Climatic changes

AndHealth

Climatic change is the statistical distribution of weather patternwhen than change lasts for and extended period of time .climate change may refer to a change in average weather conditions ,or in the time variation of weather around longer-term average conditions .they are caused by factors such as biotic processes, variations eruptions, certain human activities have also been identified as often climatic change often referred to as “global warming”.

Climatic change and its causes

Global warming and climate change are terms for the observed century-scale rise in the average temperature of the Earth's climate system and its related effects.Multiple lines of scientific evidence show that the climate system is warming. Although the increase of near-surface atmospheric temperature is the measure of global warming often reported in the popular press, most of the additional energy stored in the climate system since 1970 has gone into ocean warming. The remainder has melted ice and warmed the continents and atmosphere. Many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented over decades to millennia.The UNFCCC have adopted a range of policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to assist in adaptation to global warming. Parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required, and that future global warming should be limited to below 2.0 °C (3.6 °F) relative to the pre-industrial level.

GLOBAL WARMING

Kinds of health impacts resulting from climate change:

• Direct- result from weather extremes.• Consequences from ecological disruption.• Consequences resulting from climate-induced economic

disruption, e.g. traumatic, infectious, nutritional, psychological

• Changes in human health as a result of climate change will be indicated by alterations in geographic range and seasonality of infectious diseases.

CO2 ppm Temp

oC

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000

390

370

350

330

310

290

270

250

14.5

14.3

14.1

13.9

13.7

13.5

Correlation between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and Earth’s average surface temperature

Year

CO2concentration

Earth’s Temperature (background wobble due

to natural influences)

Graph from: Hanno, 2009

Climate Change: Health Impact Pathways

Physical systems(river flows, soil moisture, ocean temp)

Biologicalcycles, in nature … &

Ecological links/function

Economic/social impacts: infrastructure, farm/factory production, GDP growth, jobs, displacement

Human Health:• Injuries/deaths• Thermal stress

Indirect health impacts –ecologically mediated

Indirect health impacts – socially mediated

Direct impacts (extreme weather events, heatwaves, air pollutants, etc.)

• Infectious diseases• Under-nutrition• Mental stresses• Other disorders

Climate ChangeImpacts

Regions afflicted by problems due to environmental stresses: • population pressure • water shortage• climate change affecting crops • sea level rise • pre-existing hunger• armed conflict, current/recent

From UK Ministry of Defence

[May RM, 2007 Lowy Institute Lecture.Sydney]

Climate Change: Multiplier of Conflicts and Regional Tensions

Flo o d s

M a lar ia

D ia rr h oea

M a ln u tri tio n

02 04 06 08010 01 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 1 0

Deaths (thousands) DALYs (millions)

2000 2030

Deaths and DALYs attributable to Climate Change, 2000 & 2030Selected conditions in developing countries

WHO/McMichael,Campbell-Lendrum, Kovats et al, 2004

Now (2000)Future (2030)

Deaths Total Burden

Climate Change occurring faster than expected

IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (2007) now looks conservative [in addition to cautious review process]

Subsequent research shows increasing rates of: Global Greenhouse Gas emissions Ice melting (Arctic sea ice, Greenland/Antarctic ice-sheets, alpine glaciers)

Sea level riseAlso: Increasing saturation of carbon ‘sinks’ (land and oceans)

Estimated amount of carbon stored in permafrost = twice the atmospheric carbon

1m: half of Bangladesh rice fields2m: most of Mekong Delta

Climate Change and Health Research Tasks and Policy Foci

Human society: • Population size• Economic activity• Culture, governance

Human pressure on environment

Based on: McMichael et al., Brit med J, 2008

Adaptation: Reduce health impacts/risks

Human impacts: • Livelihoods• Social stability• Health

Health Co-benefits?

Unintended health effects

Mitigation of Climate Change: Reduce GHG

emissions

Climate - environmental changes, affecting:• Meteorological conditions• Water flows• Food yields• Physical (protective) buffers• Microbial activity• Extreme weather events

4

Risks to humans better

understood2

3Natural environmental

processes

1a-c

Need for local prevention

Photo-synthetic

activity

20o C 30o C 40o C

Food Yields: General Relationship of Temperature and

Photosynthesis

0%

100%

Example: Field & Lobell. Environmental Research Letters, 2007:

Globally averaged: +0.5oC reduces crop yields by 3-5%. So: +2oC would mean 12-20% fall in global grain production.

+2oC+2oC

Plus:• Flood

s, storms, fires

• Droughts – range, severity

• Pests• Disea

ses

Are the zones being pushed

south, by warming?

… and here?

Health Consequences?

Marked wet summer and dry winter

Wet summer and low winter rainfall

Uniform rainfall

Marked wet winter and dry summer

Low rainfallWet winter and low summer rainfall

AridWinter dominant Winter

Summer dominant Summer Uniform

Crucial for wheat-belt

Australia: Climate change, seasonal rainfall zones, farm yields, health impacts

Reducing Health Impacts of Climate Change … Health Co-Benefits as

‘bonus’Disease burden

Mitigation beginsemissions reduction (etc.)

Potential health

impact of climate

change

now 2050 2100

Health Co-Benefits (local/regional)Baseline burden

Health impact

averted by mitigationImpact

avoidance via adaptation

Model-fitted relationship of monthly Salmonellosis case counts in relation to monthly av. temperature in five

Australian cities, 1991-2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28

Average MonthlyTemperature oC

Salm

onel

la c

ount Perth

Brisbane

Adelaide

MelbourneSydney

D’Souza et al., 2003

How to control it?• Use Fluorescent Light Bulbs• Switch Off Electric Appliances•  Change Your Monitor with LCD•  Don’t Leave Fridge’s door open for a Long Time•  Uses of Solar Energy• Use Electric or Hybrid Car• Plant Trees At Home• Reduce Trash At Home•  Save Clean Water • Avoid Lighting at Day Time • Make High Roofs• Get Your House Insulated• Reduce the Usage of Hot Water