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Journal of Earth Science, Vol. 27, No. 1, p. 123–129, February 2016 ISSN 1674-487X Printed in China DOI: 10.1007/s12583-016-0622-7

Oh, H., Shin, H.-J., 2016. Climatic Classification over Asia during the Middle Holocene Climatic Optimum Based on PMIP Models. Journal of Earth Science, 27(1): 123–129. doi:10.1007/s12583-016-0622-7. http://en.earth-science.net

Climatic Classification over Asia during the Middle Holocene Climatic Optimum Based on PMIP Models

Hyuntaik Oh*1, Ho-Jeong Shin2

1. Center for Marine Environmental Impact Assessment, National Fisheries Research and Development Institute, Gijang-Gun, Busan 61975, Korea

2. Ocean Circulation and Climate Research Division, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, Sangrok-gu, Ansan-si 15627, Korea

ABSTRACT: When considering potential global warming projections, it is useful to understand the im-pact of each climate condition at 6 kyr before present. Asian paleoclimate was simulated by performing an integration of the multi-model ensemble with the paleoclimate modeling intercomparison project (PMIP) models. The reconstructed winter (summer) surface air temperature at 6 kyr before present was 0.85 ºC (0.21 ºC) lower (higher) than the present day over Asia, 60ºE–150ºE, 10ºN–60ºN. The seasonal variation and heating differences of land and ocean in summer at 6 kyr before present might be much larger than present day. The winter and summer precipitation of 6 kyr before present were 0.067 and 0.017 mm·day-1 larger than present day, respectively. The Group B climate, which means the dry climates based on Köppen climate classification, at 6 kyr before present decreased 17% compared to present day, but the Group D which means the continental and microthermal climates at 6 kyr before present increased over 7%. Comparison between the results from the model simulation and published paleo-proxy record agrees within the limited sparse paleo-proxy record data. KEY WORDS: paleoclimate modeling intercomparison project (PMIP), paleoclimate, global warming, Asian continent.

0 INTRODUCTION The research on paleoclimate is important in order to under-

stand the causes of climate changes, so that possible future cli-mate condition can be projected. And, it is possible to test the capability of climate models for climate changes simulations (Joussaume et al., 1999; Texier et al., 1997). To understand and predict the climate variation and climate system, researchers need to use a high quality climate system model such as the general circulation model (GCM). The recent success of climate modeling by GCMs seems to offer an opportunity. In order to reveal the climate change during the Middle Holocene, the GCM is probably necessary to improve our understanding of climate, but other tools are also necessary (Karl and Trenberth, 2003). Although there is a broad agreement among models, there are still many differences in the details of their predictions. Such models can also be used to simulate past climate conditions. Paleoclimate proxy record such as pollen, foraminifera, and stable isotopes can be used to evaluate the results from models (Crowley, 2000; Haywood et al., 2000).

The GCMs have proven their usefulness to investigate mechanisms of past climate changes (Braconnot et al., 2000; Joussaume et al., 1999). The paleoclimate modeling intercom- *Corresponding author: [email protected] © China University of Geosciences and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2016 Manuscript received April 14, 2014. Manuscript accepted November 25, 2014.

parison project (PMIP) was initiated in order to coordinate and encourage the systematic study of GCMs. And, the PMIP was initiated to assess their ability to simulate large changes of climate such as those that occurred in the distant past (Bracon-not et al., 2007a). The PMIP participants agreed to focus in-itially on a specific period in the past: the Middle Holocene climate occurring 6 000 years ago, which corresponds to global warming conditions that are relatively well known (Jansen et al., 2008). Generally, the Holocene climate optimum was a warm period during roughly the interval 9 000 to 5 000 years before present (BP) globally (Rossignol-Strick, 1999). The Middle Holocene was a period roughly from 7 000 to 5 000 years ago (Zhou et al., 2004; Xiao et al., 2002). In this study, the Middle Holocene means roughly 6 000 before present, which was warmer than present day (Joussaume and Taylor, 2000). The research on climate characteristics at 6 kyr BP with the model and observation data has actively been continued (Braconnot et al., 2012; Harrison et al., 1998). Due to the above mentioned reliability of climate data, many GCM groups have tried to reproduce the Middle Holocene climate using a GCM. Many simulated climate variables have been matched with the geological evidences in Asia (Chen et al., 2008; Braconnot et al., 2007b; Yu et al., 2000), America (Harrison et al., 1998), Europe (Braconnot et al., 2000; Masson et al., 1998), North-west Austria and New Guinea (Miller et al., 2005; Wyrwoll and Miller, 2001), and the Pacific Ocean (Liu et al., 2003; Yu et al., 2000).

