climate reanalysis at ecmwf reanalysis is based on analysis methods developed to provide initial...

Climate reanalysis at ECMWF

Reanalysis is based on analysis methods developed to provide initial states for numerical weather prediction

It applies a fixed, modern data assimilation system to multi-year sets of observations of different types

New reanalysis products benefit from improvements in forecast skill, data assimilation methods, and ongoing data recovery and data reprocessing efforts

ECMWF operational forecasts

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“Forecasts” from ECMWF reanalyses

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ERA-CLIM Project Overview

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The ERA-CLIM Project

• ERA-CLIM: European Reanalysis of Global Climate Observations• 3-year collaborative research project, start date 01/01/2011• Funded by EU research FP7, Environment theme• Total cost €4.9M; EC contribution €3.5M• 8(9) partners, 47.5(59) person-years, 50 deliverables

47%

12%

14%

24%

3%

Work packages:

Data recovery

Other input data

Integration

Uncertainty

Management

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ObjectivesAddressing the call for proposals:

Building observational datasets for the predictability of global atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial processes using reanalysis techniques

As stated in the project proposal:

• Development of the observational record for the early 20th century• Preparation of satellite observations, boundary conditions, and forcing data for an

atmospheric reanalysis of the 20th century (ERA-20C)• Development of an Observation Feedback Archive for reanalysis• Production of pilot case reanalyses and data quality information• Assessment and reduction of data uncertainties

Additional goals:

• Improving access to climate data, quality, and transparency• Developing a sustained data recovery and reanalysis capability• Meeting the requirements for future GMES climate services

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DeliverablesObjectives Key deliverables

Development of the observational record for the early 20th century

Inventories; database for metadata, web-based digitising tools

WP1Digitized, quality-controlled instrumental records for the early 20th century

Access to observations and metadata via international data centres

Preparation of reprocessed satellite observations, boundary conditions, and forcing data

Reprocessed satellite data sets for input to reanalysis; early satellite records

WP2Ensemble of consistent sea-surface boundary conditions for the 20th-century

Atmospheric forcing data (solar, aerosols, GHG, land surface…) for ERA-20C

Development of an Observation Feedback Archive (OFA)

Database facility for input observations with quality feedback from reanalyses

WP3A series of long test reanalyses at various resolutions to prepare for ERA-20CProduction of pilot reanalyses and data quality information All reanalysis products and input observations available via web services

Assessment and reduction of data uncertainties

Homogenized in-situ data and bias correction techniques

WP4Improved ocean observations for reanalysis

Tools for quality assessment of reanalysis products

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Work packages

1. Recovery, imaging, and digitisation of historical observations and metadata

2. Preparation of satellite observations, boundary conditions, and forcing data

3. Integration of observational climate data sets (reanalyses)

4. Quantifying and reducing uncertainties

5. Project management and coordination

WP5

WP4

WP3

WP2

WP1

ECMWF

UKMET

UNIVIE

UBERN

RIHMI

FFCUL

EUMST

METFR

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WP1: Recovery, imaging, and digitisation of historical observations and metadata


Lead PM Due 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

1 Data recovery tools UBERN 12 01/06/20112 Historical climate data catalogue UBERN 24 01/09/20113 Data recovery priority list UBERN 32 01/12/20114 Quality control tools UBERN 13 01/06/20125 Historical climate data metadatabase UBERN 24 01/06/20136 Digitized historical data UBERN 71 01/06/20137 Proposal for sustained historical climate data recoveryUBERN 5 01/06/20138 Images of climate records UBERN 71 01/12/20139 Quality-controlled historical climate data UBERN 16 01/12/2013

WP2: Preparation of satellite observations, boundary conditions, and forcing data

Deliverable Lead PM Due 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

1 First HadlSST2 dataset UKMET 6 01/09/20112 Survey of early satellite radiance data UKMET 5 01/12/20113 Ensemble of HadlSST2 realizations UKMET 5 01/12/20114 Upgrade of RTTOV for early satellites UKMET 3 01/03/20125 Reprocessed Meteosat observations EUMST 12 01/09/20126 UKMET 2 01/09/20127 Final HadlSST2 dataset for ERA-20C UKMET 12 01/09/20128 UBERN 3 01/09/20129 Reprocessed AVHRR winds EUMST 3 01/12/2012

