Climate Governance and Development,Berlin, 28-30 Sep 2008

Lose-Lose Risks and Win-Win Options

Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber CBE

Potsdam Institute,Oxford University,

Tyndall Centre

1900 2000 2100

Glo

bally

ave

rage

d w

arm

ing

(ºC

)

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

B1

A1T

B2

A1B

A2

A1F

I

Multi-model Averages and Assessed Ranges forSurface Warming

(Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS)

Cooling Effect of Aerosols

Dangerous Warming Commitment

(Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS)

(Schellnhuber 2008 PNAS)

G8-Scenario and R&F‘s Invisible Hand

Integrated Assessment

Consider 3 crucial aspects of sustainable climate protection measures:

• Mitigation

• Adaptation

• Development

Identify

• Ecological Assets

• Economic Sectors

• Social Systems

highly sensitive to subset / totality of aspects

Prioritize accordingly!

Action Field Check

Development

Lose

Invest in Win-Win-Win Options

Disencourage Lose-Lose-Lose Risks

Ad

apta

tio

n

Mitigation

Win

Stagnate

LoseWin Stagnate

Lose

Win

Stagnate

LLL Examples• Urbanization of coastal zones,

mountain ranges, arid regions

• „Stradification“ of natural habitats

• Expansion of single-purpose fossil-fuel-based power stations

WWW Examples• Reduction of black carbon emissions through

biomethane generated from degraded-land afforestation

• Solarthermal power generation + desalinization by energy towers

• Sustainable architecture

Vulnerable Coastal Megacity: Mumbai

The Phoenix Metropolitan Area

Nouakchott, Mauritania

www.faszination-regenwald.de u. a.

(1) Biodiv/Wilderness moderately protected(2) Cropland not expanded

Erbrecht and Lucht, unpub.

17 % of currentglobalprimaryenergydemand81 EJ/yr557 Mha(not irrigated)

FractionalPlantation Area(2nd Generation Bioenergy)

BioenergyPotential (no irrigation)

Energy Tower Principle

Climate-fit urban design invented 2000 years ago