The data used in this study are the result of PMIP activi-

Hyuntaik Oh and Ho-Jeong Shin

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ties, which involves 18 GCMs, using an integration of the mul-ti-model ensemble. This study focuses on the simulation of climatic features during the Middle Holocene climatic optimum and Köppen climate classification. For comparison of model outputs, paleoenvironmental proxy data was used. This study may not only provide a chance to simulate climate features during the Middle Holocene climatic optimum and climate classification over Asian continent, but also provide a chance to examine the climate impacts of orbital forcing on global warm-ing climate change.

1 DATA AND METHOD

We use 18 PMIP outputs which have been focused on cli-mate simulation during the Middle Holocene, 6 kyr BP. The si-mulations at 6 kyr BP differ from the present day (PD) in at least two respects: orbital parameters and atmospheric CO2 (Braconnot et al., 2004; Joussaume et al., 1999). The experimental design was simplified in order to isolate particular aspects of the model re-sponse while giving the forcing conditions during 6 kyr BP same as those value of PD for sea surface temperature (SST), sea ice cover, snow free albedo, ice sheets, and topography. Due to the precession of the equinox, the change of insolation pattern consi-dered the most important change between PD (present insolation) and 6 kyr BP (6 kyr BP insolation). Thus, the PMIP experiment on the Middle Holocene cannot be expected to yield complete aggreement with paleodata. For the CO2 concentration at 6 kyr BP, the preindustrial level of 280 ppm was used for the model run (Lorenz and Lohmann, 2004).

In this research, we use the standard output, which is sug-gested by the PMIP. Most simulations have now been com-pleted by the PMIP modeling groups and have been stored at the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) (Covey et al., 2000). The database version of 28/01/2004 is used for all figures. The output has been inte-grated anywhere from 8 to 30 years with the orbital parameters at 6 kyr BP and PD. PMIP experiments have been performed by 18 groups, including the YONU (Yonsei University) GCM in South Korea (Iorio and Guilderson, 2002). Each group cal-culated the climatological statistics, with an averaging period of data ranging between 8 and 30 years. Each model performed a spin up run prior to the climatological period of 1 to 10 years. Each model has its own grid resolutions. Re-gridded data reso-lutions are all 2.5º longitude×2.5º latitude. These re-gridding programs are designed for preserving the mass mean values.

We used a climate classification devised by Wladimir Köppen. As a tool for representing the general pattern of cli-mates, the Köppen classification has been the best-known and still widely used (Peel et al., 2007). It uses only easily obtained monthly and annual mean values of temperature and precipita-tion. Furthermore, the criteria are specific, relatively simple to apply, and practically dividing the world into climate regions. We used the Global Paleovegetation Mapping Project (BIOME 6000) to evaluate the model simulations of the 6 kyr BP over Asia with a realistic paleoclimate record (Harrison and Prentice, 2003). Based on the paleo proxy data of pollen, BIOME gives a global distribution of the vegetation between 6 kyr BP and PD. Some species which are sensitive to climate change have been studied in lake and coastal areas during the Middle Holocene

over Asia including China and Japan (Harrison et al., 2001; Takahara et al., 2000; Yu et al., 2000). 2 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 2.1 Temperature and Precipitation