10 Reprocessed GPS radio occultation data EUMST 6 01/12/201211 UBERN 1 01/12/201212 EUMST 2 01/06/201313 Reprocessed MetOp ozone and ASCAT data EUMST 6 01/12/2013

WP3: Integration of observational datasets


1 ECMWF 3 01/09/20112 Improved reanalysis monitoring tools ECMWF 3 01/12/20113 OFA facility ECMWF 24 01/03/20124 ERA-P0 ECMWF 8 01/03/20125 ECMWF 4 01/12/20126 ERA-P1 ECMWF 8 01/12/20127 ERA-S1 ECMWF 6 01/03/20138 ERA-P2 ECMWF 8 01/06/20139 ERA-E2 ECMWF 8 01/09/2013

10 ERA-P3 ECMWF 8 01/12/2013

WP4: Quantifying and reducing uncertainties


1 Extended EN3 database UKMET 6 01/12/20112 Homogenised in situ observations UNIVIE 66 01/03/20133 Bias corrections in pilot reanalyses UNIVIE 19 01/06/20134 UNIVIE 5 01/06/20135 Prototype surface/sub-surface ocean database UKMET 21 01/06/20136 ECMWF 2 01/06/20137 Ensemble of sub-surface databases UKMET 3 01/12/20138 ECMWF 7 01/12/20139 UNIVIE 6 01/12/2013

WP5: Project management and coordination


1 Regular Management Board meetings ECMWF 4 01/01/20112 Plan for dissemination of project results ECMWF 2 01/12/20113 Meetings of the General Assembly ECMWF 2 01/12/20114 Advisory Board meetings ECMWF 2 01/12/20115 ECMWF 2 01/06/20126 Reanalysis conference ECMWF 2 01/06/20137 ECMWF 2 01/12/20138 Project website ECMWF 1 01/08/20119 Project leaflet ECMWF 1 01/10/2011

2011 2012 2013

ECMWF

UKMET

UBERN

RIHMI

FFCUL

METFR

Deliverables (9):

Person-months (268):

bilat 2011

•WP1 lead is UBERN•Involves 47% of project resources•Strong leverage on ACRE (via UKMET)•Addition of DMC is crucial for this WP



Lead PM Due 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

1 Data recovery tools UBERN 12 01/06/20112 Historical climate data catalogue UBERN 24 01/09/20113 Data recovery priority list UBERN 32 01/12/20114 Quality control tools UBERN 13 01/06/20125 Historical climate data metadatabase UBERN 24 01/06/20136 Digitized historical data UBERN 71 01/06/20137 UBERN 5 01/06/20138 Images of climate records UBERN 71 01/12/20139 Quality-controlled historical climate data UBERN 16 01/12/2013



1 First HadlSST2 dataset UKMET 6 01/09/20112 Survey of early satellite radiance data UKMET 5 01/12/20113 Ensemble of HadlSST2 realizations UKMET 5 01/12/20114 Upgrade of RTTOV for early satellites UKMET 3 01/03/20125 Reprocessed Meteosat observations EUMST 12 01/09/20126 Documentation of homogenized SSMT2, AMSUB, and MHS radiance dataUKMET 2 01/09/20127 Final HadlSST2 dataset for ERA-20C UKMET 12 01/09/20128 Solar, ozone, and volcanic aerosols forcing data UBERN 3 01/09/20129 Reprocessed AVHRR winds EUMST 3 01/12/2012

10 Reprocessed GPS radio occultation data EUMST 6 01/12/201211 Proposal for boundary conditions & forcing in ERA-20CUBERN 1 01/12/201212 Proposal for using early satellite and EUMETSAT data in ERA-20CEUMST 2 01/06/201313 Reprocessed MetOp ozone and ASCAT data EUMST 6 01/12/2013




10 ERA-P3 ECMWF 8 01/12/2013







2011 2012 2013

UKMET

UBERN

EUMST

Deliverables (13):

Person-months (66):

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•WP2 lead is UKMET•Deliverables are largely independent•Direct input to WP3

WP3: Integration of observational climate datasets (reanalyses)


