CLIMATE CHANGES ISSUES AFFECTING IRISH INDUSTRY

Interim briefing 12 March 2003

Kyoto Five Years On

• Kyoto Protocol history in brief

• Targets for EU countries

• Protocol ratification – are we there yet?

• How is EU doing?

• How is Ireland doing?Fiona Murray

Update on Negotiated Energy Agreement Pilot Programme

• Introduction and context

• Pilot project details

• The role of audits

• Progress and next stepsPeter Brabazon

Climate Change Measures

• What’s in store for Irish industry?Brian Motherway

KYOTO - FIVE YEARS ONFiona Murray

12 March 2003

Contents

• Kyoto Protocol history in brief

• Targets for EU countries

• Protocol ratification – are we there yet?

• How is EU doing?

• How is Ireland doing?

History

• Oct 1990 EU committed to holding 2000 CO2 emissions to 1990 levels, formalised UNFCCC June 1992

• 1997 Kyoto Protocol to UNFCCC set up to control industrialised countries’ emissions, EU responsible for 24% GHGs

• “Burden-sharing” agreement aimed at ensuring EU meets overall 8% reduction under Kyoto

• Expressed as legally binding percentage changes for each country

Targets for EU and other major players

Country Target (% change from 1990)

Country Target (% change from 1990)

Austria -13 Portugal 27

Belgium -7.5 Spain 15

Denmark -21 Sweden 4

Finland 0 UK -12.5

Germany -21 Australia 8

Greece 25 Canada -6

Ireland 13 Japan -6

Italy -6.5 New Zealand 0

Luxembourg -28 United States -7

Netherlands -6 Russian Fed 0

EU & Worldwide Targets

• What are the relative percentage contributions from each player?

Total CO2 emissions of Annex 1 parties in 1990 (part 1)

Party Emissions (Gg) Percentage

Austria 59,200 0.4

Belgium 113,405 0.8

Bulgaria 82,990 0.6

Canada 457,441 3.3

Czech Republic 169,514 1.2

Denmark 52,100 0.4

Australia 288,965 2.1

Estonia 37,797 0.3

Finland 53,900 0.4

France 366,536 2.7

Germany 1,012,443 7.4

Greece 82,100 0.6

Hungary 71,673 0.5

Total CO2 emissions of Annex 1 parties in 1990 (part 2)

Party Emissions (Gg) Percentage

Iceland 2,172 0.0

Ireland 30,719 0.2

Italy 428,941 3.1

Japan 1,173,360 8.5

Latvia 22,976 0.2

Liechtenstein 208 0.0

Luxembourge 11,343 0.1

Monaco 71 0.0

Netherlands 167,600 1.2

New Zealand 25,530 0.2

Norway 35,533 0.3

Poland 414,930 3.0

Portugal 42,148 0.3

Total CO2 emissions of Annex 1 parties in 1990 (part 3)

Party Emissions (Gg) Percentage

Romania 171,103 1.2

Russian Federation 2,388,720 17.4

Slovakia 58,278 0.4

Spain 260,654 1.9

Sweden 61,256 0.4

Switzerland 43,600 0.3

UK 584,078 4.3

United States of America 4,957,022 36.1

Total 13,728,306 100.0

Rules for Ratification

• The rules for entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol require 55 Parties to the Convention to ratify (or approve, accept, or accede to) the Protocol, including Annex I Parties accounting for 55% of that group’s carbon dioxide emissions in 1990. (See Article 25 of the Protocol)

Ratification progress

• Dec 2002 Canada made 100th ratification

• Japan and EU already ratified

• Only now requires Russian Federation to ratify to bring Protocol into force

• Australia and US have stated they will not join

If they ratify

If they ratify

Kyoto Mechanisms

• Joint Implementation – Emission Reduction Units (ERUs)

• Clean Development Mechanisms – Certified Emissions Reductions (CERs)

• Emissions Trading - Assigned Amount Units (AAUs)

• The Registry system

EU Progress

• "The situation is now that the EU is slightly less than half way towards reaching the target, with just over half of the time gone before the Protocol’s first compliance period starts in 2008.“

Domingo Jiménez-BeltránEEA Executive DirectorDec 2002

Reported Progress

• EU reached CO2 stabilisation target despite upturn in greenhouse gas emissions(reported mid-2002 for 2000 figures)

• Total CO2 emissions from the 15 EU Member States were 0.5% lower in 2000 than 10 years earlier

• However, EU emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases rose between 1999 and 2000

• CO2 accounts for around 80% of the EU’s total greenhouse gas emissions

• In 2000 total EU GHG emissions stood 3.5% below 1990 level while in 1999 they had been 3.8% lower

Total EU Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Relation to the Kyoto Target

Individual Country Progress

• How are EU members progressing individually?

Greenhouse gas emission trends and Kyoto Protocol targets for 2008-2012

Distance-to-target (DTI) for EU Member States in 2000

(Kyoto Protocol and EU burden sharing targets)

Ireland’s Target

By period 2008-20012• EU committed to reduction of 8% from 1990 levels• Ireland allowed increase of 13% from 1990 levels• “Do nothing” scenario projects increase to 37%• Already Ireland is over 29% above 1990 levels• Amongst worse three performers in Europe• Substantial penalties if target not met• Essential to arrest this continued growth and reverse

the process

Projected CO2 emissions (Green Paper)

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Transport Tertiary Industry Residential Agriculture

MTCO2E

+157% +76% +56% +19% +36%

Ireland’s target: +13% over 1990

Government Policy

• Green Paper on Sustainable Energy [1999]

• National Development Plan [2000 – 2006]

• National Climate Change Strategy [2000]

• Programme for Government [2002]

• Policy Drivers:Kyoto

Targets forRE & CHP

Market Liberalisation

Competitiveness

Security ofSupply

Environment

LIEN contribution

If LIEN members had not implemented energy saving projects;

• Energy consumption would have been 285 GWh higher in a “business as usual” scenario

• In environmental terms, this is equates to a savings of 120,000 tonnes CO2

KYOTO - FIVE YEARS ONFiona Murray

12 March 2003