In annual mean downward shortwave radiation at the top of atmosphere, the values of 6 kyr BP and PD are 343.84 and 344.61 W·m-2 over study area respectively (60ºE–150ºE, 10ºN–60ºN), primarily due to the precession of the equinox. The difference in annual mean insolation between 6 kyr BP minus PD is -0.77 W·m-2. The mean insolation during winter at 6 kyr BP is dimi-nished regionally by about 2–19 W·m-2, while it increases by about 17–22 W·m-2 during summer compared to the insolation at PD. These changes are equivalent to about 0–7% during summer, compared to the insolation at PD. The Asian monsoon during the Middle Holocene links to the solar changes and climate variability (Wang et al., 2005; Mayewski et al., 2004). These differences in solar forcing may influence climate change significantly and make a stronger monsoon during the Middle Holocene (Bond et al., 2001; van Geel et al., 1999).

The annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) over study area of 6 kyr BP and PD is 13.05 and 13.34 ºC, respec-tively. The reconstructed SAT shows a similar pattern between 6 kyr BP and PD. In comparison with the reconstructed climate using paleo proxy data, the models produce well the warm summer over study area in the Middle Holocene (Fig. 1a). The mean SAT differences show about a 0.5 ºC increase above 50º latitude. Except regions above 50º latitude, the mean SAT at 6 kyr BP was 0.4–1.4 ºC lower than PD. Especially it decreased in the northern Indian monsoon area and land area of East Asia. The reconstructed winter surface air temperature at 6 kyr BP was lower than PD due to the reduced shortwave radiation at the TOA. The mean winter (December–January–February) surface air temperature of the 6 kyr BP is 0.85 ºC lower than PD, owing to the land differences, especially in the northern Indian and China (Fig. 1b). The reason for considerable tem-perature differences in land area compared with those of the ocean was due to the reflection of model configuration that fixed the same SST between 6 kyr BP and PD (Crucifix et al., 2002; Joussaume and Taylor, 2000). This response is consistent with the proxy-derived temperature changes in winter, inferred from deep sea sedimentary cores at 6 kyr BP (Wanner et al., 2008; Shin et al., 2006). Such cooling may be the primary cause of the slightly delayed with respect to temperature re-sponse over land areas.

The mean summer (June–July–August) surface air tem-perature 6 kyr BP is 0.21 ºC higher than that of PD; primarily due to the temperature differences in the continent above 40ºN latitude (Fig. 1c). The simulated Middle Holocene temperature during July is much warmer than the simulated value of July at PD due to the increased insolation compared to the PD. It is reported that Kuroshio warm current’s activity was very active at the Middle Holocene (Razjigaeva et al., 2002; Korotky et al., 2000). The paleo proxy records such as pollen distribution patterns also showed that the warm climate indicator species occurred at the higher latitude in Asia (Yu et al., 2000, 1998). In particular, significant temperature differences are shown in the Far East Asia (Fig. 1). The summer surface air temperature


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of Middle Holocene and present shows a similar pattern (Mac-Cracken, 2008; Yuan et al., 2004; Kattenberg et al., 1996). The SAT differences in summer at 6 kyr BP were 0.1–0.5 ºC, slightly lower than the PD because of the plentiful precipitation of central China. The abundant rainfall had the effect of shift-ing the northern boundary of temperate deciduous forests shifted to the north about 800 km, and regions of the broad-leaved evergreen forest also shifted about 300–400 km to the north (Yu et al., 2000). The reconstructed SAT at 6 kyr BP simulates an increased seasonal cycle of temperature than PD. The Asian monsoon system caused asynchronous Holocene climate over East Asia, proxy records suggest the climate

Figure 1. Distributions of the climatological mean surface air temperature

differences (ºC) between 6 kyr BP minus PD in Asia, differences in annual

SAT (a), winter SAT (b), and summer SAT (c).

system was asynchronous among different regions in East Asia (Zhao et al., 2009; Chen et al., 2008; He et al., 2004). We as-sume from our model results that the monsoonal activity at 6 kyr BP was more active than PD similar to the proxy record of the Middle Holocene (Sun et al., 2005; An et al., 2000). The simulated results can be useful tool to the understanding and interpretation of regional paleoenvironmental proxy data, when those records are asynchronous among different regions.

