climate concepts, climate of the philippines and enso (el niño-southern oscillation) ernesto r....
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CLIMATE Concepts, CLIMATE Concepts, Climate of the Climate of the
Philippines and ENSO Philippines and ENSO
(EL Niño-Southern Oscillation)(EL Niño-Southern Oscillation)
Ernesto R. VercelesErnesto R. VercelesPAGASAPAGASA
01 December 200501 December 2005
WHY DO WE STUDY CLIMATE?WHY DO WE STUDY CLIMATE?
Determines the availability of water or soil Determines the availability of water or soil moisture.moisture. Serves as a major factor in the development of Serves as a major factor in the development of human human settlements.settlements.
Identify incidences of unfavorable events such as;Identify incidences of unfavorable events such as;
• existence of drought or floodsexistence of drought or floods
• occurrence of destructive typhoonsoccurrence of destructive typhoons
• plant pest and diseasesplant pest and diseases
Influences the Influences the timingtiming of many economic activities of many economic activities
• Beginning of plowing, plantingBeginning of plowing, planting
• postponement of fishing activitiespostponement of fishing activities
• Conduct of field operations and othersConduct of field operations and others
Definition of TermsDefinition of Terms
CLIMATECLIMATE - is the long-term average of weatheris the long-term average of weather. .
NORMAL (Climatological Normal)NORMAL (Climatological Normal) – the average – the average value of a meteorological element over any fixed period. value of a meteorological element over any fixed period. Thirty (30) year period was mandated by the Thirty (30) year period was mandated by the World World Meteorological Organization Meteorological Organization (WMO). (WMO).
WEATHERWEATHER - - is the state of the atmosphere at a particular is the state of the atmosphere at a particular place and timeplace and time. It is measured in terms of such parameters . It is measured in terms of such parameters as winds, temperatures, humidity, atmospheric as winds, temperatures, humidity, atmospheric pressure, pressure, cloudiness and precipitation. In most places, cloudiness and precipitation. In most places, weather can weather can change from hour-to-hour or day-to-day.change from hour-to-hour or day-to-day.
Definition of TermsDefinition of Terms
ANOMALY (Departure from Normal)ANOMALY (Departure from Normal) – the – the deviation of rainfall or temperature from deviation of rainfall or temperature from climatological climatological normal normal ..
SEASONSEASON - a division of the year according to some regularly a division of the year according to some regularly recurrent phenomenarecurrent phenomena, usually astronomical or , usually astronomical or climatic. climatic. In the Philippines, winds and rainfall are the In the Philippines, winds and rainfall are the determining factors (southwest monsoon associated with determining factors (southwest monsoon associated with wet season and northeast monsoon associated with dry wet season and northeast monsoon associated with dry season).season).
EXTREMES OF CLIMATEEXTREMES OF CLIMATE – The highest and lowest The highest and lowest value of a climatic element, such as warm/cold or value of a climatic element, such as warm/cold or floods/droughts, as observed in a given period (month or floods/droughts, as observed in a given period (month or season). season).
Strong windsStrong winds
• Passage of tropical cyclonesPassage of tropical cyclones• TornadoesTornadoes• Local thunderstorm activityLocal thunderstorm activity
Natural Hazards Associated with Extreme ClimateNatural Hazards Associated with Extreme Climate
HazardsHazards CausesCauses
DroughtDrought
• Extended dry periodsExtended dry periods• Early end of rainy seasonEarly end of rainy season• Weak monsoon activityWeak monsoon activity• Less number of tropical Less number of tropical
cyclonescyclones
FloodsFloods
• Passage of tropical cyclonesPassage of tropical cyclones• Intense monsoon rainsIntense monsoon rains• Local thunderstorm activityLocal thunderstorm activity
Storm surgesStorm surges
• Passage of intense tropical Passage of intense tropical cyclones over strategic / cyclones over strategic / prone areasprone areas
Heat / cold wavesHeat / cold waves • Monsoon surges and Monsoon surges and other seasonal other seasonal abnormalitiesabnormalities