Lead PM Due 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36








1 Documentation of software for merging in situ observationsECMWF 3 01/09/20112 Improved reanalysis monitoring tools ECMWF 3 01/12/20113 OFA facility ECMWF 24 01/03/20124 ERA-P0 ECMWF 8 01/03/20125 Proposal for using in situ observations in ERA-20CECMWF 4 01/12/20126 ERA-P1 ECMWF 8 01/12/20127 ERA-S1 ECMWF 6 01/03/20138 ERA-P2 ECMWF 8 01/06/20139 ERA-E2 ECMWF 8 01/09/2013

10 ERA-P3 ECMWF 8 01/12/2013







2011 2012 2013

ECMWF

UNIVIE

UBERN

RIHMI

Deliverables (10):

Person-months (80):

bilat 2011

•WP3 lead is ECMWF•Will generate 1Pb of reanalysis data•OFA is a new development

ECMWF Contributions

ERA-CLIM pilot reanalyses

What Period Resolution Ens When Vol

ERA-Int Interim reanalysis 1989-NRT T255L60 1 ongoing 33 Tb

ERA-P0 AMIP ensemble 1900-2011 T159L91 10 Jun 2011 (9M)

ERA-P1 EDA using sfc obs only 1900-2011 T159L91 10 Sep 2011 (15M) 655 Tb

ERA-S1 Land surface using ERA-P1 1900-2011 T799 1 Sep 2012 (9M) 77 Tb

ERA-P2 Reanalysis using all obs 2 early decades T511L91 1 Sep 2012 (9M) 180 Tb

ERA-E2As ERA-P2 but with

SST/sea-ice perturbations2 early decades T159L91 10 Jan 2013 (9M) 180 Tb

ERA-P3 To replace ERA-Interim 1979-NRT T511L91 1 Jan 2012 (24M+) 234 Tb

ERA-20C 20th-century reanalysis 1900-NRT T511L91 1 2014 (36M+) 1062 Tb

ER

A-C

LIM



Lead PM Due 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36









10 ERA-P3 ECMWF 8 01/12/2013



1 Extended EN3 database UKMET 6 01/12/20112 Homogenised in situ observations UNIVIE 66 01/03/20133 Bias corrections in pilot reanalyses UNIVIE 19 01/06/20134 Proposal for bias correction & homogenization in ERA-20CUNIVIE 5 01/06/20135 Prototype surface/sub-surface ocean database UKMET 21 01/06/20136 Background error estimates used in pilot reanalysesECMWF 2 01/06/20137 Ensemble of sub-surface databases UKMET 3 01/12/20138 Observation error estimates used in pilot reanalysesECMWF 7 01/12/20139 Ensemble of homogenised upper-air observationsUNIVIE 6 01/12/2013




2011 2012 2013

ECMWF

UKMET

UNIVIE

UBERN

RIHMI

FFCUL

EUMST

Deliverables (9):

Person-months (135):

bilat 2011

•WP4 lead is UNIVIE•Complex set of deliverables•OFA is a crucial resource for this WP



Lead PM Due 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36









10 ERA-P3 ECMWF 8 01/12/2013






1 Regular Management Board meetings ECMWF 4 01/01/20112 Plan for dissemination of project results ECMWF 2 01/12/20113 Meetings of the General Assembly ECMWF 2 01/12/20114 Advisory Board meetings ECMWF 2 01/12/20115 Activity reports and management reports for the CommissionECMWF 2 01/06/20126 Reanalysis conference ECMWF 2 01/06/20137 Proposal for sustained European capability for global reanalysis of climate observationsECMWF 2 01/12/20138 Project website ECMWF 1 01/08/20119 Project leaflet ECMWF 1 01/10/2011

2011 2012 2013

ECMWF

UKMET

UNIVIE

UBERN

Deliverables (9):

Person-months (18):

bilat 2011

•WP5 lead is ECMWF•2 person-months for each WP lead

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Meantime…

Conclusions

• ERA-CLIM is an essential step towards the future ECMWF global reanalysis ERA-20C.

• This project is directly supported by EU-FP7

• Additional support to reanalysis activities is provided by:– ESA– Japan– UK (NCEO, NCAS)

• ERA-interim remains the best reanalysis in the world in many aspects– This resource should be used widely by the climate community

bilat 2011

climate reanalysis at ecmwf reanalysis is based on analysis methods developed to provide initial...

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situ data

data solar

ongoing data recovery

sustained data recovery

data assimilation methods

climate reanalysis

atmospheric reanalysis

reanalysis capabilitymeeting