In the reconstructed annual precipitation field, the amount of precipitation at 6 kyr BP is nearly the same as PD in most study area above 35ºN latitude (Fig. 2a). The enhanced precipi-tation regions in the Middle Holocene were the northern Indian,

Figure 2. Distributions of the climatological mean precipitation differences

(mm/day) between 6 kyr BP minus PD in Asia, indicates differences in annual

precipitation (a), winter precipitation (b), and summer precipitation (c).


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show that the reconstructed precipitation of 6 kyr BP over and several regions above 50ºN latitude. Especially, the results northern Indian Peninsula was about 0.5–1.0 mm·day-1 more abundant than the value of PD. However, the precipitation decreased at the low latitude around 10ºN during the 6 kyr BP compared to that of PD.

The mean winter precipitation of 6 kyr BP is 0.067 mm·day-1 larger than the value at PD. However, central China, Taklimakan and Gobi desert areas show -0.2– -0.4 mm·day-1 lower precipitation values than PD (Fig. 2b). The mean sum-mer precipitation of the 6 kyr BP is 0.017 mm·day-1 larger than PD. It especially increased in the northern Indian monsoon area and northern regions over the Asia. The tropical belt, including the Indian Ocean from the Indian Peninsula to the Korean Pe-ninsula, moved to further northwards regions and strengthened at 6 kyr BP from model results (Fig. 2c). We assume that this caused more precipitation than PD over the northern India Pe-ninsula. The precipitation near Indonesia below 20°N latitude, one of the most abundant rainfall region in the earth at the

present climate, became somewhat diminished over the ocean, Tailand and Burma (12ºN–16ºN, 95ºE–105ºE).

2.2 Climate Classification

In this study, Köppen climate classification was applied to the output of multi-model ensemble with PMIP models as a diagnostic tool for GCM (Kottek et al., 2006; Shin et al., 2004; Lohmann et al., 1993). We analyzed global scale climate classi-fication and Asian continent in this study. At present climate, some of the grid-regions of the Sahara Desert classified in Class BS, BWh, and BWk climate were divided into Class Cw and Cf climate at 6 kyr BP (Fig. 3a). The African continent adjacent to Morocco and Egypt was classified as Class C cli-mate at 6 kyr BP instead of Class B climate at PD. The area of the Steppe and Savanah biomass also reduced toward the north at 6 kyr BP. The region adjacent to the Sahara Desert at 6 kyr BP was more humid than PD. A comparison between the re-sults from the model simulation and published paleo proxy records well agree within the limited sparse paleo proxy record

Figure 3. Distributions of the climate class according to the Köppen climate classification in Asian continent, global (a) and over Asian continent (b) climate

class at 6 kyr BP.


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(Gupta et al., 2003; Prell and van Campo, 1986). The reconstructed Class B climate such as desert regions,

including Class BS, BWh, and BWk climate, was reduced to-ward the west during the Middle Holocene due to an increase of summer precipitation over desert regions (Fig. 3b). The Class C climate was systematically shifted toward the north at 6 kyr BP due to the increase of summer precipitation. The for-est biomass in China at 6 kyr BP was shifted towards the north and extended westwards compared to the present (Yu et al., 2000; Prentice and Webb III, 1998). The summer precipitation change between 6 kyr BP minus PD represents about 20%–40% increase in desert regions and about 10% increase in the central part of China. In general, classes B and C climates are greatly affected by summer precipitation and temperature. Therefore, Class B climate decreased, while Class C climate systematically extended toward the north. However, winter precipitation decreased over land areas.