• SunSun
Influencing factors Influencing factors (Climate Controls)(Climate Controls)
Latitude Latitude (North/South)(North/South)
Land and WaterLand and Water
Altitude/Altitude/Mountain Mountain barriersbarriers• Semi-permanent Semi-permanent
High/Low Pressure High/Low Pressure SystemsSystems
• Winds, Air MassesWinds, Air Masses
• Ocean Currents/ Ocean Currents/ TemperaturesTemperatures
• Geography/Geography/TopographyTopography
• Tropical CyclonesTropical Cyclones
• Linear SystemsLinear Systems ITCZITCZ
Frontal SystemFrontal System
• ENSOENSO
Geography and topography
Pacific ocean
China Sea
China
Indonesia
Malaysia
Japan
LL
LL
HH
JANUARYJANUARYFEBRUARYFEBRUARY
HH
LL
LL
MARCHMARCH
LL
HH
HH
HH
APRILAPRIL
LLLL
HH
HH
HH
MAYMAY
LLLL
HH
HHHH
JUNEJUNE
LL
HH
HHHH
LL
JULYJULY
LL
HH
HH
LL
LL
AUGUSTAUGUST
LL
HH
HH
LL
LL
SEPTEMBERSEPTEMBER
LL
HH
HH
LL
LL
OCTOBEROCTOBER
HH
LL
HH
LL
HH
NOVEMBERNOVEMBER
HH
LL
LL
HH
HH
DECEMBERDECEMBER
LL
LL
HH
SEMI-PERMANENT SEMI-PERMANENT HIGH/LOWHIGH/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMSPRESSURE SYSTEMS
Southwest windflow
Northeast windflow
Easterlies (trade winds)
JANUARYJANUARYFEBRUARYFEBRUARYMARCHMARCHAPRILAPRILMAYMAYJUNEJUNEJULYJULYAUGUSTAUGUSTSEPTEMBERSEPTEMBEROCTOBEROCTOBERNOVEMBERNOVEMBERDECEMBERDECEMBER
OCEAN TEMPERATURESOCEAN TEMPERATURES
ANIMATED SATELLITE PICTURES OF A COLD FRONT (TAIL-END AFFECTING EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON) AND ITCZ AFFECTING SOUTHERN LUZON, VISAYAS AND MINDANAO
LL
LLITCZ
COLD FRONT
ITCZ
ITCZ
ITCZ
Linear Linear SystemsSystems
Areas of Formation of Tropical Areas of Formation of Tropical Cyclones and Annual Average Number Cyclones and Annual Average Number
WorldwideWorldwide
An average of 100 tropical cyclones occur worldwide; An average of 100 tropical cyclones occur worldwide; 30 of which form in the western north pacific area 30 of which form in the western north pacific area
Rainfall in Malaybalay (1952-2004)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Month
Ra
infa
ll (
mm
)
Weather
JJ FF MM AA MM JJ JJ AA SS OO NN DD
Rainfall in Malaybalay (1952-2004)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Month
Ra
infa
ll (
mm
)
Climate
THE PROVINCE OF BUKIDNON
Rainfall and TemperatureRainfall and Temperature
Normal Rainfall and Normal Number of Rainy Days over PAGASA Synoptic Station in Malaybalay, Bukidnon
from 1971-2000
0
50100
150
200
250300
350
400
JAN
FE
B
MA
R
AP
R
MA
Y
JUN
JUL
AU
G
SE
P
OC
T
NO
V
DE
C
Month
Ra
infa
ll (
mm
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Da
y
rainfall
rainy days
Normal Temperature over PAGASA Synoptic Station in Malaybalay, Bukidnon from 1971-2000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
JAN
FEB
MA
R
APR
MA
Y
JUN
JUL
AU
G
SEP
OC
T
NO
V
DEC
Month
Te
mp
era
ture
(d
eg
C)
max temp
min temp
mean temp
MalaybalayMalaybalay
THE PROVINCE OF BUKIDNON
Rainfall and TemperaturesRainfall and Temperatures
Normal Rainfall and Normal Number of Rainy Days over PAGASA Agromet Station in Musuan, Bukidnon from
1978-2001
0
50
100
150200
250
300
350
400
JAN
FE
B
MA
R
AP
R
MA
Y
JUN
JUL
AU
G
SE
P
OC
T
NO
V
DE
C
Month
Ra
infa
ll (
mm
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Da
y
rainfall
rainy days
Normal Temperature over PAGASA Agromet Station in Musuan, Bukidnon from 1978-2001
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
JAN
FEB
MA
R
APR
MA
Y
JUN
JUL
AU
G
SEP
OC
T
NO
V
DEC
Month
Te
mp
era
ture
(d
eg
C)
max temp
min temp
mean temp
MusuanMusuan
Southwest Monsoon Season (Habagat) associated with wet season in the country
Northeast Monsoon Season (Amihan) associated with relatively dry season in the country
Annual Rainfall Anomalies in Malaybalay (1952-2004)
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.01952
1956
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
Year
Sta
nd
ard
An
om
alie
s
Year-to-year Rainfall Events in Malaybalay
0
20
40
60
80
100
1952
1955
1958
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
Year
Perc
entil
e Ra
nk
floodflood
droughtdrought
El Niño (La Niña) is a condition in the Pacific El Niño (La Niña) is a condition in the Pacific ocean and characterized by the cyclic warming ocean and characterized by the cyclic warming (cooling) of the central and eastern equatorial (cooling) of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP). Pacific (CEEP).
