportunities for all

: but opportunities do not guarantee results

• most of poor countries

: not able to take advantage of free market access

• the traditional advantage of the Global South

: in primary commodities (agriculture and minerals)

- they have shrunk from 70 % of world trade in 1900 to 20% in 1990s

B. Dependency Theory and World System Theory• based on Marxism

: capitalism is a cause of inequality• Latin America• the relationship between the advanced

capitalism (the core) and the Global South (the periphery): exploitative

• underdevelopment: a product of the Global South’ structural

position / colonialism

• Andre Gunder Frank • the study of chronic underdevelopment in

Latin America• dependency

: a condition of retarded economic growth - results from the Global South’

subordination - structural exploitation by the Global

North

a. Dependency theory

• Dominance-dependence relationship between North and South

• dependent countries

: vulnerable to penetration by outside forces (MNCs, IMF, World Bank)

• Global North keeps Global South poor through

: terms of free trade and finance (international market, IMF’s loans)

: exploitation by multinational corporations (Exxon Mobil, GM etc.)

: foreign direct investment

• share dependency theorist’s view

• Wallerstein

• core

: advanced capitalist states

: specializes in producing “advanced goods”

• periphery

: developing states

: specializes in producing commodities and low-technology goods

• semiperiphery

: states either advancing toward core (Asian Tigers) or descending to periphery

b. World System Theory

• the relationship between the core and the periphery

: established by colonialism.

• Global South continue to be

: suppliers of raw materials

: importers of manufactured products from rich industrial countries.