climate service division / nws / noaa national weather service climate services marina timofeyeva...

CLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAACLIMATE SERVICE DIVISION / NWS / NOAA

National Weather Service National Weather Service Climate ServicesClimate Services

Marina Timofeyeva

PaCIS 2010 Implementation Planning Workshop


NWS Climate Services Mission

• NWS: provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States … for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. NWS data and products form a national information database and infrastructure....

• CSD: Ensure NWS has the capacity to develop and deliver the best climate products and services through policy, planning, data stewardship, integration of research and services, training, education, and outreach in collaboration with other NOAA offices, partners, and users

• CPC: Deliver climate prediction, monitoring, and assessment products for timescales from weeks to years to the Nation and the global community for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the economy.


Policy and Planning

• Directives – 10-10 Series www.weather.gov/directives o 2009 update clarified roles

and responsibilities for all NWS climate services providers

• Operations Documento Third edition drafted and in

process of coordination

• Coordination with NCS


User Requirements

• Local Climate Directory

• Annual Climate Prediction Application Science Workshop

• Periodic Customer Satisfaction Surveys

• Coordination with partners: state climatologists and RCC

• Development of new SMART metrics for climate products


User Requirements


Needs and Requirements

• “Past weather” data

• Climate guidance to national and local decision makers

• Information of climate variability and change physical mechanisms, predictability, predictions, and impacts

• Timely, continuous and reliable climate data

• Timely, continuous and reliable national and local climate observations, monitoring and forecast products

• Outreach activities, materials and trained staff


Programs and Initiatives

• National Climate Programs and Initiativeso Monitoring climate variability - Lukeo Climate assessments and diagnostic discussions - Lukeo Climate forecasts - Lukeo Climate Test Bed

• Regional and Local Climate Programs and Initiativeso Bridging climate user needs and product requirementso Climate observing system and data recordso Local climate data and forecast productso Climate education and outreacho Training climate services staff and technical users


Climate Test Bed• Jointly established in 2004 by NCEP and NOAA Climate Program Office• Serves as conduit between the operational, academic and research

communities

Mission• To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the

climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services

Mission• To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the

climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services

Research to Operations (R2O) Operations to Research (O2R)

• Focus Areas– CFS Improvements– Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems– Climate Forecast Products

• Competitive Grants Program • CTB Seminar Series• CPC/CTB - RISA Program• Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program

Research to Operations (R2O) Operations to Research (O2R)

• Focus Areas– CFS Improvements– Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Prediction Systems– Climate Forecast Products

• Competitive Grants Program • CTB Seminar Series• CPC/CTB - RISA Program• Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program

AOLOI

ProposalNCEP Collaborator

R2O

O2R

Improved products and

services

Research OperationsClimate Forecast

ProductsMME

CFS Improvements

• Reanalysis / Reforecasts

• Earth System Modeling

• Tropical oscillations

• Model physics

• Etc.

Res

earc

h T

op

ics

AOLOI

ProposalNCEP Collaborator

R2O

O2R

Improved products and

services

Research OperationsClimate Forecast

ProductsMME

CFS Improvements

• Reanalysis / Reforecasts

• Earth System Modeling

• Tropical oscillations

• Model physics

• Etc.

Res

earc

h T

op

ics


Product Suite and Services:Local

Public interactive access to ““past weather

• NOAA Online Weather Data (NOWdata): 9 products, 3900 sites, 9 variables, 3 time periods

• Other online data products:o Last 3 month daily datao Last 5 year monthly/dailyo This year record eventso Last year monthly site, regional

and state summaries



NWS local climate services support:• Standardized local offices web site:

www.weather.gov/climate • Online data stewardship tools: xmACIS, Datzilla,

ThredEx, etc.• Local Climate Forecast Products (L3MTO)

online package and display• Outreach materials: factsheets, brochures,

standard presentations, etc.• Defining a process of transition from climate

user need to NWS climate product requirements



Local 3 Month Temperature Outlooks:

• Local information• Multiple user centric

formats• Dynamic text

interpretation• Benefits and limitations• Long term forecast

evaluation • Trained staff support


Need for Local Climate Products2009 Customer Satisfaction Survey

14%No

86%Yes

Useful if NWS offered a Local 3-Month Precipitation

Outlook%

16%No

84%Yes

Useful if NWS offered a local climate change product displaying rate of

change in different climate variables%

12%No

88%Yes

Useful if NWS offered a 3-Month Outlook of El Nino/La Nina impacts on local

climate variables%

Additional sites for Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook:Columbus, NE. De Witt, Iowa

Kalamazoo, MILompoc, CA

Please cover NE Oregon. South America locations

14%No

86%Yes

Useful if NWS offered a Local 3-Month Precipitation

Outlook%

16%No

84%Yes

Useful if NWS offered a local climate change product displaying rate of

change in different climate variables%

12%No

88%Yes

Useful if NWS offered a 3-Month Outlook of El Nino/La Nina impacts on local

climate variables%

Additional sites for Local 3-Month Temperature Outlook:Columbus, NE. De Witt, Iowa

Kalamazoo, MILompoc, CA

Please cover NE Oregon. South America locations


Capacity Building for Local Climate Services - LCAT

Provides NOAA standard methodologies for climate analysis (such as trend, composites, principal statistical, and time series analysis) for:

• Assisting and developing climate expertise at local level

• Expanding suite of NOAA climate products

• Engaging local climate services staff in NOAA climate analysis activities

• Responding to local customer inquiries on climate variability and change local impacts

• Providing initial data tests to formulate local user needs for climate products to national climate centers (NESDIS/NCDC, NWS/CPC, OAR/ESRL)

Climate Division Stations

45

50

55

60

1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

Data Trend


Training

• Climate Services Training includes 3 courseso Special PR training course

• ~30 online distance learning modules

• NETS coordination

• Pilot applications for training technical user groups:o 3 pilots accomplished o 1 in development

http://www.weather.gov/om/csd/pds/index.shtml


Education

• Climate Literacy

• Partnership with Smithsonian Institution Natural History Museum

• Science of the Sphere

• Annual event at the National Teachers Association meeting


Outreach

• Field guidance for local outreach activitieso Local Climate Information hubso Trusted source for climate

informationo Experienced in communicating

science to public

• Support materials- standard presentations, factsheets, etc.

• Outreach to Professional Meteorology and Geophysical Communities


BACKUP SLIDES


Climate Test Bed

• So-far 3 successful projects• 15 ongoing projects• Focus area:

o CFS Improvements – CFSv3 [2 projects]o Multi-Model Ensembles – intra-seasonal to inter-

annual scale [5 projects]o Climate Forecast Products [8 projects]

• Development of an Extended and Long-range Precipitation Prediction System over the Pacific Islands – Annamalai, CPC

o Seminar Series http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb


Process for Transitioning Research into Operations

Prototype is developed internally by science and outreach experts

Informal WFO internal review, questionnaire of selected partners & customers

Experimental product is developed and enhanced by“Feedback” form

Formal Questionnaire with NOAA “pre-approved” questions

Operational product is developed and enhanced by“Feedback” form

Formal Questionnaire with NOAA “pre-approved” questions

Adjustment

Adjustment

Adjustment

Multi-tiered Approach in Incorporating Users Feedback

climate service division / nws / noaa national weather service climate services marina timofeyeva...

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