Productivity growth and innovation in the long run

OECD – NBER Conference 25 – 26 September 2014

Summing up

Gilbert Cette Banque de France and AMSE

Summing up

Very rich conference on productivity

Difficult task to propose a summing up

Gives the state of the knowledge and of the debate on many aspects of this topic:

Yesterday, long-term productivity trends • In the past and in the future • Impact of certain ‘headwinds’ (as by Gordon): Inequalities, sustainability…

Today, main drivers of productivity • Technical progress and knowledge diffusion • Organisational changes • Network issues

Summing up

Not going to propose a summary Propose to raise some important points coming from

presentations and debates:

What, from my point of view…

… was consensual

… was not consensual

… other points, for future conferences?

Summing up

What was consensual

Importance of sustainability dimensions of GDP and productivity growth • Growing inequalities and associated decreasing social

mobility (session 2, William and Andrew) • Climate change risks and consequences (session 3, Michael

and Frederik)

But… have to consider that… • In growth and productivity research, usually, or these

dimensions are the central topic of the research, or they are just mentioned

• In growth and productivity conference, they get some specific sessions

• They are not really included in research on long period

Summing up

What was consensual

Numerous drivers of productivity • Human capital (session 1, Francesco) • Speed of adoption of technological innovation (session 1,

Diego) • Aglomeration (session 6, William and Gilles) • Between firms, from factor allocation (section 7, Chad and

Ufuk) • At the firm level, management, organisation, skill… (session

5, Nicholas and Luis). New and dynamic field of research All these factors are influenced by institutions No policy recommandation!!! But…

Summing up

What was not consensual

The future of productivity growth (Session 4, Robert and Joel) • The debate concerned essentially the US economy, but the

facts concerns all developped countries

Average annual growth rate of labour productivity per hour Smoothed indicator Whole economy – 1891-2012 – In % Source : Bergeaud, Cette and Lecat (2014)

Summing up

What was not consensual

The future of productivity growth (Session 4, Robert and Joel) • The debate concerned essentially the US economy, but the

facts concerns all developped countries • The problem is not completely the same for non-US

countries: They do not benefit completely from the ICT revolution

ICT capital coefficient (x100), at current prices (Ratio of ICT capital stock to GDP in current prices) Scope: The whole economy – 1970-2013 Source: Cette, Clerc and Bresson (2014)

Summing up

What was not consensual

The future of productivity growth (Session 4, Robert and Joel) • The debate concerned essentially the US economy, but the

facts concerns all developped countries • The problem is not completely the same for non-US

countries: They do not benefit completely from the ICT revolution

• Why?

Here again, economic policy is not useless!

Summing up

Other points, for next conferences? Macro aspects

The question of the cost of the crisis, in terms of productivity Impact on level? Trend? Transitory? Permanent?

Betweeen productivity and GDP per capita, interveine several variables as participation rates

What we currently observe on this field is completely the opposate to what was observed after the first oil shock (Prescott 2004, …): Divergence between Europe : increase

US : decrease

Summing up

Very rich and stimulating conference

Useful to debate on productivity topics: still puzzles and questions

Thanks a lot to the organisers Hope that other conferences like this one will be regularly

organised