The Class B climate during 6 kyr BP was diminished about 2.1% globally, and 17% over study area than PD (Fig. 4). In this study, we more focused on the Asian continent, because it is a vast area reaching polar regions to equatorial regions and contains diverse climate type (Shin et al., 2004). However, the areal ratio of Class D climate was extended to the south about 6.5% globally, and about 7 % over Asian continent compared with PD. Therefore, the decrease in Class B climate over Asian continent at 6 kyr BP was bigger than that of the global decrease at the same period compared to the PD. This was related to the occupied areal ratio of Class B climate over Asian continent being greater than the global value during Middle Holocene.

The reconstructed climate at 6 kyr BP over Japan and the southern part of China were similar to the modern climate. The

observed tree distributions at 6 kyr BP over Japan were rather similar to PD (Gotanda et al., 2002; Takahara et al., 2000). Therefore we suggest that the changes in the climate and bio-climate of Japan and southern part of China have been small since the Middle Holocene. The reconstructed climate at 6 kyr BP over the Korean Peninsula shows that Class Dfa climate oc-cupied central and northern regions in the Korean Peninsula, but Class Cfa dominated southern regions in the Korean Peninsula. It is reported that the cool-temperate central and montane forest existed during the Middle Holocene in the eastern area of the Korean Peninsula (Yi, 2011). Because biomass distributions in the Korean Peninsula were different from Japan at 6 kyr BP (Ta-kahara et al., 2000), climate and bioclimate between the Korean Peninsula and Japan have been different since at least 6 kyr BP.

Because winter insolation in the northern mid-latitude was less than today, a warm winter at 6 kyr BP in Asia continent is contrary to what would be expected in terms of the radioactive effects of orbital changes during the Middle Holocene (Prentice and Jolly, 2000; Shi et al., 1993). A weakening of the Asian continent winter monsoon was related to the persistent exis-tence of the strengthened greenhouse effect caused by increas-ing water resources in summer at 6 kyr BP. In the reconstructed winter evaporation field, the amount of evaporation at 6 kyr BP was about 0.13 mm·day-1 more abundant than the value of PD, it caused the winter precipation at 6 kyr BP is nearly the same as PD in most of Asian continent. Because realistic topographi-cal features are not simulated in PMIP models, climate classifi-cation may be less detailed. More systematic and wide applica-tions of the PMIP output should be done in the future to ade-quately assess its performance, and to provide information on the effect over Asian continent.

6FIX Climate

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Figure 4. Areal ratio (%) in each climate class according to the Köppen climate classification the areal ratio between 6 kyr BP and PD in globe (a) and in Asian

continent (b).

3 CONCLUSION

This study focuses on the simulation of climate features during the Middle Holocene climatic optimum based on the PMIP models. For comparison of model outputs, paleoenvi-ronmental proxy record was used. The value of insolation at 6 kyr BP and PD are 343.84 W·m2 and 344.61 W·m2 over study area (60ºE–150ºE, 10ºN–60ºN). The mean insolation during winter at 6 kyr BP is diminished regionally by about 2–19 W·m-2, while it increases by about 17–22 W·m-2 during sum-mer compared to the insolation at PD. The reconstructed winter (summer) surface air temperature of 6 kyr BP over Asian con-

tinent was 0.85 ºC (0.21 ºC) lower (higher) than the PD. The decrease of SAT in summer at 6 kyr BP over strong monsoonal regions was caused by the increase of precipitation. The mean winter (summer) precipitation of the 6 kyr BP is 0.067 mm·day-1 (0.017 mm·day-1) larger than the value at PD. This indicates that these differences in solar forcing make a stronger Asian monsoon during the Middle Holocene. The climate at 6 kyr BP reconstructed based on Köppen climate classification. The Class B climate was systematically reduced toward the north over Asian continent. The Class D climate shifted syste-matically toward the south compared to PD. The Class B cli-


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mate at 6 kyr BP was diminished about 2.1% globally, and 17% over Asian continent compared to the PD due to the occu-pied areal mean of Class B climate being greater than the glob-al value. ACKNOWLEDGMENT

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