Observed Observed Sea Surface Sea Surface TemperaturTemperatur
ee
Analyzed Analyzed Sea Surface Sea Surface TemperaturTemperatur
ee
EL EL NIÑONIÑO
LA LA NIÑANIÑA
LoweLower r
temptemp
LoweLower r
temptemp
HigheHigher r
temptemp
HigheHigher r
temptemp
CooleCooler r
temptemp
CooleCooler r
temptemp
WarmeWarmer tempr temp
WarmeWarmer tempr temp
PhilippinesPhilippines PhilippinesPhilippines
PhilippinesPhilippines PhilippinesPhilippines
CEEP warmingCEEP warming CEEP coolingCEEP cooling
COMBINED EFFECT OF EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN COMBINED EFFECT OF EL NIÑO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) IN THE TROPICAL PACIFICOSCILLATION (ENSO) IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC
GLOBAL IMPACTS OF ENSOGLOBAL IMPACTS OF ENSO
EL NIÑOEL NIÑO LA NIÑALA NIÑA
EL NIÑOEL NIÑO LA NIÑALA NIÑARainmanRainman RainmanRainman
Mean Monthly Rainfall in Malaybalay (1952-2004)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Se
p
Oct
No
v
De
c
Month
Ra
infa
ll (
mm
)
Climat
La Nina
El Nino
Rainfall Conditions in Malaybalay Rainfall Conditions in Malaybalay during ENSO and non-ENSO Eventsduring ENSO and non-ENSO Events
During El Niño Episode During La Niña Episode
DrierDrier weather conditions weather conditions WetterWetter weather conditions weather conditions
Initial results of diagnostic and statistical studies on Initial results of diagnostic and statistical studies on general influences of ENSO on Philippine climategeneral influences of ENSO on Philippine climate
Below normal rainfallBelow normal rainfall
Above normal air temperaturesAbove normal air temperatures
Weak monsoon activityWeak monsoon activity
- but, occurrence of isolated heavy - but, occurrence of isolated heavy rainfall in short duration is rainfall in short duration is also also possiblepossible
- delayed onset of the rainy - delayed onset of the rainy seasonseason- early termination of the rainy - early termination of the rainy seasonseason
Weak tropical cyclones activityWeak tropical cyclones activity- tropical cyclones follow tracks - tropical cyclones follow tracks
further off the Philippinesfurther off the Philippines- less number of tropical cyclones - less number of tropical cyclones entering the Philippine Area entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)of Responsibility (PAR)
Above normal rainfallAbove normal rainfallNear-to-below normal air Near-to-below normal air temperaturestemperatures
Moderate to strong monsoon Moderate to strong monsoon activityactivity
- increased cloudiness and widespread - increased cloudiness and widespread rainsrains
- near normal to early onset of the - near normal to early onset of the rainy seasonrainy season
Moderate to Strong tropical Moderate to Strong tropical cyclones activitycyclones activity
- near normal cyclone tracks (near - near normal cyclone tracks (near and/or crossing the country)and/or crossing the country)- near-to-above normal cyclone - near-to-above normal cyclone occurrences in the PARoccurrences in the PAR- rain-effective cyclones- rain-effective cyclones
CLIMATE MAP OF THE PHILIPPINESCLIMATE MAP OF THE PHILIPPINES
THE PROVINCE OF BUKIDNON
Rainfall and TemperatureRainfall and Temperature
Normal Rainfall and Normal Number of Rainy Days over PAGASA Synoptic Station in Malaybalay, Bukidnon
from 1971-2000
0
50100
150
200
250300
350
400
JAN
FE
B
MA
R
AP
R
MA
Y
JUN
JUL
AU
G
SE
P
OC
T
NO
V
DE
C
Month
Ra
infa
ll (
mm
)
0
5
10
15
20
25
Da
y
rainfall
rainy days
Normal Temperature over PAGASA Synoptic Station in Malaybalay, Bukidnon from 1971-2000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
JAN
FEB
MA
R
APR
MA
Y
JUN
JUL
AU
G
SEP
OC
T
NO
V
DEC
Month
Te
mp
era
ture
(d
eg
C)
max temp
min temp
mean temp
MalaybalayMalaybalay
Laging tandaan: Laging tandaan: “Ang taong “Ang taong
laging handa, laging handa, sakuna’y walang sakuna’y walang
panama!”panama!”
Maraming Salamat Po…Maraming Salamat Po…
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