CLIMATIC TRENDS WITH REFERENCE TO SMALL IRRIGATION MANAGEMENT IN NEPAL

Keshav P. Sharma

Farmer Managed Irrigation Systems (FMIS) Promotion Trust

International Seminar on "Irrigation in Local Adaptation and Resilience" 11-12 April 2017

11 April 2017

LOCATIONS

2

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!(!(!(

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KAKANI

RAMPUR

SIMARI

BUTWAL

NUWAKOT

SOKTIMTE

DUMKAULI

TAULIHAWA

OKHALDHUNGA

GAIDA (KANKAI)

SINDHULI GADHI

SIMARA AIRPORT

LUMBINI MANDIR

ILAM TEA ESTATE

JANAKPUR AIRPORT KANYAM TEA ESTATE

KATHMANDU AIRPORT

BHAIRAHAWA (AGRIC)

909

902

727

721

716

707

706

705

704703

1422

1421

1415

1412

1411

1409

1407

1206

1111

1110

1107

1030

1007

1004

Meteorological Stations in Project Area Legend

Precipitation

!( Climate

Elevation

mHigh : 8763.09

Low : 44

0 100 20050 Kilometers

±

River,Location Basin

Area (km2)

Banganga, Taulihawa 187

Girwari, Nawalparasi 52

Likhu, Nuwakot 146

Kamala/Gadauli, Sindhuli 570/25

Biring/Kali, Jhapa 61/26

NATURE OF WATER AVAILABILITY

3

Predicted Low Flow Condition = 500 L/s

Measured Low Flow Condition = 97 L/s

Predicted Low Flow Condition = 1900 L/s

Measured Low Flow Condition = 1020 L/s

CLIMATIC ISSUES

4(Nepal, 2015)

DHM, 2012

TEMPERATURE TRENDS

5

Nepal (1971-2012)

Tmax Tmin Tave

0.11 -0.04 0.025(DHM/NHMRC, 2015)

(IPCC,

2014)

6

y = 0.0012x + 39.681

R² = 9E-05

y = 0.0219x - 38.595

R² = 0.0449

y = 0.0221x - 19.255

R² = 0.3853

y = 0.0271x - 35.257

R² = 0.3614

y = 0.017x - 2.9998

R² = 0.1946

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Te

mp

era

ture

(o

C)

Temperature: Bhairahawa Airport (Stn No. 705)

EXMAX EXMIN Average MinAve MaxAve

7

y = 0.3678x - Ta

R² = 0.1665

y = 0.2291x - Ta

R² = 0.1362

0

50

100

150

200

250

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

NU

MB

ER

OF

DA

YS

Hot Days and Cold Days in Bhairahawa Airport

(Station No. 705)

Number of hot days Number of cold days

7 Dec 2016(NSA Terra Satellite, 2016)

TEMPERATURE TRENDS (OC/YEAR)

8

Index

NoLocation Maximum Minimum

Average Extreme Average Extreme Mean

1030 Kathmandu 0.069 0.058 0.033 0.043 0.051

1206 Okhaldhunga 0.058 0.052 0.035 0.000 0.035

909 Simara 0.008 0.005 0.022 -0.011 0.015

1111 Janakpur 0.010 0.020 0.030 -0.020 0.019

705 Bhairahawa 0.017 0.001 0.027 0.022 0.022

PRECIPITATION TRENDS

9

Nepal

Pmax 31 mm/yr

Pmin -42 mm/yr

Pave 0.7 mm/yr

DHM/NHMRC, 2015

(IPCC, 2015)

PRECIPITATION TRENDS

10

y = -0.0843x + 1815.4

R² = 1E-05

y = -2.6326x + 6654.5

R² = 0.0124

y = -31.536x + 64941

R² = 0.2605

y = -23.157x + 47858

R² = 0.1942

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Pre

cip

ita

tio

n (

mm

)PRECIPITATION: BHAIRAHAWA AIRPORT (STN NO. 705)

Annual Monsoon Recent: Annual Recent: Monsoon

11

12

y = 3.5873x - 4569.1

R² = 0.0189

y = 2.4631x - 2704.6

R² = 0.0097

y = -65.938x + 134916

R² = 0.4561

y = -30.589x + 63639

R² = 0.0929

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015

Pre

cip

itat

ion

(m

m)

PRECIPITATION BELUWA-GIRWARI (STN NO. 0704)

Annual Monsoon Recent: Annual Recent: Monsoon

13

14

y = -0.811x + 1939.2

R² = 0.0122

y = -0.0777x + 243.29

R² = 0.0022

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Pre

cip

ita

tio

n (

mm

)

7-day Precipitation during Monsoon: Bhairahawa Airport (Stn. No. 0705)

7-Day Maximum 7-Day Average

15

y = 0.1001x + 39.962

R² = 0.0092

y = 0.4227x - 679.68

R² = 0.0786

y = 0.5423x - 970.15

R² = 0.0817

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

NU

MB

ER

OF

DA

YS

RAINLESS PERIOD IN BHAIRAHAWA - ANNUAL

2 consecutive days 7 Consecutive days 15 consecutive days

16

y = -0.0216x + 45.542

R² = 0.0303

y = -0.0191x + 46.557

R² = 0.0071

y = -0.076x + 189.39

R² = 0.0257

y = -0.0698x + 212.22

R² = 0.0094

y = -0.8316x + 1706.3

R² = 0.5116

y = -1.0649x + 2209.7

R² = 0.4126

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

No

. o

f ra

iny

da

ys

PRECIPITATION DAYS: BHAIRAHAWA AIRPORT (STN NO. 0705)

Recent Trends: >10 mm Greater Than 50 mm Greater Than 10 mm

Greater Than 1 mm Recent Trends: >10 mm Recent Trends: >1 mm

EXTREME EVENTS

17

Singeghat irrigation scheme with the highest flood level observed on 27 July 2016.

Q = 566 m3/s

100 year

precipitation

on 30 June-1 July

2015 1 May 2016

in Giruwari

50 Year Flood

CLIMATE PROJECTIONS

18

19

20

CONCLUSIONS

RECOMMENDATION: INFORMATION-BASED RESILIENCE

21

Update/Upgrade Reference Station

Involve stakeholders and communities in

Weather/Climate Monitoring

Promote Research

Start

Monitoring

Information: Climate and Weather Information: Real Time, Predictions, Projections

and Long-Term Assessments.

Reduce

Data Gap